Dave Pollard's environmental philosophy, creative works, business papers and essays.
In search of a better way to live and make a living, and a better understanding of how the world really works.



September 30, 2007

Sunday Open Thread – September 30, 2007

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 10:32
US Dollar September 2007

What I’m Thinking of Writing (and Podcasting) About Soon:

The Collapse of the US Dollar: 2007-08 Scenario: I think the chart above, showing the value of the $US against a basket of other currencies, is telling us that a collapse of the dollar is imminent. It’s time to lay out the scenario for what this will mean in the year and decade ahead. No I-told-you-so gloating: there will be no winners in this.

Birth Rates Rising Again: The Population Bomb Is Still Ignited: Some new data suggests that those who think population growth will stop on its own are dreaming in technicolour.

Why We Need a Public Persona: The journey to know yourself is the first step towards understanding how the world works and becoming truly yourself, which is necessary before you can make the world a little better. As de Mello said, this journey is mostly about getting rid of the everybody-else stuff that has become attached to us as part of our social conditioning, and getting rid of this stuff is perhaps what ee cummings meant when he said the hardest thing is to be nobody-but-yourself when the world is relentlessly trying to make you everybody-else. From birth, we pick up all this everybody-else stuff that clings to us and changes us, muddies us. We are rewarded by society for doing so. I find the ‘figments of reality’ thesis helpful in this hard work — realizing that our minds are nothing more than problem-detection systems evolved by the organs of our bodies for their purposes, not ‘ours’. That ‘we’ are, each ‘one’ of us, a collective, a complicity. What makes it so hard is that becoming nobody-but-yourself opens you up to accusations of being anti-social, weird, self-preoccupied, arrogant etc. So we end up, I think, having to adopt a public persona that is, to some extent, not genuine, not ‘us’ at all. That’s hard. How can we make this public persona as thin and transparent as possible?

Why are Gas Prices So Low?: Delayed until I have some clue as to what the answer might be. This has got me stumped.

Vignettes: Coming up soon, vignette #6.

Blog-Hosted Conversations: This week I’ll be publishing my narrated, edited interview of Chris Corrigan, which I recorded earlier this week, and recording a second interview on the same subject: “What is your model of a better way to live, and what capacities do we need to develop or re-learn to live that way?” Haven’t decided who the second interviewee will be, yet.

Possible Open Thread Question:

When the price of oil has risen 40% since May, why have gasoline prices gone down?

September 29, 2007

Saturday Links for the Week – September 29, 2007

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 13:18
Water Scarcity
NYT interactive map of global water scarcity areas (brown)

A real mixed bag of interesting, thoughtful and disturbing news and information this week:

Water Scarcity Analysis: The NYT series Choking on Growth turns its attention to water. The map above shows areas of current water scarcity in brown (the darker the colour, the greater the population density). The brown area is exploding, as, for example, China’s water table is falling by as much as 18 feet per year due to soaring demands of population, agriculture and industry. With glacier melts, the whole West half of North America will be added to the brown area within a couple of decades. Note that most deserts are not shown in brown, because there are no demands for water there — people have adapted to geographic reality. Not so in the rest of the world.

Preparing for Emergencies the Wrong Way: A great thread in the FluWiki explains that top-down institutional plans for emergencies (as we saw with Katrina) will inevitably fail. Social and environmental phenomena like health and natural disasters are complex phenomena, and simplistic solutions cannot work because it is impossible to predict the severity, locations or public reactions to them. Only community-based, bottom-up, self-managed approaches that involve, self-educate and rehearse reactions to such emergencies will work. What is urgently needed, the wiki’s healthcare experts tell us, are experts who will say this to the ‘leaders’ who still rely on these unworkable and expensive top-down ‘plans’, and to the media who are not listening either.

Why Most Americans Will Never Get Decent Health Care: The US Green Party has, justifiably, called the Clinton and Obama healthcare compromise plans a fraud, since they propose to subsidize the powerful HMO and insurance industries for the costs of expanding limited coverage to those who cannot now afford it. Such a plan, in addition to giving these private organizations a windfall from the US taxpayer, would be financially extravagant and provide only rudimentary coverage to the poor. Even this pathetic compromise will never pass anyway because, as any student of previous attempts to get universal healthcare plans approved can tell you, the US political system (which would require strong and courageous support for such a scheme from the House and Senate) won’t let it happen. Only Kucinich and the Greens support equitable universal single-payer healthcare. Won’t happen in our lifetime.

Free Software of the Day: Giveaway of the Day lets you download commercial software free. Each offer lasts one day, so you have to visit often, but this is much better than ‘trial’ versions that expire. Includes ratings by people who downloaded each giveaway.

US Bar Association Refuses to Be Associated With Guantanamo Kangaroo Court Trials: Claiming that lack of habeus corpus rights makes the trials a sham, the ABA won’t offer legal aid to defendants.

Buy Less, Buy Local, Pay More: That’s what it will take to move our economy to sustainability, and we should be proud, not embarrassed, to do so. Dave Smith explains why more is less and less is more. He also summarizes Thomas Berry’s Seventeen Rules for Sustainable Community, and explains that “small-scale, decentralized communities designed around permaculture principles, local and regional economies, smart management of local natural resources, local community government, passive solar and renewable energy systems, are all transitions that make common sense, going from living lifestyles to living real lives with meaningful purpose.”

