Cold Comfort: A Radical Non-Duality FAQ


image by amira_a from flickr, via pixhere, cc by 2.0

Several people have recently asked me questions (sometimes with concerns about my mental health) about why I have tentatively come to believe in what is being called ‘radical non-duality’. So I thought I would try to answer them, for the record. Here’s the basic message of radical non-duality:

There is no you. The sense of a separate person with free will and choice inhabiting a body is an illusion, an evolutionary misstep, a psychosomatic misunderstanding that seemingly arises in creatures with large brains. The brain and body have no need of a ‘self’ in order for the apparent human they are seemingly a part of to function perfectly well. Since there is no you, there is nothing you can do or learn or become to dispel or see through this illusion. It’s hopeless.

Nothing is real. Nothing is separate. There is no thing. There is only this (or nothing, or everything, or whatever word you want to use), appearing as things and actions. These appearances are not illusions like the self, and they’re not real, or unreal; they are just appearances. Inexplicably. For no reason or purpose.

Q1: How is ‘radical’ non-duality different from other spiritual traditions of non-duality that date back millennia?

It is a completely different message, and it is not at all ‘spiritual’. It is ‘radical’ in the sense that it asserts simply and categorically that there is ‘not two’ — nothing separate, no thing, no one, no time, no space, just nothing appearing as everything. And since there is no one and no thing and no time, there is no ‘path’ to realize this, and no advice on what to do or how to live to achieve anything, or any kind of self-improvement. All spiritual and traditional non-duality messages offer a path or advice for ‘you’ to follow, when the essence of non-duality is that there is nothing separate and hence no ‘you’.

Q2: How can there be ‘no one’ and ‘no thing’ when it’s obvious that we’re real and so is everything we see — we can see it, touch it, move around it, use it?

Everything is just an appearance, neither real nor unreal. It’s kind of like (but this is only a metaphor) how a movie on a screen is just an appearance — the people and events it depicts aren’t really there or happening when you watch it, though you might get so engrossed in the movie that your whole body will react as if what is being depicted is actually happening, and you may even ‘forget’ it’s just an appearance. Quantum science suggests that time and space are likewise just inventions, ideas, the mind’s way of making sense of what our senses ‘report’.

As for there being ‘no one’, neuroscience has been unable to identify any part of your brain whose activity equates to what we think of as the self, or to anything the self seemingly does. In fact there’s evidence that what we think of as the self’s decisions are merely after-the-fact rationalizations of what the body had already begun to do.

Q3: If the self is so useless and even traumatizing, why and how would it have evolved in humans? Why would the mind have invented the self, and the concepts of time and space, and come to believe them to be absolutely real, if they are not — if they are just dangerous distractions?

It’s possible the invented self is a spandrel — an accidental consequence of a brain that got large enough to be able to construct an imaginary sense of self and separation. Nature is always trying things out. Such constructions, after all, may turn out to be evolutionarily advantageous. As it turned out, however, the invention of the self confers no survival advantage and has a number of disadvantages (like capacity for trauma). In that sense it might be like the appendix — a well-intentioned nuisance that evolved but which humans would be better off without. Perhaps the reason they haven’t disappeared yet is the same reason our toes and appendices haven’t disappeared — they haven’t been around long enough yet for our genes to evolve to eliminate them.

Q4: If the self is so useless and dangerous, how have humans with selves survived so long?

Look around. There’s plenty of evidence that we won’t survive much longer. We did fine for a million years before the sense of self seems to have emerged in our species. Now, despite all the competitive advantages having a large brain would seem to confer, we deemed destined for collapse and perhaps even extinction.

Q5: But how could humans function if there was no self in control of what we do?

The same way animals do. Everything that animals (including us) do is the result of our biological and cultural conditioning given the complex circumstances of every moment. This conditioning has evolved successfully in life forms over billions of years, and conditioned creatures have no need of a ‘conscious’ mind or self to thrive. So why would we?

Q6: Aha! There’s a contradiction in that answer. How can you say something has evolved over billions of years when you also insist there is no time (and, for that matter, ‘no thing’ to evolve)?

Everything that happens, including evolution, and every ‘thing’, is an appearance. These appearances, a bit like our dreams (again, this is a metaphor), seem to follow patterns. When we (and science) attempt to make sense of things, we look for patterns, and we create models and maps that seem to represent reality. But we do have a habit of mistaking the map for the territory! Evolution is just a story, an attempt to find patterns. And every ‘I’ is likewise just a story, made up by our large and complex brains to try to make sense of things and perhaps to try to provide a locus for acting on what it makes sense of. Other creatures simply don’t have the brain power to concoct such a fiction — nor do they need one.

Q7. Why do you believe all this? You can’t prove it, and it’s completely useless — it doesn’t help you in any way. What’s its appeal?

Two reasons I am inclined to believe it. First, there are people (some of them listed on my right sidebar, if you want to check them out) who report not having a self, and not needing one. When this loss-of-self seems to happen, they say, it’s obvious that there is no thing and no one real, just appearances. They say it’s obvious, unarguable, that ‘nothing’ just appears as ‘everything’, for no reason. And secondly, there have been glimpses ‘here’ when it was absolutely obvious this was the case — when ‘I’ disappeared and everything continued to appear exactly as it did before, but with no ‘one’, no ‘me’ witnessing it. And it was clear that this appearance of everything has no substance, no weight, no actual reality. It’s impossible to describe until a glimpse apparently happens and then you can no longer deny it.

The message appeals because it resonates with something intuitive that I think we sometimes all feel or suspect. It also makes sense intellectually — it’s an irreducible ‘theory of everything’ with no inconsistencies or missing explanations to figure out. And it even appeals emotionally — I keep thinking it never made sense that life on earth would evolve to be so hard, so full of suffering and destruction, and if this message is correct, life is instead perfect and simple and easy. And even better — it’s only an appearance.

Q8. So who are ‘they’ — these seemingly-real people saying that there is no one? And if it wasn’t you who had these ‘glimpses’ you refer to, who had them?

They are just, apparently, ordinary people. They are not coordinated. They are not exceptional in intelligence, scientific knowledge, brain wave patterns, use of drugs, or in any other way. They are not trying to make money from this, or convince anyone of anything, or suggest any kind of ‘path’ or process to see it. They are just describing what is ‘seen’, what is obvious, ‘there’, when there is ‘no longer’ any self. In fact they assert there is nothing anyone can do; this apparent falling away of the illusory self just happens. Or it doesn’t. So they aren’t selling anything; they have nothing to sell. They say there is no one ‘there’, in their apparent bodies, and no need of anyone.

Likewise, during the glimpses there was no one ‘here’, so they were not ‘my’ glimpses, merely glimpses of the truth when ‘I’ got out of the way. They were no one’s glimpses.

Q9. Sounds like a rationalization to make you feel better, by denying the reality of everything horrible going on in the world, and everything horrible that’s been done, and hence denying responsibility or any requirement to do anything to make things better. Sounds like a form of disengagement or desensitization or nihilism.

I suppose that’s possible, but I wasn’t particularly troubled by any of these things at the time I discovered and became intrigued by the message of radical non-duality. I’ve suffered from lots of depression and anxiety in my life, but learning about this new explanation of the true nature of reality came during the most joyful time of my life. And if it’s a form of escapism, it’s a pretty lousy one — it offers no escape whatsoever, no solace, and it is impossible to explain to others (despite my endless efforts to do so).

Q10. If there is no one, why do ‘you’ continue to call yourself ‘I’, and behave in ways that suggest you do see real people doing and interacting with real things?

That’s partly my conditioning, and partly the fact that our languages all evolved to allow selves to communicate among each other — for us to reassure our selves that our hallucinations about reality are real. Language has no words and no capacity to express this message precisely.

And I should also stress that I still sense an ‘I’ here, still feel that ‘my’ actions have consequences and make a difference. My self has not fallen away (to my endless annoyance). It’s similar (again, only metaphorically) to the fact that I still see the sun revolving around the earth, and even refer to things like ‘sunsets’, even though I know that’s not what is really happening. There’s a huge cognitive dissonance between my intellectual and intuitive acceptance of this message, and my conditioning that suggests a very different reality and way of behaving. But the message of radical non-duality is that nothing matters, so even though it offers only cold comfort, the cognitive dissonance it produces is actually OK. Or so my conditioning has led me to believe!

Q11. This still seems riddled with logical inconsistencies. Look in the mirror. Is there a human being there, or not? A body, or not? Is it doing things, and aging, or not? Will it die, or not?

