Dave Pollard's environmental philosophy, creative works, business papers and essays.
In search of a better way to live and make a living, and a better understanding of how the world really works.



November 21, 2004

WEEKEND READING PART II

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 10:33
arctic melting
More essential reads from the past week.

The Politics of Victimization — Mel Gilles (via Mathew Gross via Jon Husband) reminds us that it’s OK to walk away from bullies and perpetrators of brutality of every kind. You’re not going to change them. “Even if you do everything right, theyíll hit you anyway. Look at the poor souls who voted for this nonsense. They are working for six dollars an hour if they are working at all, their children are dying overseas and suffering from lack of health care and a depleted environment and a shoddy education. And they donít even know they are being hit.” Reminder: Link to the Moving to Canada, eh? blog is on my right sidebar, with some new info.

Peace is not the Same as Justice — Znet (via Euan Semple) has the complete text of Arundhati Roy’s remarkable and long Sydney 2004 Peace Prize acceptance speech. As long as humanitarian workers strive merely for ‘human rights’ in the countries where they do their good work alongside military and political forces opposed to giving them justice, they will be viewed with suspicion and even executed as complicitous. Half a million children have lost their lives in Iraq in less than a generation, and the Western regimes that propped up Saddam for so long, and which supported and armed and financed the Shah and the Taliban and Osama bin Laden when it was convenient have just of much of their blood on their hands as the despots and terrorists themselves. “The fire and brimstone of the US election campaign was about who would make a better ‘Commander-in-Chief’ and a more effective manager of the American Empire. Democracy no longer offers voters real choice.” Roy describes the long-standing cozy relationship between Bechtel, Rumsfeld and Saddam, and the outrageous six billion dollar lawsuit GE and Bechtel have launched against the government of India when India refused to honour the fraudulent and despicable Enron ‘privatization’ contract with India (a contract GE and Bechtel have bought out). While corporatists sue Iraq for horrendous, crippling amounts ‘owed’ to them due to Saddam’s deals or Halliburton’s wildly overpriced ‘services’, the government politicos in their pockets go around lobbying for European governments to forgive Iraq’s debts to them, so that these inflated corporate accounts can be paid. Roy explains what peace means “in this savage, corporatized, militarized world” and concludes “The real tragedy is that most people in the world are trapped between the horror of a putative peace and the terror of war. Those are the two sheer cliffs we’re hemmed in by.” Riveting reading.

Live simpler, buy wisely, win a Prius — Center for a New American Dream offers great links to reducing consumption and waste and making more intelligent and conscientious consumer decisions. They also have a contest (open only to Americans, alas) to select a slogan for their campaign to convince car dealers to voluntarily improve the fuel efficiency of their vehicles, with the prize being a very energy-efficient Toyota Prius.

An Annotated Bibliography for Simpler Living — The Simple Living Network doesn’t try to condense the challenges of simple, conscientious living into a few articles or checklists. While there are some free resources on it, what it provides mainly is a comprehensive, indexed, annotated bibliography of all the books you should read and study to make this transition in your own life really happen. [Thanks to Doug Alder for the link]

Save the Alaska Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — Grist’s Amanda Griscom Little (via Salon.com) reports that Bush is determined to push through his previously-stalled ‘energy bill’ to grant billions more in subsidies to his election contributors in the energy industry, and to ravage what little wilderness his administration hasn’t already destroyed.

Free the Exit Polls — Thus far, the major media continue to refuse to release the exit polls that showed (not just in the morning, but all day long) Kerry beating Bush by substantial margins in many states that Bush ended up winning. Statistician Steven Freeman at U.Penn (via Truthout) has worked with what is available — tapes of the exit polls shown on-screen by the major networks and CNN before they were ‘corrected’ to conform to the actual election results — and concluded that the chances of the exit polls being that wrong in so many states is 250 million to one. The authors say there are only two possible explanations: Gross incompetence and deliberate bias in conducting the exit polls, or massive election fraud. Until the media cough up the exit poll ‘uncorrected’ details, we won’t know which it is. [Thanks to R. Dale Asberry for the link]

The always-amazing Tim Dolighan drew the above cartoon, that appeared today in our community paper. The toque of the deceased, for those that can’t read the small print, says ‘Scientist’.

November 20, 2004

WEEKEND READING PART I

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 13:47
bent tree
So much wonderful reading in the past week that I’ve broken it into two installments (the second will be tomorrow).

Mysterious Deaths — Journalist Ken Layne weaves a fascinating tale, enough to make a conspiracy theorist of the most skeptical mind. The connection between UFOs, Canada, anthrax and Iraq.

Culture as Anaesthetic — Jon Husband sent me an essay by Thomas de Zengatita from Harpers on The Numbing of the American Mind. The blurring of the real and the unreal, the flood of choices, the constant buffering of staggering, unimaginable events and then quickly moving on, to the point “our inner lives are now largely constituted by effects”, until we become addicted to information and novelty and the next jolt of recycled reality. “Eventually we can just wire our glands directly to a console of sensation buttons, platform to platform, and be done with this tiresome content altogether. Call it P2P communication. Talk about interactive. Thus will the human soul be compensated for the despair of finitude.” Moving on…next!

Not Thinking About Elephants — The Readers’ Digest version of George Lakoff, complete with critique, by NYT writer Adam Cohen. “Lakoff was impressed with a line from President Bush’s last State of the Union address: that we do not need a ‘permission slip’ to defend America. It reframed multilateralism, once a widely accepted foreign policy principle, as weakness.” The left needs to talk about “poison-free communities”, not conservation.

Carnival of the Capitalists — Trader Mike Seneadza hosts this week’s edition of the best writing in the blogosphere on business issues. Lots of good stuff: 32 articles on every imaginable business topic, each with an excellent one-sentence abstract so you can decide which of them to read. My best take-away: Discovering David Allen’s book Getting Things Done — as a proponent of Personal Productivity Improvement as the key to business success, and as a whiner that we all think too much and do too little, this might be a great addition to our personal toolkit. More on this when I’ve actually read it.

Should Canada Indict Bush — George Bush is visiting Canada November 30. The Toronto Star’s Thomas Walkom makes a compelling argument that under Canadian and International law he could be arrested and jailed for war crimes the moment he steps on Canadian soil. Not going to happen, but the fact it would be completely legal to do so shows how polarized our world has become.

Warren Buffett Pays His Taxes — The Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Report to Shareholders is always one of the year’s best reads. This year Buffett tears into the corporate tax system (scroll to page 6 of the link) that allows so many of the world’s most profitable (and irresponsible) corporations to pay little or no taxes. He is proud of the fact that his company pays 1/500 of the total tax revenues (corporate and individual) of the entire United States, and looks forward to paying a lot more next year. The whole report is brash, provocative and refreshing.

Picture above is from local Caledon photographer-cinematographer Chris Tammaro. It was taken last winter just a few blocks from our house.

November 19, 2004

WHY YOU CAN’T JAM THE CULTURE

Filed under: Preparing for Civilization's End — Dave Pollard @ 07:03
buynothingday
You’re doing your best. You are trying to live a life of Radical Simplicity. You boycott companies that are socially and environmentally irresponsible. Like Doc Searls and other progressive thinkers (including me), you like the culture-jamming philosophy of irreverant anti-corporatists like Naomi Klein of nologo and Kelle Lasn of Adbusters, the gang that dreamed up Buy Nothing Day (a week today, BTW).

But, now, two impudent Canadians, Joseph Heath and Andrew Potter, in their new book The Rebel Sell will tell you to your face that you’ve been coopted by the very consumer culture you thought you’d rejected. Here’s how they put it. I know this is long, but it’s a complex and important argument, so please suspend your disbelief long enough to give them a chance:

September 2003 marked a turning point in the development of Western civilization. It was the month that Adbusters magazine started accepting orders for the Black Spot Sneaker, its own signature brand of “subversive” running shoes. After that day, no rational person could possibly believe that there is any tension between “mainstream” and “alternative” culture. After that day, it became obvious to everyone that cultural rebellion, of the type epitomized by Adbusters magazine, is not a threat to the system — it is the system.