FCC Fines “Fake News” For First Time: PRWatch, one of the excellent sites of the Center for Media and Democracy, reports that, for the first time, the US FCC has fined a broadcaster, Comcast, a small amount ($4000) for broadcasting a video news release (a packaged video created by a commercial, political, front or lobby group) as if it were “real news”. It’s a start. But also from PRWatch, a report card shows that Patrick Moore’s paid pro-nuclear propaganda is still being covered by the Canadian media as the viewpoint of legitimate, independent environmentalists. Like their US counterparts, the mainstream Canadian media just believe and report verbatim everything they hear from corporatists — no research, no fact-checking. Disgraceful.

Thought for the Week: Two quotes from Anthony de Mello via Eric Lilius:

First, realize that you are surrounded by prison walls, that your mind has gone to sleep. It does not even occur to most people to see this, so they live and die as prison inmates. Most people end up being conformists; they adapt to prison life. A few become reformers; they fight for better living conditions in the prison, better lighting, better ventilation. Hardly anyone becomes a rebel, a revolutionary who breaks down the prison walls. You can only be a revolutionary when you see the prison walls in the first place.

When asked what he did for his disciples, the Master said, “What a sculptor does for the statue of a tiger: He takes a block of marble and pounds away at anything that doesn’t look like a tiger.” When his disciples later asked what exactly he meant, the Master said, “My task is to hammer away at everything that isn’t you — every thought, feeling, attitude,compulsion that adheres to you from your culture and your past.

September 27, 2007

Introducing Social Networking Tools and Social Networking Analysis to Business: What To Do

Filed under: Using Weblogs and Technology — Dave Pollard @ 19:21
tipping pointI attended a meeting yesterday of a self-managed KM group facilitated by the Conference Board of Canada. The subject was Social Networking in Business, and we talked about the tools in general, and social network analysis in particular. Here’s what I learned:

Criteria to Use to Determine Which Social Networking Tools to Introduce, and How (in approximate order of importance):

  • The tool must meet an acknowledged and urgent or important need (there should be no necessity to ’sell’ users on it)
  • It must be simple and intuitive to use (there should be no necessity to train people to use it)
  • It must be available to everyone, including those outside the organization (not just an elite group)
  • It must be relatively inexpensive to introduce, support and maintain
  • It must be reliable
  • It must start with a small-scale experiment, with a ‘champion’
  • It must simply ‘work around’ excessive organizational security without posing a serious security risk
  • Its use should be encouraged, supported, appreciated, funded and rewarded by management
  • There should not be too many tools with the same functionality
  • It should enable transfer of advice, not just information
  • It should appeal to the different generations using it
  • If its use is project-specific, it should be simple to archive it or take it down when the project ends
  • Some applications require a ‘critical mass’ of users
  • It would be better if it didn’t duplicate functionality of an existing ‘legacy’ application in the organization
  • It would be better if its availability was useful to the organization in recruiting
  • It would be better if it worked on portable technologies

Which Tools Participating Organizations Were Planning to Introduce (by type, using the typology of my earlier post on social networking tools):

  • People-Connector Tools: People-finders, social network mapping, proximity locators, affinity detectors: Lots of curiosity but no plans for use of new tools of these types. Good old-fashioned directories of expertise are still sought, and still elusive to create and maintain — the challenge is automating collection and maintenance of as much of the data as possible, and motivating people to self-maintain the rest.
  • Social Publishing: Blogs, podcasts, social bookmarkers, photo journals, memediggers, product evaluators, personal diaries (FaceBook etc.): Again, lots of curiosity but no plans for use of new tools of these types. Using blogs accessible only within organizations was considered by some to be self-defeating. Most organizations assumed their people just didn’t have time to keep or read blogs. In some organizations, social bookmarkers are used by librarians to create linked lists on subjects of interest to professionals.
  • Wikis: Tried, with varying success, mostly by small groups already familiar with wikis, for projects with a sense of urgency and a short life. Not much appetite for using them beyond that.
  • Discussion Forums, Commercial Collaboration Tools: Tried by most, almost always unsuccessful. “Solutions in search of a problem”, and the collaboration tools were too complicated. The new Lotus Connections seems to be encountering the same problems and same resistance from users.
  • Mindmaps: Used by quite a few organizations, but not really as a social networking tool.
  • VoIP, Virtual Presence: Some use of Skype, many users of various desktop videoconferencing tools, mostly quite successfully. The most interesting one was called ePresence, an open source software that is free (you provide the server; they host a public directory of e-presentations) and can be used for small-group desktop videoconferencing and for broadcast videoconferences.
  • Peer Production, Open Space: Not used by any of the participants at this session.
  • Virtual Reality/Gaming: A couple of ’showcase’ applications of Second Life.
  • IM: Not sure if it qualifies as a social networking tool, but most participants used IM and found it very successful in some communities.
  • Electronic Discovery: One participant used an application (Trampoline SONAR) that draws real-time network visualizations of the relationships of various types of data.

