![]() The article is still on the newsstands, and hence not yet available online, but in essence it sees three deliberate Bush-Greenspan policies leading to economic collapse in 2009:
The collapse scenario identifies a number of changes that occur like falling dominoes. What is interesting is that, much like the articles I have read about Peak Oil, about the non-sustainability of low interest rates, and about coming bubble burst in housing prices and (again) in stock markets, there is a recurrent ‘Factor of Four’ in this scenario1:
It seems to me that progressives’ inability to explain to the average voter the importance of these competitive advantages (not easy in our dumbed-down world, but doable) is one of the key reasons they are, at least in the US, in the political wilderness2. The consequence of this “every man for himself” doctrine is that in the event of a severe economic downturn (and there is evidence it has already begun if you look at the real indicators and not the phony ones like GNP), the vast majority will be “priced out of any chance for real opportunity”. The consequence of a population (a global population, because the US will take down most of the rest of the world with it) which is without hope of climbing out of desperate circumstances is almost too horrible to imagine — we need only look to Afghanistan, Rwanda, Palestine, or Darfur to see what happens when people just give up trying. Fallows suggests that only the rich and powerful elite will be immune to, and separated from, the effects of this economic collapse. Shielded by security guards in their homes, limos, penthouse offices and retirement villas from the staggering masses, they will be oblivious to it all (my grandparents regularly handed out food and other essentials to house-to-house beggars in the 1930s, to the great consternation of some of their peers and neighbours, who feared hordes of others would follow — they didn’t). But it seems to me that there’s a second way to insulate yourself from the impact of economic collapse, other than by becoming fabulously wealthy. And that is to be prepared. If you knew that in ten years the Factor of Four would be upon us, and the eight drastic changes in rates and prices bulleted above would then be in effect, what would you do starting now to prepare for it? The obvious steps:
You don’t need to do any of these things tomorrow, but it would be prudent to think seriously about doing them over the next few years. Think of it being like betting on a gambler in a casino who’s on a roll, tossing sevens and elevens one after the other. If you cash out of the living-beyond-your-means lottery too early, you’ll probably kick yourself for losing faith too soon, for not hanging in a little longer. But there’s lots of evidence from history that the consequences of cashing out too late will be much worse. And alas, as with all gambles, you’ll only know whether you did the right thing in hindsight. A final thought from Fallows’ article, and it’s about education. He quotes Danish executive Niels Christian Nielsen, a Director of companies on both sides of the Atlantic, from a U.Cal presentation earlier this year on the subject: The big difference between Europe and America is the proportion of people who come out of the [education] system really not being functional for any serious role. In Finland that is maybe 2-3%. In Europe in general maybe 15 or 20%. For the United States at least 30%, maybe more. In spite of all the press, Americans really don’t get the education difference. They generally still feel this is a well-educated country and workforce. They just don’t see how far the country is falling behind.
These two main themes from Fallows’ scenario — how reckless economic policy is leading inevitably to economic meltdown, and the importance of having a government that sets a good example of economic responsibility and public investment for the benefit of all its citizens — are inextricably intertwined. Bush’s failure on both counts threatens not only to lead to the ignominious end of the world’s last superpower, but to drag the rest of the world needlessly into a long period of great suffering and deprivation in the process. Notes: |
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Nice summary and analysis of the internal rot that contributes to ‘hegemonic decay’. Tax cuts for the rich mean that many wealthy Americans are divesting from society and investing in themselves. Slow income growth and persuasive marketing of easy credit mean that many non-wealthy Americans make no net investments at all. A society that doesn’t invest in its future will not survive – it will be replaced by something else. Having said all this, we should keep in mind that these are trends – that they can change – and that America at this moment has tremendous creativity, flexibility and energy still available for use in changing these trends. The individual decisions you recommend would certainly help.
Great post, dave. Thanks.
The end of the world is nigh! Repent oh yeh sinners! Repent!
My guess is that if all those “factors of four” actually come about, we’ll have a radical political upheaval in this country. No bankruptcy “reform” in the world will force that many people into Chapter 13 debt slavery. And if we have 1930s levels of unemployment as well, there aren’t enough sheriffs in the country to evict everyone for non-payment of rent/mortgage.
http://digitalskunk.blogspot.com/2005/06/peak-empire-introduction.html
Thanks for the comments and the links. Digital Skunk: “Energy in, garbage out” *sigh*
“The sky is falling,the sky is falling”.That’s my initial reaction to this bunk.Blaming Bush and Greenspan for every evil is ludicrous.While I don’t personally agree with many things attributed to either of them,they are two human beings trying to do a thankless job.You can’t please all the people all the time.Many of your suggestions are worthwhile. We should conserve,we should cut back overspending,indebtedness,dependence on oil and oil products.But instead of casting blame on two people who will soon both be out of a job,let’s focus on what we personally can do to make the world situation better by starting in our own homes and neighborhoods.Work in your community,help your family and neighbors,especially in times of crisis or need.If we could all start doing that instead of casting blame on two people for all our ills,we’d be far better off.From an Ordinary Citizen