![]() Cartoon by Tab in the Calgary Sun, from the Cagle site. Thanks to Rob Paterson for the link. Project 10 to the 100th: Google is offering $10 million for the top ideas that help people help other people, in these categories:
You have until October 20th to enter. What’s most interesting is that their evaluation criteria are very similar to the criteria that make for a good Natural Enterprise:
So whether you win or not, if you believe in your idea, get a copy of Finding the Sweet Spot (links in right sidebar) and realize your idea!
Blogging and Self-Knowledge: Amy Lenzo summarizes an article that says one of the results of having so many people blogging is an upsurge in self-reflection and self-knowledge. Could it be that the real benefit of blogging has little to do with the content and everything to do with the self-knowledge and the resultant capacity for action it enables? Blogging the Apocalypse: If you think your writing or artwork says something important about our times of crisis, you might want to submit it to Qarrtsiluni, the online literary magazine co-edited by Cassandra, by October 6, for their next edition themed “Journaling the Apocalypse”. You might not know that the word apocalypse literally means ‘the uncovering of a pre-existing truth’, so that opens the scope for submissions considerably. The Connection Between Sleep, Learning and Creativity: A new study of the effects of sleep claims “sleep improves creative ability to generate aha! moments and to uncover novel connections among seemingly unrelated ideas“. Of course, aboriginal people already knew that. “When anyone uses ‘but’ in a sentence, throw away everything to the left of the ‘but’ “: That’s a quote from Chris Brogan via Communicatrix, who muses brilliantly on how that stuff on the left side of the ‘but’ (”I’d love to do x but…”) can be our excuse for inaction, for dreaming rather than doing, or can be our way of lying to ourselves about what we really want and who we really are. If we make a list of those ‘left-of-the-but’ things and study it honestly we might just learn some important things about ourselves, and change ourselves to move our lives in a new direction. “What you are allowed to doówhat we all must do, and always, because we are not fixed in stoneóis to stay awake and keep your finger on the pulse of your desires…I speak of the list both literally (I am a big listmaker) and metaphorically (hello, therapy!). This is about you, getting down with you. Use whatever time and tools necessary, because really, you arenít going anywhere until you do.” As Geoff Brown would say, “yes, and…”. Last Word on the Bailout: Most of us realize the current bailout proposal is a trillion dollar gift to greedy and incompetent corporatists that leaves nothing for their victims — the people sucked into loans they could never repay, and into the undertow of collapsing prices once the bubble burst. With the need for another $150 billion to keep the FDIC solvent (thanks to Dale Asberry for the link), the bailout total cost is now nearing $1.25 trillion. A number of suggestions have been made that would help taxpayers too, but most of them are politically motivated and would just increase the program cost even more. A better answer, as Thom Hartmann explains, is instead of buying up bad loans at way more than they’re worth (and there is absolutely no way to know what they’re really worth, so complex is the mire of ‘risk-spreading’ financial instruments), to take an equity stake in these companies for the amount of the loans the government guarantees (yes, that means nationalizing them rather than giving them taxpayer money to reward them for their behaviour). And at the same time, we need to put a large tax on speculation, and start taxing capital gains at the same rate (if not higher) that we tax income that’s actually earned. At least that way the taxpayers will have something to show for their investment. In the meantime, no matter how well it’s handled, this is going to so cripple US ability to spend money on anything else, and make it so vulnerable, that, for reasons Andrew Leonard further explains, I predict the US dollar will lose half its value by the end of 2010. John Robb explains (thanks to David Parkinson for the link) that the systems that now govern our civilization are so complex that even the most informed can no longer fathom or navigate them. Hard times ahead, especially if you have assets in $US, investments dependent on a healthy US economy, or debts dependent on low interest rates. …The Real Last Word on the Bailout: Sharon Brogan explains how the bailout became necessary in terms everyone can understand. “Now the government says it will put Real Money in the vaults. But where will they get it? Not from the Wall Street Big Shots. Not from the CEO’s, or their Parachutes. Nobody suggests that putting Real People with real Health Care back into Real Jobs and Real Houses might help.” $500/Barrel Oil Coming Soon: If you look at the supply/demand curves, based on even conservative assumptions $500/barrel oil is quite believable. Oilman and lifelong Republican Matt Simmons explains why $500 is coming and what it means for an economy already in free-fall. “As a society, we don’t have the ability to actually come to grips with a crisis until it’s hit us in the face. I am discouraged enough now to think that we’re going to have to have a really nasty shock before we wake people up”. Thanks to Craig De Ruisseau for the link. Army in the Streets of America: I confess I don’t really know what to make of the US government’s decision to permanently station armed forces inside the US to serve “in times of emergency” and “to help with civil unrest and crowd control”. A lot of Americans seem to think this is a significant change, but living in a country (Canada) whose citizens have been kidnapped by Homeland Security on US soil without charges or any recourse to the legal system, and secreted to foreign torture prisons, it’s hard for me to see army brownshirts tasering protest groups as a significant further deterioration of civil liberties. I absolutely dread crossing the US border, knowing that Homeland Security can do anything they want to me, including now seizing my laptop and files and stealing everything in them without cause or notice (thanks to Our Descent for the link). The horses are all gone, folks, and now it doesn’t much matter how much wider the barn doors are swung open. You ceded your civil liberties in 2004 when you re-elected Bush, and none of the candidates running to succeed him have voiced any indication they are planning to restore them. Stop Harper: There’s a desperate campaign under way across Canada to try to defeat the Bush lapdog and extreme right-wing Conservative Stephen Harper. Because of Canada’s first-past-the-post system, the four progressive parties are likely to split the vote so badly that Harper is now likely to win a majority with only 35% of the vote. In addition to allowing Harper to wreck the Canadian economy (he favours tax cuts for the rich) and the environment (he opposes Kyoto), this will probably spell the demise of Canada’s second original political party, the Liberals. Like the Progressive Conservative party, which collapsed and disappeared in the 1980s after its leader Brian Mulroney nearly destroyed the country, and which was then taken over by the right-wing Reform Party and rebranded, the current collapse of the Liberals is likely to lead to a tripartite merger of the Liberal rump, the NDP (which may well end up the official opposition), and possibly the Greens. Anyone want to suggest a name for them? Canadian Students Win