Hmm. Yes, none of this can be explained logically, even though recent science intriguingly hints at its truth. Logic is the language of selves. There is an apparent human being, an apparent body, and apparently things are being done and bodies are apparently aging. But there is no ‘real’ human or body or mirror — just the appearance of ‘being’ and ‘bodying’ and ‘mirroring’. And ‘things being done’ and ‘aging’. These are gerundive (not really either noun or verb) terms and they’re the best that language can offer to explain that there is no one and no thing and nothing happening, not really — just appearances. And appearances are not things and not actions — they are just nothing appearing as everything, for no reason. All there is, is that.

Q12: So there is no birth, no death, and no life either? When you die, what actually happens?

Nothing. There is no time in which any of these things can actually happen. There is apparently being born, dying and living, but these are just appearances. This is already everything, complete. There is no process, no causality, no trajectory. That’s just the brain’s patterning to try to make sense of everything. Death is perhaps the self’s worst invention, other than maybe the invention of its self. The self fears the body’s apparent dying because it suggests the end of the self, and to the self that’s unbearable, terrifying. When the self seemingly ‘falls away’, the illusion ends, and what’s left is just nothing appearing as everything, in wondrous, awe-inspiring ways. With no ‘ownership’ of anything. There can still be apparent emotions and feelings and thoughts, like fear and pain and imagining death, but these are just appearances, too, not belonging to any ‘one’. A body’s apparent dying, or being born, is just another appearance. Of no consequence, for no reason.

Q13: So when this body walks into a wall and gets stopped, what is doing the stopping and what is being stopped?

Nothing. What the self conceives of as a body walking into a wall and being stopped, is actually just nothing appearing as bodying, walking, walling, and being stopped. Back to the movie metaphor or the dream metaphor or the story metaphor: In a movie or dream or story, you would expect an apparent body to be apparently stopped by an apparent wall. That’s the pattern you’ve always observed. But there’s no ‘real’ body or wall or being stopped in a movie or dream or story. There doesn’t have to be. The being stopped is just a story your brain makes up to make sense of what ‘you’ perceive to be actually happening. But nothing is actually happening. You’re just making it up. Including making up your self as the observer of the story.

Q14: That’s just sophistry. You haven’t answered the question. I could make up a story that the universe is a hologram created by an extraterrestrial intelligence, that we’re caught inside. It’s equally plausible and equally absurd.

If by ‘sophistry’ and if by ‘absurd’ you mean it doesn’t really make sense, you’re right — not by the logic of language and selves. But the hologram idea is staggeringly complex, and rather unimaginative, drawing as it does on our limited, self-obsessed human ideas of intelligence and the universe. It’s plausible, but not very. Whereas the message of radical non-duality is extremely plausible. It explains everything, quite simply.

I’m not trying to convince you. It takes a glimpse, I think, before it can be really convincing. The glimpse plants a seed of possibility in the memory, and that and the inherent intellectual and intuitive appeal of the message was all it took to convince me. The radical non-dualists simply articulated it in a way that even my Doubting Thomas self could kind of make sense of.

Q15: So if you’re not trying to convince anyone of it, why do you prattle on about it so much?

I suppose for the same reason I prattle on about the inevitability of global collapse of our civilization in this century. It’s just really interesting. When you find something really interesting, especially when it’s contrary to popular wisdom, you tend to want to talk about it.

Posted in Illusion of the Separate Self and Free Will, Our Culture / Ourselves | 4 Comments

Links of the Month: November, 2021


cartoon by the ever-brilliant Sandra Boynton

I have been pretty grouchy sometimes in the last few months (like, whenever I read anything about COP26, or the racist murder trials in the US). I know there is no justification for it, and it does no one any good, and it seems rather lame to keep saying it’s not my fault because we have no free will etc, but there it is. I’ve been trying to find things that refocus my attention on things of wonder; some of them are described in the “fun and inspiration” section below. And then, too, there are the lovely, complex, cryptic lyrics of Ayla Nereo’s remarkable song Turning Wake (thanks, Kavana, for playing it). Find in them what you can, and may’t be so:

Turn, turning you a bent-bone weary wandering soul
And born, borne upon a body you can never own
Rollin’ you a long-bent sideways tumbling a mother-given loom
You knew it when you flew in shuttlin’
Weaver you are goal-bent, but do your strings
Hold the strength of what was given when you flew in?

Burn, you’re burning your own home
Some days could you live a little lighter
Give a little water, give a little eye to eye
See from what you’re made, got a lil’ shadow in your wake
Wakin’ is the way you grow this, know this
Got a lil’ matter to be bade, met and given it away
This the trip we being shown, told is all we’ve ever known
What another truth you gonna hide?
Baby, finding that you choosin’ every moment
Lookin’ through the frame they givin’ you

There’s a turn from the fear, a stand for the free
A song for the beat-down pickin’ up steam
You will hear my voice here singin’
There’s a let from the greed, a gift for the kind
I’ll be dancing’ with the ones who remind me
We are born of dust and silence, we are made of ancient song
And there are ones who’ll keep us sleeping
And there are ones who bring the dawn
Put your back to the birch and your mind
To the matter of a listening kind of way
We are born of dust and silence
We are made of ancient song

Rose, rose upon the shoulders of the shoreline
Eyesight creeping ’round the edges of the known
You’ve known it from before, before your sight was shorn shifted
And they told you not to talk of this, but you remember in your sleep
All the ones that you could see raisin’ candles to the sky
Through the forest dark as night
Wide-eyed, keep stride this the path you bein’ shown
Sure thing keep singin’ to the ones you walkin’ on
They the wonder, you the stars they look upon
You are clouds to them, giving harm or giving form
Do we greet them with a grace?
Do we run or do we face the ones who helping us
To heal our choice and choose again?

Bade farewell all you’ve been told, waves are rising you to shore
It’s not what you say, what you think
It’s the walk and the way that you do
So you give what you give, what you give
What you give, what you can, what you give, give what you give, what you are
What you give, what you give, what you can
What you give, what you give, what you are, what you can

We are born of dust and silence, we are made of ancient song
And there are ones who’ll keep us sleeping
And there are ones who bring the dawn
Put your back to the birch and your mind
To the matter of a listening kind of way
We are born of dust and silence, we are made of ancient song


COLLAPSE WATCH


Image of Ken Ward in 2016 Valve-Turners action, from the film The Reluctant Radical

COP26 (or is it 96?): Yet another opportunity for politicians to hobnob with corporate lobbyists, express great concern and protect their most destructive local industries, while actually doing nothing. Most of those who are actively trying to address climate collapse walked out.

6º here we come: Stephen Emmott, in a 80-minute harangue, explains why current inactions will lead to a catastrophic 6ºC temperature rise in this century, and blames everyone. He’s right in his diagnosis, but also annoying and unhelpful. But if you dare admit he’s right, be prepared for professional environmentalists like Bill McKibben and others whose jobs depend on raising false hopes to shout you down. Thanks to Juan Perez for the link.

Time for an ecological uprising?: Adam Tooze provides a useful recap of the dilemma of current direct climate collapse activists (do nothing useful, or risk the alienation of public support, media denunciation and political/police repression by doing something that actually makes a difference). In reviewing Andreas Malm’s work, he provides a rather stunning conclusion on radical environmental activism: it’s hopeless, he says, but, like the Jews rising against the Nazis in the Warsaw ghetto and the camps, “If it is too late for resistance to be waged within a calculus of immediate utility, the time has come for it to vindicate the fundamental values of life, even if it only means crying out to the heavens…”, an “affirmation of life by way of sacrifice and combat with no prospect of victory”. I think it highly likely that this is what it will come down to. Thanks to Tony Walker for the link.


LIVING BETTER


from the Potentially Inappropriate Memebrary

Not as simple as we thought: David Graeber’s posthumous new book The Dawn of Everything suggests our reading of humans’ innate behaviour and the history of our civilizations is wildly wrong. Our culture developed even before abstract language, and humans lived in staggeringly diverse and complex societies, an often chose to return to more ‘primitive’ ways of living, rather than being carried along some unavoidable trajectory to our modern global civilization. We have even lived in cities without hierarchies of rulers and laws. Here’s a lengthy excerpt outlining the book’s thesis. Thanks to Kavana Bressen and Tom Atlee for the links.

Workaround: Safe at-home abortions: With Texas devolved to a fascist vigilante state, women have had to find other means to look after their health. Safe at-home abortions are one of them. Sadly, it leaves the door open for the fascists to institute even more extreme repression, especially as long as the Christian Corporatists dominate the US Supreme Court.

Whimbrels make an undiscovered comeback: What’s an endangered species to do when humans encroach on all their breeding and flyway grounds? Move offshore.

Kidnapped teen uses domestic violence hand-signal to summon help: A TikTok-popularized hand-signal developed by the Canadian Women’s Foundation for those dealing with domestic violence who want to signal discreetly their peril to others, is coming into broader use and potentially saving lives.