Founded in 1989, Adbusters is the flagship publication of the culture-jamming movement. In their view, society has become so thoroughly permeated with propaganda and lies, largely as a consequence of advertising, that the culture as a whole has become an enormous system of ideology — all designed to reproduce faith in “the system.” The goal of the culture jammers is quite literally to “jam” the culture, by subverting the messages used to reproduce this faith and blocking the channels through which it is propagated. This in turn is thought to have radical political consequences. In 1999, Adbusters editor Kalle Lasn argued that culture jamming “will become to our era what civil rights was to the ’60s, what feminism was to the ’70s, what environmental activism was to the ’80s.” Five years later, he’s using the Adbusters brand to flog his own trademark line of running shoes. What happened? Did Adbusters sell out?

Absolutely not. It is essential that we all see and understand this. Adbusters did not sell out, because there was nothing to sell out in the first place. Adbusters never had a revolutionary doctrine. What they had was simply a warmed-over version of the countercultural thinking that has dominated leftist politics since the ’60s. And this type of countercultural politics, far from being a revolutionary doctrine, has been one of the primary forces driving consumer capitalism for the past forty years. In other words, what we see on display in Adbusters magazine is, and always has been, the true spirit of capitalism. The episode with the running shoes just serves to prove the point.

What countercultural rebels call cooptation is in fact just competitive consumption, instigated and exacerbated by the rebels themselves. This is why rebellion of this sort has become one of the major forces driving consumer capitalism in the past 40 years. The reason the system never changes is that cultural radicalism is not genuinely radical. Mass production does not require conformity, and the capitalist system is fundamentally indifferent to grey flannel suits and biker jackets. Countercultural thinking has created a massive diversion of progressive energies into politically and economically irrelevant pursuits.

Practices such as downshifting, energy conservation, eating organic produce, and engaging in local environmental activities are pretty much useless. Countercultural thinking has reduced much of the political agenda of the left to individual consumer activism. When someone mentions “environmentalism,” most people think of recycling, conserving energy, or riding a bike. Yet these sorts of strategies just promote “the exploitation of the moral by the immoral,” by making it easier for the majority of the population to keep throwing away whatever they like, leaving their air conditioner on all summer, and driving their SUVs. The only real solutions to environmental problems are ones that are compulsory for the entire population. And that necessarily requires using the power of the state to punish those who fail to comply. Yet the left has become unduly cautious of this sort of strategy, precisely because so many feel that there is something suspicious or unhealthy about the use of state power.

Ultimately, the counterculture sees politics as a real-life version of The Matrix: it is a great winner-take-all battle between the totalizing forces of mass conformity and the revolutionary individualism of the enlightened rebels. This individualistic utopianism relies quite heavily on the idea of spontaneous harmony, which holds that social problems will all magically disappear once we achieve the necessary global transformation of consciousness. [heh, like One World, the Unconquerable World and the Support Economy - my editorial comment]. Joe and I think that, in addition to being impossible, this would be entirely unwelcome. We both agree with the argument familiar to readers of Isaiah Berlin and John Rawls that human values are irreducibly diverse, and that this pluralism with respect to conceptions of the good life is, on the whole, a positive thing.

After my initial annoyance wore off (read the full Q&A if yours still hasn’t, so you have a clear understanding of the argument they’re making), this began to resonate somewhat with:

  • some of the things I’ve been saying (like my argument that we’re not going to save the world through social changes, education or IT — we’re going to have to use other means), and
  • some of the things others have been saying (like Tom Hayden’s argument — remember him, fellow geezers? — back in 2000 that “you canít break the cycle of poverty; you canít break the cycle of violence; you canít break the cycle of corporate expansion; you canít break the cycle of the arms race; you canít break the cycle of imprisonment, if you donít break the cycle by which radicals are isolated, idealists are turned into pragmatists, and pragmatists into opportunists”) [thanks to reader bpaton for this quote].

I certainly don’t buy everything the authors say — they have a somewhat romantic view of free trade and globalization that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny — economist Herman Daly dissects their argument by explaining that while the ‘free market’ is great for resource allocation, it is hopeless at both distributive justice and optimal scale of economic production (‘free’ trade supporters assume it is the best at all three). And I also think they’re naive in believing that the inherent failings in the economic and market systems (notably the tendency to oligopoly and the tendency of the rich and powerful to protect their wealth and power by any and all means available) can be overcome by “tough negotiations” to make the market “more perfect” and the voluntary re-imposition of  “a great deal of governmental support, oversight, and regulation”. Just ain’t going to happen, guys.

Which is especially discouraging, because the authors proffer no other solutions. I have argued that we need to use a combination of methods and movements — political, legal and economic, social and educational, entrepreneurial, scientific and technological — to bring about the massive cultural change that is needed to stave off social, economic and environmental collapse by the end of this century. But everything I’ve read suggests that the political, legal and economic systems are rigged in favour of the incumbent holders of wealth and power, and are designed precisely to resist change or redistribution of that wealth and power. And now Heath and Potter are arguing, quite convincingly I think, that grassroots social, educational and entrepreneurial methods of bringing about radical change — the visions of Peter Singer’s global consensus government, Jon Schell’s ‘second world power’ (the people), and Shoshana Zuboff’s networked collaborative entrepreneurial meritocracy — are not only hopelessly idealistic and impossible, but perhaps undesirable.

That places the entire burden for pulling us back from the brink of catastrophe, on science and technology. Perhaps we should not be surprised at this. After all, the agricultural revolution that replaced hunter-gatherer culture with civilization culture was entirely achieved by radical, disruptive, unpopular new technologies (monoculture farming and animal domestication) — technologies that got traction only because of the massive hunger and scarcity brought on by the ice age and the extermination of big game. These new technologies were imposed coercively by the introduction of slave labour and ruthless hierarchy. Likewise, the horrendous and dehumanizing drudgery and efficiency of the industrial revolution’s technology — the assembly line — was only made possible by the economic and political subjugation of the vast majority by a wealthy and heartless elite, who answered workers’ political dissent with bullets. In neither case was the new technology socially or politically welcome, but it so undermined the economies of the technologies it replaced that they could no longer survive — in both cases it was ‘adapt or die’.

In the 21st century, then, we may be looking at a third, radical, gut-wrenching, unpopular, technology-driven change that will again utterly transform us from a culture on the verge of collapse to a brave and scary new one. There are a number of types of technologies to choose from — thermonuclear, optical, cybernetic, solar, biological, acoustic to name just a few. Whatever technologies we choose to power this next revolution past unsustainability (or, through inaction, allow others to choose for us) will of necessity produce a world with far fewer people consuming far less resources, which is a good thing. But these technologies will be as wildly unpopular (especially if they’re deployed in the form of weapons, which is not unlikely) as those that powered the agricultural and industrial revolutions. And they will, perforce, be involuntary, which will require either great courage or madness to impose.

Maybe it’s time, for the people’s sake, to give up on the people — the political tyrants, the scheming corporatists, and the social idealists — and find a better way to find a better way. If we can’t jam the old culture, we’ll have to use science (again) to invent and pre-seed a new one, ready to carry on when the old one crumbles under its own weight. Shudder, if you will, and then imagine that.

AFGHANISTAN UNVEILED

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 06:54
silent screamSpeaking of investigative journalism — last night I watched the PBS special Afghanistan Unveiled, part of the series The Independent Lens. The program was produced by the first generation of Afghani women journalists, most of them young women from wealthy families in Kabul. As others have reported, post-war Afghanistan is two worlds: Kabul, which is liberated, open and, if not flourishing, at least safe, and everywhere else, where the squalour, poverty and misery is unimaginable. The devastation and brutality wreaked by the Taliban was total — whole villages destroyed, whole tribes savagely exterminated. The people of Kabul hate the Taliban, but elsewhere their fearsome hold remains — women have no more rights now than they did before the war, and now they are starving, poverty-stricken and dying of diseases. Warlords, imposing strict sharia law on their subjects, routinely kidnap local women who they consider their personal property. A large proportion of the men outside Kabul are addicted to heroin, and treat the women and children abominably. The despicable chador is still required for virtually all women outside Kabul, and jobs and education for women remain forbidden. Men stand around idly all day — nothing to do except take drugs and fight. The young photographers risked life and limb to interview and surreptitiously film other women, admitting that this may have subjected their women interviewees to later beatings from the village men. There is no arable land, no industry or commerce, no functioning infrastructure in 90% of the country. The whole country outside the capital is literally dying of neglect. Drugs, guns, and crime are rampant. The international forces control only the capital, and out of fear for their own safety avoid the rest of the country.

