Breakthrough Business Ideas for 2008

mauboussin HBR graphic
O
nce a year HBR publishes a set of “breakthrough ideas” for business. The February 2008 edition has this year’s collection. Some of them are the usual psychobabble, technophilia and corporatist leader/strategic management nonsense that pervades most of the business journal echo-chamber, but there are seven interesting ideas in the list (the italicized prognoses are my own):

  • The Coming Peer-to-Peer Economy: This gets top ranking in the HBR list, though the writers clearly don’t know what it is all about. As Umair Haque explains so well, it’s really about walking away from the corporatist economy of artificial scarcity, oligopoly and imaginative poverty and creating a new economy with no zero-value-added intermediaries. It’s about getting rid of the massive distortions in the marketplace that allow wealth to accrue to those who do nothing to earn it. If HBR really understood this, and how much it threatens the economic orthodoxy of which they’re a part, it wouldn’t have been on the list. Prognosis: It will come, later rather than sooner, but big business won’t like it.
  • Projects, not Careers: This is the idea that in the future we will spend our work life working on a series of projects, with different partners, each doing what we do best, rather than working in one company or one series of positions. It’s an interesting idea, and one that technology makes more possible, but it won’t work for two very human reasons. First, the best work is collaborative, and collaboration requires trust and knowledge of one’s collaborators. And secondly, because we get meaning and satisfaction not only from what we do but from who we do it with. Many people are doing work they don’t particularly like because they love who they’re working with. We’re not all meant to be taxi drivers. Prognosis: We’ll try it, but it just won’t work.
  • The Brain-Friendly Workplace: We are meant to be constantly on the move, standing, walking, running, fit. I’ve been working standing up for the last two years and it’s improved my productivity and stamina. HBR goes a step further, saying that treadmills in the workplace and constant movement would make us all more productive. Prognosis: Way too unorthodox to become mainstream business behaviour.
  • Open Space Events for Problem Solving: The HBR writers use the term BarCamp, but what they’re describing is essential Open Space: When you have a problem you can’t solve, engage your customers, employees and others in a self-managed workshop to surface and explore ideas and decide on appropriate actions. The Wisdom of Crowds. Prognosis: Only the smartest businesses will dare use it.
  • Virtual Worlds for Simulation and Scenario Planning: Virtual worlds (“metaverses”) that have thousands of participants are complex systems, just like the real world. But it is much less expensive to bring people together and test out ideas and scenarios in virtual worlds than in the real world. Prognosis: The technology isn’t there yet, but it will come.
  • Virtual Worlds for Marketing and Sales: If you can do anything, including watching TV, reading and listening to radio in a virtual world, to the point many people can and will spend their whole lives in such worlds (looking beautiful, with huge mansions, fast cars, and friends and lovers to enjoy them with), will business need to reorient itself to customers that will only buy ‘inworld’? Or will the peer-to-peer economy be such that everything inworld will be free? Prognosis: They once thought there was money to be made with blogs and other social software. When will they learn?
  • Knowing When Not to Use Experts: Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds explained that most of the things executives and experts do they cannot possibly do as well as a reasonably informed diverse crowd of people who care about the issue at hand. In his contribution to the list,Mike Mauboussin explains (see graphic above) how rarely experts and executives should be the key decision-makers. Prognosis: Executives still think they know everything so this isn’t going to happen; besides, given the obscene amounts many executives and experts earn, they don’t dare admit they don’t have all the answers.
Category: Business Innovation

PS: Today is the 5th anniversary of How to Save the World.

I love, and read, all your comments and e-mails, but I can’t promise to respond tothem.

Posted in Working Smarter | 5 Comments

A Miniature Truth: Becoming Authentically Yourself

aphidBecause of the recent publication of my article on Miniature Truths, and the fact that my trip to Belize gave me time, at last, to think, I decided to write a series of occasional articles on miniature truths. Note that such truths aren’t necessarily self-evident — we live in such a complex world, with such complicated man-made systems, that what might be self-evident to a child, or an alien visitor, will not be so to someone living in the midst of modern society.