POLITICS AND ECONOMICS AS USUAL


from the Potentially Inappropriate Memebrary, courtesy Robert de la Torre

Corpocracy, Imperialism & Fascism: Short takes:

    • Mega-corporations have been quietly introducing a two-tier labour market over the past decade: in union and labour negotiations, the corporations offer existing employees in each position a modest pay raise, while getting agreement in return for lowered pay rates, and fewer benefits, for future employees working the same jobs. It’s how they keep labour costs low and profits high, while locking younger workers and future generations into wage slavery. Thanks to Kavana Bressen for the link, and the two that follow.
    • The British anti-capitalist group Plan C has published a fascinating study of how capitalism’s “blame the victim for the system’s failings” strategy of incapacitating opposition has evolved from (a) inflicting misery on workers (until 1890) (the “public secret” being that capitalism was supposed to benefit all but actually inflicted misery on the working class), to (b) inflicting boredom on workers (until 1980) (the “public secret” being that automation was supposed to be liberating but actually imposed crushing boredom on workers), and then to (c) inflicting anxiety on workers (1980-now)(the “public secret” being that most are living in a state of constant precarity with real declining earning capacity, declining wealth, and constant surveillance).
    • Steven Donziger, the civil rights lawyer who successfully sued Chevron for $18B (which Chevron has never paid) on behalf of Ecuador’s indigenous peoples for its environmental atrocities, has now been jailed by a judge seemingly controlled by and sympathetic to Chevron’s “private” prosecutors, after public prosecutors refused to pursue the matter. But the case is complicated.
    • The problem with social media, as both Zeynep Tüfekçi and now Anne Applebaum have asserted, is not so much that incompetent billionaires have inordinate control what content we see and don’t see, as it is that they control what content they promote, amplify (for profit), and suppress. By nationalizing social media, eliminating advertising, and running them as non-profits, we could address this huge problem. Meanwhile, pity the poor guy who tries to help people unsubscribe. Thanks to PS Pirro for the link.
    • Yanis Varoufakis explains how capitalism has evolved into technofeudalism, with billionaires running independent fiefdoms more powerful than entire nations. Thanks to Phil in NZ for the link.

Misinformation and Disinformation: Short takes:

CoVid-19 Becomes the Pandemic (mostly) of the Unvaccinated: Short takes:


FUN AND INSPIRATION


from the Potentially Inappropriate Memebrary, by Tom Gauld

The strange genius of Jacob Collier: It took a 25-year-old British prodigy to get me, suddenly, magically, to appreciate jazz. I had always considered jazz to be emotionally distant, and unnecessarily difficult and extravagant. Jacob made me realize that our passion for repetition and conformity in music makes complete sense, but also inhibits us. His riffs, off well-trodden, ‘accessible’ music like Lionel Ritchie’s All Night Long, are not just flashy improvisations, but a complete rethinking of where a musical motif can take us, while still keeping its home base in earshot. In addition to perfect pitch, he has the capacity to reharmonize and shift key signatures continuously and on-the-fly, creating something magically original from the familiar without losing track of it. He takes the straight-ahead, simple Grammy-winning R&B hit Best Part, by Canadian Daniel Caesar, and completely reinvents it — and then brings the gobsmacked Daniel onstage to do a duo with him. Astonishing.

The Star Thrower, re-reinvented: Caitlin Johnstone takes Loren Eiseley’s story, already reinvented by those who would make it folksier and more suited for motivational indoctrination, and reinvents it further.

The world’s largest crystals: Hank Green tells the story of the accidental underground discovery of crystals the size of whales.

How every summer song is composed: Only half-jokingly, Dutch composer and music analyst Paul Davids dissects the ingredients of every summer song written since the Beach Boys, and the result is pretty catchy! In another video, he suggests five stirring chord progressions everyone should know.

No free will, but never mind: German professor Sabine Hossenfelder explains in simple terms why free will is an illusion. She actually has an amazing sense of humour, spoofing overly-serious (male) scientists who want to debate with her. Thanks to Joe Clarkson for the link.

Four women made a road trip across Canada in 1954: An amazing photo collection. In 1954 there was no trans-Canada highway.


THOUGHTS OF THE MONTH


from Facebook, original source not cited

From Chris Rufo, Republican Party strategist, via Indi.ca: “We have successfully frozen their brand—’critical race theory’—into the public conversation and are steadily driving up negative perceptions. We will eventually turn it toxic, as we put all of the various cultural insanities under that brand category. We have decodified the term and will recodify it to annex the entire range of cultural constructions that are unpopular with Americans.”

Headlines from the Beaverton Nov 2021:

    • 2021 poppies “extra stabby” to help Canadians appreciate soldiers’ sacrifice
    • Misinformed horse uses COVID-19 vaccine to treat worm infestation
    • Feds to lower flags to quarter-mast on Remembrance Day
    • Unemployed anti vaxxer reassured he can always get work as a National Post columnist
    • Erin O’Toole reverses position he hasn’t announced yet
    • Edward Rogers announces takeover from small corner of home where he can get reception
    • Companies outraged that workers are leaving minimum wage jobs before they can be replaced by robots
    • Key habit of successful people found to be plenty of free time to pursue goals

From Canadian James Nicoll: “The problem with defending the purity of the English language is that English is about as pure as a cribhouse whore. We don’t just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary.”

From Caitlin Johnstone on the Myth of Separateness: “Cognitive and perceptual biases cause us to assume that the human organism is separate from its ecosystem. It is not. The biosphere is one inseparably unified happening of which humans are part. We developed these biases of perception out of evolutionary necessity; our recently-evolved prefrontal cortices gave us unprecedented capacity for abstract thought, but it couldn’t help us advance our survival unless we thought of ourselves as separate from sabre-toothed cats etc. In reality the biosphere isn’t made up of separate ‘things’ any more than a tornado or hurricane is. An organism is just a process, a happening, that is in nonstop interplay with the rest of the ecosystem.”

From Greg O’Ceallaig:

Father: “We used to navigate using maps made out of paper.”
Six-year-old son: “You mean like pirates?!

 

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

What to Learn and Practice Before TSHTF


image by fellow Canadian blogger Alan Levine on flickr, CC-BY-2.0

Because we cannot hope to predict how, when, how fast, or in what stages, civilization’s collapse is going to proceed, it’s pretty much impossible to “prepare” for it. In any case, collapse will continue to look very different from place to place — in the suburbs vs the inner city, in rich countries vs poor ones etc. And if some systems are just going to fall apart at some point, it’s awfully difficult to learn how to replace them when they’re still hanging in there (eg health care and education systems, and a lot of infrastructure and services).

So what is the concerned collapsnik supposed to do in the meantime?

Merlyn, in TH White’s The Once and Future King, says “The best thing for being sad is to learn something new.” But who has the time, or enthusiasm, to learn some challenging new survival skill, when the realization it will soon be needed just fills you with despair?

I’ve often found that the best way to get something into someone’s busy agenda is to make it easy, or make it fun. So what are some things that would be fun and easy to learn, and would also probably be useful as collapse deepens? Here are a few thoughts:

  1. The lessons of history (especially the history of collapse) — learn how the collapse of previous civilizations played out, and how their citizens dealt with collapse.
  2. Conversational skills (Dialogue, listening, articulation, interviewing, getting and focusing attention etc) — In a polarized world, where trust has been largely lost and people are desperate and distracted, we’re going to need to relearn the art of conversation, as a prerequisite to learning how to live together in new, radically relocalized communities.
  3. How to design, make, alter, and repair your own clothes — During the Great Depression, this was an important means by which people reduced their dependence on faltering systems and increased their resilience.
  4. How to repair your bicycle — Similarly, learning to do this for yourself will ensure that, even when cheap energy runs out, you’ll be able to get around safely, reliably and comfortably.
  5. Facilitation skills (helping groups function better together: consensus, “helping imagine”, conflict resolution, process management, self-organizing etc) — This is perhaps the most important ‘soft’ skill we can all learn. Here’s a tool I was involved in developing that can get you started.
  6. Wellness self-management — The firehose of information, and misinformation, on health matters is making it harder for us to take charge of our own health and wellness, but investing in learning how to diagnose your own symptoms, and doing some obvious interventions (eg improving your diet, exercising), can at least make you a useful partner with health professionals in managing your health.
  7. Furniture crafting — Lots of local community college courses are available on how to do this, that will keep stuff out of landfills and may also provide you with a new outlet for your creativity.
  8. Mentoring skills (guiding someone else’s learning: demonstration, research, questioning, being a useful sounding board etc) — The rigidity of formal education is gradually and sensibly being replaced by self-directed learning and education, making mentors (selected by, not imposed on, the student) more important than teachers. Learning mentoring skills will make you a better parent and community member as well. And showing people is often far more effective and enjoyable than telling them what to do.
  9. Improvisational skills — Whether in an amateur theatre group or a musical band, the art of improv can not only improve your artistic skills, it can increase your personal resilience, your listening skills, your capacity to adapt to new situations, and your compassion for others.
  10. About the place where you live (learning about the local ecology, orienteering, wildcrafting etc) — This is not about survival, but rather about understanding the interrelationships in the place you call home, and the resources that place has to offer, which may soon come to replace a lot of ‘imported’ foods and other resources. It can also improve your attention skills, your appreciation of nature and of where you live, and your sense of personal security.

