map of some of the ~800 US military bases outside of the US, from this video
Following is my response to a request for my “take” on what’s behind what’s going on in Ukraine:
My sense is that if you want to get closer to the answers, follow the money:
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- The US DOD/Pentagon/”intelligence” community is burning through a trillion dollars a year, essentially with nothing to show for it except dead civilians in their many proxy wars in Yemen etc. After the US gave up the ghost in Afghanistan, how do they justify this spending without an evil enemy?
- Russia turned the other cheek when the US/NATO installed dozens of military bases in the Baltics, in Poland and all around Russia’s borders in what were supposed to be non-aligned nations. These bases are staggeringly expensive and were an obvious provocation to Russia, as are the similar bases all along China’s coast.
- The US didn’t care about Crimea, or DPR/LPR in E Ukraine, or the occupation of pro-Russian provinces in Sakartvelo (Georgia), or the occupation of Transnistria. When those things happened, the US was up to its ears in other wars. With military spending five times larger than any other manufacturing industry in the US, and half of the total “discretionary” government budget, they have to constantly drum up crises to keep the war industry, and the whole US economy, from tanking.
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So, IMO, this was a deliberate provocation, preceded by utter saturation of the mainstream media over the last 12-18 months with anti-Russia and anti-China propaganda, to force Russia (and China will be next) to act belligerently, to justify US/NATO military action, to justify their budget (and in the case of NATO, to justify its very existence).
Of course Putin acted badly — he has to play to his home crowd or they’ll throw him out. His objective (and his “invasion” is peanuts compared to what he could have done if he really wanted to annex the whole country) is to bully Ukraine into agreeing to not join NATO, and to not abandon its economic ties with Russia (on which they’re essentially codependent) in favour of EU membership. That’s all he wants. But if he was simply allowed that, it would become jarringly clear that NATO is a useless extravagance that should simply be abolished, and that the US military needs to be slashed both in its size (and budgets) and its influence. Can’t have that happening.
Imagine this: If Canada were to accept Russia’s invitation to join a military alliance with it, enabling Russia to put military and missile bases on the Canada-US border, do you think the US would just shrug and allow it to happen? And if the US were to then invade Canada to protect itself and install a pro-American government here, which side would be in the right? The answer, of course, is neither. There are no good guys, only insane risks, in this unnecessary war.
I’d be terrified, if I weren’t so absolutely furious. We’re being played, again. Did we learn nothing from Iraq?
utter saturation of the mainstream media over the last 12-18 months with anti-Russia and anti-China propaganda, to force Russia (and China will be next) to act belligerently, to justify US/NATO military action, to justify their budget (and in the case of NATO, to justify its very existence)
What? You’re actually saying that Russia invaded Ukraine because it was “forced” to act by anti-Russian propaganda promulgated by US media? You think that Putin takes his cues from the NY Times or the Washington Post and that they manipulated him into justifying the existence of NATO? To think that Putin could have spoiled all their nefarious plans by simply refusing to invade Ukraine. Poor Vladimir; what a patsy!
I’m no big fan of the US military industrial complex, but your theory is … let’s just say it’s over-the-top. In my opinion, there were almost no economic or military reasons why Putin decided to invade and occupy the entire country of Ukraine, especially now. Ego, madness or boredom are all far more plausible reasons for Putin’s behavior than his being suckered by US media into propping up NATO. I mean, really?
Nope, Joe, what I’m saying is that what forced Putin’s hand was (1) the overthrow of a Russia-friendly government in Ukraine in 2014, with the support of NATO members, followed by (2) the 2016 invitation from NATO to Ukraine “in principle” to join NATO, followed by (3) the elected Ukraine government in 2019 reasserting its plan to join NATO, followed by (4) the Sep 2020 Ukraine Security Plan to sever security and economic ties with Russia and join NATO and the EU. This is a proxy war over Ukraine’s (and then Georgia’s) membership in NATO and the EU. Putin has repeatedly made it clear since 2006 that he is fine with Ukraine and Georgia being non-aligned neutral states, but will not tolerate their joining NATO and installing more military bases and missiles on Russia’s border.
