CANADA’S FEDERAL ELECTION

Current standings (see map above) are: Liberals 168 (of which 95 are from Ontario and 37 from QuÈbec), Conservative/Reform 73 (almost all from Canada’s four Western provinces), Bloc QuÈbecois 33 (all from QuÈbec), New Democratic Party 14, Independent or Vacant 13.

Based on the latest opinion polls, projected standings would be: Liberals 143, Conservative/Reform 85, Bloc QuÈbecois 60, NDP 20. A majority government will require 155 seats. Minority governments have been, in my opinion, the best governments in Canada’s history, since they have required the support of the left-wing NDP, which has used its leverage to force introduction of much of Canada’s socially progressive legislation. So ironically, the scandal, by weakening the Liberals, could actually produce a more liberal, progressive government.

The Conservative/Reform party, which recently merged two right-wing parties, is under the leadership of Stephen Harper, a (in my opinion) dangerous arch-right-wing ideologue who once advocated Western separatism, wants to dismantle much of the federal government and shift power to the provinces, and likes US-style privatization, two-tier social services and tax cuts for the rich. Like the previous Mulroney Conservatives, this bunch of nutcakes is ready to strike a devil’s bargain with the lefty QuÈbec separatists, who they loathe, but who share their desire to devolve power to the provinces. It is frightening to think that these two anti-federalist regional parties (the Conservative/Reform in Western Canada and the Bloc in QuÈbec) could get within striking distance of electoral power in a month, even though they would, combined, have less than 40% of the votes.

Because Canada, like the US, has the antiquated and unfair “first past the post” electoral system (rather than proportional representation like much of Europe), this could lead to a great deal of “strategic voting” in this election. A hugely unpopular, right-wing, misnamed “Liberal” government in British Columbia, which has 34 seats up for grabs, has galvanized angry opposition in that province around the NDP, which could see its 2 seats in that province jump to 20 or more, with a mere 10% shift in popular vote — showing the absurdity of this system. If Ontario, which has only 4 Conservative MPs now, is sufficiently appalled by the parochialism and extreme right-wing views of the new Reform-dominated Conservatives (and the horrible memories of Mulroney, who is actively campaigning for Harper) to hold their noses and re-elect almost entirely Liberals, we could end up with a totally fractured vote: Almost all Liberals in Ontario, almost all Bloc in QuÈbec, almost all NDP in BC and Manitoba, and almost all Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The net result would still be a Liberal-NDP coalition government, but would leave much of the country virtually unrepresented in the Cabinet.

Because the Canadian television networks have again conspired (outrageously) to exclude the Green Party from the Leadership Debates, even though the Greens have about 5% of the popular vote and (unlike the Bloc) run candidates in every riding, the Greens will again be unable to get enough media attention (and hence public credibility) to elect a single MP. By contrast, if we had proportional representation in Canada, based on the latest opinion polls, the Greens would get 15 seats, the NDP would get 48, and the Liberals would get only 108 (the Conservative/Reform Party would get 78 and the Bloc only 45; other small parties would get the remaining 14 seats). This would give the Liberals and NDP combined only a one-seat majority, and they would probably need to include the Green Party in the coalition to provide some room for error. I would be so proud to live in a country with a Green Party Minister of the Environment!

Alas, this is not to be. Instead, we’ll be forced to vote strategically for the less offensive candidate (i.e. one of two in most ridings) who has a chance to be elected. In my exurban Ontario riding, those candidates are two right-wing small-town conservatives (the not-really Liberal has distributed anti-gay campaign literature, and the Conservative is a hard-core ‘family values’ nut). Tweedledum and Tweedledee. The Green Party candidate, Ted Alexander, is a great guy, with more smarts, ideas and business acumen than the two big-party peanut-brains combined, but he doesn’t have a prayer of winning. Hobson’s Choice again. *Sigh*.

Great Canadian Political/Election Links:

PlanetVote Canada — complete election portal with a progressive slant
UBC Political Library — detailed political profiles, links, histories, coverage of alternative voting systems
Globe Election Poll — scrolling graphic trendline of weekly polls with commentary
BlogsCanada Political Site — Jim Elve’s list of Canadian political blogs (I’m there!) and other useful sites
Fair Vote Canada — Proportional representation advocacy site