Or you could self-assess your thinking skills (eg creative vs inductive vs deductive, sensemaking, cognitive biases, comfort with uncertainty and dissonance) and/or your relational skills (eg openness to new and diverse ideas, capacity to be vulnerable, and overcoming defensiveness), and practice getting better at them.

It’s not enough to learn these skills once, or in the abstract. Useful learning and skill-building requires practicing. Even better if you can find a group of colleagues (or students) who share your enthusiasm, with whom you can practice together. You may not need 10,000 hours, but the more you practice, the deeper your skill and the more value it will be to you and others when TSHTF. And having others on the same learning track can keep you at it when you’re tempted to give up.

If you’re initially interested but you lose that interest, step back and figure out why you’ve stalled. My experience has been that finding a way to make things easier or more fun is an effective means of keeping your field of study enjoyable and manageable when other demands on your time and energy intervene.


Thanks to Alberta Pedroja for prompting the writing of this article.

Posted in Collapse Watch | Comments Off on What to Learn and Practice Before TSHTF

IHME Reverses Course on Excess Deaths, and Crashes

This is the 22nd in a series of articles on CoVid-19. I am not a medical expert, but have worked with epidemiologists and have some expertise in research, data analysis and statistics.


cumulative excess deaths Mar 2020-May 2021 (red numbers) and undercount ratio (blue numbers) for participating countries, per World Mortality Dataset

Throughout the pandemic, the U of Washington’s IHME has been estimating the actual number of cases and deaths (as distinct from the reported numbers) by relying on a host of sources of “excess deaths” (the total number of reported deaths from all causes since the pandemic began, less the “base line” average number of deaths for similar periods between 2015-2019).

Their hypothesis is that other factors contributing to “excess deaths” (eg number of people dying prematurely of other causes due to lack of access to overcrowded hospitals, number of lives saved due to less traffic, fewer industrial accidents, and less exposure to other infectious diseases while masked) all tend to balance out over time. That’s not an unreasonable assumption, and many other studies support its use.

On this basis they have been estimating that globally on average the actual CoVid-19 death toll has been 2.2x the reported toll, and in North America it is has been on average 1.6x the reported toll. This past May, as I reported, IHME went all-in, essentially focusing its reports on excess deaths data and downplaying the significance and value of reported data. Since I was frustrated with the political games being played in many places (like the US South, and Russia) suppressing CoVid-19 numbers in their reports, I went along with this “leap of faith”.

I suppose I should have known better. In their zeal to cover the whole world, they have used dubious and apparently inconsistent methods to collect, estimate, and extrapolate data, and have repeatedly been caught with ludicrous estimates and projections, particularly at the sub-national level, at various points during the pandemic. But they all seemed to balance out at the national and global level, so I stuck with them.

It turns out they seem to have been essentially reverse-engineering the data to match the unreliable excess deaths numbers they had, and to match their models of what actual numbers should be if their very complicated model was correct — actual data that didn’t fit the model seems have been ignored.

In June, a number of organizations, perhaps fed up with whip-sawing estimates from IHME and others on “estimated actual” death tolls and IFRs, began publishing exhaustive studies of excess deaths that contradicted the numbers being produced by IHME and others.

The best of these I have seen is the World Mortality Dataset (WMD) published in June under a CC licence. I would caution that this is not yet peer-reviewed, but its authorship appears earnest, extremely thoroughly researched, and free of conflicts of interest and axes to grind. Its conclusion is starkly different from IHME’s. It concludes that in jurisdictions with relatively robust, credible health reporting systems, the true ratio of excess to reported deaths from CoVid-19 is close to 1.1x, far lower than the 1.6x IHME has been using. And globally, while it’s much less precise, the ratio is somewhere in the 2-4x range, significantly higher than the 2.2x ratio IHME has been using (WMD’s computed undercount ratio is 4.8x for Russia, for example, and 13x for Egypt).

The chart above, from WMD, shows the number of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic (through May 2021) in each country in red, and the the undercount ratio in blue.

For countries with the most advanced and apolitical public health care systems, such as the UK, Holland, and Canada, the WMD-computed ratio to the end of May 2021 (though there is a significant reporting lag in some countries) is actually closer to 0.9x, suggesting that (a) the reported data in those countries, far from missing 3/8 of the actual CoVid-19 deaths as IHME has assumed, were actually extremely accurate, and that (b) the combined effect of the economic slowdown, masking, and reduced mobility actually reduced national death tolls from non-CoVid-19 causes in such countries to significantly below normal levels. This is even more marked in countries like Germany, France and Belgium.

So here’s what WMD is saying were the actual CoVid-19 deaths to May 2021, compared to what IHME was estimating:

WMD IHME
World 11.0M 8.2M
US 620,000 923,000
Canada 17,000 42,000
UK 110,000 170,000
Japan 13,000 51,000

And here’s how the ratios of estimated actual to reported deaths (the “undercount ratios”) compare for the two organizations:

WMD IHME
World 2-4x 2.2x
US 1.1x 1.5x
Canada 0.9x 1.7x
UK 0.9x 1.1x
Japan <0.5x 3.8x

It has taken a few months for IHME to realize they are now wildly offside the global consensus on the total toll of this pandemic. But suddenly, last month, we saw some wildly new numbers from IHME, applied retroactively and selectively.

Suddenly, it seems, a quarter of a million Americans have risen from the dead. Hallelujah! Their new death toll estimate to the end of May is just 685,000, versus the 923,000 that they had estimated at that time. In fact, they estimate it’s only risen to 873,000 today, and — praise be! — may not ever top a million despite the vast numbers of Americans unvaccinated and the reported death toll staying steady at 10,000 per week. All those CoVid-19 deniers and data suppressers in Texas and Florida were apparently tracking and reporting almost all their CoVid-19 deaths faithfully after all! Oops, our mistake!

Of course, to make the model still work, IHME has had to make up the shortfall by plugging the differences to other countries. So while Texas and Florida have purportedly reported 90% of their deaths, apparently Canada has reported only just over half of its, and Japan just over a quarter of its. Must be those damned centralized universal health care systems! (WMD data suggests Canada and Japan have actually reported well over 95% of CoVid-19 deaths)

Needless to say, the IHME data is now completely without credibility, and I am sure the more competent health care systems are switching to use WMD and more sensible data sources to estimate the total toll from the disease in their countries.

More importantly, we can now safely ignore the IHME estimates and go back, at least in the anglophone countries and western Europe, to relying on reported data for deaths. They’re far more accurate than we thought.

The next step is to figure out, from these more reliable death data, what the actual infection rates are in each country, and hence what the IFR curves (by age cohort) are for each country. This is enormously important in determining strategy for dealing with the pandemic going forward. Only when we know the actual infection rates (% of population infected) and infection fatality rates (% of infected people dying from the disease) can we begin to assess the consequences of relaxing restrictions (especially in countries where the sum of % infected + % vaccinated remains well below 90%). There is a huge danger of additional, radically different mutations of this virus evolving as long as the pandemic drags on. We must do everything we can to get the unvaccinated to speak with people they trust to overcome their vaccine hesitancy and/or fear, get vaccinated, and stop this pandemic.

And with the commercial introduction of new selective antivirals to the fight against CoVid-19, there is a new peril: These pills are (so far) far less effective than vaccines and will not slow the spread, and antivirals open up the possibility of new mutations that are both resistant to the antivirals and immune to current vaccines, and hence could put us right back to square one, fighting a new pandemic against a new and even more lethal and uncontrollable virus.

Posted in How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 1 Comment

Unconditional


Image is from iTunes visualizer.

Consciousness is a social construct. It never would have taken conceptual shape if people hadn’t talked about it with one another. It did not cause us to reflect on it. Rather, our reflection on it caused it to appear to exist. The absorbing search for the “self” is really a search for a Creator. Which makes cognitive psychology the Creationism of science. Words bound to anger many, even if true…

— Melissa Holbrook Pierson

In my endless, futile, and irresistible attempts to rationalize the message of radical non-duality and reconcile it with what ‘I’ perceive, perhaps the greatest stumbling block is making sense of our conditioning.

I’m a late convert to the belief that we have no free will — that we’re completely conditioned by our biology and our culture in everything we do, such that, given the circumstances of each moment, there is no role for ‘me’ in deciding anything. And that there is no need for a ‘me’, in order for that conditioning to play out the only way it could have.