Zelenskyy is a reality-show actor, caught between two feuding groups of rich Ukrainian oligarchs with opposing vested interests in security/economic alliances. He’s way over his head, and was forced to take sides after trying to walk a neutral path. Now he’s yelling at NATO for not enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which is precisely what NATO membership would entail in a conflict, and which even the ideological bozos in NATO are smart enough to realize would be tantamount to WW3.
And this is precisely why NATO membership for these countries is a non-starter, as even France has asserted. It’s the exact equivalent of Canada joining a military alliance with Russia and allowing Russian military and missile bases on the Great Lakes. It’s a declaration of war. If you can suggest an alternative to Putin to installing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and reversing the NATO plans, other than what he’s done, I’d like to hear it. Because NATO has steadfastly refused to rescind that offer of membership and is already conducting “joint exercises” on Ukrainian soil, as NATO has openly acknowledged.
Dave, I know from reading you for several years that you do not have the mind set of a red-hot radical, and yet your columns now read as such. That is because the Overton Window has shifted so far to the right that the common sense which your columns have always embodied now sounds like what most casual readers would call Russian propaganda. All of this tells me that I needn’t spend any money on new clothes.
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1MTg0ODY5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0OTgwNDM1NiwiXyI6Ik9ldHUvIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQ2NTc3Njk1LCJleHAiOjE2NDY1ODEyOTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi04MjEyNCIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.CjqtdMlMnsWyz_Q8hy3Ok-bZEIKg4zzYD9BZ-_GRsMM&s=r
As always, you have a very insightful perspective. The Canadian/Russia scenario was a useful picture to paint, thank you. You highlight the necessity within the “system” to feed the military complex and the NATO ideology.
Consider for a minute something different … the following isn’t ‘necessarily’ my perspective, but I am trying to challenge assumptions, IF (that’s a big if) the best possible outcome would be for NATO and the good ole’ American superpower and European allies to be the primary power behind the NWO. China and Russia are already somewhat subservient to the West (culture) in terms of culture and human rights. The attrition of these ideologies, especially in a futurity where resources will be scarce and the probability of collapse is statistically significant, is something that a super power alliance (like NATO) should be concerned about.
Before you dismiss this counterfactual imagining, challenge yourself to defend a position where you had to choose between a hierarchical Russian culture, a totalitarian culture from China and the culture of free speech, liberty and considerably more freedom represented by NATO. “I shouldn’t have to choose”, you may say. You are right, however, the heuristic is useful because nothing is guaranteeing the pluralistic superpowers that represent our 20th and 21st Century balance of power where ideological differences all get along in the playground. Take away food, make resources scarce, experience collapse and then ask what kind of world you want to live in and what scenario would be better for future generations?
Again, I am not defending this position but your helpful article does have an aspect of sympathy for Russia, in other words, we poked the Bear and the aggression we are witnessing is partially our own fault. By “our” I mean US.
Besides the horrors this conflict will inflict on the peoples of Russia and the Ukraine, which are going to be horrible indeed, the really horrible lesson everyone will take away from this invasion is the necessity for strategic deterence capability, i.e. nuclear weapons.
Please don’t forget the Budapest Memorandum, wherein Ukraine agreed to give up its legacy nukes in return for development cash and promises of secure borders from the US, UK and Russia. Ukraine did its part, but when Russia changed its mind about those secure borders and annexed Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, the government of Ukraine understandably complained and asked the West, “Hey, what about our secure borders”. Silence.
Despite your implication that all of the West’s machinations are designed to threaten Russia, the US and NATO did virtually nothing about the Crimea and Donbas annexations. This inaction is far more likely the proximate cause of Russia’s later full scale invasion than any possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. The US and UK failure to stand up for Ukraine’s borders (and their promises) proved that they, and NATO, were paper tigers.
So, the takeaway from this event is that if you are a small country near a large military power and if there is any chance at all that you might be invaded, the best solution is not multilateral defense treaties, but getting, or keeping, nuclear weapons. I suspect that Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (perhaps also the Baltic nations, Poland and other eastern European countries) will rapidly pursue getting nukes as fast as they can.