I’ve already written about a few miniature truths that have emerged for me after a lot of thought and a lot of fortuitous experience; most of them are what I’ve learned about human nature in trying to make the world a better place:

  1. We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, then we do what’s fun (Pollard’s Law). There is no time left for what’s merely important, for ‘doing the right thing’. This law seems to govern all human behaviour, everywhere. Thanks, by the way, to those who tried to get this Law into Wikipedia, only to be told by the Wikipolice that “an idea presented on a blog does not warrant inclusion in Wikipedia”.
  1. Things are the way they are for a reason; if you have any hope to change something, first understand what that reason is. It’s rarely obvious. Reality is evolutionary, and so is change.
  1. Life’s meaning, and an understanding of what needs to be done, emerges, most often, from conversation in community with people you love. This is based on an idea by Nancy White and her colleagues. It is the key to changing anything, whether you it be the political or economic system, and whether you want to save the whales, stop global warming, reform education, spark innovation or anything else. 
  1. Community is born of necessity. This I learned from Joe Bageant’s son (via Joe) when I visited him recently. Consistent with Pollard’s Law above, experimental, Intentional Communities can only succeed when their members have no choice but to make them work. 
  1. To get people to change, first Let-Yourself-Change, to become a model that shows people personally, one-to-one, a better way to live, rather than just telling them what to do. — Gandhi, with a bit of amplification. 
  1. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete, a working model of a better way, one that others can follow. — Bucky Fuller. You want to save the world? Do it bottom up, not top down. 
  1. Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.Margaret Mead. Although many doubt that small working models of a better way to live are scalable i.e. that they could become pervasive in our society and actually replace what’s dysfunctional, there is evidence that only such models are scalable.
  1. To be nobody-but-yourself — in a world which is doing its best, night and day,
    to make you everybody else — means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting.– ee cummings
  1. Our civilization is in its final century. This is the important lesson of John Gray’s Straw Dogs. It doesn’t matter what we try to do to reform it, every civilization ends, and ours will be no different. That’s not depressing, it’s invigorating and liberating. The world will be just fine without us. We need to do everything we can to make the world a better place for those we love and for our children and grandchildren now, to reduce suffering. But at the same time we should live a life of joy, every day, a natural life, not a life of struggle and sacrifice to save what cannot be saved.

During my pilgrimage to Belize, I came up with two more miniature truths. Here’s the first of them:

  • The key to Letting-Yourself-Change is to get rid of the gunk that you have collected throughout your life that prevents you from being authentically yourself.

When I was a child, I was wild. Not in the sense of being unmanageable — I was quite attentive back then. Wild in the sense of uncivilized, raw, open, unrepressed, natural. I am told I was constantly taking my clothes off, not to show off but because I found them confining, unnatural, and saw nothing embarrassing about nudity.

I was fearless (I did a photoshoot as a baby, hamming it up for the camera, that appeared on the front page of the local newspaper), I was imaginative (too much so for my neighbourhood friends, who couldn’t follow the games I invented), affectionate (my favourite game as soon as I could walk was ‘kissing tag’, since most of the kids my age in the neighbourhood were girls). Back then I struggled with communication (I didn’t learn to write reasonably well until my late teens, read little until then, and was nervous singing (I was a pretty good boy soprano) and talking in crowds.

And then all the trappings of civilization came rushing in — the cruel games kids play, the preference for cute, athletic, clever, funny, well-coordinated friends (I got pretty gangly-looking as I aged, my voice broke so my singing teacher lost interest in me, and I was terribly coordinated — I couldn’t swim or dance and my penmanship was illegible. I began to acquire a lot of the fears, doubts, and prejudices of the groups I desperately wanted to belong to, which were only made worse as my advances were rebuffed). I became a loner, and not even a ‘smart’ one.

By the end of high school, I’d acquired some talents that were popular, became a scholar, and regained my self-esteem in spades. But in the process, and even since then, I’ve picked up a lot of ‘stuff’ that isn’t me. I’ve become, in many respects, “everybody-else”.

My days are now terribly busy, even without family responsibilities to look after. My job and my book both have a lot of self-imposed responsibility, that I took on willingly and knowingly, because they’re consistent with my passion for supporting Natural Entrepreneurs and building caring communities working to make the world a better place. But it’s slow going and time consuming. My blog carries with it the responsibility to write useful stuff, often, and to at least try to respond to readers’ comments. Looking at a backlog of over 100 e-mails and months of unanswered comments (not to mention an obsolete blogroll and table of contents, that will take weeks of work to update) I can only groan at the workload that lies ahead of me.