Value of Social Networking Analysis:

Patti Anklam skilfully took us through the history and basics of analysis, including the most popular tools (like Valdis Krebs’ Inflow) and the analytical methodology (largely developed by Rob Cross and his colleagues, which I explained in this earlier post). My friend Ted Graham took us through a case study of his organization’s use of one such tool, and while it was very interesting, I remain unconvinced that this analysis is likely to be worth the significant time and cost needed to do it properly. My takeaways on social networking analysis were therefore:

  • If you’re going to develop social network maps, do it to understand the reason why the de facto networks are the way they are, not to try to change them. You can’t coerce or bribe people to network with people they aren’t inclined to network with. The best you can do is work around the disconnects. And understand how others work around organizational problems and obstacles, and that sometimes the maps can help you understand these workarounds — why the organization is nothing like what the organization chart suggests.
  • These maps are severely limited by the fact they only map relationships within the organization. Some people who are intensely connected to customers might therefore appear ‘disconnected’ on the maps when they are anything but.
  • These maps can also be easily ‘gamed’ by people with agendas, biases or personality conflicts. Those who refuse to participate in the mapping organization (often because they are too busy, or because they feel, with some justification, that it’s an unnecessary invasion of privacy) can also seriously distort the map results. 
  • The maps, flawed as they are, are visually attractive and draw you into analyzing what they mean. For getting resources for KM, they therefore have substantial PR value.
  • I really liked two of Patti’s points: That work today is so complex that no one can do any significant task alone, so networks are essential to one’s work productivity and functionality; and that we are all in networks of one kind or another, all the time.

A ‘wow’ moment from Ted: The first year e-mail became really substantially used in business was 1998. It’s only been around as mainstream technology for a decade. And already Generation Millennium are abandoning it in favour of newertechnologies for everything except “communications with The Man”.

An interesting event. Thanks to the organizers, hosts and participants.

September 26, 2007

Being Spun

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 21:42
ahmadinejadLast evening I watched Charlie Rose’s PBS interview of Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

What struck me was how much his style of communication mimicked that of GW Bush. The same attempt to conceal bald lies with swagger and squinty smile and smirk. The same transparent insincerity obvious when you look in their eyes. The same propensity to stick fiercely to rehearsed ‘talking points’ and refuse to answer any question for which they have no rehearsed answer.

Both of them are blatant propagandists — their choice of words, the use of slogans, the constant repetition of expressions with distorted meanings and disinformation, the deliberate appeal to base emotion, to the point listeners are no longer interested in or prepared to listen to reason.

What astonished me was the utter inability of Charlie Rose, who has access to exceptional research resources and is himself extremely bright and well-prepared, to handle the brash and clever Ahmadinejad. A friend of mine at the CBC, Ira Basen, has studied this phenomenon extensively. He has explained how politicians, with the help of their wealthy supporters, PR/media whores and other spin doctors, have effectively abolished open press conferences and other unrehearsed opportunities for media dialogue, and replaced them with scripted ‘production numbers’, often with visually appealing backdrops or stunts, designed purely to misinform and obfuscate, and ti reiterate the carefully-crafted ‘talking points’ and Orwellian slogans. In other words, to turn them into pure propaganda events, like the infamous Bush photo-ops.

Bush and Canadian PM Harper, right-wing birds of a feather highly distrustful of a media that might reveal the truth behind their orchestrated disinformation campaigns, are practiced experts at this type of production. We just learned that Harper’s ultra-conservative military cohorts script-wrote the speech that Afghan President Karzai mouthed last year during his visit to Canada.

The mainstream media are just putty in these propagandists’ hands. What would it take for them, if they were so inclined, to restore some of the integrity and balance to the reporting process it once had? My suggestions:

  1. Insist that the ’stage’ be shared with someone with opposing views. The problem with this is that you can end up with two propagandists just talking past each other and trying to shout each other down. The media don’t like this because it makes their job of ‘dumbing down’ the news more difficult, and belies the presumption that their coverage is somehow accurate and factual.
  2. Be rude. If the propagandist doesn’t answer the question, interrupt the rehearsed speech and keep asking the question until the propagandist either answers it or demonstrates they are incapable of doing so honestly. Don’t let them change the subject. Argue with them. Call them a liar and confront them with the facts. Don’t let their managers manage your interview and program.
  3. Refuse to cover ‘managed’ events. Make it clear you won’t be anyone’s mouthpiece. Be faithful to the principles of the fourth estate.
  4. Do investigative journalism. When you find and report news that no one else has, you cease to be dependent on the staged press conferences that your competition lets pass for ‘news’.

This would take courage. As Bill Maher has said, “the job of the media is to make what’s important interesting”. You can’t do this with mindless regurgitations of pre-packaged propaganda productions manufactured by vested interests. You can’t do it with CNN-style blather about the minutiae of what various people think these productions mean, or should mean. Just because the mainstream media show up in droves to cover it, doesn’t make it news.

I’m not optimistic that any of the mainstream media will do any of these four steps. If public broadcasters can’t seem to handle the propagandists, we can hardly expect the mainstream media outlets in the corporatists’ pay and thrall to do so. It’s too controversial and too expensive for their tastes or risk appetites.

So we’ll have to continue to depend on the indymedia for real news. Unfortunately, that means that we’ll almost never see interviews with the rich and the powerful, or those with something to hide. But if these interviews are mostly just disguised propaganda anyways, perhapsthat’s just as well.