Being a member of NATO or a mutual defense pact with the US was supposed to be the next best thing to being a nuclear power for national security. Russia has just proved that being promised secure borders is not enough. It’s also raised doubts that being a member of NATO is enough. The scramble for nuclear weapons will now go into overdrive. Thanks, Vladimir.
Your arguments are beside the point. Of course, the west is hypocritical, has spent billions on illegal wars, has committed crimes that it has got away with, etc. etc. Our ignorant actions may well have contributed importantly to Putin’s rise to power (our truly appalling advice during the 1990s on privatisation and other matters, our casual expansion of the EC and NATO, our bases along Russia’s frontiers, our energy policies, our weak response to Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea etc. etc.).
The same could be said about the Western victors of the First World War and the rise to absolute power of Hitler (e.g., the disastrous Treaty of Versailles, the lack of support for Weimar, appeasement/Munich etc. etc.) and how we fought the second war (notably the criminal bombing of Hamburg, Tokyo, Dresden and other civilian targets, not to speak of Hiroshima and Nagasaki). But ultimately the Second World War was not at its core about these matters, serious though they were, but about a choice between a Hitler victory and an Allied Victory and the certainty that Hitler would never be satisfied if he had signed a ‘peace’ treaty at some stage. Our Western society and way of government were just far preferable to those that Hitler would have imposed not least on us – although of course we won largely because of the Soviet Union which went on to impose terrible regimes in Eastern Europe (which I suppose we could do little about until we prevailed in the Cold War).
The same goes for Putin (and, for that matter, Stalin whom Putin admires). If you don’t believe me read ‘Putin’s People’ by Catherine Belton. Her book to me is utterly convincing. But, of course, there is a massive amount of other evidence about his regime – ask Navalny (and before him Nemstov until Putin had him murdered), not to speak of how Putin fights his wars (think of Grozny and Aleppo, and now Kharkiv even though it has a largely Russian-speaking population whom Putin says are Russians just like him – but then Stalin also murdered millions of his own citizens not least the three million plus in the Ukraine famine of the 1930s, and in the gulag). And in my view you are simply wrong when you say things like ‘All he wants is …’). I simply do not trust him – he will always want more. Incidentally your opinion of Zelenskyy is a travesty and shows real meanness of spirit.
Despite all our serious faults, when faced with the choice between our type of society and that of Putin there is to my mind absolutely no doubt which to choose and Ukraine is absolutely right to want to make that choice. How to get there is of course complicated by two overwhelming facts that did not face us in the second world war – nuclear weapons and the rise of China (though I suppose Japan was a little like China). But these issue raise huge issues that I will not go into here.
A little more background from Caitlin:
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/06/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on-the-imperial-chessboard/
Caitlin’s thesis: “The western world is now a united front against the Sauron-like menace of Vladimir Putin in much the same way it united against the threat of global terrorism after 9/11, and we’re probably only seeing the beginnings of the agendas this will be used to roll out.
We can expect these agendas to be used in an attempt to impoverish, undermine, agitate, and ultimately collapse and balkanize Russia, as the CIA and Washington swamp monsters have wanted to do since the fall of the Soviet Union.”
Even if this was true, Putin could have easily disrupted this “agenda” by simply remaining out of Ukraine, selling a lot of oil and gas, using the money to benefit the people of Russia and prepare for the day the gas and oil run out. Russia is a country rich in talent and resources and could be comfortably prosperous long after the West is well into decline. I can’t understand why Putin is risking all that.
And I have no doubt at all that the US and European countries would have been very happy for Russia to turn out more like their own countries after the fall of the Soviet Union (a wealthy, free-market, capitalist trading partner), rather than a “collapsed” and “impoverished” nation.
It’s true that the list of countries the US has invaded is far longer than the list of countries that Russia has invaded and a fair number of US invasions have been really stupid, but like Jeremy Berkoff noted in his comment above some invasions turn out better than others. Would you rather live in post-invasion Japan and Germany or in Chechnya and Belarus.
I’ll be interested to see what Johnstone says after Putin does to Ukrainian cities what he did to Grozny. And I wonder how we will all feel after watching the West stand back and let him do it. Caitlin might revel in shadenfreude after seeing the almighty West so powerless, but most people will just be sickened.