Innovation Award: “Five guys from Ontario” have developed a software program, Ecorio, that “gives users the ability to reduce their environmental footprint with tools that provide transit options for trips, allow them to invest in carbon reduction projects and share their tips with other users” Thanks to Graham Clark for the link. Helping the Homeless Self-Organize: Homeless Nation is a site where the homeless can compare notes, ideas, persecutions and challenges and help each other out. It was started in Vancouver, where I am today, and I confess I’m blown away by the huge number of homeless people in the streets, and how mentally distraught many of them obviously are. They need this kind of help, and much more. Thanks to Theresa Purcell for the link. Just For Fun: From Tom Munneke via Nancy White: Max Explores Thought for the Week: via Rob Paterson: The Stockdale Paradox: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end ñ which you can never afford to lose ñ with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.” I’ll be on Bowen Island at the facilitation skills training session from Sunday through Wednesday. The location has (deliberately) no Internet access, so my next post here will be Wednesday or Thursday October 1 or2. I’m hoping to resolve my questions about Open Space, that Chris Corrigan, Jack Martin Leith, Johnnie Moore and some others have already commented on in reply to my blog post. See you then. |
September 27, 2008
Saturday Links of the Week: September 27, 2008, and AFK Notice
September 26, 2008
CCK08 Week Three: Eight Important Questions About Learning and Connection
![]() Week 3 of the CCK08 Connectivism MOOC is principally about network theory. I’ve written a bit about this, notably about network analysis (Rob Cross) and network mapping (Valdis Krebs, who was this week’s ‘virtual guest lecturer’). All week I’ve been reminded of how, especially once we reach age 50, we tend to rely more and more on our networks — both human networks (communities) and knowledge networks (the places we store what we’ve learned). This is partly due to the fact that we have ever more knowledge to handle, and partly because as we age our short-term memory weakens. Someone once said, famously, when asked how he could command such an enormous store of knowledge, “I keep my knowledge in my networks”. I’ve started using IM, VoIP, and Google Desktop to recall my know-who (”who should I talk to about X again?”), my know-what (”where was that great tapas bar in Vancouver?”) and my know-how (”what was step 6 in my Innovation Process?”) With a lifetime’s practice I’ve learned to keep in mind that I am only a complicity, a space through which stuff passes, and that my purpose is to touch the right stuff in just the right way as it passes through, in a way that brings meaning and joy and value to myself and to others in my social networks, my communities. To do this I use a particular process (sense, self-control, understand, question, imagine, offer, collaborate) to address each issue, project, decision, and challenge I face each day. Much of this process is social, and it is conducted with members of my communities, my social networks. In fact deciding who to include in which networks, which networks to participate in, and how, and which people to invest time in and seek conversation with (and perhaps even which to trust and love) is probably the most important type of decision I make each day. This week, for example, I decided to meet with Jon Husband for breakfast in San Jose (instead of going back to bed after a 6am media interview on my book). That important breakfast conversation inspired yesterday’s post. And shortly after that I met with Second Life friend Michelle Paradis for lunch in Santa Cruz, as prearranged, and discovered to my delight that she had invited five other fascinating people to join us: strategic change guru (and another Second Life friend) Gary Merrill, creativity and narrative consultants Kenton Hyatt and Cheryl DiCiantis, and Living Strategy advisors (and animal menagerie owners) Arian Ward and Beth Alexandre. Between the seven of us we discovered a remarkable number of connections and common friends (many of which also included some of my Tuesday dinner companions) — to the point we realized that we were all essentially already ‘hidden’ parts of each other’s networks, one or at most two degrees of separation apart. (Thanks so much to the amazing Michelle for arranging all this!) So I began to think about how we make the decision on whether and how to accommodate new acquaintances in our already time-constrained and attention-constrained networks. After all, a recent study by Tom Davenport concluded that the most effective (i.e. productive) people in organizations tended to be those who had the strongest networks and who somehow were able to invest a substantial amount of time each day in nurturing those networks. My right sidebar lists what I’ve been calling my ‘gravitational community’ — the people with whom I have gravitated because of common interests and passions, mutual admiration, respect and love. My lengthier blogroll has been moved off my home page to make room of this more important (to me) list of key networks. These are people I allow and even encourage to interrupt me, anytime, for instant conversations — if I had known them before the days of the Internet, they would be the people who I’d invite to drop over unannounced, anytime. All of this raises some very important questions about networks:
My knowledge networks — the places I store and access knowledge that is important, useful or memorable to me, are somewhat easier to manage, because I use my blog to capture what are to me the important parts of what I read, see, hear, discover, experience and learn, so I can then use Google Desktop or the search bar of my blog to recall what I’ve learned later, and even ‘re-learn’ it quickly. So much for networks. The mindmap above is an earlier list of the things I believe are most important to learn, the modern ’survival skills and knowledge’ list. I’m an advocate of unschooling (self-directed learning) and I believe that we are naturally able to learn these things ourselves, as soon as we discover they are important to us. But I also sense that the modern education system has stripped most of us of this natural learning ability in order to make us obedient and subservient. The Connectivism discussions make it clear that we’re as puzzled and divergent in our views about learning as we are about networks. This brings us to four more Important Questions:
I’m hoping that the Connectivism course will help answer these questions over the next nine weeks. If it does, it will be an extraordinary accomplishment. If it succeeds, it will probably be due not to the catalyzing questions and readings of the course ‘instructors’, but to the collective conversations of the hundreds of people engaged in thecourse, with each other, in community. I’m hanging in to find out. |
September 25, 2008
Facilitation, Objectivity, Worldviews, Innovation and Coping with Complex Problems
I‘m on my way from San Jose to Vancouver and thence to Bowen Island for a course on The Art of Hosting (a collection of event facilitation and problem-solving methodologies). Despite the fact that Open Space, one of those methodologies, makes enormous conceptual sense, and should work brilliantly as a means to help a large, diverse group of people address complex problems, I’ve been disappointed with the Open Space sessions I’ve participated in. They were full of optimism and possibility, but somehow the collective wisdom of these ‘crowds’ just never really emerged.