In an article a month ago I wrote about how I thought I should ideally spend each day:

  • 9 hours a day for sleeping and personal hygiene
  • 2 hours a day for physical exercise — running, meditation, working out, yoga, hiking etc.
  • 3 hours a day for play — learning things you love, having non-competitive fun, just paying attention and being in the moment, and expressing love and joy in different ways
  • 3 hours a day for meaningful conversation — not small-talk, conversations with intention (this time could include meal-times)
  • 2 hours a day for reflection — thinking, reading/watching/listening to actionable information and stimulating entertainment content, and deciding, thinking ahead, considering what it all means and what needs to be done as a result
  • 2 hours a day for creation — writing, model-building, sketching, composing
  • 3 hours a day for action — first/next steps towards doing important things, productive actions that make the world a better place
  • 0 hours a day doing work that isn’t one of the above types of activities
  • 0 hours a day for administration, paperwork, ‘non-value-added’ work
  • 0 hours a day driving to and from places
  • 0 hours a day shopping
  • 0 hours a day waiting
  • 0 hours a day for chores
  • 0 hours a day for small talk
  • 0 hours a day for reading/watching/listening to mindless, unactionable stuff

In fact, I’m not getting enough time for sleep, exercise, play, meaningful conversation, reflection, creation or action. Why? Because my life is full of time spent dealing with all the commitments I’ve taken on. And because I’m spreading myself way too thin, taking on too much. I keep forgetting how to say no. My twelve suggestions for making more time for what’s important in that earlier article just aren’t working. I suspect I’m caught up in Pollard’s Law myself, procrastinating on doing things that are important (and which I mostly really want to do) but that are time- and energy-consuming, in favour of things that are easy, undemanding.

But underneath all that, I think, is this growing sense that I’m not myself. The real, authentic me would not take on commitments that would be unreasonable and tedious to discharge. The real, authentic me would not procrastinate. The real, authentic me would not find himself fretting about my work backlog, or watching TV because I’m just too tired to do anything else.

So if (as I claim above) things are the way they are for a reason, what is the reason for this? How did I become “everybody else” and stop being “nobody but myself”, as cummings put it? I think it may be because, like most people, I respond to attention and appreciation, and love — and when I get it I agree to do almost anything to keep it coming. With love such a scarce commodity in our terrible world, is there anything we won’t do for it, including becoming “everybody else”?

I think this is why I’m such a visceral believer in polyamorism, even though I haven’t been able to make the argument for it very articulately. If I felt, as a did as a young child, that I was surrounded by unqualified love, that it was everywhere and eternal, would I then stop taking on commitments I don’t want and can’t keep? Would I then stop changing myself into what I’m not, adding all this gunk that isn’t me, just to nurture a scarce and uncertain commodity that is naturally abundant?

Is the lack of love, in family, in community, everywhere, what’s behind the loneliness, the desperation, the anomie that we see everywhere in our society, which becomes pathology and violence and misery and cruelty?

I suspect the gunk we accumulate is mostly protective, the stuff of fear and uncertainty and anxiety over the potential loss of intimate connection, which we all need to survive.

It’s not yet an intention, because I’m not sure I can do it, but I’m going to start working to be fearless about the loss of attention, appreciation, and love, to believe that it can be abundant, and to start saying no to things that are not really important to me, regardless of the consequences. And to do fewer things, the things I’m really good at (imagining possibilities, and writing) better, and exclusively. Perhaps in so doing I can become, for the first time in my life, a model — of courage, of generosity, of authenticity, of getting important things done.

And in so doing, perhaps I can become, as I was as a young child, raw, naked, wild. Nobody but myself.

Category: Let-Self-Change

I love, and read, all your comments, but I can’t promise to respond to them. If you want to chat, send me your GMail address and I’ll schedulea time to GTalk with you in real time..
Posted in Collapse Watch | 10 Comments

Saturday Links of the Week — February 2, 2008

antarctic ice melt
Three weeks’ backlog of links, so I’ll keep it short:

Art, Science, Literature, Philosophy:


Preparing for Civilization’s End:

Politics and Economics:

A Second Life Diary: Our new blog, co-authored with my Second Life intentional community co-developer Mia, is now up at Gaia.com (formerly Zaadz). It will chronicle our experiment to create an Intentional Community in Second Life, discussions about love, conversation, community and polyamorism with other Second Life denizens, and other thoughts and discoveries about Second Life and other online social media. Relevant articles from How to Save the World will be crossposted there, and viceversa. Come visit!
Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | Comments Off on Saturday Links of the Week — February 2, 2008

