Dave Pollard's environmental philosophy, creative works, business papers and essays.
In search of a better way to live and make a living, and a better understanding of how the world really works.



March 29, 2009

Links of the Week: March 28, 2009

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 22:49


Atlantic Fin Sector Charts

The US Behaves Like An Emerging-Market Corporate-Crony Nation: From a former IMF Chief Economist, in the Atlantic, a familiar story, except that, unlike Russia and Argentina and other emerging nations, the US is ‘too big to be allowed to fail’ (charts above are from this article). This is essential reading, and the ‘hopeful’ scenario on its final page is bone-chilling (thanks to Glenn Greenwald for the link):

The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time…

“Typically, these countries are in a desperate economic situation for one simple reason—the powerful elites within them overreached in good times and took too many risks. Emerging-market governments and their private-sector allies commonly form a tight-knit—and, most of the time, genteel—oligarchy, running the country rather like a profit-seeking company in which they are the controlling shareholders.”

[Other stories this week on the economic crisis and bailouts in particular:

An Economy Where Almost Everything is Free: ABC interviews Wired’s Chris Anderson on how in the next economy, you’ll give everything except premium ‘wraparound’ services away for free, and ‘make money from zero’, and Jeff Jarvis on the transition to Peer Production, “giving up control of your customers” (actually, giving up control of your enterprise to your customers). Click on the ‘Show Transcript’ button to view the full text. Thanks to Cheryl for the link.

Do Just Three Things Per Day: If you’re having trouble Getting Things Done, Colleen says try limiting yourself to working on just three projects/activities per day.

The Genetically Modified Poem: Another perceptive and conceptive work from Dave B: “You hardly need to read anything else.

What Happens When Your Local Paper and TV Stations Disappear?: Rob says that, like in any ecosystem that is suddenly devastated, there’s a slow, innovative road to recovery.

The Wisdom of Crowds for Decision-Making: Caterina Fake is incubating Hunch, a new software that aggregates collective knowledge into decision trees that will help you make the decision by asking yourself, and answering, a series of questions. Thanks to Kathy Sierra (via Twitter) for the link.

Why Sharepoint (and Other Overengineered ‘Groupware’) Almost Never Works: Nancy summarizes the finding of just about every user I know that deployed groupware solutions are always suboptimal. Message to companies: Stop deploying these tools, and use simple, ubiquitous, user-friendly tools for social networking instead.

The Dysfunctional State of Info-Sharing in Business: A new survey says that people in organizations mostly share what they already know and agree on, and rely too much on consensus and not enough on critical discussion, and that the amount of discussion and info-sharing doesn’t correlate with the quality of resultant decisions. Thanks to Tony Karrer (via Twitter) for the link.

The Difference Between Libraries and Schools: A young video-blogger makes a clever case for unschooling. Thanks to Michelle P for the link.

Why We Shouldn’t Trust Experts: Experts are overrated, but because there’s no accountability, no tracking, we don’t realize that in the long run they’re no better at decision-making and forecasting than random. Want proof? Look at this hilarious prediction from 2006 by Wharton prof Jeremy Siegel, who is still telling us everything’s a deal today.

Shhh! Mexico is Not a Failing State: Yeah, let’s not get Mexico mad at us by suggesting that it is, or they might let loose their corrupt cops, gangster governments, drug mafia, starving and angry farmers, and tens of millions of economic refugees on us.

Obama Plans to Make Canada-US Border Crossing Even More Bureaucratic: For both our sakes, we should cancel NAFTA now. It never worked, except for the corporatists. And it’s looking more and more, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, as if Obama is just as clued out about the futility of imperial wars and massively complicated “security” processes and bureaucracies as Bush was.

An Acronym for Sustainability: LEARN: Localize, Educate, Adapt, Ration, Negative Population Growth. Thanks to Lucas for the links.

Just for Fun: Now you can use Twitter to get each of your plants to tweet you when they’re thirsty and thank you when they’re not. Thanks to Theresa in Vancouver for the link.

Thoughts for the Week:

  • From Jeremy: “Foresight reads weak signals, not major reports – Arie de Geus said ‘act with foresight: act on signals rather than on pain’.”
  • From Michael Wiik: “We know our body is more aware of reality than we are. It sees more than we see. It hears more than we hear.”
  • From children’s story writer Philip Pullman: “We don’t need a list of rights and wrongs, tables of do’s and don’ts: we need books, time, and silence. Thou shalt not is soon forgotten, but Once upon a time lasts forever.”

March 26, 2009

Friday Flashback: Chris Lott’s Information Fluency and Social Fluency

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 23:12


A repost of an article from one year ago

information fluency chris lott

After Nancy White pointed me to Chris Lott’s articles on Northern Voice, and on love, and Chris replied to my Tuesday post on how easily we unintentionally hurt each other through our actions, I did a bit more research on Chris’ work and discovered the remarkable chart above on Information Fluency. Chris put this together a couple of years ago for an IT audience and has since expanded on it, but for me it produced an immediate aha!

Our professional ‘value’ really is a function of the extent of, and our ability to integrate, our knowledge, our thinking competencies, and our communication competencies. Insight depends on our ability to apply critical thinking to what we know. Reportage is the application of our communication skills to what we know. Rhetoric is the articulation of our thinking. And the ability to do all of these things in an integral way is what Chris calls ‘information fluency’.

I think this is brilliant, and it got me thinking about how this model could be broadened to represent our social fluency — our ability to function socially in the modern complex world, to be of use socially to others in our communities. The chart below is what I came up with.
social fluency
What this chart (the part in black letters) says is that:

  1. Our social value to others is a function of 
    1. our knowledge, 
    2. our thinking competency (critical, creative and imaginative), 
    3. our communication skills (conversation, presentation and demonstration), and 
    4. our ability to integrate these three things.
  2. This ability to integrate these three things gives rise to 
    1. insight, ideas and new perspectives (application of thinking competency to knowledge), 
    2. reportage and stories (application of communication skills to knowledge), 
    3. rhetoric and provocation (articulation of our thinking competency), and 
    4. art (the expression of thinking competency applied to knowledge). Chris and I love the addition of art, in its broadest sense (the re-presentation of reality), to the model. We are all artists.
  3. This ability to integrate is social fluency. If we represented individuals’ different social fluency graphically, those with high levels of fluency would have larger circles (more knowledge, greater thinking competency and communication skills) with greater overlap (better integration of these three things).

In thinking about this further and reading Nancy White’s blog, I realized that what was missing from the model was learning. I realized that the model was from the perspective of the actor (presenter, demonstrator, creator, artist) and not the perspective of the reactor (audience, listener, student, learner).

It occurred to me that since social activity is like a dance, there should be a ‘mirror’ set of attributes for effective response-ability (responsibility). My first cut at these is in red brackets above:

  1. Our ability to derive social value from others (i.e. to learn) is a function of 
    1. our openness to others’ knowledge and ideas, 
    2. our learning competency (ability to learn),
    3. our attention skills, and 
    4. our ability to integrate these three things.
  2. This ability to integrate these three things gives rise to 
    1. understanding (openness to new ideas and knowledge, and the learning competency to process it), 
    2. appreciation (openness to new ideas and knowledge, and the attention skills to be aware of them), 
    3. self-change (attention skills to be aware of change opportunities, and the learning competency to be able to apply them), and 
    4. improvisation (the ability to integrate openness, learning competency and attention skills as a ‘reactor’, a learner).
  3. Again, this ability to integrate is social fluency. We exhibit social fluency inter-act-ively, as actors (though art) and as re-actors (through improvisation).