There is, of course, enormous tension between our biological and cultural conditioning — our bodies and genes often ‘tell’ us to do one thing while our culture ‘tells’ us to do something very different. Perhaps that’s how the illusion of the self evolved — as an attempt to provide a referee between the two.

And to be clear there is nothing deterministic in this belief — there are an infinite number of (apparent) variables in the complexity that is life, so the circumstances of the moment can never be predicted, and hence neither can the effects of our conditioning. Belief in our conditioning (and our lack of free will) does not support or necessitate fatalism or nihilism. It’s actually rather liberating. No one to blame, nothing to feel shame or guilt (or pride, or smugness, or even responsibility) about or for.

The problem with reconciling conditioned behaviour with radical non-duality is that conditioning implies causality. It implies, for example, that my cultural conditioning caused me to do work I hated for many years, to the point it nearly killed me.

But the message of radical non-duality is that there is no causality, only appearances. Things apparently happen, the message goes, for no reason. They don’t even happen in time or space. Nothing causes anything else, except in the totally fictitious story of ‘me’.

Our brains instinctively look for, and often ‘see’ things that aren’t real, such as animals and faces in cloud patterns. It could be argued that, similarly, our brains look for patterns that might explain everything that has apparently happened. And, when they find patterns, then they create a model or representation of reality that seems to explain the connection between things, and that process causes us to believe that that model, that patterning, describes what ‘really’ happened. Similarly, it could be claimed that our arguments for why ‘we’ made a decision are merely rationalizations after the fact. Why would we do that? Because we simply cannot believe that ‘we’ have no free will or choice over what the body and brain ‘we’ presume to inhabit does or decides. Such a belief would be terrifying.

These false connections, these fictitious stories we tell ourselves about what happened, is a major preoccupation of the modern human brain. The human brain is a patterning, and then sense-making, machine. It goes so far as to invent the concepts of time and space to explain, sort, and ‘memorize’ the ‘meaning’ of the signals that reach its senses. And then it goes even further and conceptualizes the existence of a separate ‘self’ in the centre of everything, along with a universe of ‘other’ separate things. In its imagined world, it’s the only thing that makes sense.

So presented with the radical non-duality argument that there is no time, no space, nothing separate, no ‘one’, and hence no causality, it cannot help seeing that argument as either dangerous or absurd.

What, then, are we to make of the very compelling evidence of our conditioning ‘causing’ what we do, in light of the equally (to me at last, after glimpses where ‘I’ seemingly disappeared, without consequence) compelling evidence that there is no causality?

We could say that causality is just an “appearance”, just as the sun apparently orbiting earth is an appearance, not an actual reality. If our only experience (and the experiences of others we talk with or read about) is that x precedes y, and if it seems to make sense that x would lead to y, then it is not surprising that we would be convinced that x causes y.

This is different from the causality vs correlation argument, which warns that sometimes things may occur in close proximity, but the seemingly ‘obvious’ causality between x and y is likely just a coincidence.

This distinction is subtler than it might appear. We will generally acknowledge that x and y are correlated rather than causally related only when there is evidence of situations where x was not followed by y, or where we believe the sample was biased. But we will not easily dismiss our belief in the causality between x and y in the absence of such contrary evidence. That is, unless our conditioning has led us to believe that x cannot possibly cause y. And everyone’s conditioning — and hence threshold for believing or disbelieving that x causes y — is different.

In my case, my exposure to certain people and readings (some of which may have been serendipitous) seems to have conditioned me to completely change my belief in the existence of free will. It ‘makes sense’ to ‘me’ that this exposure caused my dramatic change in beliefs. It’s comforting to make sense of everything in this way, rather than believing it was an utterly random, meaningless change in beliefs. I want to believe that’s what was ‘behind’ my change of beliefs on this subject.

It is much harder for me to accept that this belief change just happened for no reason, let alone to accept that my self and all its beliefs are just an illusion, the conjured-up fiction of an over-active and desperate-to-make-sense-of-everything brain. And only an ‘apparent’ brain at that.

When I try to dig deeper into the implications of the radical non-duality message, I have to use metaphor. Perhaps my beliefs changing make sense in the same way that things happening in our dreams seem to make sense. The people and actions in my dreams are clearly illusory, inventions, yet there seems to be some internal logic and flow to what seems to happen in them.

What is actually happening in our dreams? Nothing. How do we explain the apparent causalities of events in our dreams? We cannot. They may be logical, but they are not real.

It is understandably annoying to be told that we, and our stories, are just conjured up inventions of our brains, no more real than dreams. It is a useless, disturbing, and unprovable assertion. Yet when there have been glimpses, it’s astonishingly and intuitively true, even obvious. And this message is repeated, consistently and as articulately as language can permit, across time and around the world, its messengers seemingly now unable to see or talk much about any other truth. And it does tend to resonate with some new, astonishing, findings in science about the nature of self, time and space, and free will (specifically, that none of these things can be scientifically shown to actually exist, and that there is evidence that they don’t).

It does not, and cannot, make sense. Yet as a ‘theory of everything’ it is utterly simple, elegant, and internally consistent. It cannot be proved, or disproved. So why believe it, any more than any other unprovable theory of everything, such as that everything was created by an old white guy with a grey beard two millennia ago, or that everything is made of z-dimensional strings?

Because, perhaps, science has successfully disproved, or cast huge doubts upon, just about every other such theory, statement and assertion about the true nature of reality, and of the self. Radical non-duality may, if we live long enough, turn out to be the last one left standing.

So where does that leave me, on the fence between the explanation of conditioning, and the unconditional causation-free message of radical non-duality? They both assert we have no free will. And the argument that we are merely the product of our conditioning can be very useful, while the argument that ‘we’ are not (anything) is the opposite. So why am I so intuitively and intellectually drawn to the message of radical non-duality?

‘I’ have no idea.


thanks to Kelly for helping me think through the ideas in this post

Posted in Illusion of the Separate Self and Free Will, Our Culture / Ourselves | 5 Comments

Self-tethered: On the Impossibility of Letting Go


image by Paul79UF

When I came to the conclusion that there is no such thing as free will, it changed my perspective on many of the human practices that presume we do have free will — religions, cognitive behavioural therapy, ‘mindfulness’ practices, the brutal 12-step programs, the lefty spiritual programs that focus on ‘self-improvement’, and all of the quasi-religious programs that advocate ‘surrender’, cracking open ‘so that the light gets in’, redemption, rebirth, ‘liberation’ and ‘enlightenment’.

This was a big mindset change for me — it has barely been a decade since, on this blog, I was writing about what I called ‘let-self-change’ practices, which were earnestly laid out to enable me (and anyone who cared to follow) to evolve myself into a better, happier, healthier, more useful person. Like much of my early blog writing, I now see this as ridiculous, but I’m not embarrassed by it. This blog is a chronicle, a diary, and I’ve learned much from looking back and seeing where I’ve come from. But it’s not a path, and not anything I had or could have had any control over.

If there has been any evolution of this ‘self’, this illusory Dave-person, it has not been ‘my’ doing, but rather, as I’m sure you are tired of hearing me say, the inevitable result of my biological and cultural conditioning, given the circumstances of each moment. In many respects, my ideas, beliefs, and worldview make more sense to me now than ever before, but of course they would, since all this ruminating has been towards the very intentional end of making sense of things. Their evolution, or at least my story about it, would suggest that this self has at least become more self-aware than it seemingly used to be. It catches itself in a lie, or in an over-reaction, more quickly than it used to. And it is more tolerant of not knowing, and of cognitive dissonance, than it seemingly used to be.

One of the hardest lessons in all of this has been the realization that there is no ‘letting go’, no conscious process or action that will unburden this self of its sorrows, its anguish and anxiety, its fears and fury and shame and guilt and grief.

It is not that my self is holding on stubbornly to things it should best let go of. It is rather that the self is the holding on. The self is not tethered by delusions and unhealthy feelings — it is the tether, the construct that inexhaustibly pulls all these things together, tossing one out and replacing it with another from time to time, or not.

The self is the holding on, is the tether, is the ‘story of me’, is all this accumulated gunk that is stuck to us, is the glue that holds our absurd beliefs and ghastly traumas and terrible and wonderful feelings and thoughts in this messy bundle called ‘me’. When we long to ‘let go’ of it all, we are really longing for the end of our selves, while still of course hoping to keep an imagined ‘pure essence’ of self (a ‘higher self’) that we can, at last, be happy with. We want to jettison all the baggage but still have all the stuff ‘we’ think is important waiting for us at our destination — that is, when we arrive at salvation, enlightenment, or whatever other word we might use for that more perfect place.

What I believe now is that (almost) all humans are afflicted with a physical and mental illness that seemingly arises in early childhood. That affliction is the inescapable sense that there is a separate self that is ‘us’, and that there is everyone and everything else apart from it, moving through time and space. And there is no cure.