Friday Flashback: Frederick Barthelme’s 39 Steps for Story Writers

Frederick BarthelmeFrederick Barthelme, my favourite novelist and short-story writer, put together a checklist of things for writers to learn and remember that has guided all my creative work. It’s simply brilliant, and extremely funny. My favourites from the list, which I’ve written about on the blog several times:

  • Mean less. That is, don’t mean so much. Make up a story, screw around with it, paste junk on it, needle the characters, make them say queer stuff, go bad places, insert new people at inopportune moments, do some drive-bys. Make it up, please.
  • We can’t care about sand mutants; if you do, or think you do, kill yourself.
  • Coherence is a big part of the game. Make sure the story is coherent, that the scenes flow each from the last, that the reader has the clearest sense at all times of what is going on. Obscurity is not subtlety; intentional obscurity is pinheaded and unkind.
  • If you write a sentence that isn’t poignant, touching, funny, intriguing, inviting, etc., take it out before you finish the work. Don’t just leave it there. Don’t let anyone see it. To repeat, there is no place for rubbish & slop in the highly modern world of today’s fiction. Every sentence must pay, must somehow thrill. Every one.
  • Apropos the big issues, note that parents don’t sit around getting heartbroken about abortion, they get heartbroken because they killed the baby. Or, because the baby was born with fins for hands. It’s the particular.
  • No characters named Brooke or Amber.
  • Don’t let it make too much sense. Doing odd stuff is good, especially like when you make characters do it in the story, like when stuff is happening to them and they just do this unexpected, even inappropriate stuff, and then somehow it makes a little sense.
  • Don’t let too many paragraphs go by without sensory information, something that can be felt, smelt, touched, tasted.
  • Don’t reject interesting stuff (things for characters to say and do, things to see, places to be, etc.) because the stuff doesn’t conform to your idea. Change your idea to wrap it around the stuff.
  • Also, when doing the above, notice the things you notice in your own “real” life — like what’s at the horizon, how the sun is in the sky, what kind of light’s going on, the way the street, ground, grass, dirt looks, your interest in bushes, what’s happening at the edges of things — buildings and signs and cars, the sounds of stuff going on around the scene — who’s that wheezing? what’s that rattle? are those leaves preparing to rustle? Etc.

In case you haven’t yet discovered his work, here’s a lovely passage from Barthelme’s book Elroy Nights, that I think resonates with a lot of us aging baby-boomers, 

As I drove across the bridge, I thought how we’d started as young people insisting on living the way we wanted, and how we’d gradually retreated from that, from doing what we wanted. Things change. What you want becomes something you can’t imagine having wanted, and instead you have this, suddenly and startlingly not at all what you sought. One day you find yourself walking around in Ralph Lauren shorts and Cole Haan loafers and no socks. You think, How did this happen? It isn’t a terrible spot, and you don’t feel bad about being there, being the person you are in the place you are, with the wife or husband you have, the step-daughter, the friends and acquaintances, the house and tools and toys, the job, but there is no turning back. You have a Daytimer full of things to do. You have a Palm PDA and names and addresses and contacts, and there is no way back. Even if there were a way back, you couldn’t get there from here, and you probably wouldn’t go if you could. The effort required isn’t the kind of effort you can makeanymore.
Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 1 Comment

In Search of Meaningful Conversation

meaningful conversation
If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.”
   — Goethe

I‘ve never been a fan of small-talk. I appreciate that you need a personal context for conversation — I’ve tried to have meaningful conversations (via IM or voice-to-voice) with people who have commented on my weblog posts, and face-to-face with people I’ve just met, but it’s hard.

As soon as I have that context, however — a subject of shared passion, an understanding of why the person I’m conversing with cares about that subject, and an appreciation of how they communicate (not how well, just how: we all converse differently and you need to chat long enough to pick up a sense of their conversational style) — as soon as I have that, I’m ready to waltz them outside the rest of the crowd and engage one-to-one (or occasionally in small groups) in deep, intense, serious conversation.

In such situations I try to adhere to my ten steps to effective conversations. But often I get so carried away that these conversations tend to go off on wild tangents, exploring a wide terrain in search of especially fertile common ground.

