A QUIZ: IS YOUR COUNTRY WAR-PRONE?

I have long been interested in the causes of civil and international wars, and studied in university the high correlation between population density per arable acre, population growth rate, and the frequency and intensity of wars. Recently, I read approximately fifteen papers on the Internet, mostly by university professors or graduate students, analyzing various predictors of civil or international warfare. The twenty-three predictors they cite are listed in no particular order (more frequently cited factors are asterisked) in the following table:

Predictive Factor	Common in developed countries? (A)	Common in under- developed countries? (B)	Predictor of war or civil unrest? (C)	Present in your country today? (D)
1. Strong nationalist sentiment	sometimes	yes	yes
2. High rich/poor economic disparity*	no	sometimes	yes
3. Fear of critical resource shortages	sometimes	yes	yes
4. Economic growth slowing or negative	sometimes	yes	yes
5. High population density/arable sq.mi.	sometimes	sometimes	yes
6. High population growth rate	no	yes	yes
7. Feeling of political disenfranchisement	no	yes	yes
8. Crumbling or non-existent public infrastructure: health, schools,transport	no	yes	yes
9. Lingering bitterness or resentment from a ‘defeated’ or suppressed group	no	sometimes	yes
10. Regional power bases with different interests than central government’s*	no	yes	yes
11. Financially or politically weak central government*	no	sometimes	yes
12. Recent loss of personal freedom or property, or climate of fear	no	sometimes	yes
13. High envy of others’ possessions	no	yes	yes
14. State terror: coercion or threats of violence against certain groups*	no	sometimes	yes
15. High number of weapons per capita	sometimes	sometimes	yes
16. High number of incarcerated citizens	sometimes	sometimes	yes
17. Government lacks legitimacy	no	yes	yes
18. Unstable economy or currency	no	yes	yes
19. Strong local personal hatreds*	no	yes	yes
20. Insurrection or war has a reasonable chance of succeeding	sometimes	sometimes	yes
21. High political polarization	no	yes	yes
22. Lack of church-state separation	no	sometimes	yes
23. Growing or chronic unemployment	no	yes	yes

What was most interesting to me was how factors felt locally, in every home and town and family, outweigh centrally fomented factors. War-mongering governments and insurgencies, even with captive media, apparently cannot sustain war support in the absence of these local factors.

It would seem from these predictors that the only things keeping many under-developed countries from constant warfare is strong totalitarian central control à la Tito (i.e. ‘no’ for factor eleven) and/or ensuring that everyone in the country is equally poor (i.e. ‘no’ for factor two). If so, it doesn’t bode well for democracy in Iraq or Afghanistan.

It would also seem that the US currently has an alarming number of the predictors of war or violent civil unrest, with a profile that looks more like that of an under-developed country than a developed one. I don’t know what to ascribe this to. Is it the lack of the sobering lesson of two world wars that Europe learned first hand in the last century? The enduring US legacy of frontier and civil war violence? The every-man-for-himself pioneer spirit? The impact of zealous and simplistic religious evangelism? An introspective education system that doesn’t adequately teach global history, geography, and cultural diversity, and the need for egalitarianism and tolerance?

Most of the academic studies that produced these predictors were focused on third world conflicts. We can only hope that their findings don’t translate to stabler, more affluent states.