It’s tempting to blame this on the facilitators, but with a couple of exceptions the facilitation of these sessions was done brilliantly. It’s equally tempting to blame it on the audience, saying they weren’t the right people, or lacked some of the critical capacities needed by the collective group for breakthrough thinking, or fell victim to groupthink, or weren’t engaged, or lacked energy. Open Space has a rule that “whoever comes are the right people” but also asserts the importance of a well-crafted invitation and getting that invitation out to the people you hope to draw to the event. So it was interesting to hear Dave Snowden say the other day that self-managed facilitation events like Open Space “punish mavericks” — their ideas are usually too complex or too difficult to grasp or too difficult to articulate clearly, and therefore get ignored or even ridiculed. Could this be the problem with these methods? I’ve had several experiences where the most brilliant ideas I heard at an event were not even recorded in the official or unofficial record of the event. I’ve even used mindmaps, displayed at the front of the event or breakout room, to record what I’ve heard being said, only to be challenged by those who ‘heard’ something completely different. I’m always surprised at the response to my own ideas at such events. Half the time they are simply not heard, because the group has preconceptions of what the event or outcomes would or should be, and my ideas just didn’t fit with them, and so were considered ‘out of scope’ or even ‘out of order’. The other half the time they are embraced with such zeal (one of my distinctive competencies is my ability to imagine possibilities that others don’t seem to be able to come up with) that I feel guilty for having hijacked the process and ‘bullied’ the group into adopting my solution without thinking it through adequately and without properly making it theirs. This is not a robust innovation process. Or does the problem perhaps lie in the very nature and premise of facilitation — the belief that the facilitator can really remain objective and avoid steering the supposedly self-managed group in a direction that betrays the facilitator’s bias (or the facilitator’s sponsor’s bias)? Can we really be objective, or does our presence as part of the event inevitably colour it? Just as the observer’s very presence is said to affect quantum outcomes, does the facilitator’s very presence affect the event outcomes? Some of the most popular current research and analysis methodologies stress the importance of being ‘fact-based’ or ‘evidence-based’ — euphemisms for ‘objective’ — but the world’s best researchers will tell you the defining characteristic of world-class research is asking the right (sometimes ‘naive’) questions, and such questions are inevitably provocative and subjective. There are some (a growing number, it appears) who believe that it is impossible to be objective, and that all news and information is inherently biased, not least by the selection of precisely what information, and details, to report and to not report. George Lakoff’s work tells us that we see and interpret everything through a personal worldview that colours what we accept and how we react to it. Perhaps, these objectivity-deniers might argue, the so-called facilitators should just present their own (or their sponsors’) context and hypotheses, as a ’straw man’, and let the participants start with those, and alter or challenge them as they deem appropriate. When I start to ‘redesign’ such methodologies to try to accommodate these objections, the most experienced practitioners tend to shout foul, arguing that these methodologies have been honed to be functional yet as simple as possible from years of practice and experience, and if they don’t work perhaps a different methodology should be used rather than adulterating an established methodology. But I can’t resist tinkering nevertheless. Here are some early thoughts on things that I think might make a methodology like Open Space work better:
Of course, even if these complications of the facilitator’s role are desirable, there’s a question whether they don’t so complicate that role as torequire a small army of facilitators to manage. It should be an interesting discussion on Monday and Tuesday. Stay tuned. Category: Complexity and Discovery
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September 24, 2008
KMW08 — Greetings, Thanks, Request, and Animal Tales
![]() Greetings to visitors to HtStW from KMWorld & Intranets 2008 in San Jose, where I presented yesterday on From Content to Context and From Collection to Connection, a discussion of how Knowledge Management is evolving with the astonishing help of Generation Millennium. I self-recorded the presentation, and may try to turn the Slideshare into my first Slidecast. The tag for the event is KMW08 and the event blog is here. The mood is upbeat, as many organizations seem to be discovering the power and low cost of open source social networking, and giving up on heavy, expensive, centralized, over-engineered content solutions like sharepoint. We’re even making some progress on my dream of replacing e-mail with real-time connectivity tools. Last night I had an extraordinary dinner with three extraordinary people (photos above, from top): Dave Snowden, Amy Lenzo, and Jerry Michalski. Once the beverages started flowing some indiscreet things were said, so it may take some editing (and a long wait) before I can put it up as a podcast. It’s audible, though, despite the clinking and chatter from other tables, and listening to it is eerily like eavesdropping. Thanks to Amy for the photos above, and to my three guests for astonishing conversation. Tonight I had the pleasure of dining with Second Life Intentional Community cohort Paul Heft. It’s an absolute delight meeting people you’ve come to know and like virtually, face to face, and discovering they’re exactly how you had come to “know” them. Paul’s a guy full of gentleness, grace and presence, and I hope, if I ever grow up, I’ll turn out like him. Proud to know you, my friend. A request for those who have read and enjoyed my book (finally up on the right sidebar) — if you are so inclined, could you please post a short review on Amazon.com, and if you’re Canadian or British copy it to your local country Amazon site (links to all the pertinent book pages on the right sidebar)? My publisher, Chelsea Green says some positive reviews can help sales. Thank you! And finally, a good word on two wonderful books about animals:
My kind of people, sir, we don’t always have dreams. It’s better not to, sometimes. I’d rather appreciate what I’ve got than die of wanting whatI can’t have.
