A total of 25 responses were received by the deadline last Friday to my challenge to predict what will happen in 2006. There were only 8 responses to the supplementary questions about Canada, open only to Canadians.
Here are the questions and, in bold, the median answers of respondents. In cases where answers are not numeric, the most popular answer is noted in bold. US and World Events:
Canadian Events: (Canadian respondents only)
The overwhelming sense one gets from these answers is that most people think 2006 will be very much like 2005, with a continuation or a slight slowing of last year’s trends. I had not promised to offer a prize for the most accurate predictor unless I got 50 responses, but I will offer a prize, in January next year, to the person who had the most correct answers to the US and World Events questions. There weren’t enough responses to the Canadian Events questions to offer a prize in that category. The responses from Canadians mostly came after polls showed a surge in Conservative support, so I am surprised these responses still forecast a Liberal minority government. I hope they’re right. A projection of latest poll results suggests the Conservatives will get thirty seats more than our predictors forecast, almost enough for a majority, but still dependent on the separatist Bloc to stay in power. Since I’m not eligible to win, I’ll go on record here with my predictions, as of the day I posted the poll (if you asked me again today I’d reverse my answers to Canadian questions 1. & 2.): US & World Events: 1. (b) 950; 2. (c) 1950; 3. (b) decline of 10%; 4. (d) $9.1 trillion; 5. (e) $920 billion; 6. (e) 9.25%; 7. (d) 5.25%; 8. (b) 92; 9. (b) 50; 10. (a); 11. (b); 12. (b); 13. (d); 14. (b); 15. (b) Pakistan; 16. (b); 17. (d) $78; 18. (a) CIA will overthrow Chavez; 19 (a); 20 (b). Canadian Events: 1. (e) 116; 2. (c) 108; 3. (c) 18; 4. (c) 66; 5. (a); 6. (d); 7. (b); 8. (b); 9. (c); 10. (d) 90 cents; 11. (c); 12. (b) 9500. From time to time during the year I’ll report on how ‘the wisdom of crowds’ is faring, and how my guesses stack up by comparison. |
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Hi, I’d be interested in the percentages re 14. Thanks!
Just last night finished “The Wisdom of Crowds” by James Surowiecki. Took me very long to finish, and I’ll need to re-read to fully absorb it. Excellent concept, and it’s cool to see Dave putting wheels on this, even in a simple survey method. If you’ve not read that book, it’s on A9 (Amazon) used, in paperback, for $10.50 USD. I only wish there would have been, say, 500 respondants to the survey, we could have more accurately guessed how many jelly beans there really are in that um, plastic container ;)
Two points: one, I did take the Canadian poll before the poll results were out (or at least before I was aware of them) that showed the Conservatives were likely to win. If I were to respond again today, I think my response would be very different. It’s looking now like the Tories might even get a majority! Scary stuff!Second, I think it should be noted that a lot of the prediction questions are about strongly correlated economic indicators, and are in some sense redundant. When I was thinking of my responses, I had the overwhelming feeling that there were three choices to consider for most questions: will there be strong economic growth in 2006, will there be minimal change, or will this be the year that the crash hits? I myself didn’t want to cry wolf and say this is the year the crash will hit; indeed, I’m not convinced that there WILL be a catastrophic crash, more likely a series of mini-crashes leading to long-term economic decline, and I’m not so bold as to predict precisely when that will happen.
I am reading Jared Diamond’s “Collapse – how societys succeed or fail” and wonder at the conservative responses. Are we really so determined to maintain status quo and ignore the trends and see the effects of our actions? I look forward to the perodic updates, but it is my pick that change will continue to appear to speed up, rather than plod along.
Lugon: 21 (84%) for (b), 2 (8%) for (c), 1 (4%) each for (a) and (d).B. Mills: Thanks for encouraging people to read a great book AND save trees in the process.Chris: Agreed, the ‘long emergency’ will happen in cascades, gradually worsening, rather than a single crash. But at least we dodged the bullet of a Harper majority.James: Yeah, I think so too.