What’s interesting to me about this is that some people are terrific artists (they re-present reality well, as professors, writers, presenters etc.) but not very good improvisers (they are antisocial or not open to new ideas and new learning). This is a terrible shame — such people are underskilled for a peer-to-peer world where social exchange is two-way. Likewise, there are some great improvisers (people who have learned a great deal) who are unskilled at expressing that learning, ‘passing it on’.

It would be interesting to see a social network map that depicted individuals not just as dots (nodes) but with their six circles. This could show what people value in others in their networks/communities, and what they offer, and how that effects both their ‘popularity’ and the strength of the community as a whole.

So what can we do, as individuals, to improve our social fluency — to become better artists and improvisers? I think the first step is self-knowledge — to know what our strengths and weaknesses are in each of the six circles. And the second step is practice, with others who are both better and worse than we are at each.

What do you think of this model? Have I overloaded it? Is it useful? Is it missing something? Where does presence fit into it? Where does love fit?.

How to Save the World? Ask the Right Questions

Filed under: Working Smarter — Dave Pollard @ 10:57


life is a verb
At a conference last year of some of the world’s most renowned and experienced researchers, I asked the question: “What is the defining characteristic of great research?” The most impressive answer I heard had nothing to do with diligence, breadth or depth of work, or even analytical quality. It was:

“It asks important questions.”

Note that it doesn’t need to answer them. What makes a question important is that it is a gateway, a key, an avenue of exploration, a means of “just helping people get started“. And that it is novel, not obvious (except perhaps in hindsight), provocative, and insightful.

That’s a lot to ask of a question. But such questions are not only the key to great research, they are key to all sorts of doors that, in our world of imaginative poverty, would otherwise remain closed, unexamined. Doors such as:

  1. How to heal someone who is suffering. Can you tell me about it, talk me through it so I understand? can be a great question for helping those in pain put it in perspective, name it, get it out from inside them, and that can be the start of healing. It’s usually more important to seek to understand than to proffer solutions. Ask the person to tell you a story. Listen and ask questions until you understand. Chances are when you do, they’ll feel better about it, just by this process.
  2. How to get someone unstuck. What do you think is holding you back? and What does your heart (or what do your instincts) tell you? are great questions for moving people forward.
  3. How to make time for important activities instead of just urgent ones. If you didn’t do this (urgent) task, now or ever, in five year’s time who would really care? is a great question for helping people learn to say ‘no’.
  4. How to create a great Natural Community. What is it about certain places that cause you to love them, seek them, be drawn in by them, get homesick when you’re away from them? is a great community-creating question.
  5. How to create a great Natural Enterprise. Who needs your gift now? and What’s in your ’sweet spot’? and  How could we make this easier, or more engaging? are great enterprise-creating questions.
  6. How to create a great Natural Economy. Why do we need growth? and What would a world without the need for money look like? are great economy-creating questions.
  7. How to create a great process for Natural Learning. What do people love doing so much they would do it for free? is a great learning process-creating question.
  8. How to break through a really intractable, wicked problem. What would it look like if the people suffering from this problem had the capacity to solve it themselves? is a great intractable problem-busting question.

(Lots more possible applications, and lots more important questions you could pick, but you get the idea.)
Great questions are opening, not narrowing. They smash dichotomies rather than funneling people into them.

Great questions are an invitation to great conversation.

Many great questions start with “What if…?”

And, perhaps most important, great questions tap into things that people care about. Great questions + passion = a recipe for moving forward, energetically and enthusiastically.

So how do we learn how to identify and pose important questions? Here are some ways that have worked for me:

  • Give yourself time to reflect, think, decide. The number one problem business executives tell me they face today is that they don’t have enough time to really stop and think about what they’re doing, and other possibilities. The Obama Wall Street bailout gang are perfect examples of this.
  • Be fully present (intellectually, emotionally, sensually, physically) as you think about an issue or challenge. Give it your full attention. Trust your instincts. Then suppose.
  • Practice imagining possibilities. 
  • Change your point of view: How might this be seen from a completely different perspective? How do others see it? Get outside yourself, and outside your head.
  • Create stories — future state, other world, other time, other culture. Make it up. Questions will follow, and some of them will be important.
  • Play — games, simulations, improvisations, “what if”.
  • Have conversations and collaborations — with imaginative, objective (but caring), thoughtful, informed (but not too lost in the details) people. Draw on the wisdom of crowds.
  • Suspend your disbelief. Sometimes ‘impossible’ questions are the most important ones.
  • Don’t pay attention to the critics. Vexatious and negative people will drain you. They think all questions are foolish. Laugh them off, boot them out, do whatever it takes to keep their toxic attitude from preventing you from doing what they ‘know’ is impossible.
  • Practice thinking differently.

What’s holding you back from doing what you want to do, intend to do, love doing? What important question could you ask yourself about that challenge that might change everything?

Want to save the world, and yourself? Start by asking the right, smart, creative, provocative, important questions.

March 24, 2009

Energy Descent, and A World Without Property

Filed under: Preparing for Civilization's End — Dave Pollard @ 01:49


HTSTW Sys 1
HTSTW Sys 2
Pre-civilization and gatherer-hunter cultures have operated successfully for millennia without the concept of property — or what the Bushies hawked for the past eight years as “The Ownership Society”. The objective of such a society is to give you the feeling that you have been given something by the government/powers that be, namely land that belongs to all creatures of the planet, and that you should therefore be grateful, put your nose to the grindstone, and do what the government and your employer tell you.

This is an enormous fraud. As all non-civilization cultures will tell you, we belong to the land, it does not belong to us. We have no “property rights” except to the extent we all agree (brainwashed idiots that we are) that we will accept this fraud as legitimate.

Why and how did we get here? Partly because it was/is expedient for governments and the rich and powerful: If they throw us an ownership bone, then we forfeit the ability to criticize their theft of most of the Earth’s land and resources for their private use. It’s their means of co-opting us. Once we buy the basic fraud, then we also buy the nonsense that we should slave away all our lives to buy enough ‘property’ to be secure and happy, that everyone has the ‘right’ to do what they want with ‘their’ property (pollute it, sell it for speculative gain, acquire more of it cheap through bribery of politicians or extortion of the poor, weak and ignorant, and then flip it for an obscene profit, etc.), and that an economic system that is based on stealing property from others, from nature and from future generations, and ‘developing it’ (while externalizing all of the related costs), is somehow a ‘productive’ economy. The consequence has been the exhausted and unsustainable way of living depicted in the lower of the two charts above.

If we had a world without property, it would work something like this:

  1. Land would only be ‘borrowed’ from future generations and from nature, not bought or sold. 
  2. Any use of land (including gardening and building) would only be done by collective agreement of the community, for the community’s interest. No one outside the community would be able to touch the land in any way, other than visiting it.
  3. Use of the land would be zero net footprint — no use would be permitted that lessened the utility of the land for other creatures or for future generations. You could only take out what you replenished. All use would have to be sustainable and be such that, if abandoned, the land would quickly return to its pre-use state. There would therefore be no ‘permanent’ structures, and only local natural materials would be permitted in gardening, building or other uses.
  4. Land that could not comfortably and naturally sustain human beings on this basis would not be inhabited by human beings. Most of Canada, ‘my’ country, for example, would be very sparsely inhabited by gatherer-hunter cultures, with the possible exception of the West Coast, which because of its climate and growing season could support a somewhat higher human population density.