Both books will make you cry. But in a good way. |
September 22, 2008
The Pursuit of Happiness
![]() My well-being mindmap, based on self-management actions I took after contracting chronic ulcerative colitis in 2006 On Saturday I pointed you to an old (2001) article by John Perry Barlow on the foolishness of our relentless pursuit of happiness — which for modern humans so often means the pursuit of more material wealth, the pursuit of escapist drugs and other entertainments, the pursuit of the perfect body, face, mind and/or appendage, the constant search for positive self-improvement, and the paranoid fear and avoidance of those things we are taught to fear and avoid (which are usually all the wrong things). Barlow quotes Swami Satchidananda: If you run after things, nothing will come to you. Let things run after you. The sea never sends an invitation to the rivers. That’s why they run to the sea. The sea is content. It doesn’t want anything. That’s the secret in life.
So, Barlow says, rather than pursuing happiness we should just pursue our business, be who we are and do what we were meant to do, and just open ourselves to the possibility of happiness, and let it find us. Citing the happiness of Africans (and I would add Latin Americans) he says that happiness is most often a collective feeling that comes from collective accomplishment and collective comfort, rather than one that comes from individual pursuits. That would tend to rule out the pursuit of wealth and possessions, which is often comparative and competitive. It’s also consistent with studies that have showed that violence and unhappiness are highest in places where the Gini Index of wealth inequality is highest (notably despotic struggling nations and the US). To Barlow, the best ways to open oneself to happiness are through realizing one’s personal purpose, through creativity, through service to others, through awareness (what we now call presence), and through loving (but, I would add, not through being loved, which is what most of us seem to seek so desperately, in our anxious and incessant pursuit of attention and appreciation). A most admirable list, but one that to me seems quite onerous. Surely, I thought as I read his essay, there must be an easier approach. I often find myself wishing I had more time for all the things I’d like to do, but I rarely find myself unhappy doing any of the things I do. I like where I live and what I do and who I do it with. The only things that stress me, these days, are the too many things that I’ve (foolishly, but that’s no consolation) promised to do that haven’t been done, and the still-frequent feeling that I’m letting people down. Behind all this, always, lies my unbearable grief for Gaia, but I’ve mostly stopped stressing about things I can’t fix, so except when it hits close to home (for example, when I witness personally suffering or an act of cruelty or another manifestation of how royally our species has fucked up this world) I’ve learned to take it in stride. To me happiness is not wanting anything, and ridding yourself of the chores and obligations that you hate, and taking on just the right amount of things that they can all be done well, comfortably and joyfully. I recognize that, in the modern world, for many it is impossible to rid themselves of chores and obligations, and I grieve for those people, and am thankful I am not them. But I suppose in the end I am not the Hanged Man, not the exhausted self-sacrificing person I once thought I was intended to be. I don’t think I have ever been happier just filling every day with being myself and doing the things that I love and which have meaning to me, things for the most part I’ve learned to do well, but still love practicing so I can become even better at them. Doing things that are, to my astonishment and in unpredictable ways, somehow useful to others as well. That makes me really happy. I am just the space through which stuff passes, a part of the unfathomably complex dance of all-life-on-Earth. A part of that dance, it seems to me, is learning to improvise which of that passing-through stuff to touch, and which to just let go. It’s not a choice, so much as a knowing, a collective and connected knowing, an instinctive and sensual knowing. “Ah, I know how I can make this better, or clearer, or more interesting, or more useful, or more innovative, or more fun — there!” Like the expert who just knows, from practice, where the puck or ball is going to be, I’m learning, perpetually, to be there, to do that stuff I do that helps just a little bit, to know what to do and to have fun doing it. The wild creatures whose world I increasingly share understand this well, and it will take a lifetime of practice to become half as wise as they are in the arts of living, and making a living, and being of use, and being happy, without even trying. Just being the space, and touchingthe right stuff in just the right way as it passes through. Category: Let-Self-Change
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September 21, 2008
Saturday Links of the Week: September 20, 2008
![]() The End of Free Markets and the US Dollar This has been the first week in seven years that the mainstream media have actually been reporting important news. The top news, of course, is that greed and incompetence in the private sector of the US financial ’services’ industry has now proved to be so massive that the entire financial sector is unraveling. The US government had two possible responses. It could allow these long-time advocates of deregulation to be hoist on their own petard, which most of them surely deserved, but which would have collapsed global stock markets, thrown millions out of work, and extinguished the life savings and retirement hopes of most of the population. Or it could bail them out, not one by one as they fell, but preemptively, by guaranteeing (with taxpayer’s money) every financial company’s junk securities and junk mortgages — those reckless zero-down, no interest for one year, no payments for one year offerings to hopelessly overextended borrowers — which is what it has opted to do. The price tag for this operation will easily surpass one trillion dollars. The US treasury doesn’t have this money, or any money for that matter — it is mired in unrepayable debt already thanks to the Bush wars and Bush tax cuts for the rich. So it will print this money. It will flush more than a trillion dollars of new paper into the global markets and pray that the Chinese and the Arabs will accept it. Because the Chinese are dependent on US trade, they probably will. Because the Arab princes are afraid of an end of US military largesse and the threat of further US military chaos in their region, they may accept it too. It’s a giant game of chicken now. Everyone knows that the US dollar is now essentially worthless, and once people start bailing out, it will collapse. Just a matter of when, now. Six months or twenty years, sudden or gradual. What’s fascinating is that most US politicians, who are either ignorant of all this or in denial, are still running on a “less government” platform, when the only hope to avoid a global depression was and is massively more government. We’re talking about a takeover, essentially a nationalization of the private sector, on a scale that’s never been seen before. The US government will soon effectively be keeping entirely afloat an industry that now produces close to 30% of the GDP, second only to the war industry that it is the only customer of. In other words, adding to what it already produces, the government (your tax dollars at work) could soon be responsible for three quarters of the entire US GDP. As the WSJ reported earlier this week, “the US financial system resembles a patient in intensive care” (thanks to Craig De Ruisseau for this link). Two days later, the patient is comatose. And there’s more. Yesterday, in an act of staggering irresponsibility, US regulators placed a ban on short-selling. What that means is that people who bought hedges to protect themselves from losses in a downturn are now forced to cover those hedges, and take massive losses. To cover those losses, they had to buy the very stocks they’re worried will fall, and the huge rush of buying pushed the stock market up and made millions for short-term speculators gleefully ready to sell these stocks at artificially inflated prices. What’s left is a horrifically fragile and overpriced stock market. Everyone is now trying to figure out how to get out without precipitating the inevitable panic and decline. The NYT reports: Hedge fund managers who made vast profits betting against the nationís financial titans called the ban unfair, and said the move would only prolong the financial crisis. Some traders said they were no longer betting on the intrinsic health of companies, but rather on what the government might do next. Others simply withdrew from the market.