Here, it has occasionally been seen that this is an illusion, a whole-body misunderstanding of the signals that reach our senses, and that there is actually no one, no self, no separation, no space or time, merely appearances. And that there need not be any of these things for each conditioned apparent body to function perfectly well, exactly as it does without the pretence of a ‘self’ in control.

We can lament this horrific, endemic, but uniquely human disease if we want, but doing so is as useless and pointless as raging that suddenly being afflicted with unending, incurable, horrific hallucinations is somehow unfair, a curse, a kind of cosmic injustice that needs rectification or redemption. This is who ‘we’ are, and our severely damaged species has wrought enormous destruction on the world in acting out its outrage at the suffering this malaise creates in us all.

At least in our story, a story that reverberates across many cultures and belief systems (eg eating the forbidden fruit of knowledge), this tragedy was an accident, the unavoidable consequence of a brain that just got too large for its own good — an horrific evolutionary misstep. But that’s just a story, an attempt to make sense of what makes no sense. There is no one, and hence no one to blame. The play of life — and it is only a play — will go on, a wondrous unfolding outside of time and space, always and already and everywhere and inevitably nothing appearing as everything, with no meaning or purpose.

And in a tiny part of that play, on what appears a lonely little blue planet, one strange species of apes suddenly appeared to develop an accursed affliction that had all of its members asserting to each other that its hallucinations were real and meaningful, and its resulting ghastly suffering in need of some divine or other cure.

Not a very good story, by our human standards — no hero, no plot, no redemption, no resolution. But no matter. It’s only a play, an invention. Just an appearance. No improvement needed. It had its entertaining moments, and in any case it will never be repeated. Fade to black. Exeunt omnes.

Posted in Illusion of the Separate Self and Free Will, Our Culture / Ourselves | 1 Comment

Ten Questions I’m Thinking About Now


me with my latest creation

These days I try not to think about the future — it only creates anxiety and there’s no way to predict it, or really even prepare for it. And I’ve long given up trying to ascertain the meaning and purpose of life — I’m thoroughly convinced life has neither meaning nor purpose.

Still, when I ponder about things, I quite often end up not with (new or changed) beliefs or plans or objectives, but rather questions. I try to carry these questions lightly, and not become obsessive or even intent on answering them. The questions themselves seem to be enough to serve as a compass to guide what I do each day.

As a non-believer in free will, my sense is that ‘I’ had nothing to do with coming up with these guiding questions, any more than ‘I’ have any say in what I do — these things are entirely the result of my biological and cultural conditioning, in the face of the circumstances of each moment, all of them outside my control.

So none of these questions is about what ‘I’ ‘should’ do or try to change.

But that doesn’t make them any less interesting, inspiring, and even comforting. Sometimes good questions, even and perhaps especially if there are no clear or even possible answers to them, can be far more grounding, and can help focus thoughts and energies in more useful ways, than any set of beliefs or presumed ‘answers’ could do. With that, here are the questions I’m most often pondering these days:

  1. If, as appears increasingly likely, the US elects a fascist government and president three years from now (or if such a government comes into power there without being duly elected), what does this portend for us in Canada? Will such a government attempt to annex Canada for our land and resources, and if so what will be our, and the world’s, response? Will we have to deal with a massive influx of political refugees from south of the border, and if so, how will we respond?
  2. If I were limited to spending all my spare time (say, 400 hours a year) on a single project, what would that project be? In other words, where might my focused effort make the greatest difference, at least locally, at least for a while? If that project were arduous or risky, would I be better off choosing a different project that I’d be less likely to abandon if things got tough?
  3. How can I best get involved in a dialogue process that will perhaps teach me new, valuable conversational skills and expose me to some new, creative, brilliant thinkers and some radical, collectively-emergent ideas about the world and how to live a good life in it?
  4. Where do I want to be living in 5-15 years so that when permanent economic collapse unfolds (I’m guessing in several stages over that time period), and as ecological collapse deepens and becomes more disruptive and dislocating, I’m somewhere that has the people and resources to cope as well as possible with it? (And still remain close to the people I care about, especially when air travel ceases.)
  5. What one or two things would I most like to learn, or learn about, over the next few years? I came close to finally learning how to dance, and how to swim, before CoVid-19 kicked in. I’ve always been curious to learn ASL. And I almost enrolled in a course on improv.
  6. What are some simple and effective ways to introduce more fun into my life? I recently was involved in two activities that had me laughing more than I have in years, and it’s left me wishing for more. (For me, laughter and fun are almost always the result of participatory activities, not spectator sports.)
  7. What might work to get me to devote more time and energy to creative writing? I really enjoy it when I get to it, but it’s hard work, and the quality of my creative work is all over the map. What might make such writing better, easier, and/or more fun?
  8. Similarly, what might work to get me to devote more time and energy to music composition? Is it just a matter of putting in the time, or do I need a mentor, and/or practices, to add more discipline and skill to how I do this work, and if so where might I find them?
  9. What’s the best local theatre company near my new home? (There has to be one easy question on the list).
  10. What are some useful practices that might improve my capacity to pay attention to things — things that would seem to merit closer attention, or which are just beautiful or interesting? It seems to me that what we pay attention to, and how well we pay attention, has a major impact on what we subsequently do, and on how much we enjoy and learn from life. And attention, it seems to me, is a whole-body, multi-sensory activity, more about what is perceived, felt and embodied than what is thought.

Looking at this list, I notice it has no “why” questions, no philosophical questions, no yes-or-no questions, and no questions about my fascination with the message of radical non-duality, a message which effectively renders all questions moot.

It’s a very different list than it would have been a decade ago. I wonder what happened to that guy who claimed to be me back then?

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 7 Comments

CoVid-19: The Long Road Ahead


As we head into another winter season of the pandemic, there are a number of scenarios that might play out from here. We are still enormously ignorant about many important facts about the virus and the pandemic, but some things are pretty clear:

  1. We are not going to eradicate the virus; it is just too transmissible and capable of rapid mutation. As such, everyone on the planet will either get the disease, be inoculated against it, or both. Masks, distancing, and shut-downs can effectively delay infection until each of us is inoculated, but unless you are inoculated it is just a matter of time before you contract the disease. Waiting will not reduce your risk.
  2. The death rate for the aged and for those with compromised immune systems is at least two orders of magnitude greater than that for healthy children, though no one is immune. This may change as additional variants emerge.
  3. The death rate in parts of Asia and Africa is at least one order of magnitude lower than that in affluent, sedentary nations with high rates of obesity and low exposure to other viruses in their childhood and in their everyday lives. Though, again, no part of the world is immune or sufficiently isolated to avoid endemic exposure and some risk of dying — this virus is that contagious.
  4. The vaccines have worked brilliantly, and have at least halved the number of deaths from the pandemic. Had they been introduced more quickly and universally, more than half of those who have died from the disease (and the vast majority of those who have died in the last six months) would likely have been spared.
  5. Global average vaccination rate is about 30%. In affluent nations the rate varies from about 40-80% by country, state, and age cohort, with an average of about 60%.
  6. There are no feasible ‘treatments’ for viral infections that might be used, now or in the future, to eliminate the need for vaccines. Viruses are staggeringly varied and quick to mutate, and antivirals are a hit-and-miss proposition with many dangerous side effects. And, as with antibiotics, the development of new antivirals raises the risk that viruses will emerge that are immune to them as well, eliminating their value even in the most desperate cases.
  7. Globally, the pandemic continues unabated, with about 10-20,000 people dying of it every day, and roughly three million new infections every day. This is about the average rate of deaths and new infections that the disease has produced since its very start eighteen months ago.
  8. After a year of remarkable stability, the last eight months have seen some dramatic mutations in the virus, all of them for the worse. A recent study described by NPR concluded that “SARS-CoV-2’s rate of adaptation is remarkably high right now, roughly four times higher for SARS-CoV-2 than it is even for seasonal flu, which changes so fast that people can be vulnerable to it each year.” NPR’s report goes on: “This fast evolution has immense implications, many scientists say. It essentially dashes the hopes of eradicating SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. or even in smaller communities. As with the flu, the coronavirus will likely be able to reinfect people over and over again. It will keep returning year after year. ‘Eventually everyone will be exposed to SARS-CoV-2,’ says Dr. Abraar Karan, who’s an infectious disease specialist at Stanford University. ‘It’s just a matter of whether you’re exposed when you’re fully vaccinated or when you’re not vaccinated.’ “
  9. Between a third and an eighth of those infected with the disease have symptoms of chronic or permanent injury from damage caused by the disease, to the respiratory, neurological, cardiopulmonary and gastro-intestinal systems of the body, and/or to the brain and other organs. Even if most of these “long CoVid” symptoms eventually ease, the cost in terms of lost healthy life, lost work time, support health costs, and shortened overall life, will be astronomical.
  10. As the frequency and complexity of pandemic diseases continues to accelerate in the 21st century, we can expect more, and more severe, pandemics in the years ahead.
  11. The complexity of our global systems is such that we will not be able to eliminate or even significantly diminish the causes that underlie pandemics — massive-scale factory farming; the cultivation, harvesting and exposure to exotic animals that are reservoirs for most pandemic viruses; and the invasion and destruction of the world’s last wilderness areas that currently contain many more unknown pathogens.
  12. There is almost no evidence that we — the leaders and members of our political, social, economic, and health systems — have learned any lessons from CoVid-19 that will significantly change our response to the next pandemic. We are likely to repeat the same mistakes we are continuing to make now, and because the next pandemic is (statistically) likely to come from animal-to-human species-gap transmission from a factory farm reservoir, we may take even longer to respond to its more complex transmission mechanisms than we did this time around.