Such a world would, of necessity, have a lot fewer people than our world. It would have a steady-state economy — zero growth. It would not have to worry about war, the End of Oil, the End of Water, or climate change, because resource use would be low and population self-limited to the carrying capacity of the land (so there would be no need to go to war for more land or resources). While there might well be short, violent inter-tribal skirmishes over the territory each ‘tribe’ belongs to, these would be brief and limited. Many of the modern problems that are related to over-population (epidemic diseases, chronic diseases, poverty, desertification and soil impoverishment, food insecurity and famine etc. etc.) would not occur. We would live long, healthy, peaceful, joyful lives, sustainably, following the natural process depicted in the top chart above.

The problem, now, is that we can’t get there from here. Too much of our culture — our political, social, economic, health and educational systems for a start — are built on the rocky, crumbling foundation of human entitlement to unlimited population growth and unlimited use of and despoilment of the Earth’s resources. We can’t ‘go back’ from the new man-made systems depicted in the lower chart above, to the natural systems, depicted in the upper chart, that prevailed for virtually all of the millions of years of life on Earth prior to our modern civilization.

Some neo-survivalists I know are hoping that our civilization culture collapses soon and fast, on the assumption that a better world would rise from its ashes. In the first place, that’s a dubious assumption. Many human civilizations have been built on the same faulty basis, and there is no evidence that we would learn from our mistakes and create a new civilization any better than the one that is killing us, and our planet, today. And the collapse will be truly ghastly, and will take decades if not centuries of enormous suffering and misery before it ends. Civilizational collapses have always been like that — the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Anyone wishing for an end of our civilization soon is ignorant of history, and willing to condemn future generations to horrors — horrors that our generation set in motion — with a barbaric ‘ends justify the means’ rationale (the kind of thinking that neocons use). Allowing our civilization to collapse, without doing anything, is unthinkable and cruel.

Many of the new conservation and steady-state economy models prescribe something called a ‘energy descent‘ strategy. The idea is to toggle the ‘overconsumption’ box in yellow in the lower chart above to the ’sustainable consumption’ box in the upper chart above, in such a way as it causally flips the entire lower chart to the upper chart, and, voila — we’re saved. Or, if we’re too late to do so, at least the collapse is made much more bearable. The energy descent strategy is described by the Transition movement as:

A scenario in which humanity has successfully adapted to the declining net energy availability [and perhaps climate change impacts] and has become more localised and self-reliant. It is a term favoured by people looking towards energy peak as an opportunity for positive change rather than an inevitable disaster.

Well, maybe. This suggests an adaptive strategy rather than a proactive one, that we can’t change human behaviour (excessive consumption) globally, so instead we can adapt to the consequences of our global excess locally, so when the global civilization collapses, the pockets of Transition Towns will survive. It’s an interesting approach, and one that appeals to idealism (and perhaps selfish survivalism) sufficiently to have spurned hundreds of such Transition movements, vaguely coordinated. These Transition Towns aren’t willing to give up property ownership, trade, imported technology or any of the other trappings of the Industrial Growth Economy that they don’t see any need to jettison. But, like the toxic financial assets that are bringing down the global financial system (and perhaps with it, the Obama administration), these trappings of the economy and civilization that have produced the lower chart above, will, if retained, sooner or later lead to its re-establishment. We can’t have our cake and eat it too.

The only way to rid ourselves of our toxic addiction to overpopulation and overpopulation is to go ‘cold turkey’ — to give up on our civilization entirely and create a new society, self-managed, self-sufficient, independent in all respects (including belief systems) from civilization culture. If you know any addicts, you know how hard this is to do, the low probability of success, the high rate of relapse, and the terrible damage the transition to a healthier, unaddicted way of life can inflict on everyone connected to the addict. Transition Towns will have to go ‘cold turkey’ on their addiction not only to oil, but to imported goods, many modern technologies (including medicines) that rely on the unsustainable Industrial Growth Economy, the concept of ‘property’, and lots more. Breaking the cycle of a hundred addictions all at once. Not easy. Methadone please.

The following chart shows the way nature generally deals with species whose populations and resource consumption get out of hand:

HTSTW Sys 3
In short, as civilization collapses, we’re going to see horrific scarcities, creating massive personal and collective stresses that will break both individuals (to the point of suicide, terrorism and murder) and nations (to the point of insurrection, civil war, and anarchy — a hundred Afghanistans). We’re going to see dreadful pandemic diseases and poverty and famine that will be utterly shattering, like the abject horror the world witnessed during the Irish potato famine where millions simply sat around, hopeless and increasingly gaunt, until they died an agonizing death alongside those they loved and couldn’t save. We’re going to see the kind of spiritual vacuum and decay that is eating Russia and the former Soviet republics alive today, with population and life expectancy plummeting, drug addiction at epidemic levels, and crime and gang violence out of control. It is nature’s last and most reluctant way of restoring to sustainable populations species whose numbers and voraciousness have run amok.

This is not doomsaying or fear-mongering — this has all happened before, often. The latest of many cycles of desperate human cannibalism is barely a century past. How well will these Transition communities fare when all this is going on all around them?

That’s not to say I am opposed to the Transition movement. I think it will provide a valuable model for the disintegrated society that is left behind after civilization collapses, to study and consider in starting again. I think its self-sufficiency and moderation and collaboration will be perceived very positively by those who bear the scars of a civilization that crashed because of fragility and dependence and excess and greed and disconnection. But it will be the idea, not the movement, that survives.

My hope is that that idea will include the belief that we belong to the land, and not it to us. And that by living light and responsibly on the land, we can live, as humans did before ‘civilizations’, for a million years, in balance, in joy, in connection with all life on Earth. We can live, essentially, as the ancient myths of pre-civilization cultures tell us, forever.

March 22, 2009

Shouldn’t Unanswered E-mail, To Dos, and Calendar Entries Be a Single ‘Application’?

Filed under: Working Smarter — Dave Pollard @ 23:19


e-productivity

I gave up on Getting Things Done methodologies when I realized that, by saying no to urgent but ultimately unimportant tasks, I could keep all my “to dos” in my head.