Until the West takes the responsibility to disarm and replace the warlords, and rebuild infrastructure that was destroyed by the Western-financed Taliban, the mujahideen, and the Western bombs, the situation will remain hopeless. What a pathetic legacy we have imposed on these tragic peoples — no wonder Westerners are so despised in the Middle East.

November 18, 2004

HOW TO BE A BIOTERRORIST

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 15:10
billpatrickDoesn’t it seem strange to you that we’re seeing all this gnashing of teeth over whether Iran — an oil-rich state — is or is not developing, or hiding, nuclear weapons capability, while at the same time:
  • Osama bin Laden is still making sophisticated videotapes, now with fancy subtitles;
  • There have been no announcements from anyone about progress or even sightings of bin Laden or Mullah Omar (remember him? He was the head of the Taliban, the guy who most of us thought was worse than Saddam);
  • No credible suspect has been caught, or even investigated, for the anthrax mailings of 2001 to prominent political liberals Tom Daschle and Patrick Leahy;
  • Plans to create millions of doses of smallpox and anthrax vaccine appear to have been back-burnered (the courts have blocked the military from giving existing anthrax vaccine to the military, ruling it unsafe, and a contract for a new vaccine has been given to a bankrupt California company, but the FDA won’t even review its safety before 2007).

I’m no conspiracy theorist, and I don’t believe the US government was behind, or knew in advance about, 9/11, but it is becoming clear to me that the US government only really cares about ‘terrorism’ when the possible perpetrator is an oil-rich state. They are not interested in investing time or taxpayers’ money to address terrorist threats from poor states (like North Korea), or from stateless groups (like the myriad Arab fundamentalist sects that the government likes to lump together under the name Al Qaeda is if it were one global coordinated group), or from individuals, nor is it interested in addressing bioterror threats at all. When it comes to non-oil-state players or bioweaponry, it’s all talk and no action.

If I’m wrong about this, please point out the evidence to the contrary. If I’m right, what does this mean? Here’s some more information to digest, some of which I reported earlier in my discussion of Richard Preston’s investigative book The Demon in the Freezer:

  • There have been frequent incidents of contamination of anthrax and other bioweapons at several of the fifty government research labs in major US cities (forty more such labs are planned in cities like Atlanta and Boston — coming soon to a community near you!) that are, for unspecified purposes, developing weaponized anthrax and other bioweapons and testing them on animals. Their entire operations are now cloaked in a veil of total Patriot Act secrecy, though the name on the buildings says ‘defensive’.
  • When the anthrax scare occurred in 2001, top scientists, epidemiologists and security forces immediately wanted to know one thing above all else: was the weaponized (separated into extremely fine, airborne particles, a highly sophisticated process) anthrax used as a carrier for smallpox ? Whereas as we now know weaponized anthrax spreads very rapidly, it can be a very effective carrier for smallpox, which is much, much more contagious and lethal than anthrax. The two in combination would, according to Preston, be almost impossible to stop.
  • The U.S. destroyed almost all its smallpox vaccine in the 1970s after the disease was officially eradicated worldwide, and after the USSR (which was largely responsible for eradication of the disease in the third world) and U.S. jointly agreed to minimize and contain all remaining samples in a few locations, subject to mutual inspection and verification. They then discovered that after the collapse of the USSR large amounts of weaponized smallpox, anthrax, plague and Marburg virus went, and remain, missing. Reliable intelligence suggests many countries remain in possession of smallpox, much of it collected before the 1970s by local medical authorities for research into its eradication. Smallpox is easy to amplify (replicate), so not much is needed to create a lot. Anthrax is endemic in nature, so easy to obtain but requires industrial equipment to weaponize. One leading scientist says of Marburg virus: “Marburg virus is lethal. It only takes one to two virus particles to cause an infection of the respiratory tract. There is no vaccine. And once you contract the disease, there is only one way to go, and that’s death. So it is very scary.”
  • Immunization for smallpox is a dangerous process, since a significant proportion of the population cannot take the vaccine (e.g. those with immune deficiency or some common skin ailments), and some people immunized actually get the disease anyway.
  • Smallpox is just one of thousands of related pox diseases that affect almost every form of life on Earth. Were it not for the existence of insect poxes, for example, some insects would multiply so quickly that they would extinguish many other forms of life and unbalance the web of life in a matter of weeks before starvation could bring their numbers under control. Many forms of life on Earth are affected by more than one kind of pox, but each pox efficiently and effectively targets only one species. Since they only spread rapidly in large, homogeneous populations in close proximity, poxes are, in a real sense, the ecosystem’s natural ‘population control’ mechanism.
  • With the mapping of human DNA, it is now possible to devise poxes and other bioweapons that target only certain ethnic groups. South Africa’s apartheid regime did research to develop bioweapons that would affect only blacks, and the London Times reported in 1998 that Israel was researching a bomb that would affect only Arabs, to defend against Saddam Hussein’s alleged WMD.
  • There is a raging debate in the scientific community on whether poxes from one species can evolve over time, or be ‘repurposed’, to target another species. So even if all the smallpox remaining in the world (all of it, except the U.S. and Russian supplies, officially illegal) were somehow tracked down and eradicated, the risk could well remain. Why the U.S. and Russia have insisted on keeping samples of the disease when it is not needed to create the vaccine (the vaccine actually comes from cowpox, which is harmless, at least for now in its current state, to humans) has not been satisfactorily answered.
  • Bioweapons can be easily modified to render vaccines useless. A small group of Australian scientists introduced interleukin-3 into a poxvirus and the result was a much more virulent virus immune to all known anti-virals.
  • Dr William Patrick (pictured above, simulating the spraying of 7.5 grams (7.5 trillion spores) of anthrax, enough to quickly kill everyone in a 14-story building and travel more than a mile downwind), a retired 30-year veteran of USAMRIID, which runs bacteriological and bioweapons research in the US, appeared on PBS’s NOVA program to say that assurances from government that bioweapons would be hard for non-state-supported groups to develop were dangerous, and “to demonstrate, without a shadow of a doubt, the feasibility of biological warfare”. He’s taken the fully-functional, demonstration equipment pictured above through over 50 airports worldwide without ever being challenged. He still believes Nixon was wrong in 1969 to cease offensive bioweaponry research aimed at incapacitating an enemy and to refocus USAMRIID on defensive research. He makes this argument on humanitarian grounds — that a controlled release of bioweapons on a battlefield, with friendly troops immunized, would cause less civilian death and less property damage than any other type of warfare (makes you wonder what they’re doing in those secret labs now).
  • Bioweapons aren’t limited to toxins that kill people. At least 30 nations are currently able to produce bioweapons that could selectively kill an enemy’s livestock, poultry, other farmed animals, grains or other staple crops like potatoes. These could easily be designed, according to a Swedish study, to appear to be ‘acts of god’ — so there’d be no threat of retaliation. Knowledge of animal and plant genetics is well advanced and in the public domain. And because of genetic engineering, global biodiversity of these essential food sources has been drastically reduced over the last century, rendering them much more vulnerable to biological attack. A microbiologist at UC Davis says that agricultural biowarfare would be an extremely effective and simple way to destabilize an enemy nation, or, if covertly launched by a corporation (we all know which one he’s talking about) to destroy competing biological products, increase demand for the corporation’s product, and increase profits. And since the people of most countries view animals as mere property incapable of emotion or feeling, their slaughter is a much lower ‘moral barrier’ to cross than bioterrorist actions aimed directly at humans.