Some other things are completely unclear, and are likely to remain so, perhaps forever:

  1. As with the 1918 pandemic, we will probably never know how many people caught the disease, or how many died from it, and hence, we will never know even approximately what the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the disease is. There are credible estimates that range from 8-17M deaths so far, 15-60% of the population infected so far, and hence an IFR anywhere in the 0.17-1.7% range.
  2. As with the 1918 pandemic, we have no idea how the disease will mutate from here on. A radical mutation of the 1918 virus created a late, devastating wave that killed four times as many as the earlier waves, and targeted especially the young and healthy, precipitating a violent immune system reaction that killed its victims — those with strong immune systems were essentially killed by their own reactions, not by any action of the virus itself. Such a mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is entirely possible, especially as the disease’s spread continues largely unabated.
  3. We don’t know how severe the effects of “Long CoVid” will be, nor what they will be, nor how long they will last, among the likely billions who will bear the scars of this disease, some in ways they do not yet know and cannot even imagine.
  4. We don’t know how this pandemic originated. While there are some plausible theories of human incompetence causing it, there are far more tenable theories that the virus was transmitted by a bat directly to a human, and that such accidents, while rarely as devastating as CoVid-19 turned out to be, happen all the time.
  5. We don’t know how the virus affects us, makes us ill, and kills us. We are still fighting the symptoms, not the mechanism that gives rise to them, because the virus seems to have many, many, complex, inconsistent and unpredicted effects on many different parts of our bodies.
  6. We don’t know how long the vaccines, and getting infected, will continue to offer protection against new infections, and what effect “booster” shots will have on immunity to infection and reinfection.
  7. We don’t know what proportion of the hold-outs will get vaccinated, and when, either because of work mandates (there’s some evidence at more than 80% of holdouts begrudgingly get vaccinated when their job is on the line), or because, in many less affluent countries, vaccines are finally made available when they haven’t been to date. This could make a huge difference on the duration of the pandemic and the likelihood of new, virulent variants emerging.

So that leaves us with the possible scenarios outlined in the charts above. What they suggest is that, far from the pandemic being close to its end, as we’d hoped when the vaccines were introduced, we’re really not far beyond the middle. Few countries have achieved the 80-90% vaccination rates needed to achieve herd immunity, especially with borders opening, mask mandates being dropped, and the extraordinary transmissibility of the Delta variant. The blue “business as usual” projections in these charts presume that vaccine take-up among the unvaccinated will remain sluggish, as we enter the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere which last year saw a sharp upward spike in CoVid-19 infections and deaths. It suggests that a year from now we will not be much further ahead than we are now in terms of getting the pandemic under control.

If there is a dramatic uptick in vaccine take-up, and if the aged and vulnerable get booster shots, then a year from now (grey lines) we might finally be able to do everything we could do before the pandemic, though we will probably still be using masks as prophylactics indoors with strangers or in areas of the country and world with continuing high case rates. That’s the best case scenario.

If there is a new, more virulent variant (and with current low vaccination rates there is lots of time and lots of places for one to emerge), then all bets are off. The radically virulent variant that emerged in 1918 after the initial waves put everything back to square one, as it primarily sickened and killed the young and the healthy, notably children, and this is the age cohort that would be most vulnerable to such a variant now, since their vaccination rate is very low almost everywhere in the world. We could see infection and death rates much higher than what we have seen to date.

Why is this going on so long? It’s a combination of factors. Our modern way of living and travelling allows new viruses to reach every part of the world with unprecedented speed. Our lifestyle in affluent nations prevents our immune systems from learning healthy and powerful responses to pathogens, because of our nutritionally poor, unvaried diets and our excessive use of antibiotics and chemicals. Fear of governments and other authorities has increased public opposition to mandates and vaccines, and hence led to much lower rates of compliance with health authorities’ recommendations. Public health departments have been systematically starved of needed resources for research and preparedness for decades. And bad luck has also played a part — the accident of the virus’ first appearance, its extraordinary transmissibility, and more recently the rapid pace of its mutation.

While flu pandemics have tended to be short-lived, other viral pandemics (such as polio and AIDS) have gone on for years, even decades. Just as 9/11 may have permanently changed our experience of air travel, it is possible that CoVid-19 will usher in permanent changes in our social and work behaviour. The real surprise is that, with all the preconditions in place, it has taken so long for a pandemic to have as great a global impact as CoVid-19 has. If you were dreaming about a celebratory mask-burning to mark the end of the pandemic, best put such thoughts out of your mind for the foreseeable future.

Posted in How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 8 Comments

History is Just Another Story


image by Neil Howard on flickr CC-BY-NC2.0

As its etymology suggests, history and story are really the same thing — “a narrative of what was seen and known”. A narrative is a form of sense-making, “connecting” the threads of what happened.

When we tell a story, of course, we inevitably prejudice how the listener or reader makes sense of it, by the order in which we tell the threads (implying causality and trajectory), and by which threads we tell and which we withhold, and by how, through the use of particular verbs (“slaughter”, “develop”, “educate”), nouns (“monster”, “victim”, “justice”), and adjectives (“savage”, “unwitting”) we ‘frame’ the listener’s or reader’s perspective on them. And, of course, by deliberately or unintentionally lying — the act of including misrepresentations and outright fictions in our account, and equally egregious sins of omission.

History, it’s been said, is written by the winners, and indeed much of written and spoken history over the longer arc seems to be about battles, heroes and villains. And in our desperate devotion to the myth of progress (the ultimate story), we will twist ourselves and our narratives into knots to prove that they are a demonstration of how things are inexorably improving. So now, when we write about ‘history’, we start with the early disastrous civilizations like the Romans’ — corrupt, violent, disease-ridden, and teetering on collapse. The average life expectancy in those days was 29 years, so when you start ‘history’ there, there is nowhere to go but ‘progressively’ up.

We don’t want to hear that pre-civilization cultures were mostly healthy, peaceful, and full of leisure. That simply doesn’t fit with the story. And similarly we bristle at the possibility that we once lived as the few remaining wild bonobos, our nearest cousins, mostly do now — easily, comfortably, peacefully, effortlessly. Until we came along and imposed ours, the bonobos had and needed no story, precisely as the whales and turtles and other creatures that have been around a hundred times or more longer than we have, have always lived lives of ease, of balance, and of peace. We grasp at the ‘story’ that wild creatures are in constant and desperate struggle, living in constant terror, violent, “red in tooth and claw”. But that story simply doesn’t hold up.

Why is it so important to our species to create stories — and myths — that always present an arc of struggle and then ultimately progress?

Eight years ago, PS Pirro wrote this remarkable poem about history:

What You Decide to Call Good

It all depends on what you compare, I tell my good friend
who wants to believe that battles can be won against this
most intransigent of enemies. She points to Martin, and to
the defeat of the Klan, she points to the Cuyahoga no longer
on fire, to the five-day workweek, the eight-hour day, to
Grandma’s check that saves her from dining on fingernails
bitten already to the quick, it’s not futile, says my friend,
it’s not tilting at windmills to want to build windmills. And
isn’t it still better now? Better than it was, and it can get better
again and again, always better unless we give up.

But it all depends on what you compare. This is what
I say when I show her the map of the world, the bloodlines
and the ley lines, and the convergence of profit and genocide,
where the skin of the earth has been stripped and turned into
mdf shelving you toss out in a few years to buy more at IKEA,
the persistent junk in the fat of every living thing, junk that
you siphon into your infant child each time she eats. It all
depends, my good friend, on what you decide to compare.

Do you start with the unsettling of the Americas, the creation
of an empire built on stolen Aztec gold, do you count the trees
or the dollars? Do you hold Sinclair’s blood-soaked Jungle
next to Bill’s bright white Microsoft, or do you look at the
poisoned mines in the Congo where children with the cut of the
whip across their backs dig for the columbite-tantalite to outfit
your Android? Complexity, complicity, they will get you every
time. Because so much depends on what you compare. So much
depends on what you decide to call good.