I don’t think Putin ever had the option of staying out of Ukraine. We’re talking about the conversion of one of Russia’s few remaining neighbours and major trading partners into a military and economic ally of NATO and the EU, and the severing of military, security and economic ties with Russia, leaving it completely isolated and at the mercy of its 10x more powerful foe. Anyone who thinks any country can stand up to the power of the global military, economic and financial might of the US (eg cutting them off from international banking, trade, aviation and credit networks) doesn’t understand how intertwined and interdependent our global systems have become, and now much those systems obey the marching orders from their commanders in Washington.
This is a divorce, with all the rage and rancour and problems that that brings up. As Zelenskyy is starting to realize, he’s being hoodwinked by his new suitor, whose end game since the end of WW2 has been to destroy his old suitor, Russia, to reduce it to a defeated, de-nuked, and ultimately vassal state. NATO doesn’t give two shits about Ukraine and its “security”. This is just a game by the angry stuck-in-the-Cold-War NATO “alliance”, which is really just the US and those it has bribed, blackmailed and bullied to “support” it.
Facing that, Putin is, as is often the case, abusing its partner, trying to cajole it into “getting back together” the only way it has left. Because once the US military bases go up in Ukraine and Georgia, Russia is toast. The sanctions that are now being tested will then be used to cripple and bring down the Russian government and economy, and move one step closer to unipolar power. You really don’t think that’s the DOD/Pentagon/NATO’s end game? Just watch.
Just read it aloud to Connie, and we both love it.
Really excellent… and, yes right on the money!
(Pun intended.)
Thanks, brother!
~ Michael and Connie
P.S. I found the following also helpful, along similar lines…
Experts Warned for Years that NATO Expansion Would Lead to This / Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/experts-warned-for-years-that-nato
The War in Ukraine | Glenn Greenwald
https://youtu.be/46bzpo2fPTw
Chris Hedges: Chronicle of a War Foretold
https://scheerpost.com/2022/02/24/hedges-the-chronicle-of-a-war-foretold/
Interview with Hedges (on Ukraine, Russia & NATO) about the above article
Interview: https://youtu.be/_I6ZkPi6NSI
Russia-Ukraine: The Real Backdrop Nobody Will Discuss
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/the-real-backdrop-nobody-will-discuss/
Pipeline Ploy: How U.S. Natural Gas Interests Are Fueling the Ukraine Crisis
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pipeline-ploy-how-us-natural-gas-interests-fueling-ukraine-crisis/5772100
I don’t think Putin ever had the option of staying out of Ukraine. We’re talking about the conversion of one of Russia’s few remaining neighbours and major trading partners into a military and economic ally of NATO and the EU, and the severing of military, security and economic ties with Russia, leaving it completely isolated and at the mercy of its 10x more powerful foe.
Really? Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, all the West did to Russia after the breakup of the USSR was send it money for oil, gas and food. I guess we put Russia at our ‘mercy’ by flooding it with cash. Did Russia ever really have anything to fear from Europe and the US? Why shouldn’t Russia be a military and economic ally of NATO and the EU along with all the other nations of Europe? You may think that Russia-Europe cooperation and friendship was always impossible, but if Russia had really wanted to seek that kind of status, it was there for the asking. Putin never wanted to ask.
And if Europe and the US wanted to crush Russia into oblivion, why didn’t they attempt it long ago? Why in the world would Europe make itself dependent on Russian gas if it sought domination of Russia? These are not silly or irrelevant questions. People who think the NATO countries have always been eager and ready to invade Russia, take over its territory and “reduce it to a vassal state” have got to come up with some better evidence than I’ve seen so far.
The reason Russia is not now on very friendly terms with Ukraine and the rest of Europe lies deep inside the brain of Vladimir Putin. We can only speculate about Putin’s mental state, but Russia’s turn toward dictatorship and empire building started there long ago. Putin has always sought lifelong absolute power over Russia and has done what he needed to do to stay in power for over 23 years. This is the kind of man who just wants power. This is the kind of man who wants an empire. Invading Ukraine is just part of that pattern. Blaming the invasion on NATO is bizarre.