ìSome of my clients are literally closing their books and going on their vacation for two weeks ó they canít operate in this environment,î said Meredith A. Whitney, a financial services analyst. ìYou pack up and come back and play the game when you know what the rules are.î Some hedge fund managers complained bitterly that they had been singled out, even as they were among the few to properly manage risk. Those whom the government had propped up were the investment banks, whose hundreds of billions of dollars in losses arose from reckless risks undertaken to raise profits to hedge-fund-like levels. ìBailing out the banks should not be done,î said Carl C. Icahn, the activist investor. He suggested that the government should have extended those firms a loan, instead of buying their toxic mortgage-backed securities. Icahn and the rest of Wall Street know full well, of course, that “extending those firms a loan” would be just throwing good money after bad, since the security behind those loans would be worthless, and the loans would ultimately be defaulted as the companies went under. It is almost as if the regulators suddenly decided that short-selling — hedging your bets that the stock market would go on rising forever — was unpatriotic, un-American. The ‘free’ market is now only ‘free’ if you’re betting that it will rise. And it’s certainly no longer ‘free’ to the US taxpayer. If you’re a taxpayer, you should be furious. The incompetent thieves who pocketed billions from reckless predatory lending are being rewarded with blanket bailouts from your pocket. Your currency, your life savings and your pensions have been put at risk, and will almost certainly be worthless within your lifetime, as the government and regulators of today choose to reward their friends and stall off real action to deal with this worsening crisis to the next administration. Shameful. This is an unmitigated disaster. A Better Solution to the Financial Crisis: Ian Welsh has an idea that would work better to deal with the financial crisis in the US: “What the government should do instead is set up a Trust to buy mortgages at a discount, then reset them to 20, 30 or 50 year fixed mortgages with a reduced face amount. If the house is later sold, half of the increase goes to the government, so that taxpayers make a profit. The mortgage cannot be paid off before the end of its term so that financial scavengers cannot come around and, as they did over the last ten years, say ‘get rid of that mortgage, and take ours. It’s better. Honest!’, because we know that when they say better, they don’t mean better for the mortgage holder. The mortgage is attached to the property and is transfered to any new buyer. And the mortgage cannot be removed from the property, and any new mortgages attached to the property are junior to the government mortgage.” Thanks to Jon Husband for the link. Plan B on Climate Change Once you’ve come to grips with the grim financial future that now awaits us all, Thomas Homer-Dixon has some important ideas on the climate change front. I was a big fan of his book The Upside of Down which describes what is needed, starting at a grass-roots level and pushing upwards, to respond to climate change effectively. Now, in an extraordinary 78-minute video shot in Toronto last week he lays out Plan B for climate change — what we may (and probably will) have to do as more modest and tepid responses prove ineffective and as the positive feedbacks that are accelerating climate change in unforeseen ways make the situation worse, faster. Please watch this video — it’s important. If you haven’t time for the whole thing, wait for it to download and skip to the 55-minute mark, where he talks about how rising oil costs are producing a surge in coal-burning, especially in China, that is accelerating carbon emissions. He then goes on to lay out a 7-item list of what we will need to do, in what order, to reduce atmospheric carbon below 350 ppm in time, which essentially means reducing man-made carbon emissions within a few years to zero.
He argues that we need to start working now on at least the first six steps, because they will take time to perfect and introduce, time that we don’t have to waste. He believes, with great trepidation, we will need all six steps to prevent massive climate change. He has an editorial in today’s NYT that describes the sulfate flooding of the stratosphere (”geo-engineering the atmosphere”) that is #6 on this list. Step #7 is moving to a steady-state economy to replace our current growth economy. In light of what’s happened in financial markets now, I can see why he sees such a move as so radical and difficult. The capital markets would find a market without growth in profits unfathomable, impossible, since all capital markets function on material things being worth more, and people buying more, year after year. Without growth, stocks as currently formulated make no sense, so pensions and other investments will earn only inflation-equivalent interest, and will not increase in real value. Our entire concept of wealth creation will have to change. And, of course, population growth will have to end, too. More about this in a future article. Thought for the Week: A quote by Franz Kafka on opening oneself to life’s little delights, from an absolutely extraordinary 2001 essay on our misguided obsession with happiness by EFF’s John Perry Barlow (please read it in its entirety; thanks to Evelyn Rodriguez for the link): It is not necessary that you leave the house. Remain at your table and listen. Do not even listen, only wait. Do not even wait, be wholly still and alone. The world will present itself to you for its unmasking. It can do no other; in ecstasy it will writhe at your feet.