Back to what all this means. I think the consequences are staggering, and have been played down by politicians, governments, the media, the biotech and genetic manufacturing industries because it is not in their interests to raise the level of public fear when there is no simple answer, no ready attackable scapegoat, and when the actions of many of these players contribute enormously to increasing the risk of bioterrorism (or of an horrendous bioweapons accident). What goes on at USAMRIID is not a top-level state secret for nothing. And while I don’t believe the US government and its researchers are preparing anything Machiavellian, I do believe they are doing most of the work that potential bioterrorists need done, and are certainly ready to respond in kind when other bioweapons-researching states attack. Problem is, just like the Daschle antrax and the 9/11 attacks, they won’t really know who launched the attack, it probably wouldn’t be an attackable state anyway, and, if the victims are food animals or plants, they won’t even know for sure if it was an attack.

This is a genie-out-of-the-bottle problem with no easy answer. Bioweapons research, like any other military research, is as leaky as a sieve, and if you’ve studied history you’d have to be delusional to believe that anything discovered by USAMRIID will stay a secret for more than a few weeks. So a complete cessation of all bioweapons research, as well as a cessation of the HGDP (the human genome diversity project out of California, which is attempting to genetically map cultural and ethnic diversity, ostensibly to help rid the world of diseases to which certain ethnic groups seem genetically predisposed), would certainly slow down the risk of bioterrorism. But ultimately the knowledge needed to create devastating human and agricultural bioweapons with global reach, for a small amount of money with a small amount of work by a small number of people with relatively modest education and resources, will be upon us. It’s inevitable. So the answer to the implied question in the title of this article is simple: Just stick around and pay attention. If you’re so inclined, you’ll soon be able to make a name for yourself for sheer devastation that will push Osama bin Ladin, Timothy McVeigh, the Unabomber, and the Daschle anthrax mailer, into the footnotes of history. Or, if you prefer, stay incognito. All due to the double-edged swords of technology, human ingenuity and the impossibility of keeping knowledge bottled up.

You probably know I usually conclude my articles with some personal thoughts on ‘what we should do about it’. This time around I don’t know what to say. It would certainly help if only a few lunatics, rather than billions of oppressed people (and rising by leaps and bounds every day), were motivated to want to kill billions of others, even at the risk of ending the world. It would help, as well, if the most popular religions all over the planet didn’t promise an eternal afterlife, forgiveness for everything, divine intervention to save us from all calamities, and rewards for defending the faith against all others. But I might as well wish for the moon and the stars — we’re too far gone and going too fast to fix those things now. So, as unsatisfactory as it may be, I can only conclude by saying there’s really nothing that can be done. Unless something worse comes along first, it’s going to happen.

November 17, 2004

ANOTHER UPDATE ON CASSIE STROMER

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 20:11
I‘ve written a couple of times about Cassie Stromer, the Virginia woman profiled in a New Yorker article by Susan Sheehan. Cassie, after years of working until her health gave out, is no longer able to pay her $58/month Medicare premium or get her dentures repaired on her pension income. Several readers wanted to send her cheques, but were concerned that she, or her mail, could be burgled if people knew she was getting money in the mail. I’ve finally got some more information, which the author provided to the Virginia Poverty Law Center, a non-profit organization working on behalf of the state’s low-income families. Susan told them that mail to Cassie’s address (Mt. Vernon House, 8199 Tiswell Drive, Alexandria VA 22306-3286) is reliable, the home is in a well-policed area, that Cassie will only use any money sent to her for true necessities, and that Cassie’s daughter is acknowledging all checks because Cassie’s neuropathy and macular degeneration makes it too hard for her to write thank you letters.

If you’ve sent a cheque to Cassie based on my earlier article, and you haven’t received back an acknowledgment from Cassie’s daughter, please let me know (and also send a letter to the above address to that effect). Otherwise, if you’ve been holding back, it’s probably OK to send something to the above address. It sounds as if a few, but not many, readers researched the address and sent her small donations. So much for Cassie’s fifteen minutes of fame.

Wouldn’t it be a supreme irony, and an indication of how insane the system is, if the government eliminated Cassie’s rent subsidy on learning that a few New Yorker readers were sending her some money to pay for medical emergencies?

REINVENTING THE NEWS, PUTTING BLOGGERS TO WORK

Filed under: Using Weblogs and Technology — Dave Pollard @ 15:01
KVCA few years ago I gave a speech to a conference of Canadian media executives at which I told them that within a decade no one would pay for ‘factual’ news anymore. The audience was not impressed. They were rubbing their hands together in glee at the thought of being able to repackage the content from their newspapers and business magazines and news programs electronically and sell it as ‘feeds’ to large corporations. These same large corporations already paid handsomely for thousands of copies of this content in hard copy form, one for each executive desk, so now, surely, they would pay at least as much again for the same content in a different format. I told them they were in for a rude surprise.

Part of my job at the time was to negotiate for my employer the purchase of these electronic news feeds. I started out with the premise that we shouldn’t have to pay twice for the same content, and that, if we were to largely replace the hard copy with electronic feeds, we would actually be reducing the publisher’s costs (since bits cost less than paper and ink), so we should actually pay less than we were paying already. I was not a popular customer, but in the eight years since then I’ve been at least partially vindicated. To the extent companies were able to reduce their number of hard-copy subscriptions, they now pay less in total to each vendor than they did eight years ago (if they’re negotiating competently), and usually have a ‘site licence’ that allows them to distribute the content to every desktop in the organization, not just the executive suites. As Marshall McLuhan said, “Information is always trying to be free”.

I was also partially wrong. Many of the people in the executive suites are slow adopters of technology, and still demand their hard copy of the information, redundant and awkward as it is. It is true that, especially for commuters, reading hard copy is more convenient than reading off a screen. But with wireless and e-paper, that won’t be true much longer.

You can see the results of this struggle, too, on the Internet. Some newspapers and magazines initially refused to put their current editions up on the Internet unless you were a subscriber. You had to enter a subscription key. Those with such keys posted them up anonymously for other users and defeated this. Some tried to ‘embargo’ their content for a period of time — only subscribers would be able to get it right away, while those who wanted it free would have to wait until it was off the shelves, no longer ‘news’. This is the same model used by movie-makers (it’s not working for them, either, thanks to file-sharing). For newspapers, which mostly recycle and package content from news services that is available free, immediately, elsewhere, this pretty well guaranteed no visitors to their websites. I know of one local newspaper that admits that much of its online traffic comes from people looking for the obituaries — the only content it carries that is unique and highly valued. You can’t get it anywhere else.

Some magazines, like the New Yorker, tease you by putting some of their content online and directing you to the hard copy for the meatier stuff. They lessen the blow of this tease by offering some multimedia content ‘online only’, for free. Some, like Harpers, put nothing at all online (they have recently switched to the ‘embargo’ system, putting archives up after the issue comes off the shelves). Others, like Wired, have separate ‘online only’ editions that run in parallel to their hard copy editions. And others have given in and put everything up immediately, and trust that their subscribers find enough value in the magazine to buy the hard copy anyway, to photocopy and pass around and tear out the best articles and graphics, or because their readers tend to read their magazine cover-to-cover and, at least for now, hard copy is the most convenient format for doing so.

When I made my speech one member of the audience asked what they should do if my dire (and mostly correct) prediction came true. I told them they had to ‘add value’ to the content. If it was meta-tagged (indexed by subject matter) for easy online search that would be useful. An ability to link back to earlier related stories would add value, and a link to the reporter’s detailed unpublished files would be even better. But more than anything else, I told them to take the content up the value chain that I’ve  illustrated above. ‘Just the news’, the facts and data of what happened with no slant or embellishment, as journalists are taught to provide, is at the bottom of the chain. If you synthesize it, put it in context, provide the background history and the related stories that let you see the whole picture, that’s more valuable. If you analyze it and provide insight as to what it means (and that implies providing more than one point of view on what it means) that’s more valuable still. And if you advise the reader what they can do (not tell them what they should do — but identify what alternatives are available to them that might make sense to do, with the decision left to the reader) as a result of that knowledge, that’s providing the most value of all.