Peggy just wrote a second piece on history, in which she writes:

History clings to us, like a shadow at our heel. It’s a thing we cast, and it attenuates with the sun, with our changing perspective. How much of it is the thing that happened, and how much of it is us, squinting into the light, trying to discern the boundaries?

The nature of human societies is one of continual negotiation, of agreements — what we agree to do, what we agree to be acceptable behaviour, and what we agree happened in the past — our history. Our beliefs and worldviews sit atop these agreements, and could hardly exist without them.

What would we be, what would we be like, if we did away with our stories, and our need to agree on what happened in the past? 

I would argue that our stories really do us no good, and we would be better off without them. I don’t think we would be paralyzed into indecision. But then I don’t believe in free will, so perhaps this is what it all boils down to. Wild creatures negotiate the world perfectly well without the need for stories about what happened. They need only agree upon what is happening, right now, to be able to take the action needed to divert the approaching tiger from attacking their young, or to rebuild their storm-damaged home.

Without our stories our language would be very different — without the need for a past or future tense, without words of judgement or expectation. There has been some research to suggest that some ‘uncivilized’ human cultures’ languages lack these concepts, and thrive without them.

Would such a story-less language-of-the-moment free us from conceptualizing, and hence feeling, shame, jealousy, dread, anxiety, guilt, and a host of other ‘negative’ emotions that hang on stories of what happened or might happen? Would we be destructive, unrestrained, cruel creatures without these concepts and feelings inhibiting us, or would we be liberated and hence, for the first time in perhaps tens or hundreds of millennia, fully functional humans?

Without the beliefs that likewise depend on shared agreement about what happened or might happen, how would we be different — socially, behaviourally, and in our actions? Would ‘living entirely in the moment’ make us oblivious to what we should be doing to cope with and to try to mitigate, collapse? Our would it actually make us better attuned and less attached to perpetuating the destructive ways of the past?

My sense is that the way humans have apparently turned out is the combined result of many accidents of evolution and circumstance. There is no reason to believe that we are by nature doomed to do what we think we have done, or to have evolved to be the way we think we are now. The history we tell ourselves about ourselves is just a story, perhaps one we should not take so seriously. The truth about us could be very different from the story we tell about ourselves. Perhaps the truth cannot even be captured in a story at all.

Posted in How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

What the “Supply Chain Problem” is Really About

One of the promises of unregulated extreme capitalism is that problems of supply and demand will always “work themselves out” in an unregulated market, and hence that any market regulation will necessarily make things worse.

The idea is that where the supply curve (how much sellers are willing to sell at various prices, a curve with a positive slope) intersects the demand curve (how much buyers are willing to buy at various price points, a curve with a negative slope), determines how much of each commodity will be sold (how far along the x axis the supply/demand intersection is), and at what average price (how high up the y axis the intersection is). (See left-most chart above.)

This utopian presumption of course assumes an equitable distribution of wealth (which determines demand) and an unlimited access to resources (which determines supply). When you have a grossly inequitable distribution of wealth, you end up with a high demand for multi-million dollar mansions and extravagant sports cars (billionaires with nothing better to do with their excess wealth), and a low ‘demand’ for the necessities of life because most people can’t afford to buy them.

Likewise, when you have serious resource and supply constraints, you end up with no supply, at any price, or, worse, you end up supplying only those willing and able to pay an insane price (by most people’s standards) for the scarce resource, and everyone else doing without. (See middle chart above.)

And, in the worst case scenario, when you have both inequitable distribution of wealth and serious resource and supply constraints, you end up with a market collapse — the maximum price buyers can afford to pay is lower than the minimum price sellers can afford to charge without losing money, so sellers stop producing new supplies (that they can’t sell) and buyers run out of everything. (See right-most chart above.)

This will soon become a permanent problem in the energy sector, as increasing extraction costs, despite massive subsidies, mean that producers need to earn at least $50/bbl to stay in business, and that amount is rising, while consumers can only afford to pay at most $80/bbl to remain solvent, and that amount is falling (as real disposable income for all but the richest continues its 50-year slide). Current bottlenecks in many areas have driven oil prices up to $85/bbl, twice what they were a year ago, which means the coming winter (which is expected to be unusually cold in much of North America) is going to be brutal for many. Natural gas has undergone a similar doubling of price in the last year, partly due to shortages caused by the uneconomically low prices a year ago leading to layoffs and production cuts. This whipsawing is likely to continue.

We’re seeing a bit of an advance look at this these days in what is being called a “supply chain” crisis, much as we did during the economic crisis and collapse of 2008. For a host of reasons largely resulting from the pandemic, supplies of all kinds of goods have been disrupted. The previous drop in demand has meant that suppliers laid people off and reduced inventories, and imports and exports slowed. The laid off workers had less money to spend, reducing demand further. And as hiring then increased and more emergency money was given to citizens to help them deal with the loss of employment, there was a sudden jump in consumer demand that could not be met by the reduced workforce with the lower levels of shipping.

Suddenly, shipping containers are piling up in some places and completely unavailable in others. Employers paying inadequate wages for the risk and stress of the work, a situation exacerbated by the pandemic, find themselves without necessary workers, and many transport vehicles are also off the road due to scarcity of repair parts. As a recent Atlantic magazine article reports, “Supply chains depend on containers, ports, railroads, warehouses, and trucks [and workers]. Every stage of this international assembly line is breaking down in its own unique way.”

In Vancouver, ocean-going containers of cheap manufactured crap from Asia arrive bulging, and make the trip back home mostly empty (a lot of their “cargo” on the return trip is plastic trash and scrap textiles). And containers of raw materials (much of it phosphates, sulphates and nitrates destined for Latin America to be used as fertilizer to support the continued massive clearcutting of the rainforest to plant crops) leave Vancouver bulging and return largely empty. Higher fuel costs now mean the ships have to travel at half-speed to use less fuel so they can “break even” cost-wise, adding to the vehicle shortage and hence the shortages and stock-outs of everything else.

If this were just a temporary phenomenon, we would be able to live with it. But there’s considerable evidence we’re seeing what will emerge as a permanent, slowly deepening problem, as a precursor to a broader economic collapse. The following chart shows how the supply chains are now fraying and in danger of permanently breaking:

In a “normal” industrial economy, the growth and collapse cycles balance each other out, keeping supply, demand, prices and production in equilibrium. However, because of the “limits to growth”, two parts of the growth cycle will inevitable start to break as the industrial economy comes up against the reality of unsustainability, in two ways:

  1. When resource supplies become scarce, such that they are uneconomic to produce relative to the spending power of consumers, it becomes impossible to increase production in response to an increase in demand.
  2. When products become unaffordable for many at any price, no amount of ‘discounting’ will be sufficient to increase sales, and hence there will be no incentive to increase production. The ‘demand’ is there, but those needing the goods and services can’t pay for them.

What we are seeing now are early glimpses of what will happen as those chains in the growth cycle continue to fray and finally break. The equilibrium will be lost, the growth cycle (yellow in the chart above) will cease, and we will be permanently caught in the collapse cycle (grey in the chart above).

This is what has happened in previous depressions and severe recessions, though in every case there was enough slack in the system to repair the ‘breaks’ and move the economic system back into equilibrium.

There is no longer any significant slack in the system. Bailouts of corporations and industries that cannot operate profitably because their products require scarce, expensive resources can only work when there is the potential of less expensive resources coming on line, or the potential of dramatically increasing most consumers’ spending power, and when the government can pump trillions of dollars into the financial system to bail them out until that happens, without collapsing the currencies, the financial systems, and the governments that rely on faith in the value of their currencies.

Once we realize that there is no short term “innovation” fix for (1) the ever-diminishing energy return on energy invested in the resource sectors (especially oil) on which the entire growth cycle and growth economy are based, (2) the chasm of inequality between the extremely rich and the increasingly impoverished vast majority, and (3) the current dependence on artificially-suppressed interest rates and the skyrocketing levels of unsustainable debt by citizens, corporations and governments, then the market will wake up to the reality of its overextendedness and unsustainability.

Then, the collapse cycle will become the only game in town — supply shortages driving up prices to the level consumers can’t afford to buy, yet still not high enough that producers can afford to produce and sell, endlessly lower ‘demand’ (not because products aren’t needed, but because very few can afford to buy them at any economically viable price), and collapsing production, aggravating the shortages. We’ve seen it many times before. It’s probably been a part of every civilizational collapse in one way or another. And we’re nowhere near ready for it, and won’t be until we realize these “supply chain problems” are early evidence of permanent economic collapse, and not just something we have to put up with for a while until the supply chains are magically “fixed”.

 

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works | 6 Comments