Or so I thought. I’ve discovered that I have a lot more “to do” lists than I realized. Here are some of them:

  1. My work “to do” list, which I keep in a Lotus Notes task list because it replicates to my Blackberry (though it often seems to be out of sync). Each item in this list has a clipped-together set of papers supporting it, which I carry around in my computer back-pack.
  2. My personal “to do” list, which I keep in various formats, including scraps of paper and the new Google task list which integrates with GMail.
  3. My blog “to do” list, which I keep in a separate GMail e-mail folder, because most of these “to dos” originate from e-mails (e.g. updates to blogroll and e-mail address book).
  4. My GMail personal e-mail inbox, which consists of (a) e-mails to which I have yet to respond and (b) e-mails which are actually “to dos”, and which should probably be with list 3, except that they are more urgent so I want to keep them in front of me.
  5. My “books to buy” list (handwritten, for when I’m in the bookstore).
  6. My “music to buy or download” list (handwritten, for when I’m in a CD store).
  7. My work Lotus Notes e-mail inbox, which consists of (a) e-mails to which I have yet to respond and (b) e-mails which are actually “to dos”, and which should probably be with list 1, except that the e-mail provides a lot of detail on what needs to be done, so I can’t be bothered to transcribe it to a “to do” list).
  8. My work Lotus Notes Calendar, which consists of both (a) scheduled work and (b) personal appointments (I gave up keeping two separate calendars, even though people at work now know when I’m playing poker and where I go on vacation), and occasionally (c) times I’ve “blocked out” for certain urgent or time-consuming “to dos”.
  9. Gmark Google Bookmark “to dos”consisting of (a) links to include in my next Links of Week, (b) links to pages I intend to read “when I have time” (i.e. never get around to these), (c) links to pages to add to my blogroll (actually belongs in list 3), and (d-e) links to books to buy and music to download (actually belong to lists 5 & 6).
  10. My blog post ideas “to do” list, which I usually keep in (a) Nvu (html) files with notes for future articles, but which sometimes I also keep in (b) a GMail e-mail folder if there’s an essential link or notes from a reader that provoked the idea.
  11. My “to read” hard copy piles, which consist of (a) one pile of articles and magazines in my computer backback (which I take to work), and (b) one stack of books and personal papers by my bed.
  12. My voice mail “inboxes”, for my work and home numbers.

Because my Lotus Notes stuff is behind the corporate firewall (and because this stuff replicates to my Blackberry, which my employer pays for), I continue to use Lotus Notes applications stuff (lists 1, 7 and 8) separate from my Gmail applications stuff (lists 2, 3, 4, 9 and 10b). I could manually forward all my Lotus Notes e-mails to my Gmail account (my employer won’t allow this automatically, for security reasons), and copy everything in my Lotus Notes Calendar to a Google Calendar that everyone could see, but this would probably take more time than it would save.

Looking at these 12 “to do” lists, they fall into five main content categories: messages to process (list 3, 4ab, 7ab, 10b, 12), tasks (list 1, 2, 5, 6, 8c, 9cde), appointments (list 8ab), drafts to write (list 9a, 10a), and readings (list 9b, 11). Is there some way to combine these into a single list where everything is visible in one place at one glance? Is this more trouble than it’s worth? What is/are the best application(s) to use to achieve this?

I keep procrastinating on doing anything about this, because when I was sick and not working 2 1/2 years ago, the problem disappeared, so I figured that, when I retire (in the not too distant future) I won’t have to worry about it as much. But I’ve decided that a bit of time management now could save me some anxiety and time in the future, so here are my thoughts on this so far:

  • Google now allows you to recharacterize an e-mail (list 3, 4ab, 10b) as a task (i.e. move it into list 2, with a link retained to the archived e-mail that you can refer to as necessary). GMail now also allows you to work offline (i.e. it keeps a sync’d copy of your last three months’ messages, and your task list, on your ‘home’ computer), though this is still in beta. And I can, awkwardly, access my GTasks from my Blackberry. So theoretically I could close lists 1, 3, 4ab and 10b into list 2. But, alas, GTasks cannot be tagged like GMails — all tasks show up in one huge unsortable, unindexable list. This isn’t going to help. Yes, I know there are add-ons to Gmail and other Task apps (I’ve tried Remember the Milk) but they don’t allow you to recharacterize an e-mail as a task, don’t work offline and aren’t accessible from my Blackberry.
  • I’ve considered using my Calendar as my all-in-one “to do” list, by slotting all my tasks, messages to process, drafts to write, and readings into open time slots on the Calendar. This has the additional advantage of actually forcing me to prioritize and set deadlines for these things. Unfortunately, as we all know, other (usually urgent unimportant) things come along that get done instead, so I would be spending hours rescheduling a lot of these “to dos” again and again. This already happens with my list 1 items, which have a scheduling option that appears on my Calendar and my Blackberry.
  • What I do right now is print out lists 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 and 8 and keep them in a stack on top of list 11a. Each morning I scan these lists and asterisk which ones I intend to do that day. List 4 is constantly front-and-centre when I’m online, day and night. Lists 3, 9bc, 10b, and 11b, to be honest, almost never get looked at. Lists 9a and 10a get attention in the evening when I work on my blog. List 12 generally gets merged into list 1 regularly.
  • So it seems to me that what I’m looking for is something that integrates task lists (lists 1, 2, 5, 6, 8c, 9cde) together into one robust list, enables (but doesn’t mandate) calendaring of tasks, and allows messages (lists 3, 4ab, 7ab, 10b) to be recharacterized as tasks in this integrated list, with a link back to the pertinent message, which can then be removed from the inbox and archived. Tasks that are calendared (list 8c) would be highlighted in the task list. Net result — an empty inbox at the end of each day, and one integrated task list that, alongside your calendar, shows everything you have to do.
  • Getting Things Done application developer Eric Mack has developed such a tool, called eproductivity, but only for the Lotus Notes environment. It’s illustrated at the top of this post. Each message in your inbox can be moved to an existing project or action folder (task list entry) by dragging it to that folder in the right sidebar, or used to create a new project or action (task list entry) by dragging it to the appropriate icon in the left sidebar. Actions (one-off, or part of projects) in the task list that are assigned to specific dates and times are displayed in the Lotus Notes Calendar. Some of the eproductivity functionality is accessible on my Blackberry, though it’s not clear which parts. I suppose I could redirect all my GMail to Lotus Notes Mail to use this, but it seems a rather convoluted solution. 

So that’s where I stand now. I’m going to try out eproductivity. And I’m going to keep looking for something equivalent that works in the GMail environment. I’m stuck with Lotus Notes at work and I like GMail (because I can access it from any computer, and because it works with GTalk IM and other applications that I find much more useful than e-mail), so I’m not inclined to look at any applications that don’t build on one or the other. But I’m open-minded about it.

What works for you? Shouldn’t unanswered e-mails, “to dos” and calendar entries all be handled the same way, with a single application? How do you ‘work around’ the fact that they aren’t?

March 21, 2009

Links of the Week: March 21, 2009

Filed under: Our Culture / Ourselves — Dave Pollard @ 22:04


ecard1
ecard2
ecards, from the folks who brought you The Onion (marketing slogan: “when you care enough to press ’send’”); thanks to Ross Mayfield for the link

Bye, Sweet Dog: Astonishing, heart-wrenching description of animal emotions by Melissa Holbrook Pierson, author of The Place You Love is Gone. Also take a look at her newest post, on landscape and memory. Brilliant writing.

Why We Don’t Collaborate and Learn From Each Other: A long and clever rant by William on the separate solitudes we live in that, unbridged and disconnected, prevent us everywhere from achieving what is, if we only realized, in our common interest.

Fatal Harvest: The Tragedy of Industrial Agriculture: Dave Smith is excerpting from a book that exposes the big lies about Industrial Agriculture. “World hunger is not created by lack of food but by poverty and landlessness, which deny people access to food. Industrial agriculture actually increases hunger by raising the cost of farming, by forcing tens of millions of farmers off the land, and by growing primarily high-profit export and luxury crops.” Kinda takes the edge off Michelle Obama’s encouraging garden project.