The other big question: how exactly could the US and the NATO alliance have prevented the invasion of Ukraine? Would Putin accept promises from NATO that Ukraine would never be a member? NATO membership wasn’t even on the table when Russia annexed Crimea and parts of the Donbas. Would NATO be able to persuade Ukraine that their sovereignty was expendable and that Russia should be able to call the shots on all things political? The evidence of Ukrainian resolve since the invasion indicates that they wouldn’t easily roll over to Russian dominance, even if that was the preference of the West.
All in all, I think the recent history of the Russia-Ukraine relationship indicates that there was little that the US and NATO could do to influence Russia regarding Ukraine. “Blame the US first” works often, indeed far too often, but in this case it’s a mistake.
Joe: It is, of course, complex. My reading of the long history of this suggests a very different explanation and future course of events than yours, and that’s fine. We’re not going to convince each other.
Russia DID accept assurances from the West that Warsaw Pact nations would not be invited to join NATO, and later that Ukraine and Georgia would not be invited, but NATO reneged on both agreements. If Putin had not invaded Ukraine to install a pro-Russian government there, those two countries would soon become NATO members with missile and military bases on Russia’s border. And then the remaining Asian countries in the former Soviet Union would be invited, until Russia was completely isolated. And then the US/NATO would go to work to destabilize Russia, blaming this isolation on Putin or his successor, to wreck it like they have so many other “belligent” countries not falling in line, and/or incite civil war that would eventually produce a pro-US government willing to unilaterally disarm and join the US Empire.
If you look at the map, and all those red dots, it’s obvious that a unipolar US-controlled Empire has always been, for 75 years now, US/NATO’s end game. It has nothing to do with “defence” of anyone.
Ukraine has undeveloped natural gas, which could compete with Russia. Oil and gas is Russia’s big stick .
Dave: It is indeed complicated. Here’s a good discussion about those complications.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-fiona-hill.html?showTranscript=1
Thanks for this post, Daoudjan. I forwarded it to friends who read it with interest.
One interesting anecdotal tidbit. A Russian language tutor I have who lives in a large city in the south of Russia passed on the following: apparently a lot of Russians actually are happy for the sanctions. Why? Because before all this they couldn’t afford a lot of these Western goodies. And now a much larger portion of the population will no longer have access to these imported goods and services. (my tutor has gone into a fair amount of detail about how these sanctions are hitting ordinary people; it’s a pretty awful situation. Panic buying, stocking up frantically on all essentials…memories of the 90’s…)
Misery loves company!
“Ego, madness or boredom” ? Ridiculous. As much as I dislike using that word brainwashed, these reasons are parroting of establishment media’s moronic reasons for the Russian military invading Ukraine. Putin has told the US, NATO & the world numerous times this was coming & why.
Anyone who has listened to any number of Putin speeches or comments has heard him warning. Same if they had been listening to Sergeĭ Lavrov. A number of Russian experts, historians, political scientists have been discussing & writing about this scenario happening for some time. We’ve long known what would trigger this response from the Russian nation.
There’s a little back ground, some international relations & history fundamentals required to understand what’s going on, but I already did climate change kindergarten for over a decade. I’m not doing history pre school.
My poor Boomer mom, glued to the idiot box & US establishment media ‘news’ & ‘The View’ is hyper triggered over ‘that damn Putin’ big time. Raw emotion. She is clueless. It’s all about Boggy man Putin – cuz he’s evil-N-stuff.
I was actually surprised to see this at The Guardian
Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored
It has long been clear that Nato expansion would lead to tragedy. We are now paying the price for the US’s arrogance
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine
The cries of ‘evil’ are very one sided. Whenever they spin these cartoon simple, black & white Manichean narratives in a world that’s 1000 shades of grey, be wary.
Profile: Who are Ukraine’s far-right Azov regiment?
The far-right neo-Nazi group has expanded to become part of Ukraine’s armed forces, a street militia and a political party.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment
Not the first time the West turned a blind eye to Nazi scum when it suits them.
Thanks DrS: I’d missed the Guardian article by Ted Carpenter.
And from early February, a reminder of some of that Neo- N thinking…
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAlexRubi/status/1497747535783411714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497747535783411714%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mintpressnews.com%2Fukraine-jewish-president-zelensky-made-peace-neo-nazi-paramilitaries%2F279862%2F