PS: The CBC, in addition to running Ira’s series on Spin, has done some excellent investigative reporting (check out this startling hidden-cam expose of doctors’ failure to follow basic hygiene in hospitals, despite knowing this causes thousands of deaths) — but their focus seems to be on everything except political parties’ and leaders’ misdeeds and lies. Too risky for publicly-funded media to be seen as taking sides, I guess.

Category: The Media

September 25, 2007

Learning to Podcast

Filed under: Using Weblogs and Technology — Dave Pollard @ 21:02
podcastLater this week, I’ll be posting my first podcast, an interview with Chris Corrigan, Open Space guru and author of the Parking Lot blog. Chris is a conversationalist extraordinaire, so interviewing him was a piece of cake — future interviews will be tougher and need more research and planning.

Nevertheless, the brief time I spent in this first interview produced some learning and insights I had not expected. For a start, I learned that you have to know the objective of your podcast/interview before you begin. My podcasts have the same ultimate objective as my blog posts: to help readers better understand how the world really works, and to provide ideas on better ways to live and make a living.

To achieve this in my podcasts, I will basically have to throw away my interview ’script’ and instead research my interviewees sufficiently to know what learning and ideas I want the interview to bring out.

This is a lot more than just throwing out open questions — it means you have to know the interviewee’s answers before you ask the questions. The interview just facilitates the emergence and articulation of ideas to the point that, as I’ve written before, the interviewer’s questions and voice can be omitted from the podcast without any loss of cohesion or clarity — you just listen to one person, the interviewee, conveying unhesitatingly the ideas and information. A form of conversational minimalism, if you will.

I could have done this with Chris’ interview. Because he’s so skilled, I didn’t need or want to say much beyond getting him started with one broad question.

I’ve tentatively decided, however, to take another approach, at least for this first podcast. What I’m going to do is essentially write, and then read, a blog post about my interview with Chris, with Chris’ voice and comments, edited down, interspersed. This will allow me to add my own, measured, thoughts to Chris’, and to elaborate a bit on what I think he’s getting at, in my own words.

The result, I suppose, will be, as Chris put it, a bit like a CBC Ideas program — a narrated interview.

I don’t know that I’ll be able to sustain this — it may be more work than I have time to invest once a week. But it will be fun to ‘produce’ a two-person exposition, crafted one person at a time and then ‘mixed’.

Three other things I learned from this first podcast production experience:

  1. Test the technology first. For some reason Pamela (the recording software) stopped recording every 60 seconds, so Chris was interrupted once a minute with another “this call is being recorded” message. Man is he patient!
  2. When you’re recording a call, you listen completely differently (and more intently). Suddenly, the conversation’s for your audience, not for you. Great exercise for interrupters and thinkers-ahead like me. When you start letting people finish talking, you learn more, and you let the conversation go in directions that open your thinking up. It’s astonishing, and humbling.
  3. Conversation is, at its best, collaboration. When I tore up the script and started following Chris’ comments with “Yes, and…” sentences, we went suddenly from exposition to revelation. Breakthrough ideas (you’ll have to wait for the podcastto hear what they were).

Podcast and transcript will be posted in a few days, once the editing and narration are done. Thanks Chris!

September 24, 2007

Rediscovering Our Natural Selves

Filed under: Preparing for Civilization's End — Dave Pollard @ 22:55
Sophie Sheppard
What we think of as ‘us’, headquartered in our minds, is merely a complicity of our bodies’ invention, a figment of reality. In reality our minds are the battleground between our bodies’ organs, which invented and co-evolved our minds as their problem detection system, and our society, which seeks to co-opt our minds to (as ee cummings put it) “make us everybody else” as part of a collective army to fight that society’s imagined enemies. In the sense we have come to conceive of ourselves, there is no ‘us’.

I am coming to believe that our bodies’ organs co-evolved our minds for a purpose other than their immediate and selfish self-protection. The second purpose of our minds, I think, is self-restraint. Why? Because self-restraint of creatures with exceptional capacity to influence their ecosystem is essential to the health of that ecosystem, and hence to the health of all creatures within it. Most creatures do not need self-restraint because, at their worst, they can do little to perturb the balance of life. But larger, fiercer, smarter creatures can wreak havoc, so their minds (in the collective interest of all-life-on-Earth) should inevitably have evolved self-restraint as a critical characteristic and determinant of decision-making.

Most of who ‘we’ are continues to be the autonomous processes of our bodies’ organs, and the subconscious realizations that we call ‘instinct’. Our conscious thoughts comprise a tiny proportion of our information activities. So what happened to us that we now equate ourselves with our conscious thoughts, and even believe we have an identity, a consciousness, that transcends our body entirely, and even defines reality? Some would have us believe it is our abstract consciousness, our ability to conceive, that ‘makes’ the world — that there is no reality without consciousness. (This belief reminds me of the equally arrogant belief of religious fanatics that the world was created six thousand years ago by a superhuman. It defies all credibility. But whatever gets you through the night, I guess.)

Most creatures exercise self-restraint, a manifestation of a humility that appreciates and realizes that the delicate balance of nature that has evolved over billions of years is the best model of sustainability, the best way to live. They ‘voluntarily’ reduce their birth numbers to keep them in balance with the rest of their ecosystem. This remarkable phenomenon seems to arise as a result of hormonal changes that respond to overcrowding and other stresses, changes that indicate a collective awareness. Only if that fails do nature’s other remedies kick in — increases in other predators, disease, and, as a last resort, aggression and violence leading to rising death rates.