Let’s take an example. Here’s an excerpt of the NBC video that we’ve all seen in the past couple of days showing a US marine shooting an allegedly unarmed, injured Iraqi in a mosque:
Iraqi Shot

The picture itself is news. It’s data. You can’t argue with it. A thousand sources have attempted to turn it into information by giving us some context. Some of them are biased, others at least attempt to be objective about what we’re seeing and how it happened (I won’t get into the debate today about whether truly unbiased reporting is possible). We learn that the mosque depicted is in Fallujah, during a siege by the US against suspected militia. We learn what the Americans were saying to each other as the Iraqi was shot. We learn from the account of NBC’s Kevin Sites, a grizzled veteran of war reporting, that five wounded Iraqi fighters had been left in the mosque after Marines had fought their way into that part of the city on Friday and Saturday. Ten other Iraqis had been killed in the battle for the mosque. The wounded Iraqis were left in the mosque until a second group of Marines entered the building on Saturday, following reports that the building may have been reoccupied. Sites said that at this point one of the five Iraqis was dead and that three of the others appeared to be close to death. In his report accompanying the images, Sites said that one of the Marines noticed that one of the wounded men was still breathing before shouting that he was “faking it”. At this point, the Marine shot the Iraqi and walked away. We learn as well that the assault on Fallujah has been especially harrowing for the young Marines, who are exhausted and stressed out. Now we have a little information, just enough context to start to make sense of what happened. Enough, perhaps, to be dangerous.

On to insight, what it means. Here’s where the media start to play fast and loose with us. In the first place, they don’t really think it’s their place to tell us what it means. Sure, they have newsmagazines that will attempt this. But they’ll do it very badly. They’ll start by reiterating the facts and the limited context for this one event. There will not be time for them to recount and synthesize hundreds of similar events, and different events from the raid, so that we can see whether there’s a pattern here or just one pair of individuals acting in the intense stress of war. In fact, we probably won’t know what the real context is for this event for months, by which time the media will no longer be covering it (it will no longer be ‘news’). Instead, for the next week or so they’ll bring in pundits with diametrically opposed views on its significance. They’ll give each of them a couple of minutes to present hasty and utterly inadequate interpretations of what this news item means. One of them will quickly say that “Such images will recruit more terrorists faster than they are being killed”. Notice that it isn’t the behaviour of American troops toward Iraqis that’s being discussed here, it’s the “images”. The reporting of the news has become the news, more than the actual events! The other pundit will say that “We will only win the hearts and minds of Fallujah by ridding the city of insurgents. We’re doing that by patrolling the streets and killing the enemy. There’s no way of knowing whether the Iraqi was really injured or whether he had hidden arms. In the heat of battle you cannot take chances and there is no time for second-guessing. You do what you have to do.” [Incidentally, I'm not making these quotes up -- they're what has already been said about the incident]

And that will be the end of it. There will be no real analysis — there is no time for it, not enough facts have been accumulated to permit it, and the context provided is not nearly substantial enough for anything more than pure speculation. There will be no prescription for action at all, no alternatives laid out about what we as citizens of this planet should do as a result of this, because the show is already running over, attention spans are short, and besides there is not nearly enough quality analysis to support any prescription for action. All we can do is shake our heads and change the channel.

This is, in my opinion, irresponsible journalism, lazy, incompetent, and pandering to certain viewers’ love of sensationalism (the viewers who are more mature and reasoned in what they want have mostly given up on the mainstream media, and according to a recent poll the mainstream media command about the same amount of trust and respect from the majority of citizens as politicians and the IRS). The failure of the mainstream media to legitimately cover the news — providing proper context, analysis and insight, and suggestions for action — is a total abrogation of their responsibility to inform the American people. They say they do what they can with the data that’s available. They say they haven’t the time or resources to do more. They say the people whose eyeballs pay the bills won’t watch or read anyway. But the truth is that the media are a principal cause of the American public’s attention deficit for news. Why watch or read something if you get no true insight of what it means, and if there’s apparently nothing you can do about it anyway? And if you really want a sensational jolt, the special effects and picture quality of the latest Hollywood blockbuster are much better than the grainy shots of Abu Ghraib or the assault on Fallujah. They should be — there’s a lot more money invested in their production. It’s no wonder we’re all suffering from a feeling of learned helplessness. As I said back in January:

The delusion of danger, and the illusion that something can or has to be done, that someone — British cows, Canadian farmers, Chinese cats, Firestone, Saddam Hussein — must be brought to account in order to give us back control, is literally making us all crazy. It causes us to believe we cannot let children out of our sight even for a moment. It causes us to wildly change our diets, to avoid visiting whole countries, to fingerprint whole nations of visitors, to suspend civil liberties, to put barbed wire around our communities, to drink only bottled water, to wear masks, to introduce five levels of increasingly hysterical ‘threat’ to everyone’s safety. [and, I might add now, to re-elect the worst president in the history of the United States]

Alright, enough complaining. What should we do about it? How can we ‘reinvent the news’ so that it does provide value?

Here’s a good start. Take a look at this archive from the New Yorker. Hundreds and hundreds of pages of first-hand accounts and analysis of the Iraq war dating back to before it began. Data on what happened. Context to put the events in perspective. Analysis to provide insight into what it all means. And suggested actions on what we could do about it. This is what we should be getting in the news. Of course the mainstream media will say it costs too much and that not enough people will read it or watch it to justify that cost. It doesn’t matter. The media are licensed and given enormous public resources (spectrum allocation, cable and satellite allocation, and access to billions of eyeballs) to inform us. Not to titillate us with sensational pictures and celebrity indiscretions and leave us bewildered about what it all means and what we can do about it. They have a responsibility to inform us, more than ever today when our lack of knowledge allows those with money and power to launch wars under false pretenses, blackmail and bankrupt whole nations, and destroy our world.

In most Western countries outside the US, the governments and the people understand this. The most important (not the most popular, the most important) media in those countries are publicly owned. The BBC, Deutche Wellle, the CBC, and similar public broadcasters strive to meet this mandate. In the US, NPR and PBS do their best, but they’re horrifically underfunded and Bush would like to eliminate public funding for them entirely. There are many independent ‘alternative’ media, mostly Internet-based, that are quite well networked, but which barely have the resources to dig up basic facts, let alone provide investigation or analysis. There are tons of freelancers out there, more than ready to do whatever will put food on their table.

And then there’s us, the bloggers, the ‘million guys in pajamas’. We are becoming an extension of the independent media, capable of unearthing many more facts, at least in those areas where we live or have deep connections. But as critics have pointed out, mostly what we do is recycle the facts, both from the mainstream and independent media. We get them out to a larger audience. But we don’t have the resources, the skills or the time to provide much context, analysis, or prescriptions for action. So we, too, do what we can. When we see what we believe is a credible spin to a news item, we pass it on, notably to others who tend to believe the same things we do. Some of us have the unmitigated gall to write analyses and prescriptions for action, often based on woefully inadequate knowledge. But hey, we’re trying.

So we have mainstream media with lots of money who are squandering it on crap, and shrugging off their responsibility to inform. We have some magazines doing great investigative reporting. We have public broadcasters who are doing, mostly, an admirable job, with not enough money. We have independent media with good networks but not much else. We have freelance journalists with skills and time but who need to be paid a modest wage for their work. And we have us bloggers, who have vast numbers and great ideals and some modest writing skills and some time on our hands, but no resources. Put ‘em together and what do you have? A system where the only players with the money are disinclined to use them to inform.