Stop Ploughing!: A Devon (UK) farmer learns that the modern heresy of not ploughing and not using oil-based chemicals (permaculture) is the only way to create a sustainable farm. This is a long video (49 minutes) but worth the time. Thanks to Tree for the link.

recession scenes
Recession scenes, from boston.com: from top: (1) ‘tour’ bus takes visitors for a day’s viewing of foreclosed homes in Las Vegas; (2) part of a fleet of 57,000 new Chrysler SUVs sitting, unwanted by dealers, in Baltimore harbour; (3) unused and unneeded containers for Chinese exports pile up sky high in Hong Kong; thanks to Tree and Dale for the link

First Life Meets Second Life: Cheryl talks about Second Life, and how she came to it, in a radio broadcast on Australia’s ABC Radio National.

Ending the Canadian Seal Hunt: A Canadian Senator says it’s time to stop it. We’ll see if he gets anywhere. Thanks to Prad for the link.

Just for Fun

XKCD, Comics for Geeks (thanks to Karen H for the link)
Robin Williams, at a recent performance in the UK in front of royalty, talks about Obama and Bush (thanks to neighbour John for the link).

Thoughts for the Week:

From Viv McWaters, on giving others context for what we care about, and what we propose, by briefly telling others our personal story, our ‘big enough name‘:

Today Andrew Rixon introduced me to a model of time. The essence of it was this: The past gives you roots; the present gives you energy; and the future gives you wings… Instead of trying to encapsulate all of that in a single vision statement wouldn’t it be more productive to share with each other what grounds us, what energises us and what gives us wings – individually and collectively?

From George Eliot, on how our past haunts us, holds us back (thanks to Beth T for the link):

With memory set smarting like a reopened wound, a man’s past is not simply a dead history, an outworn preparation of the present: it is not a repented error shaken loose from the life: it is a still quivering part of himself, bringing shudders and bitter flavors and the tinglings of a merited shame.

From Oscar Wilde, on (thanks to Eve11 for the link):

A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world.

From Rick Steves, travel writer, in an interview with Salon.com:

A headline today said, “Americans lose 18 percent of their wealth.” Well, no, it wasn’t real wealth, it was a bubble. You’re down 18 percent? You’re not. It shouldn’t have been up there in the first place. So get over it. Shut up. Go to work, produce stuff that has value. I really think the days are gone, I hope, when people can rearrange the furniture and get rich on it. You’ve got to produce something.

From Karl Paulnack, welcoming address to freshman students at Boston Conservatory of Music (thanks to Beth P for the link):

If we were a medical school, and you were here as a med student practicing appendectomies, you’d take your work very seriously because you would imagine that some night at 2:00 AM someone is going to waltz into your emergency room and you’re going to have to save their life. Well, my friends, someday at 8:00 PM someone is going to walk into your concert hall and bring you a mind that is confused, a heart that is overwhelmed, a soul that is weary. Whether they go out whole again will depend partly on how well you do your craft.

You’re not here to become an entertainer, and you don’t have to sell yourself. The truth is you don’t have anything to sell; being a musician isn’t about dispensing a product, like selling used Chevies. I’m not an entertainer; I’m a lot closer to a paramedic, a firefighter, a rescue worker. You’re here to become a sort of therapist for the human soul, a spiritual version of a chiropractor, physical therapist, someone who works with our insides to see if they get things to line up, to see if we can come into harmony with ourselves and be healthy and happy and well.

Frankly, ladies and gentlemen, I expect you not only to master music; I expect you to save the planet. If there is a future wave of wellness on this planet, of harmony, of peace, of an end to war, of mutual understanding, of equality, of fairness, I don’t expect it will come from a government, a military force or a corporation. I no longer even expect it to come from the religions of the world, which together seem to have brought us as much war as they have peace. If there is a future of peace for humankind, if there is to be an understanding of how these invisible, internal things should fit together, I expect it will come from the artists, because that’s what we do. As in the concentration camp and the evening of 9/11, the artists are the ones who might be able to help us with our internal, invisible lives.

March 20, 2009

Friday Flashback: Ten Parameters for 21st Century Innovation

Filed under: Working Smarter — Dave Pollard @ 17:03


This is a repost of part of an article I published in the newsletter of the World Innovation Foundation, and later on my blog, two years ago.

 research and innovation

Innovation has addressed basic human needs in past ages of our civilization, and is in the process of doing so to address the pressing human issues of today: chronic and epidemic disease, crime and terrorism, waste and pollution (including global warming), urban decay, famine, overpopulation, biodegradation and ecosystem exhaustion, unemployment, inequity, scarcity of critical resources, loss of biodiversity, economic overextension and unsustainability, chronic violence and war.

In each age of our civilization, however, the scale, complexity and interconnectedness of these issues have grown exponentially. Innovations and interventions that address one of these issues are increasingly inadequate as each new focused solution ignores or even exacerbates (by introducing new threats, vulnerabilities, wastes and opportunities for misuse) other and new problems.

Increasingly, too, the economic system that was designed to introduce and scale innovations has become antithetical to innovation: It is cheaper and less risky for a corporation to buy (or buy out and suppress) an innovation than to develop one itself. Many ‘innovative’ startups are conceived purely for an early sellout to a large corporation often disinclined to introduce it when it threatens its existing brand. Intellectual property laws in many countries allow and encourage the patenting of entire processes and the intimidation, by armies of lawyers, of entrepreneurs who encroach on any aspect of those processes. And corporations are rewarded for schemes that enable them to circumvent social and environmental laws to ‘competitive advantage’, and now arguably spend more energy trying to defeat regulations that were designed for the public good than they spend on initiatives that serve the public good.

So it seems to me that the innovation model that worked in the industrial era is no longer serving us in this new and more complex era, and a new model is needed. What might this new model look like? I believe it must have the following attributes:

  1. It needs to start with achieving as deep an understanding of the current problems as is humanly possible. Things are the way they are for a reason, and many organizations put too little effort into understanding those reasons because it is easier and cheaper to use marketing to ‘manufacture’ the need and consent for a new product. We need to appreciate that  uninformed, myopic attempts to grapple with complex problems cannot work. Before we can make it right, we need to understand what’s wrong. This isn’t completely possible in any complex system, but it’s essential to grapple with appreciating how things got to where they are, to optimize the probability that the innovations we come up with will help rather than making things worse. This is where scientists come in: We need a lot more of you, we need to give you more resources to do research, we need to help you collaborate across geographies and disciplines more effectively, and we need to enable you to focus on issues that are critical to our species’ survival, not issues that offer the greatest short-term ROI to some self-serving and indifferent corporation.
  1. It needs to be holistic and multi-disciplinary. You can’t solve a complex problem with a merely complicated solution. We need to look at the implications of our ideas and innovations across all areas of our society and our world. Cross-disciplinary teams that share a sense of urgency and purpose are the best means to achieve this broader understanding and skill-set.
  1. It needs to be substantially voluntary. That means it must be freed from the for-short-term-profit constraints of the current economic system. The economy in which such efforts naturally belong is the Gift Economy, an economy that is already healthy and flourishing, as exemplified by open source and peer production, by scientific exchanges, libraries, weblogs, wikis, file sharing and other free exchanges of information, by philanthropy without strings attached, and by mentoring done by parents and other volunteers. Innovators must have the time, energy, and passion to pursue ideas regardless of their profitability. To do this we need to recruit the right people. I believe Open Space methodology, and specifically its process of invitation, offers the best mechanism for attracting precisely the people needed to appreciate and address all of the different aspects of complex problems. I also suspect that our greatest opportunity in this regard is to tap those who are retired or close to retirement or working only part-time, who can afford to volunteer their time and who bring a lifetime of valuable experience to the task.
  1. It needs to be self-organized, non-hierarchical and collaborative. Hierarchical systems are inherently bureaucratic and frequently dysfunctional. As nature teaches us, self-organized systems are more adaptable, more flexible, more resilient. We are mostly inexperienced at working in such social structures, so we need to (re-)learn to do so. We have much to learn from indigenous cultures who have been doing this for millennia.
  1. It needs to be experimental and evolutionary. We learn from our mistakes, and the modern corporation has reached the point where promotion and production costs so much that failure is intolerable. Our new innovation model has to not only tolerate, but encourage mistakes. It must try a lot of different things, in parallel (for there is no time to waste) through experimentation and fast learning and then trying something a little different based on that learning, the way nature does. Our main product must be ‘working models’ – solutions that appear to work to solve some of our pressing global problems without exacerbating others. Then we must let them go, push them out of the nest. Some of these innovations may help us live better in the years before civilization’s collapse. Others may only be of use after that collapse, by the survivors who will know what didn’t work and will be urgently looking for alternative models that might, models that will make sense given the terrible knowledge they will then possess.
  1. It needs to involve new ways of thinking. Einstein famously said “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” We need some radical, even crazy thinking. Innovation is not incremental change and it is not arrived at analytically. And we need not only radical innovations; we need radical ways of innovating, more holistic, more intuitive, more collaborative, more discontinuous, more imaginative, and more connected to the wisdom and understanding of all life on Earth.

We need to start now, with a sense of urgency and shared purpose, to invent the future, one that will reach beyond and outlive the collapse of our civilization.

Ronald Wright, in his book A Short History of Progress, summarizes our human destiny by saying “It’s entirely up to us. If we fail — if we blow up or degrade the biosphere so it can no longer sustain us — nature will merely shrug and conclude that letting apes run the laboratory was fun for a while but in the end a bad idea.”

Let’s show Mr. Wright that the apes still have a trick or two up their sleeves.

March 19, 2009

Power Laws and Power Dynamics

Filed under: How the World Really Works — Dave Pollard @ 22:59


power curve
Christopher Allen has his article on social networks and power laws up today, and it’s worth a read. He makes the point that the size of a group or network is only one part of the social dynamic, because not all members of a group are ‘equal’, and, particularly in larger groups, a small proportion of members tends to dominate. This is all according to the Power Law theory (Clay Shirky is most famously associated with this), which is illustrated above: Most members of such groups fall in the “long tail” to the right side of the curve; each of them has relatively little influence on the group as a whole, but collectively, because of their large number, this “tail” can be long enough to “wag the dog” (if they’re sufficiently organized and enabled and inclined to do so).

What interests me, more than the non-egalitarian nature of such groups (especially hierarchies), are the power dynamics of groups that are purportedly equal. We have been conditioned by the multiple hierarchies in most of the groups we participate in (including families, workplaces, and recreational teams), to wait for ‘leaders’ to present themselves (or be assigned) in the groups we are part of. We tend to find self-organization opportunities (or necessities) bewildering — there’s kind of a tacit “who’s in charge” question floated, a ‘holding back’ waiting for someone to direct the group.

It doesn’t take long, however, with a bit of practice in Open Space or in unorganized collaborative activities (”pick-up” sports, karaoke, dances, and some collective work-bees), we quickly re-learn the art of self-organization. Once you get used to self-organization, it’s hard to put up with ‘organized’ groups again, with their bullies, louder voices, self-designated leaders/followers and wallflowers. So you get a complex power dynamic working:

  • The people who are used to holding sway (people normally in a position of wealth or power) will naturally talk first, and start to display dominance behaviours (talking loudly, interrupting, aggressive body language, pulling rank, assigning tasks, making decisions ‘for’ the group)
  • The people who think they have something to say but who are unable or unwilling to exercise dominance behaviours to ‘compete’ with the first group will disengage, and their behaviours will show it (looking away, multitasking, crossed arms, moving towards exits, daydreaming)
  • The people who want to curry favour with the first group will start exhibiting submissive behaviours towards them (leaning forward body language, nods)
  • The people who are overwhelmed and reluctant to contribute out of fear or shyness will start exhibiting non-directed submissive behaviours (legs drawn up, self-touching, intertwined fingers) and trying to decide who to defer to; anything they are coaxed to say will be immediately discounted or ignored

Some of these signals and dynamics are quite subtle, and many of them are not even noticed by others. If you have come to prefer self-organized egalitarian groups but work for an organization where this is rarely or never authentically practiced (most hierarchies pretend to have/tolerate egalitarian groups, but this is only for effect, and such groups actually have little or no real authority), this can be so exasperating as to make you culturally incompatible with the organization — you’ll find hierarchical group activities so toxic you’ll quit, or your rancor or disengagement will get you fired.

My sense is that this cultural tension is creating a constant power disequilibrium in many organizations:

  • People who are at the top of hierarchies are finding it harder to attract and retain sufficient obedient submissives and patient sycophant climbers
  • Hierarchies with too many ambitious dominants are being crippled by more and more violent dominance competitions (leading to high burnout rates)
  • Some former egalitarians are being seduced by increasing power and wealth to behave like, and finally become, top-of-hierarchy dominants
  • Mostly-egalitarian groups are being exhausted by the need to constantly reprove/expel incorrigible dominants and ‘bring out’ incorrigible submissives

Picture a society made up of equal numbers of chimps (hierarchy, top-down organized culture) and bonobos (egalitarian, self-organized culture). Yes I know these are somewhat exaggerated sterotypes. The chimps had worked fine together when they were a monoculture, because everyone quickly learned their place in the hierarchy and decisions were made and followed accordingly. The bonobos had worked fine together when they were a monoculture, because they worked out everything by consensus without power dynamics.

But now they’re mixed together, and worse, the older members of the diverse culture are mostly chimps and the younger members are mostly bonobos. The dominant chimps are unhappy because the bonobos won’t defer and obey. The submissive chimps are unhappy because it looks like chaos — no one is clearly in control, telling them what to do. And the bonobos are unhappy because the dominant chimps are bullying and not listening, and the submissive chimps are not participating and speaking up.

In the real world, the power dynamics are at once much subtler and much more complex. There is no truly egalitarian culture, and many of us have blind spots as to our use of and acquiescence to power. Nor is there any truly hierarchical culture — we don’t always defer to people higher in the hierarchy (especially if there is no direct line of responsibility or authority), nor do we always want or expect people lower in the hierarchy to defer to us. Besides, position in the hierarchy is usually subjective and context-determined. So in fact the power dynamics and cultural tensions described in the bullets above are ever-present in almost every group or organization to which we belong.