I believe we had this same self-restraint, until, as an unexpected consequence of our sophisticated brains, we invented civilization, and its artifacts, including the suppression of our ‘natural’ self-restraint. “To be nobody else” is indeed, as cummings said, “the hardest battle”, and it requires that we rediscover our instinctive self-restraint, become truly natural creatures again, each one of us, alone, and free ourselves from the slavery and propaganda that our society, with the best of intentions, has imposed on us. We have lost that humility, that self-restraint. We have become disconnected from all-life-on-Earth so that we no longer sense that we are devastating the planet, that our way of living is unsustainable. Why?

My theory is that it began with either the ice ages, or with the rapid extinction of large mammals that followed our invention of spears and arrowheads. Suddenly, what had been a life of astonishing and continuous abundance became a world of great scarcity. That scarcity bred fear. That fear (in an autonomous process that Hall has shown occurs precisely the same way in mice) produces murderous violence, which in turn precipitates mental illness, trauma, shutdown, suicide, and vulnerability.

At about the time of this collective mental breakdown, we also invented, perhaps as a means of trying to manage social disorder, abstract human language, a tool that enabled the invention and dissemination of propaganda: Once we learned to communicate accurately, we quickly learned the advantage of lying.

The combination of emotional illness and psychological vulnerability, and propaganda exploiting this weakness produced, I would theorize, four phenomena that exemplify our modern society: groupthink (”becoming everybody else”). frenetic behaviour (inability to pay attention), disconnection, and dependence (on others higher in a hierarchy). A very sad, unhealthy, destructive and unnatural way to live.

If this is the case, what would we need to do to become our natural selves again? To stop being “everybody else”? To regain that humility and self-restraint?

It would be difficult, even more difficult than cummings suggested. We would have to deny all the conventional wisdom that we are taught from birth. We would have to live simpler, in order to re-become self-sufficient. We’d have to shut off the noise and propaganda that bombards our every waking moment. We’d have to refocus on the simple joys of life: eating, sleeping, loving, playing, and spend less time doing things that rely on others, people we don’t know. We’d have to talk less, and talk about what’s important. In place of the inane chatter we’d spend time reconnecting with our senses, our bodies, our instincts, and the natural world. We’d have to stop living the dread-ful life inside our heads and start living as part of all-life-on-Earth, in the astonishing, joyful, real world. We’d have to stop living in clock time and start living in Now Time.

We’d have to re-become simply who we are: A collection of organs amazingly complicit in realizing their collective success and happiness, inventing and reinventing and succeeding ourselves, connecting with love and without restraint, instinctively, under the spell of the sensuous.

Could we even do this? I think it’s possible. I think artists are, by nature, closer to this simple, open, vulnerable, natural, truthful way of living. We have a billion models — the wild creatures all around us, and the children, not yet disconnected and damaged and beaten into submission. They are showing us the way.

Painting above by painter and environmentalist Sophie Sheppard, auctioned in1999 at the Authors Unite in Defense of Mother Earth festival.

September 23, 2007

Sunday Open Thread – September 23, 2007

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 11:12
US Gas Prices
Chart by Stuart at Random Useless Info.
For the previous 30 years, 1950-1979, price was steady at about $0.30 – 0.40/gallon before spiking near the end of the 1970s.


What I’m thinking about, and planning on writing (and podcasting) about soon:


Figments of Reality: What we think of as ‘us’, headquartered in our minds, is merely a complicity, a figment of reality. In reality our minds are the battleground between our bodies’ organs, which invented and co-evolved our minds as their problem detection system, and our society, which seeks to co-opt our minds to (as ee cummings put it) “make us everybody else” as part of a collective army to fight that society’s imagined enemies. There is no ‘us’. Yet what ‘we’ can do is referee the battle, take sides. I am coming to believe that our bodies’ organs co-evolved our minds for a purpose other than their immediate selfish self-protection. The second purpose of our minds, I think, is self-restraint. Why? Because self-restraint of creatures with exceptional capacity to influence their ecosystem is essential to the health of that ecosystem, and hence to the interest of all creatures within it. Most creatures do not need self-restraint because, at their worst, they can do little to perturb the balance of life. But larger, fiercer, smarter creatures can wreak havoc, so their minds (in the collective interest of all-life-on-Earth) should inevitably have evolved self-restraint as a critical characteristic and determinant of decision-making. Most mammals clearly exhibit this self-restraint (they ‘voluntarily’ reduce their numbers to keep them in balance with the rest of their ecosystem). I believe we did too, until, as an unexpected consequence of our sophisticated brains, we invented civilization, and its artifacts, including the suppression of our ‘natural’ self-restraint. “To be nobody else” is indeed, as cummings said, “the hardest battle”, and it requires that we rediscover our instinctive self-restraint, become truly natural creatures again, each one of us, alone, and free ourselves from the slavery and propaganda that our society, with the best of intentions, has imposed on us.