It has been a troubling week. People keep asking me what they should be doing. My advice is still the same: get out of debt (there is a trillion dollars for big financial institutions, but they’re not going to bail you out); and invest in learning — spend your time and money learning essential capacities that will make you resilient no matter what the idiots steering the economy, and the crooks bleeding it dry, do to us all. Learn how to grow and make and fix and maintain your own stuff, and do so in community with people you love and trust (contrary to the old western movies, loners perish, while people with strong caring networks do well). Buy goods that are more durable, even if they cost more. Buy less. Value your money less and your time and relationships more. And pace yourself — I don’t think this is “the big one” (the start of the second Great Depression) yet (I think that’s still a couple of decades off, when Peak Oil and Climate Change and the other horrific fragilities in our economy and society really start to come into play and compound the debt problem).But the Long Emergency has clearly, now, begun. |
September 19, 2008
CCK08 Week Two: Expectations of a Course on Learning, and Thoughts About How We Learn
Week 2 of the CCK08 Connectivism and Connnected Learning course was mostly about “types of knowledge”, not of great interest to me, especially since my current KM riff is about the need to switch attention (and resources) From Content to Context and from Collection to Connection. So here I am among 2000 participants from around the world, all focused on knowledge and learning and how we can improve them. There is a lot of content being shared, but there is a clear struggle to make meaning of it, to put it into context that is useful. To do that, what is needed is conversation and connection. The conversations I have witnessed so far are mostly those among somewhat bewildered students of the course trying to figure out what to do. It’s the classic teacher-student co-dependence played out on a massive and virtual stage: Teachers need students to make a living. Students expect teachers to tell them something that they can credentialize, get ‘credit’ for that will improve their resume. They want ‘tests’ that will allegedly demonstrate who has learned the most. Of course, tests don’t demonstrate anything of the sort. They demonstrate, mostly, which student was cleverest and most knowledgeable about the subject matter before the course began. Most of the people in this massive open online course (MOOC) are not taking the course for credit (though I suspect many will claim it as personal PD). Most will not do the written assignments. Many, I suspect, will either drop out over the course of the twelve weeks when they cease to get anything more substantive out of it, or will peer back in every week or two and invest enough time to satisfy themselves they aren’t missing anything important. I may well be one of them. But in the meantime I’m investing four hours a week in thinking and conversing about learning and knowledge transfer, because I think the subject is important. The two slides above (from my presentation next week at KMWorld & Intranets in San Jose) show where I’m coming from on this. Knowledge Management was coopted, early on, by a combination of librarians and researchers (who thought it was all about knowledge content), corporate trainers (who thought it was all about learning content), and Intranet/Internet corporate webmasters (who thought it was all about web and groupware content). It took a decade before disgruntled users made it clear that they still learn and share knowledge the same way they always did: by picking up the phone or walking down the hall or getting on a plane and having context-rich real-time conversations. It was, and is, all about context and connectivity. So as my slide above shows, the seven most important initiatives of KM 2.0 are context-building, connection-building, and personal productivity initiatives — facilitating better, more informed conversations with the right people. So far this course has not focused on that. But some of the later sessions are focused on the changing role of educators, which ties in to the seven initiatives above. Regular readers know I’m a fan of unschooling — of self-directed and self-organized learning, that is facilitated (coached), not taught. We learn through conversation, and through direct observation, with people who know more or different, from whence we pick up knowledge, ideas, insights, and new capacities. As much as I hate most of the content-focused KM 1.0 technologies, I love some of the context-focused, real-time KM 2.0 technologies (IM, screen-sharing, video capture/conferencing, Open Space) which can enable such facilitation, and enhance learning. If the Connectivism course can show other ways to make this happen, I can hardly wait. Now if only I could find some more robust ways to connect with the other participants, peer-to-peer! Category: Knowledge Management
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September 17, 2008
Suppose
![]() You wake up tomorrow and discover that all the hydrocarbons in the world — all the oil, gas and coal — have vanished. Evaporated. Crumbled into dust and blown away. Since it’s dark, you have to stumble around looking for a candle, hoping that all your candles aren’t made of paraffin, and wonder how you are going to light it when your butane lighter is now empty. You have water, for now, but your fridge and freezer are not working, so you start to guess how many days’ food supply you have left and how long before it spoils. You estimate that after two weeks you’ll be relying on dry goods and canned goods, and expecting that they’ll have to do, since by then the stores and restaurants will be empty and abandoned. You’re cold in the dewy morning air, so you add a few layers of clothing, and then wonder how, from now on, you’re going to keep them clean. You remember from your university days washing your clothes by hand in the sink and hanging them to dry. But even then the detergent you used was petroleum based. You wonder whether to make a run for the store before everyone else empties out the shelves. But it’s a long way on foot, and how much could you cart back, anyway, even with your bicycle, which has no carrier on it? You’re puzzled by the fact