So 7 and 50 may be ideal sizes for Work Groups and Enterprise Groups, but their success will be strongly determined by the cultural mix and power dynamics of the group members. That’s even true, the idealist in me acknowledges with a sigh, when the Group is substantially self-selected. We cannot know the personality and power culture of people until we’ve worked with them in a variety of situations. And of course, we don’t even know ourselves perfectly, nor how we can delude ourselves, or be seduced, to act in ways very different from those we claim to espouse. Some of the constant power struggle will be going on inside each of us.

March 18, 2009

The Optimal Size of Groups

Filed under: Using Weblogs and Technology — Dave Pollard @ 22:40


Christopher Allen of the Life With Alacrity blog has expanded his articles on group size, with an article on community sizes and another on personal circle sizes. The latter are our own self-centred circles (those we’re in the middle of), while the former are circles of which we have chosen to be a member. The dynamics of the two, Christopher says, are different. Let’s start with the personal circles:

support circle The Support Circle (3-5 people) is the innermost, and consists of people you would seek help from in a crisis.

sympathy circle The Sympathy Circle (7-20 people, with a median of 10-15) are those whose death you’d find devastating, people you really care about.

trust circle The Trust Circle (40-200 people, with a median of about 120) are those people you trust and have strong personal ties with (you’d miss them if you/they ‘moved away’).

The Emotional Circle (median size of just under 300 people) are those people you have “weak ties” to, i.e. some kind of probably non-reciprocal ‘liking’ for. You’re probably familiar with ‘The Strength of Weak Ties‘ and the importance of this peripheral group of people in helping you find the people and opportunities that will have a dramatic effect on your life and happiness.

Christopher also refers to a group called ‘familiar strangers’, people you recognize but don’t know.

topology of circles

Taken together, these circles form a ‘topology’ that Christopher describes as follows:

Think of these circles as the ridge lines of a topographical map. An individual sits at the center, and around him lie many other people, fading slowly away as the distance increases. Winding through these topographical lines, like forests or rivers, are geographies of physical and emotional connection.

Kin are one of the most interesting geographies, because they lie all across the map. There’s a clump of them in the innermost circles, but there are also many who lie in the realm of Familiar Strangers, including those cousins and great-aunts who you only see at family gatherings, and whom you know nothing about. There are also forces being exerted upon the circles, acting like gravity to draw people together.

Turning to community sizes:

working groupWorking Groups (optimally 4-9 people, with a median of 7): Many studies suggest this size is optimal for communication, collaboration, and decision-making. Also works well for dinner parties and poker games. Beyond 9 and up to 25 members, groups get increasingly dysfunctional (12-15 is worst, so think twice about gathering your whole Sympathy Circle together for any purpose).

enterprise groupEnterprise Groups (optimally 25-75, with a median of 50): An enterprise is a systemic activity, a mutual undertaking with a common objective or focus of interest. This is the optimal size for guilds, associations, business enterprises, ‘unconferences’ and social networks — you get diversity and the ‘wisdom of crowds’ and critical mass for action, but the group is still self-manageable. Christopher calls this the ‘non-exclusive Dunbar number’ because such groups rarely have sufficient cohesion to attract anyone’s full-time or life-long energies. Beyond 75, groups again become increasingly dysfunctional, until, beyond the ‘official’ Dunbar number of 150, the geometrically increasing work needed to try to sustain any real cohesion, trust and participation outweighs the so-called ‘economies of scale’.

So what does all this mean for social networking, blogging, twittering, Natural Enterprise, intentional community, the future of work, etc.? Here are Pollard’s Hypotheses of Social Cohesion, so far hypothetical, except insofar as I’ve observed the dynamics in a lot of workplaces:

  1. If we want business to be agile, resilient and innovative, we should break all organizations down into small, autonomous enterprises, ideally with no more than 75 people each, and ideally focused on the local community they’re a part of, where their people and customers live (physically, or, if the product is made of bits rather than atoms, virtually). There really are no ‘economies of scale’ beyond this size. 
  2. As we move towards the World of Ends, more and more production will be Peer Production, and stuff will be made by networks of innovative small enterprises and Working Groups, not by large corporations. I describe how that will work here.
  3. The project teams I have worked on that have accomplished the most per-person per-hour have had memberships hovering around 7 or 50, with the smaller size (7) working best for short-term focused projects and projects that have a lot of shared and enduring passion among the members, and the larger size (50) working best for more ambitious, open-ended problem-solving projects where passion is more diffused or the members don’t know each other well. My guess is that Open Space events would work best with groups of about 50, though I may be wrong.
  4. Indigenous ‘uncivilized’ cultures generally had clans similar in size to the optimal Enterprise Groups, and gatherer-hunter groups similar in size to the optimal Working Groups. But because their ‘world’ of possible contacts was so much smaller than ours their Emotional Circle and Trust Circle would have been the same group, and that probably would have allowed them the ‘bandwidth’ to have a larger Sympathy Circle and Support Circle as well — in fact all four might have been the same, their ‘tribe’ or ‘clan’. So they would have had no need for nuclear ‘families’ or for an inner circle of ‘intimate’ friends for sympathy and support. I think one of the challenges of intentional communities is that some members, perhaps ‘naturally’, expect them to be the Support, Sympathy, Trust and Emotional Circle all wrapped up in one — unrealistic in our modern society. Perhaps intentional communities need to plan to create cohesive Support and Sympathy Circles within their membership, while encouraging the whole community to become a Trust Circle, so that they can expand beyond the Sympathy Circle size most seem to be stuck at. 
  5. My ‘Gravitational Community’ listed on the right sidebar of this blog, and the number of people I’m in regular two-way contact with (mostly as a result of my blog), and the number of people I follow on Twitter, all seem to be converging on 70-80 people, with about 40 of them ‘hard core’ and the others ever-changing, entering and leaving my orbit as I enter and leave theirs. There is substantial gravitational pull in these networks, with many of the members likewise connected to each other. These are people I think I would like to live in community with. I think this is personal, social Trust Circle gravity. My guess is that, for most people, a manageable Trust Circle is closer to the low end than the high end of the 40-200 range and below the 120 median. As I’ve spent more and more time online I think the ‘quality’ of these friendships (congruence of interests, mutual knowledge and respect) has grown even though fewer and fewer live in my physical neighbourhood. I acknowledge, however, that it’s hard (and sometimes risky) to move ‘virtual’ relationships into your Support and Sympathy Circles.

We are social creatures at heart, and increasing our understanding of social cohesion and group effectiveness is important, for our personal happiness and ability to live peacefully with each other, and to help us to find meaningful, productive work as our current economy crumbles. What does the topology of your various social networks and work communities look like?

And what could we do, instead of herding people into anonymous housing subdivisions and indifferent hierarchical corporations, to better reflect our desire for self-selected social connection and to improve our work effectiveness?

Top 4 drawings, taken from Christopher’s site, drawn by Nancy Margulies.
Postscript: Christopher is planning another article in this series, this time on power laws, and what happens when some members of groups are more equal than others.