Why Are Gas Prices So Low?: Since May, crude oil prices have jumped from $60/bbl to $83/bbl. In the past, when crude oil prices have risen, gasoline prices at the pump have risen faster. But, as the chart above shows, the recent run-up of oil prices has been accompanied by a drop in gasoline prices. Why is that? As the regression chart below shows, gasoline should now be selling at close to $6/gallon. But it’s selling at about half that level. How can oil companies suddenly afford to sell gasoline that is costing them 40% more at a lower price? (BTW Canadian prices have been tracking US prices; price today is $.97/litre or $3.67/gallon with the Canadian and US dollars at par; in May it was, currency-adjusted, $1.12/litre or $4.25/gallon)

US Gas Price vs Oil Price

Vignettes: Coming up soon, vignette #6.

Blog-Hosted Conversations: Delayed one more week. So starting this week, this blog will feature 30-minute conversations, initially on the subject of “What is your model of a better way to live, and what capacities do we need to develop or re-learn to live that way?”

Possible Open Thread Question:

If gasoline prices suddenly doubled, by what percentage would you, realistically, reduce your consumption?

September 22, 2007

Saturday Links for the Week – September 22, 2007

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 15:31
US Dollar Sep-07
The Wisdom of Crowds?: Chart shows value of US Dollar versus a basket of other currencies. With unrepayable government, corporate and personal debt levels, high vulnerability to interest rates, dependence on China’s ever-fragile and reckless economy, and dependence on cheap oil, the market is beginning to realize that the US dollar is essentially worthless. Only psychology and fear are keeping it from crashing, and plunging the world into an horrific recession. What is bizarre is that (like in 1929?) the stock market is at record highs.
 
Two Signs That We’re Heading For a Wall:
  1. Staking Claims for Future Resource Wars: The invasion of the Middle East over oil is just the most obvious sign that countries are starting to realize that huge scarcities of resources are looming, and hence starting to stake claims for what little is left. Both the US and Russia have put Canada on notice that they do not recognize Canadian sovereignty over Canada’s oil- and water-rich Arctic. And now, the UK has announced it it claiming vast areas around its distant islands as well. 
  2. Anti-Immigrant Movements Going Mainstream: Even US Democrats (and right-wing French government officials) are realizing it is politically wise to tap fierce anti-immigrant sentiment in their countries. When resources (land, minerals, oil, forests, jobs) get scarce, the last ones into the country become convenient scapegoats for the fear of not having enough.

Other News of the Week:

  • Investment and Environmental Groups Petition SEC for Global Warming Disclosures: It is becoming clearer that denial of global warming will no longer pass muster even in corporate boardrooms. Investors fear that irresponsible corporations will ultimately suffer economic consequences for their environmental negligence and shrugging off assessing the risks that global warming poses to profitability. So these investors want those corporations to own up now, so that they can determine whether they are good investments. 
  • Hydro-Quebec Facing More Criticism Over Devastating Dam Plans: The government-owned corporation, which has already destroyed much of the Northern half of the province to generate cheap electricity for export to the US, now plans yet another mega-project.
  • Democratic Party Embarrasses Itself By Voting Against Free Speech: Half of the Democratic Party’s senators voted with the Republicans to censure MoveOn for a very restrained ad criticizing dishonest Bush lackey General Petraeus. The party has lost all credibility, and it’s increasingly clear that the US’s two-party hegemony is completely alienated from the people. Another black day for democracy there.
  • Blackwater Private Militias ‘Banned’ From Iraq: Oh, never mind, it seems that the ‘democratically elected’ government of Iraq has no authority to sanction the occupying nation’s private militias when they kill civilians who get in their way.
  • Irresponsible US Lending Crisis Poised to Worsen: As long as the US remains with no usury or predatory lending laws (another consequence of ‘deregulation’), the temptation that led to the crisis will just be endlessly repeated. With its bailout of the criminal lenders and the irresponsible lowering of interest rates for corporate borrowers, the Fed is actually encouraging this. Now that borrowers are squeezed on mortgage borrowing (as house prices continue to fall), credit card borrowings, at interest rates as high as 32%, have skyrocketed, which will lead to a new surge of consumer bankruptcies and yet another round of collapses of irresponsible lenders, this time credit card issuers and their gullible financial backers.

Thought for the Week:

Celebrating Small Defeats: While the news above (and most of the news) should be enough to convince you that we aren’t going to save the world through reforms to the existing political, economic and other systems, some of us need to continue to valiantly fight the losing battle, to buy us more time to create new models to replace the old dysfunctional systems. I’ve written before about NRDC and the Suzuki Foundation, among others, that do this important work. This week I met some of the brave people at Friends of the Earth, who have sued the Canadian government for flagrantly breaking the law by not living up to its Kyoto commitments. I also heard from Oceana, an organization that is waging a similar fight for protection of the sea, including international waters that no government takes responsibility for. What extraordinary courage it must take to take the fight to governments who believe themselves above their own laws! I salute these remarkable organizations and the vital work they aredoing. Please support them any way you can.

September 20, 2007

How Risk, Responsibility, Sustainability and Resilience are Interconnected

Filed under: Preparing for Civilization's End — Dave Pollard @ 21:35
Marsh Survey
I‘ve spent a fair bit of time recently talking with some Canadian business leaders about what’s keeping them awake at night. I’ve been pleasantly surprised at their social and environmental consciousness. I had expected I would have to persuade them that failure to be aware of social and environmental issues would expose their companies to business and financial risk. I didn’t. They have families who reinforce their responsibility to future generations. They are well-read, and most of them know that climate change and other social and environmental threats are real.