your cell phone isn’t working, even though it has some charge left in it, and there are no radio stations on the air. You have no idea if TV stations are still broadcasting, and the morning paper hasn’t come. You rummage around for the non-portable phone you keep for times of power outages, but you can’t find it in the dark. You stagger outside, seeking to find some meaning for this bizarre event through conversation with others. All your neighbours, at least those who slept at home last night, are out at the end of their driveways, looking bleary-eyed and bewildered, talking quietly. The cats and dogs seem enchanted by this strange occurrence, and the dogs rush, tails wagging, between the huddled groups of people who are munching various foods they’ve scrounged from their cupboards and fridges, hoping for morning treats. What you notice most is the silence, the incredible peacefulness of this morning scene. You can hear birds that you’ve never noticed before. Although it’s past daybreak, you can still see the stars. There’s a sense of exhilaration, not dread, among the people you meet, as if they’d been liberated rather than deprived of the fuel of their civilization. Work responsibilities that yesterday weighed heavy are no longer important. It is as if everyone has discovered they have all the time in the world. Within an hour, plans have been formed to pool the neighbourhood’s perishables, to keep them in one cool shared place, and to mete them out, fairly and carefully so they last as long as possible. Henceforth, all meals will be communal, shared with neighbours whose names, yesterday, you hardly knew. The parents of one of the neighbours, you learn, are farmers with dairy cows, free range chickens and several acres of vegetables. An expedition is formed — a bicycle brigade — for the ten-mile trek to this farm, to see if the owners are well and safe, to offer services to replace those once done with oil-powered technology, and to procure supplies for the coalesced neighbourhood group. This group of 35 people includes a bed-ridden senior, a child with Down Syndrome, a two-month-old baby, six people with various allergies, three diabetics, and a woman in an electric wheelchair (now powerless). These people lives within five minutes’ walk of your home, but you didn’t know most of them existed until today. Now they’re your community. So are six dogs, four cats, and various furred, feathered and scaled creatures, animal companions now dependent on your collective largesse. This is not what you’d expected. There are no looters, no gangs, no crazies with guns trying to protect what’s theirs or take what’s yours. You’re not sure what will happen next, or even if this is all a dream. But you do not feel terribly concerned. You have a plan, as part of this quirky new, quickly-assembled community. You are doing what you can. No panic is called for, and there’s no point in it anyway. The silence is astonishing. You have time, space and opportunity to think. There is no hurry any more. There is no worry, either. There is a sense of comfort, connection, security, self-control, independence. It will be winter, soon, but there’s plenty of wood stacked up, and unlike the other sources of fuel and heat, it seems to be intact. You know wood is bad for carbon emissions, but you have high-efficiency fireplaces, and besides, with no more oil or coal being burned, will global warming still be a problem? In an hour you’re going to take your dog for the longest walk of her life, as you join the ten-mile bicycle brigade to the neighbour’s parents’ farm. You’ve never milked a cow before, and your dog’s never even seen one. You are singing to yourself: “Now she’s wild with expectation on the edge of the unknown“, and you know the song’s about you. “It’s enough to be on your way, it’s enough just to cover ground, it’s enough to be moving on.” You’re on your way. You feed your dog, eat some cereal, drink some juice, kiss loved ones goodbye for awhile, and cycle over to join the group, loaded with water, blankets, baskets, ready for the trek. One member of the group has a crank-powered mp3 player, yesterday a conversation piece, today a staggeringly valuable rarity. You are missing your music, already. You wonder how all the people, all over the world, are coping. The people you know and love, and now cannot talk to, and may never talk to again. The people you’ve never met, in struggling nations, who will find this day not terribly different from yesterday, people who have spent their lives learning to live the way you’re just about to begin to learn to live. You feel a sudden affinity with these people. You are becoming someone else, someone you could not have been yesterday. Someone more connected to the land, to the people in your community and all over the world, to all-life-on-Earth. The sun is shining, now, and the colour of the skies and the trees and the eyes of the people beside you are richer, more real, different from anything you have seen before, and you’re sooverwhelmed with awe and wonder and you’re laughing and crying and so present it’s almost unbearable. Category: Fables
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September 16, 2008
The Transition Town Phenomenon
![]() My publisher, Chelsea Green, is the North American distributor for Rob Hopkins’ book The Transition Handbook, which explains the Transition Town phenomenon and how you can make your community a Transition Town. The idea of Transition Towns is radical relocalization of politics, economics and culture to autonomous and self-sufficient communities, in order to cope effectively with the twin perils of Peak Oil and Climate Change, to become resilient to such mega-changes. Hopkins decided to create a working model of such a community in 2006, in Totnes, UK, and there are now over a hundred networked transition towns in existence or in the planning stages, built on that model. The handbook begins with a primer on both Peak Oil and Climate Change, and explains how the two problems together create a ‘perfect storm’. It goes on to explain some of the approaches that have been proffered, from techno-dreaming to power-down to business as usual, and some of the scenarios of collapse, adaptation and evolution that various students of these problems have laid out. Approaches to resilience and relocalization are then described.