March 17, 2009

Places to Intervene in a System (Restated for Bernanke and Geithner)

Filed under: Working Smarter — Dave Pollard @ 21:38


virtuous natural cycle
System diagram of the vicious cycle Industrial Economy (red, top) and the virtuous cycle Natural Economy (green, bottom)

Dana Meadows published what is probably her most famous work, Places to Intervene in a System, in 1997. In that article, she listed, in reverse order from least to most effective, the ten ways (later expanded to twelve) to bring about change in an organization, group, project, program or system. Think of a system as consisting of water pipes, valves (taps) and reservoirs. Here’s a summary, explained in terms of the ways Bernanke, Geithner and Co are trying to (or might try to) encourage banks and consumers to restart the Industrial Growth Economy by loaning and spending more money (financial ‘liquidity’ problem = no ‘water’ (money) flowing through the taps, get it)?:

12. Throw money and resources at it: Use tax measures, print money or use subsidies to encourage behaviour change. Effectively, create more water and use it to try to re-prime the pump. This is precisely what the current bailout strategy is to ‘change’ the illiquid and toxic asset-filled financial system. It is the least effective intervention.

11. Increase the buffers in the system: Increase reserves and inventories (relative to flows) to try to stimulate flows. This is the Wal-Mart ‘warehouse’ strategy, that hopes that more stuff on the shelves will produce more stuff going out the door. If banks and consumers have more cash, will they lend/spend more, or just save more?

10. Repair the physical infrastructure: Eliminate blocks, bottlenecks and leakage in the system. If there are toxic financial securities in the system scaring everyone away from investing, why not have the taxpayer buy them, write them off and then turn the taps back on?

9. Reduce delays and lead times: When there are a bunch of taps that are turned on and off out of sync, it takes awhile to get the water flowing again. Tell the banks that a condition of them getting more money is that it be immediately loaned out, or it will be clawed back. That means it’s not supposed to be used to pay outstanding bonuses to the people who wrecked the system in the first place, even if those wreckers have a contract in writing.

8. Add or strengthen balancing (’negative’) feedback loops: When the system is dysfunctional because it’s out of balance (like human population, human consumption, or the Ponzi scheme we call the stock market), you intervene by putting in a control valve that kicks in whenever an out-of-balance situation is detected. Nature uses diseases, pandemics, and (if those fail) stress responses (war, suicide) to cope with overpopulation, because these negative feedback loops are more humane than starvation. A lending or consumer spending ‘thermostat’ would automatically tighten or loosen money supply and interest rates when lending/spending rose too fast or slowed too much. Alas, the looneys running the financial system believed no amount of spending and lending was too much, which is what got us into this mess.

7. Remove or weaken reinforcing (’positive’) feedback loops: Analagous to intervention #8 above, but instead of putting in a control that diverts an out-of-control system, you can simply slow down the flow rate of that system. Using the thermostat metaphor, intervention #8 is like a heating and air conditioning system that alternatively turns on the heat and A/C when it gets too cold or too hot; intervention #7 is like a thermostat in a system with no A/C — it just turns down the heat when it gets too hot. Using an automotive metaphor, if the financial gurus had a speed limiter and traction control on lending (and consumer credit), it wouldn’t need to be alternatively gunning the accelerator and slamming on the brakes to try to get the car under control.

6. Increase information and accountability: If the banks (and consumers) had a ‘meter’ that automatically flashed red when the consumer’s debt load exceeded his/her cash flow after essential expenses, then perhaps the banks wouldn’t have been reckless enough to lend to people who couldn’t afford to repay without supplementing their ‘cash flow’ with more and more borrowings against the equity in their home, and perhaps the consumers wouldn’t have been foolish enough to accept these loans. Or, as I suggested a couple of weeks ago, maybe if banks were forbidden from foreclosing on assets when their loans were reckless and predatory (make them, not the consumer, accountable for the error in judgement), maybe the banks would have been more cautious and saved us all this grief. As it is, this intervention still hasn’t been tried — if you’re like me, you’re still getting barraged with people offering even more unwanted and unneeded credit.

5. Increase incentives, deterrents and constraints: This is what Dave Snowden calls the use of ‘attractors and barriers‘ in complex systems (and our financial systems are nothing if not complex). Change enforceable laws, rules and mores and you will change people’s behaviour. Put people in jail for reckless and predatory lending and I suspect you’d see less of it. The incentives, punishments and constraints need to be preventative (i.e. barriers need to be deterrents, not after-the-fact punishments), however. If people are ignorant of the law or (as all the people who borrowed too much and never imagined losing their homes) don’t think it applies to them, it won’t have the necessary deterrent and behaviour-changing effect.

4. Encourage and enhance self-organization: Now we’re getting to the interventions that really have a sustained impact — and the ones that scare the hell out of command-and-control types. Remove the barriers to self-organization and let the collective wisdom of millions of people continuously tweak the system to serve them collectively. Microfinance lending (e.g. the Grameen Bank), and local community currencies are perfect examples of extremely resilient economic systems that are substantially self-organized. This has nothing to do with what globalists and corporatists euphemistically call the ‘free market’ (which is nothing of the sort — it is a top-down tightly-controlled oligopoly of the wealthy operating without any regulation — without any of the interventions in this list). Let the people invest in each other, locally (they know exactly the creditworthiness of their neighbours) and get the banks out of the equation entirely. Don’t expect Obama’s experts to suggest this, however; it’s far too radical.

3. Change the fundamental goal, purpose or function of the system: If any of the financial gnomes are reading this, picture them starting to sweat very nervously. What if the purpose of banks wasn’t to make profits for shareholders, but to distribute wealth and well-being equitably? What if we stripped the goal of many investors (speculative gains in real estate and investments) by changing the very nature of investments (loans and shares) from speculative devices and entertainments to vehicles to achieve social justice, equity and conservation (of resources and the environment)? If you have money you want to invest, you put it into a fund that makes the world a better place, and in return for that, if you need it you can get your investment back, perhaps with enough interest to compensate you for inflation. If you have what is clearly excess wealth, it automatically gets invested in such funds. Why should money ‘earn’ anything for the person fortunate enough to have an excess amout of it? Why should we encourage speculation?

1 & 2. Change the paradigm (way of thinking) that underlies the system, or open people up to operating without any set paradigm: Point out the fundamental flaws in the way of thinking that justifies the existing system, and proffer a different way of thinking and how a system supporting that way of thinking might work, and get people who appreciate this new way of thinking into the system to transform it from within. What if we decided we didn’t want to restart the Industrial Growth Economy at all — What if, instead, we decided that a sustainable Natural Steady-State Economy was more viable, and we should just let the old economy collapse? What kind of financial system would we want to create that would actually prohibit growth instead of encouraging it?

These methods apply equally to any system — educational, political, social, business, economic, or ecological. The systems chart at the top of this post is from an earlier article on transforming our society from the dysfunctional Industrial Growth Economy to a Natural Economy, and all twelve of these interventions could be used to make such a transformation (e.g. the black arrows represent type #6 interventions — new negative feedback loops to escape from the vicious cycle in red).

It’s frustrating to listen to the blather in the mainstream media about the current financial and economic crisis, which is all about which interventions of types #7-12 (and mostly #10-12), if any, are appropriate to use to ‘rescue’ the greedy and incompetent people and institutions that exploited the financial system for personal gain, and to get us back into the addictive and unsustainable cycle of excessive and ever-increasing debt and consumption. And as long as the rich and powerful espouse only these foolish ways of thinking and ineffectual interventions to perpetuate their realization, and as long as the media dumbly and obediently report these as the only ideas on the table, public discourse will remain uninformed, conservative and unimaginative. And the chances of real intervention bringing about real change — what Obama called for but seems unable to muster — will be next to none.

Category: Complexity

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