What’s more, they know that even if they were to try to ignore these risks, they would be squeezed by two groups who would punish them for doing so: Investors, who are increasingly concerned about the ethical conduct of the companies they invest in, and customers, who are increasingly willing to boycott irresponsible companies and favour responsible ones.

For most, then, the right thing to do as a citizen of their community and the world, and the right thing to do as a business decision-maker, are one and the same. So why are so many businesses, including many Canadian businesses, still part of the problem instead of part of the solution?

For the most socially and environmentally irresponsible companies, like ExxonMobil, the cost of coming clean is just too great. Such ugly corporate citizens use a variety of tactics to obfuscate their wrongdoing and scare off anyone who would dare hold them to account:

  • Spending massive amounts of ill-gotten gains on greenwashing ads and fraudulent PR campaigns
  • Funding and promoting phony Lomborgian ‘junk science’ research and setting up phony ‘citizen’ websites attacking their critics
  • Threatening critics and victims with massive countersuits if they dare sue them for their misdeeds
  • Paying for politicians to pass laws protecting them and deregulating their industries, and regulators and enforcers not to enforce what weak laws remain
  • Forming oligopolies with other massive reprobate corporations, so customers have no choice but to buy from one of them

For the majority of corporations though, the issue is one of ignorance, not malice or deliberate negligence. Like the majority of citizens, the majority of companies don’t know what harm they’re doing, don’t know that there are more responsible ways to operate without hurting the bottom line, don’t know that their practices are utterly unsustainable.

For them, it makes sense to bring the discussion back to risks. The chart above shows what large corporate executives in the US think is the probability and consequence of a variety of risks. For the most part, they think social and environmental risks have a low probability of occurring, but would have serious consequences if they occurred.

On the chart below, these risks are mostly perceived to fall in the lower right box, the ones executives (and individuals) tend to keep a watch on, but, because they are seen as longer-term risks unlikely to occur, not otherwise acted upon. They include these risks:

  • the risk that oil prices will rise to, say, $160/bbl and stay there (remember that most of our food and all plastics depend on cheap oil; it’s not just transportation that would be affected)
  • the risk of significant water rationing being needed, permanently
  • the risk that the Chinese economy will collapse (and with it, cheap labour), resulting in a famine and humanitarian crisis for over a billion people
  • the risk that reckless lending/borrowing and other factors will make the US dollar relatively worthless, and hence bankrupt the US treasury
  • the risk that a global flu pandemic or bioterrorist attack, even if it only kills a few million people, brings the economy to a near complete halt for eighteen months or more
  • the risk that Middle East instability leads to a decade-long regional war involving nuclear weaponry
  • the risk that the current debt crisis will spiral into a major recession as discretionary consumer spending drops by 50%
  • the risk that (as is now happening in India) artificially low borrowing rates boomerang to produce an interest rate spike to double digits
  • the risk that global warming will produce global desertification, rising sea levels, huge and frequent storms, floods, droughts and other catastrophic consequences  
  • the risk that one or more of the above problems will produce chronic long-lasting blackouts and telecom system failures
  • the risk that a natural disaster like an earthquake will damage a major city so badly that it cannot be rebuilt and has to be abandoned
  • the risk that a new and unforeseen competitor will introduce a disruptive innovation into an industry that will cut volume or margins of the major players in half
  • the risk that activist shareholders and/or an ethical investor movement and/or a consumer boycott in response to a company’s perceived irresponsible social or environmental behaviour will reduce market price of the stock by one third

It’s the old important-not-urgent problem — it’s our nature to put off acting on these issues until they become more probable and hence more urgent. Even if (as often happens) that’s too late.

If we perceive the probability (and therefore risk) to be a bit higher, we’ll buy insurance, just-in-case. If the probability becomes even more certain, insurance becomes too expensive, so if the economic consequences are relatively small we’ll self-insure (set aside a bit of money to cover the cost when it occurs), and if the consequences are greater (e.g. we live in a major hurricane zone) it makes sense to have a substantial mitigation plan to prepare for, and if possible reduce exposure to, the risk. Maybe.

In other words, we will only act to become more sustainable if and when we are relatively certain that our sustainability is immediately at risk. That’s true whether we’re a corporation in denial about our dependence on low interest rates or cheap oil or cheap labour, or an individual in denial about the continued economic viability of our SUV for our hour-long commute.
risk 2x2
So what can we do to persuade socially and environmentally conscious organizations to stop watching and start acting? Two things:

  1. we can help them develop, and if necessary require them to disclose, what I call resilience measures; and
  2. we can educate them when the probability of the risk is actually higher than they think it is (i.e. the risk is in the upper right quadrant, not the lower right).

Public companies are currently required to disclose ’significant’ risks in their annual filings, so that investors can assess their vulnerability. What I would like to see is, for selected risks (like the bulleted list above), what would be the consequences if these events occurred — how vulnerable is the company to each of these risks? Perhaps the risk of each is low, but what happens if or when the probability increases suddenly. Shouldn’t investors have this information, and make their own assessment on just how low the probability is? Shouldn’t management know, and employees, and the people in the communities that depend on (and often subsidize) these companies? Shouldn’t the regulators?