So what do we do? Here’s my suggestion:

  1. Dynamic Libraries: We could create large virtual libraries of news, information and analysis by linking together in one, organized place, everything you could possibly want to know about a particular subject. I don’t like the word ‘archive’ because it connotes ‘old and outdated’, but it’s an up-to-date dynamic archive I’m proposing. Like the New Yorker Iraq file, but super-sized and better indexed. The blog is not a useful mechanism for this, because it sorts content by date and drops it off automatically after a certain period of time. Wikis might work. We need a mechanism for indexing and organizing all this content in simple, powerful ways, ways that allow us to see the context of all this stuff — search engines aren’t up to this task. We need a way to filter all the content on a particular topic by relevance, by value, using some kind of voting mechanism that allows all users to rate articles, but discounts the brief frenzy of sensational news to produce some measure of enduring value. This is a resource that everyone, even the big media, would get value from. Instead of having to go to a hundred sites following link after link, you could just go there. I’ll leave it to the librarians and the technologists to design this. I think it could be dynamite.
  2. A Network of Investigative Reporters: This would be like a giant labour exchange where anyone — mainstream journalists, freelancers, bloggers, anyone with time on their hands — would be able to post our credentials, our hourly rates, our physical locations, our areas of expertise (we all know a lot about something), and our areas of interest. So if I want to do an objective analysis of the story of jailed animal rights activist Tre Arrow, for example, I could use the exchange to find people to do the research, to interview those who like him and hate him, to interview him in prison, at rates I can afford (or even for free). Together we could move thousands of stories and events up the knowledge value chain, and, in the process, perhaps employ some people who need work to do some very satisfying work, and develop a lot of people’s critical thinking and reporting skills. And build up some superb content in the Dynamic Libraries. And get some of us bloggers off our asses and out into the communities where we can really make a difference.
  3. A Tax on the Private Media to Fund Investigative Reporting: As I have stated, I think media who use our spectrum have a responsibility to inform the public. Their shareholders, obviously, don’t agree. So what if we provide a mechanism to allow the private media to outsource this responsibility to a public foundation? Here’s how it might work: You start with some proportion, say 5%, of the gross revenues of a media company that has access to the public airwaves. You deduct from that the number of man-hours that the company invests each year in legitimate investigative reporting, times a reasonable hourly rate (including a provision for out-of-pocket costs), say $100. The proviso would be that the results of all qualifying investigative reporting would have to be posted to the Dynamic Libraries. The media would be able to make their own economic decision whether or not to actually broadcast the results, but at least it would be captured in a public archive, where, I suspect, it would provide more value than a one-time news broadcast would. Any deficiency would be paid as a tax to a public, National Foundation for Investigative Reporting, with a mandate to spend the receipts, using members of the Network of Investigative Reporters, to conduct investigations on subjects selected by an independent advisory board. The board would be elected by the members of the Network of Investigative Reporters itself, i.e. by all of us who care about being informed.

OK, that’s all I have right now. I’m still thinking the concept through. I confess it’s a bit idealistic. I’m trying to be pragmatic, allowing networks who just want to entertain to pay others to take on their responsibility to inform.  I’m trying to find a way to mobilize the incredible intelligence, energy and knowledge of a million bloggers and millions of others who care about the news and about being informed and who are currently sitting on the sidelines rehashing information when they could be producing and adding value to it. What would it take to make it really work? Pessimists who think it could never work, please keep your thoughts to yourself, at least until others have weighed in.

Oh, and bloggers offended by my description of us as ‘a million guys in pajamas’, please understand that the best way to destroy a false myth is to ridicule it from the inside. For investigative reporting fieldwork, what you’re wearing will work just fine.

November 16, 2004

A MILLION GUYS IN PAJAMAS: AN HOMAGE TO READERS

Filed under: Creative Works — Dave Pollard @ 15:25
InnFig5d
Recently I’ve been beating myself up, and beating up everyone else, for spending too much time reading, writing, thinking, rationalizing, and conversing with like minds, and not enough time actually doing anything. Meanwhile, the mainstream press has started a new and potentially deadly meme about the blogosphere: That we are ‘a million guys in pajamas‘. So please accept this as an apology of sorts, from all writers to all readers. You deserve better.

homage to readers

welcome, precious reader, without you we can’t go on:
you give us audience to think out loud, like plato’s throng.

you read to reassure yourself what you believe is true,
your frames and mental models won’t accept a different view,
and so you’ve self-selected to be part of pollard’s ‘crowd’
who dare to pose the truths that others will not say aloud.
and you indulge my clumsy prose with its despairing themes:
together, we’re community, collaborating memes –
or maybe not — we’re not so joined, don’t know each other well,
we grope with awkward language and the stories that we tell.

my blog’s a raven’s croaking in the darkness ‘fore the dawn
and when i hear your hoarse reply my heart is filled with song,
your answer says “we’re not alone, there’s hope, we’re strong, we know
together there’s a better way to live, let’s make it so:
resistance isn’t futile, trust your instincts, fly with me –
the world’s a prison, yes, but there’s still time to set us free,
our ‘civilized’ behaviour’s an illusion, don’t you see?
our prison’s locks are self-imposed, and nature holds the key!”

but wait — i think i’m losing you, you start to turn away,
i’ve gone too far, presumed too much, oh, no, won’t you please stay?
i’ve oversimplified my case, it’s really more complex –
the average reader of a blog stays only ninety secs:
the time it takes a bee to pollinate a rose and flee,
the time it takes to break a writer’s heart “oh, woe is me”.

’cause reading is much harder work than writing, i’d maintain,
so here’s to you, dear reader, please do buzz my way again.

November 15, 2004

TAPPING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL

Filed under: Working Smarter — Dave Pollard @ 15:52
Collective Wisdom Model
For the last few weeks I’ve been bouncing ideas on how to implement the principles in James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds off a variety of people in the public and private spheres. I think I’ve finally got a model that works.

For those unfamiliar with the concept of the Wisdom of Crowds, here is just a bit of what I’ve written to get you up to speed:

  • A summary of the book, and some possible applications
  • Using the Wisdom of Crowds in business — some early thoughts
  • Using the Wisdom of Crowds to power a global think-tank
  • How the Iowa Electronic Market used the Wisdom of Crowds to correctly predict the Republican election sweep
  • Why the Wisdom of Crowds doesn’t work well to find partners

Tell me what you think of this approach, which is designed to integrate a lot of diverse applications: business, social, political, economic, artistic, scientific, or technological. You have a problem to solve or a decision to make, this model will help you do it better.

Just to restate the basic principle: Many cognitive, coordination and cooperation problems are best solved by canvassing groups (the larger the better) of reasonably informed, unbiased, engaged people. The group’s answer is almost invariably much better than any individual expert’s answer, even better than the best answer of the experts in the group.

The reason for this superiority is that each individual brings to the problem some valuable unique knowledge or perspective, and any errors in that knowledge or perspective are balanced off against those of others in the group, so the collective wisdom of the group is likely to be extremely accurate, reliable, knowledgeable, and predictive. If you’re skeptical, please read the book — Surowiecki presents dozens of examples to support this thesis. The average prediction of one such group, the Iowa Electronic Market, over the several months before the election, was that Bush would win by a comfortable 3% margin and that Republicans would make gains in both houses of Congress. They were exactly right.

My ‘Collective Intelligence’ model realizes (a) that there are some things that crowds can’t do (they need to be given a problem with a discrete or quantifiable set of possible answers from which to choose), (b) that care must be taken in the ‘qualification’ of the crowd to meet Surowiecki’s conditions of nonbias (they must understand the problem, be diverse in their perspectives, independent of groupthink tendencies and each able to bring a bit of unique knowledge to the problem, and (c) that there needs to be some incentive for people to participate in the crowd (those guessing correctly the number of jelly beans in the large jar at least win the jelly beans). The diagram above reflects these three constraints. Here’s how it works, using, as an example, a company’s problem of unsatisfactory productivity:

  1. This problem cannot be put to the crowd as is. If you simply asked “How do we best solve Unproductive Inc.’s productivity problem?”, you’d get at least as many answers as you had crowd members. There’d likely be few discernible patterns, and most of the crowd, not being familiar with Unproductive Inc.’s processes and operations, wouldn’t know what they were talking about and would therefore probably be biased by hearsay they’d read in the papers or on the Internet. The problem needs to be deconstructed into its component parts, a three-stage process: (i) what are the constituent issues that comprise the problem, (ii) what are the root causes underlying each constituent issue, and (iii) what is the range of possible solutions to each root cause. For example, Unproductive’s productivity problem could break down into excessive time spent looking for information, too many people handling a single customer problem, and a host of other issues. The root causes for the ‘excessive time spent looking for information’ issue could include poor tools, poor understanding of how to use the tools, failure or inability to delegate information searches to knowledgeable intermediaries etc. These might even have further root causes underlying them. And the possible solutions for ‘poor understanding of how to use the tools’ could include online help screens, classroom training, personal productivity improvement sessions, and others. If there is doubt as to which are the most important or relevant constituent issues, or underlying root causes, the ‘crowd’ can be canvassed to help make those assessments. But you need a small intermediary body of people with good analytical and creative skills, and an understanding of the problem, to develop the alternatives, to craft the question for the crowd. I call that body the Solution Team.
  2. Suppose now the Solution Team has broken Unproductive Inc.’s problem into eight issues, which between them have fourteen root causes (some overlapping), and for which 22 alternative solutions (again, some overlapping) have been identified. The next step is to ‘qualify’ the crowd that will rank these alternative solutions. In this case, it requires some knowledge of the processes and operations of Unproductive Inc., so the crowd would be limited to (i) employees of Unproductive Inc. and (ii) customers and advisors who have a basic understanding of Unproductive’s processes and operations. I call this body the Qualified Crowd.
  3. The solution alternatives crafted by the Solution Team are presented to the Qualified Crowd. Unproductive Inc. offers a Reward Pool of $X to be distributed equally among members of the Qualified Crowd who select the Collective Answer (the one selected by the largest number of members of the Qualified Crowd) as a motivation for participation. Alternatively, they could announce that they would draw one name from the Qualified Crowd members who select the Collective Answer, and reward the entire Reward Pool to that person. They could decide to hold back a portion of the Reward Pool that would be only distributed if and when the Board of Unproductive Inc. agrees that the implemented Collective Answer actually worked. Unlike most models where the fees are set by the vendor, under this model the customer gets to decide how much they’re willing to invest in getting the Collective Answer. The greater the investment, the greater the crowd it will attract, and the more likely the Collective Answer is to be accurate.
  4. The model could even be extended to allow Unproductive Inc., if they don’t have the resources to implement the Collective Answer themselves, to ask members of the Qualified Crowd to invest in the implementation of the Collective Answer, either as members of the implementation team (who could be remunerated on an hourly basis, or, if the implementation project is set up as a separate business entity, in the form of shares in the new entity) or as passive cash investors (who could receive a predetermined return on their investment, or shares if it’s in a new entity). The key again is flexibility. The model not only solves problems, it also helps assemble the resources to implement the solution.
  5. I see Collective Wisdom, the enterprise that oversees the entire process, and which helps the customer to select the Solution Team, to construct the Qualified Crowd, and to identify and contract with implementation resource, as a very small entity, perhaps just me and a couple of very creative partners with good analytical skills (I’d subcontract the website management — the core competency of this enterprise is the management of the Solution Teams, Crowd qualification and solution implementation. And I wouldn’t propose to try to ‘sell’ Collective Wisdom’s services by advertising or through sales calls — initially, customers will be drawn by the ideas of the book to at least give it a try. Thereafter, it will all be viral marketing: Customers who get better answers at lower cost will spread the word, and members of the ‘crowd’ who make money, or perhaps even earn a living, by contributing to the Collective Wisdom solution process will spread the word faster.

Let’s look at another, simpler example. Imagineers Inc. wants to know which of a new series of thirty possible products and services they should release to the market, and how to price them.

  1. No need for a Solution Team for this problem. Imagineers Inc. already knows the solution alternatives — thirty alternative products and services, each with a possible price of from $1 to sky’s-the-limit.
  2. Almost no restrictions to the crowd in this example. If it’s a consumer product, anyone who’s motivated is Qualified. If it’s a business-to-business product, you could either limit the Qualified Crowd to those who understand the function of Imagineers’ products and services to their customers, or you could provide a website where those that wanted to participate could go to learn more about the products and services. You could have an online ‘Qualification Test’. You could even segment the Qualified Crowd into Customer and Non-Customer segments and get Collective Answers from each, using the Customer segment as a control group.
  3. The Reward Pool works the same way as in the previous example. If the pool is $50,000, you could distribute it to all the members of the Qualified Crowd who picked the Collective Answer (the product or service of the thirty that was selected by the most crowd members), or you could give the entire Reward Pool to the one person who not only picked the Collective Answer but got closest to the second Collective Answer — the optimal selling price for this product or service (the median of all the Qualified Crowd’s responses).
  4. Implementation resources (people and money) could be solicited the same way as in the first example. Imagineers Inc. could even decide to spin off an entirely new entity to sell the Collective Answer, and use the crowd to finance and staff it.
  5. The cost of mispricing a new product offering is enormous. Price too high and nobody buys. Price too low and you leave profits on the table — and customers really resent price hikes after they’ve started buying something. One happy customer who’s invested a few thousand dollars in Collective Wisdom and saved millions as a result, and you’ll have other customers lining up, just from word-of-mouth.

The model will even work on what Surowiecki calls co-operation problems, where there is some constraint that requires compromise by all, such as “What is the optimal salary distribution for our company?” All that’s needed to include such problems is to state clearly the constraints (e.g. total organization salary cannot exceed $X) and to not allow Qualified Crowd members to ‘vote’ on issues where they have a conflict of interest (e.g. each person can vote on everyone else’s salary but not on their own).

This model isn’t limited to business applications. Non-profits have productivity problems too. In fact, of the 25 problems that most often keep executives awake at night, which I reported on in an earlier post*, most of them are challenges for organizations of every type, from government departments to NGOs to charities. Although the bigger your organization the more likely the Wisdom of Crowds is to benefit your problem-solving and decision-making, even small organizations could benefit from tapping into Collective Wisdom. Here’s just a few questions that could be posed to the ‘crowd’, just to show the diversity of applications for this model:

  • Should our central bank raise interest rates next month, and by how much?
  • What is the $US going to be worth, relative to the Euro or a global currency basket, this time next year?
  • Which alternative voting system is the best (the BC government used The Wisdom of Crowds to answer this, and it worked brilliantly)?
  • What’s the best way to motivate people in the third world to have fewer children?
  • How could we break our dependence on fossil fuels within the next decade?
  • What’s the answer to eliminating popular support in many countries for terrorist attacks?
  • What solution set should our organization use for our desktop, Intranet and connectivity technology?
  • What features and functionalities should we include (and not include) in our next software or hardware release?
  • What major unforeseen risks threaten our organization and/or its customers?
  • What kind of music, literature, film, TV programming or art does the public want and think it’s not getting enough of?
  • How can we fairly reduce global disparities between rich and poor, and improve distribution mechanisms to get resources desperately needed by the poor to their destinations?

I’m pragmatic enough to be willing to have Collective Wisdom work initially on business problems, and continue to use such fee-paying applications to fund the enterprise. But in my heart what I really want this enterprise to do is the think-tank work, solving some of the world’s most intractable and pressing problems. I’m optimistic for two reasons: I think when it comes to solving global problems, a lot of people will be motivated to join the ‘crowd’ for altruistic reasons, and donate their time just to help make the world a better place. We don’t need to offer them a Reward Pool for such problems. And I don’t think the infrastructure of Collective Wisdom needs to be all that large and expensive. I think a few profitable, successful business pilots will be enough to get the process streamlined, the infrastructure paid for and the crowd assembled, so that we can start spending a chunk of time on solving global problems, for free. And although there may be some first-mover advantage here, I think the real value of Collective Wisdom will be in the creativity and analytical skill of its core staff and Solution Teams, and in the quality of its Qualified Crowds and implementation teams. It’s the people, not the technology, that will make or break it.

There are some kinds of questions that I’m ambivalent about throwing to the crowd. In the above model, it’s the Solution Team and the customer whose imagination is tapped, not the crowd’s. I’ve assumed that giving a crowd, even a Qualified Crowd, an open-ended question like “What features would you like to see in a car, which you can’t find in any car today?” would be an invitation to anarchy. You could be reading replies to such a question for months, and end up with a completely unmanageable number of ideas, so many that you’d never be able to identify the needle in the haystack that might actually pay off in a big way. But maybe I’m a pessimist. What do you think? Could we tap in not only to the Wisdom of Crowds, but to it’s creativity as well? How could we do so in a manageable way?

I think the Value Proposition for this model is compelling: Tapping into the Wisdom of Crowds with a disciplined process will reduce or eliminate the need for (and cost of) ‘expert’ consultants, academics and focus groups, while producing better decisions and solutions than those experts can offer. In the process, it can even provide manpower and investment for implementing the solutions, reducing the need for RFPs and venture capital. Business is always looking for ways to reduce cost. Not-for-profit organizations are always strapped for cash. This model works for both.