Part Three describes how to move from vision to action, and this part contains the most important and revolutionary information in the book: the table contrasting the transition approach with conventional environmentalism:
and the twelve principles of permaculture (observation, natural energy storage, self-productive interventions, self-regulation, renewability, zero waste, design from pattern to detail, integrate don’t segregate, prefer small and slow solutions, use and value diversity, use edges and value the marginal, and creatively use and respond to change). The maximal size of a transition community is explained to be that which allows the members of the community to still feel strong personal influence over the collective decisions. Hopkins then lays out the twelve steps (not sequential) necessary to create a transition town:
and provides stories of what Totnes and other transition towns have been through and the challenges they still face. This Handbook is still a work in process, and I suspect that, with evolving input from transition towns around the world, and the benefit of more experience, it will become much better. But it is already an important roadmap, a set of ideas for creating model Transition Towns by reinventing communities that already exist, instead of trying to pioneer new ones. In that sense it’s more pragmatic than the Natural Community / Intentional Community models that I’ve espoused and written about. I remain somewhat skeptical about what can be sustained in communities that are still deeply rooted in and connected to the unsustainable industrial economy, but I’ll continue to study thetransition town model with interest and hope. There’s room for more than one model of a better way to live, and if this model actually works, well, imagine the possibilities. (An hour-long interview with Hopkins, with some footage of Totnes, is on YouTube here. If that’s too long there’s a quickie here. And if you want to see a really powerful and thorough explanation of the perils of inaction on climate change, watch this jaw-dropping video of Thomas Homer-Dixon, especially from the one-hour mark to the end.) Category: Intentional Community
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September 15, 2008
Herd Mentality
![]() Image of stampede from this Yorkshire UK site In times of great uncertainty, most people look for a leader to tell them what they should do, or for an agent to do it for them. It would be hard to imagine a time with more social, political and economic uncertainty than what we’re facing right now. Our problem is that we don’t have any good leaders. Our heads of state are as clueless as the rest of us. CEOs of large companies are finding their businesses unmanageable. As much as the media try to present us with simple dichotomies — choices between two clearly different alternatives — we know that nothing today is that simple, and we’re justifiably skeptical of such oversimplifications. And the agents and ‘experts’ we entrust with things we don’t understand are mostly just in it for themselves, and in it for the short haul. So what do we do? Generally, we follow the herd. We listen to trusted peers, and do what they do. We ask them how they’re voting, what they’re buying, what they like and dislike, who they use to do things for them, and we (more than likely) do the same. The problems with herd mentality are (1) it leads to stampedes i.e. dangerous overreactions to situations, and (2) it can be exploited by people who profit from triggering these stampedes and from the overreactions they produce. We see this in nominating convention ‘bounces’ and sudden sharp shifts in undecided voter preferences, that lead, in the absurd North American first-past-the-post gerrymandered attack-ad media-soundbite electoral systems, to disproportionate shifts in election results, to the point these results are often unintended, regretted, undemocratic and unrepresentative. We see it, too, in huge price swings for commodities (which benefit Big Oil and other price-fixing oligopolies), for stocks (which benefit commissioned brokers and agents — the type that have destroyed the US financial sector by making reckless investments, taking obscene salaries and leaving the under-collateralized businesses they’ve gouged in ruins), and for real estate (which benefits the corrupt slash-and-burn development and property speculation industry). We see it in armies of overpaid lawyers who produce exactly nothing in our economy and exploit our ignorance and fear to line their own pockets by stirring up needless, unproductive and expensive enmity and then screwing both sides. The cost of all this to citizens is obvious and incalculable. We have an economy that has been hollowed out, whose GDP is computed not by the benefits that accrue to citizens, but by the output of the war industry and useless zero-value financial, legal, “management”, agency and brokerage “services”, by the rape of our land and resources, the pollution of our environment, the theft of property and dignity by the rich from the poor, and by mountains of litigation, misery, waste, bureaucracy and debt. Basically, we are being used by those who have or seek undeserved power or undeserved wealth. They exploit our ignorance and they exploit our fear. They exploit unfair and under-regulated systems that governments have corrupted and squeezed dry while they pocketed the payouts from the industry barons and political hacks that encouraged them. And we’re foolish enough to believe the ‘experts’ who tell us they know how to run these systems that are so complex we can’t even speak their language, when these ‘experts’ are nothing but paid hacks feeding at the same trough, and are nearly as surprised as we are when these fragile and exhausted systems and entities implode. There are only three ways we can fight back. The first is to fight ignorance by informing ourselves and our fellow citizens. By turning off the trashy television dreck and turning up at town halls where we can teach each other what is really going on. By holding not just the bankrupt and dysfunctional educational system but the media accountable for failure to inform: Suppose there were periodic tests of public knowledge and awareness in each community, and if the majority of people failed, the licenses of the media in that area would be pulled and offered to those who could better inform the citizenry about what is really important and essential to a functioning democracy and productive, healthy citizenry. The second is to fight corruption. We need to restore regulation, smash oligopolies, and prosecute exploitative behaviour. We need to tax speculation out of existence. We need to cap agency fees, management fees and commissions at a reasonable salary for the ‘professional’ time expended, and have those fees forfeited if the agent performs significantly worse than an ‘amateur’ would have done. The third is to fight fear. Part of the collective fear also stems from ignorance, but some of it is deliberately fomented. And some of it is the result of the huge degree of complication and uncertainty that result from the massive concentration of power and wealth in relatively few hands, far removed from the impact of the decisions they make. We fear, mostly, when things are out of our control. Recent studies suggest that in hierarchical organizations, those at the top are the least stressed because they have authority (control) commensurate with their responsibility. Those at the bottom, with the least responsibility but almost no authority, have the highest rates of stress-related illness. These studies also imply that egalitarian, community-based, networked enterprises and communities are the least stressed, and least fearful, because they have more control over their own lives. So the way to fight fear is through decentralization, relocalization, and the breaking up of large efficient organizations (social, political, economic) into much smaller local community-based, autonomous and self-sufficient effective organizations. Small is beautiful. None of this is really surprising. We know it, intuitively, and from we’ve studied in history, economics and social studies. But making it happen, in the face of the immense neoconservative and neoliberal push for more centralization, more globalization, less investment in education and less regulation, is another matter. Until that happens, we’ll continue to be driven, an ignorant and fearful herd, into stampedes bythe corrupt individuals who stand to benefit from them. Be careful you don’t get trampled. Category: Our Culture
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I‘m on my way from San Jose to Vancouver and thence to Bowen Island for a course on The Art of Hosting (a collection of event facilitation and problem-solving methodologies). Despite the fact that Open Space, one of those methodologies, makes enormous conceptual sense, and should work brilliantly as a means to help a large, diverse group of people address complex problems, I’ve been disappointed with the Open Space sessions I’ve participated in. They were full of optimism and possibility, but somehow the collective wisdom of these ‘crowds’ just never really emerged.





The second part of the book describes the visioning process and the psychology of change, since moving from our current economic model to a relocalized, resilient economy is a drastic change. The exercises for coping with such change are interesting: One for example says to turn the peak oil curve (the ‘normal’ curve) upside down, so that instead of thinking of the decline of oil supply and production as a descent, you think of it as a recovery from a deep and difficult addiction. Readers are shown how to create a vibrant future state vision using scenario approaches, encompassing local self-sufficiency, permaculture, leisure time, resilience, excellent food and health.