I’m not saying companies should have to guess how likely these risks are, just that they should have to assesswhat would happen if these risks were suddenly realized. And then they should develop (for their own benefit, not just shareholders’) resilience measures — programs that would enable to organization to reduce either the negative impact of these risks, or their exposure to these risks, such as:

  • lowering dependence on non-renewable energy, cheap labour, or low interest rates
  • reducing consumption of resources, recycling everything, reducing waste and pollution
  • sourcing locally and having alternative sources of supply
  • reducing financial leverage
  • enabling people to do their work from home
  • recession-proofing the company
  • eliminating socially and environmentally risky and harmful activities
  • developing a continuous innovation program

I’m sure that quantifiable measures of these and other actions to increase organizational resilience could be developed. These are measures that matter, and they should be reported.

Education is a longer-term project, but I think just by starting to think about vulnerabilities to these risks, organizations will self-educate themselves and learn that some of the risks they thought were low-probability (lower right quadrant) are actually greater than they imagined. And some of this education should not be difficult — there is a ton of data that indicates that a pandemic is not only highly probably in the next twenty years (and it could happen anytime, with no notice), but it will last a year or two, and even if it is mild in death count it will be global and will wreak havoc on the economy worldwide.

Perhaps Canadians (and perhaps Europeans) are more enlightened than Americans, but the more I speak to Canadians in business in a position to make a real difference, the more I realize they do get it (most of them, anyway) and do care, and the more optimistic I get that we can be models, we can show the world that there is a better way. Not sohopeless after all.

September 19, 2007

Blowing the Whistle: A Culture of Lying and Cheating

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 19:58
whistleblowerI‘ve written before about whistle-blowers. Yesterday, I actually met one, Cynthia Cooper, the internal auditor at WorldCom who uncovered and relentlessly investigated the company’s three billion dollar fraud.

She’s a brilliant and powerful speaker, telling the astonishing story of convoluted deceit, cover-up, intimidation and negligence bluntly and factually. The stress and fame has of course changed her life, but rather than allow the media to make this into a story of eccentric and arrogant greed, she insisted that it be told as what it was: a story of normal, average people who quietly, and terribly easily, crossed the ethical line.

The reality is that WorldCom would probably have gone bankrupt anyway, so the end result for its employees and investors would likely have been the same even if the fraud had not been unearthed. Some of the perpetrators were too proud to admit their incompetence led to a huge corporation’s demise. Some of them were followed orders out of ignorance or blind faith. Some of them, like gambling addicts, were convinced that with a little more of the same unethical activity, things would turn around and they could repay the debts and stop lying to themselves and the world. Most of them believed no one would be hurt by their actions.

Read the news today about all the people who made huge fortunes lending money irresponsibly and recklessly to people who could only repay it if house prices kept rising forever. Know that among these millionaires there are more criminals hoping there is no rare Cynthia Cooper to blow the whistle on them. When the US Fed lowered interest rates 1/2% yesterday, they told the liars and cheats and fraudsters “Relax, we’ll give you a bit more time to get out from under, to cover your tracks”. To do it again. To get in even deeper. But then as Greenspan’s new book shows, the Fed are liars and cover-up artists too.

Pride. Greed. Ego. Following orders. The desire to get ahead. The sense that no one is really being hurt. That everyone cheats or lies, so why shouldn’t they. The fear to tell the terrible truth and the impulse to get in even deeper in the faint hope of getting out. Rationalization. Succumbing to temptation.

All these things can lead us to lie and cheat. It’s very human. So we speed. We cheat on our exams, and then on our taxes, and then on our spouses. It’s not a crime if it’s not discovered, is it? No one is hurt by it (The Tragedy of the Commons argument). We can stop anytime. Everyone does it. It wasn’t our fault.

But of course, it is our fault. We start down the slippery slope before we realize how slippery it is.

A million movies and TV programs tell us what happens next, as comedy or tragedy. Downfall. But we don’t learn. We can’t stop ourselves in time.

And when we discover someone else doing it, do we blow the whistle? Do we tell the teacher about the kids in the class cheating on the tests and copying essay answers from the Internet? Do we tell the wronged spouse about their cheating partner? Do we phone the tax authorities and rat out our friends and neighbours? Do we phone the police to report speeders?

So why should we be surprised that no one is willing to blow the whistle on those a little further along the slippery slope — the corrupt businesspeople, politicians, regulators, and celebrities? It’s dangerous, and what’s the point anyway? They can bribe or buy their way out of trouble anyway, with the money they’ve stolen from other criminal activities. They can get away with murder, or invasion and destruction of a sovereign nation, or genocide, or Bhopal, or Chernobyl, or Valdez, or the poisoning and desolation of the planet enough to bring about the Sixth Great Extinction.

Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

No need to say what the answer is here. It’s the answer to the Tragedy of the Commons. It’s all about taking responsibility. But it only works if enough of us do it, and refuse to let others shirk it, and refuse to let our commons be exploited. We know what to do, and always have. But at some point in our evolution, we forgot, or we just stopped doing it. Now we live with theconsequences. Now we do what we do.

Category: Being Human
Older Posts »

Powered by WordPress