That’s what I have so far. I’m getting a lot of expressions of curious interest, including some business organizations that would be willing to test the waters. I’m copying James Surowiecki on this post to see what he thinks. I’d love to know what you think. You are my wise and qualified crowd.

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* Here are the 25 business problems, any of which could be addressed using this model:

  1. How can we improve employee productivity?
  2. How can we reduce business/credit/security risk?
  3. How can we become more innovative?
  4. Should we outsource IT, KM, HR and/or marketing?
  5. Which of these new product ideas will be successful?
  6. What price should we sell this new or old product for?
  7. How will sales/prices be affected by future innovations?
  8. How will sales be affected by inflation, int. rates etc?
  9. How will material & labour costs change in the future?
  10. How can we reduce our fixed costs & overhead?
  11. How can we increase our market or customer share?
  12. How can we (a) find or (b) keep the best people?
  13. Which acquisitions should we make, at what price?
  14. How much is our company worth?
  15. What service/community wraparounds would work?
  16. How much should we be paying staff, management?
  17. Which companies should we partner with?
  18. Which functions should we centralize, decentralize?
  19. How should we penetrate a new market/demographic?
  20. How can we increase customer satisfaction/retention?
  21. Which suppliers should we use?
  22. How can we reduce employee theft, fraud, error?
  23. Where are we paying more taxes than we have to?
  24. How should we protect our intellectual property?
  25. What new businesses should we start, or spin off?

November 14, 2004

SURVIVING TRAUMA

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 14:24
bush hugs teenagerMalcolm Gladwell loves wading into complex and controversial subjects. In the November 8 New Yorker he writes an article called Getting Over It, on the subject of surviving trauma. He uses the success of the protagonist in the 1955 novel The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit to survive a double trauma, and the failure of the protagonist in the 1994 novel In the Lake of the Woods to cope with a very similar trauma, to advance his thesis that in the past half-century there has been

…a shift in perception so profound that the US Congress could be presented with evidence of the unexpected strength and resilience of the human spirit and reject it without a single dissenting vote.

The evidence he refers to is a study in the Psychological Bulletin of long-term effects of childhood sexual abuse that concluded that, in the large majority of cases, unless it was extreme, very frequent, or accompanied by physical abuse or prolonged neglect, the long-term effect was so small as to be barely statistically significant. The report was so offensive to so many that Congress was pressured to repudiate it, and did.

My readers know I don’t place much stock in psychology, and that I prefer explanations for behaviour that are rooted in real science, or at least Darwinian principles: Actions and behaviours that increase a species’ capability to survive will be selected for, i.e. a propensity to exhibit such actions and behaviours will become more and more prevalent in the population.

I’ve argued before that depression in today’s world may be natural. I’ve also argued that when we are unhappy or grief-stricken we create stories that provide us with solace, so that our vivid imaginings can become so real that they become alternatives out of time, even to the point where ‘what might have been’ becomes to us a regrettable real possibility in the present. This prevents us from seeing this alternative reality as false, achieving closure, and moving on with our lives.

We are all living our own stories, and there is no way to see them objectively as real or unreal, true or imaginary. To us, they are absolutely true. When we suffer trauma, we may put it behind us, wrap up that chapter in our story, or we may not. When that trauma is compound — a physical and sexual and mental trauma, or one that combines actions (like abuse) and inaction to address it (like neglect or passive complicity by others), or one that is chronic or frequent, there is little doubt that it is harder to get past. In nature, a fight or flight instinct kicks in when danger threatens. Most animals in nature face death and witness death often in their lives. They escape, perhaps watching as a mate or community member or child is eaten by a predator. In any case the event is traumatic — adrenaline surges, the body goes into overdrive, some shocking event occurs or doesn’t, and the survivors are left to deal with the result. If the response of a species were to grieve for years over the loss, or over a decision error that may have cost a loved one their life, the species would not survive — it would be incapacitated. In a balanced ecosystem, these traumatic events are regular but not chronic — most species spend most of their time in the joyous activities of eating, exploring, mating, playing, sleeping, and sensing the world around them. Their failure to grieve, at least for long, is in my opinion due not to their small brains but to the fact that there is too much joy and wonder in the world to waste much time grieving over what happened or might have happened. It’s Darwinian — it happens that way because it works, it optimizes the healthy survival of the species.

As Jeffrey Masson has shown, animals with larger brains tend to grieve longer, and return to their grief over a longer period, probably because they have better memories that are triggered by sensations that remind the creature of the traumatic event. Elephants weep each time they return to the site where a loved one lost their life, for their entire lives. That is natural, but not debilitating. The grief, the trauma, does not consume them to the point where they are incapacitated by it. Only humans kill for revenge. Only humans kill large numbers of their own. Such behaviour is, on the surface, anti-Darwinian — it hurts the species rather than helping it to survive and perpetuate it. Misery is anti-Darwinian — those that live in physical or emotional misery tend to withdraw from social activities, fail to defend themselves from predators, die young from stress-related activities, and, if they’re female, become infertile. This is nature’s extreme-stress safety valve. Such misery is the consequence of over-crowding, too many competing for too few resources. As Edward Hall explains, in such circumstances (very rare before the advent of civilization) adrenaline is used to quickly thin the crowd and restore the balance with the rest of the ecosystem.

The world we live in today is horrendously overcrowded, insanely out of balance with the rest of the ecosystem, and our evolved intelligence is allowing us, at least physically for a short time, to offset all of nature’s attempts to reduce our numbers to sustainable levels. Nature evolves new diseases that exploit crowded concentrations of one species, we reply by inventing antibiotics and antiviruses. Nature drives up our levels of adrenaline to levels that provoke war, anti-social behaviour, massive depression, and we reply with technologies that sedate us or cheer us up, that imprison those who can least suppress their violent urges, and which refocus our adrenaline on activities that do not kill.

But nature always bats last in this competition of wills. I would argue that we all live, now, in a state of continuous agitation and constant anxiety, massive stress that has resulted in us all becoming mentally ill. Our whole lives are an incessant trauma — work stress, competitive stress, stress to have ‘enough stuff’, stress to be accepted by others. Our desire to find a way to try to sustain a society that is so obviously unsustainable, and to deny the damage we are doing, to ignore the massive misery that prevails in our world, to believe against overwhelming evidence that we can somehow innovate ourselves out of the horrendous mess we have created, is evidence of utter, adrenaline-crazed insanity. We are only happy in those brief delusional moments when the awareness of the utter horror that civilization has wrought is temporarily suppressed — by constant education of denial of that reality, by drugs, by sexual distraction, by media that suppress the truth, by hiding the worst atrocities behind closed doors and walls where we can try to pretend they aren’t happening.

Today, we are all struggling to survive a life-long trauma, and it is interesting to me that in the last half-century our literature and our political leaders have become much more pessimistic about our ability to do so. It is almost as if, by proclaiming that most victims of post-traumatic stress disorder and childhood sexual abuse cannot be expected to get over those traumas without enormous help and intervention from our society, we are saying to ourselves three things:

  • We instinctively know the world is a mess, and we need someone to blame to avoid taking personal responsibility for it: Sexual predators and abusers and those who commit violent crimes and war criminals and those who neglect children are convenient scapegoats. Obviously they are guilty, so why not exaggerate their impact so we can offload all our personal guilt onto them?
  • We feel better about ourselves when we see others in even worse circumstances than ours, especially when their circumstances aren’t our fault. So let’s make these victims of personal crimes super-victims, so we can feel especially sorry for them.
  • If there is a process that can help these people overcome their trauma, their grief, then perhaps it can work to make us all feel better, make all the mess that weighs so heavily on all our spirits go away.

This is tricky ground, but I think there is a lot of mass psychopathy going on here. Alternative explanations welcome, as always.

The photo above aired as the focus of a commercial for Bush in the last few days of the election campaign. I think it is brilliant, an absolute coup against all the negative advertising that dominated the campaign. It was actually taken by the girl’s father at a Bush rally. The girl’s mother was one of the victims of 9/11, killed in the attack on the twin towers. The girl is a survivor of trauma, and the impulsive hug from Bush on learning of her story is captured in the photo. It’s the only time I have seen Bush without a mask.

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