What surprises me, though, is the large number of people who have no interest in ‘serious’ conversation. This crowd includes many intelligent, creative and informed people and at first I thought it was just me — surely such people with imaginative ideas, important knowledge and powerful insights would want to share them with someone. But I’ve come to believe that the large universe of conversationalists (people who love to talk) and the smaller universe of people with something considered and important to say, are two different (and only partially overlapping) groups. To make things worse, even when I manage to find meaningful conversations, the majority of them are theoretical, not actionable, and accordingly, while stimulating, not terribly interesting to me. I am learning to pay better attention, but my attention span is still childishly short.

As I mentioned in Pilgrimage Part Two, I’ve always found it challenging to discover people who care to talk about things I think are important. In every country I’ve visited, in every community in which I’ve lived or spent time (in Second Life, and elesewhere online, as well as in real life) most people seem content to talk about immediate and superficial things — gossip, recent news, sports, weather, entertainment, work, what to eat for their next meal etc. So few people seem to care about what it all means, why we’re here, where we’ve come from, where we’re going, or what we can or should do about it.

I am tempted to chalk this all up to what I see, globally, as three endemic human malaises: (a) imaginative poverty, (b) lack of intellectual curiosity, and (c) anomie:

  • Those who lack imagination can’t conceive of the world being better or different from what it is, so why would they be concerned about changing it?
  • Those who lack intellectual curiosity simply can’t care about what’s happening outside their immediate situation in space and time.
  • Those who can’t or won’t empathize with others’ situation and who think the world is fucked anyway no matter what, will only ever care about finding what pleasure they can, now, no matter what the later consequences.

Perhaps it’s not surprising, then, that places and opportunities for meaningful conversation are so rare — parts of the blogosphere, book clubs, and some universities — and places and opportunities for meaningful, actionable conversation even rarer.

That’s why I’m so obsessed, these days, with finding more powerful, interactive ways to communicate with you, dear online friends, than through the comments thread or e-mail. So if you’re fed up with my lack of response to these clumsy communications media, then IM me (via GMail/GTalk), schedule a voice-to-voice conversation (GTalk Call, orSkype), or meet me in Second Life, and let’s talk.

A friend of mine recently offered me these great ‘lead-ins’ to meaningful conversation:

  • Tell the other person something you’re passionate about, and why. Tell them passionately.
  • Tell them something they should know that they don’t, preferably as a story, and make it clear why it’s important.
  • Tell them about a possibility you’ve imagined. A real possibility, not just an ideal, a wish or a dream.  
  • Tell them a different way of thinking about something, one that sheds new light on what it means. 
  • Don’t argue. Just don’t.
  • In all of the above, make sure what you tell is actionable. But don’t tell them what to do.
  • And above all, keep it short, clear, and simple or entertaining. A conversation is a mutual gift.

Works for me.

Category: Conversation
Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 10 Comments

Ten Signs the US and Canada are Failing States

Belize beach
Last year I reported on Jeff Vail’s analysis of Mˆ©xico as a ‘failing state’. The signs he reported included the presence of independence groups (the Zapatistas) who have just given up on the dysfunctional government, the collapse of key economic resources (agriculture and oil), vast disparity of wealth, cynicism about the purpose of voting and other democratic behaviours, the use of ‘manufactured’ crises and fear to distract the people from government incompetence and impotence, and the growing prominence of organized crime and corruption.

These same signs are prevalent in Belize, and I witnessed them all last week, since an election there is on the horizon. It confirmed my sense that the nation-state has largely outlived its usefulness and is on its last legs everywhere as our unsustainable civilization nears its inevitable collapse. Outside of Europe, which has problems of its own, the balanced-economy model that allows both government and individual enterprise to each do what they do best, seems to have been given up as hopelessly idealistic. And that got me thinking about whether the US and Canada are likely to follow Mˆ©xico quite quickly into disintegration and anarchy as the central authority simply no longer offers enough to the people to warrant its continued support. Here are the ten reasons why this just might happen, and sooner than we think:

  1. Crushing debts and trade deficits: Argentina a few years ago was the latest textbook example of what happens when a country borrows vastly more money than it can ever hope to repay. The US has the largest national debt and largest trade deficit that the world has ever known, and both of these are still growing at an alarming rate. Canada is arguably even less self-sufficient than the US (when bad economic news is reported in the US, the $US rises in value relative to the Canadian dollar, because of Canada’s total trade dependence on the US). Any collapse of the US currency and hence the US economy (rated even by the conservative Davos economists, last week, as the global threat with the highest combination of probability and severity) will be immediately followed by a similar collapse in Canada. It has just been far too easy for Canada to extract and export its raw materials to the US, adding little or no value to the natural wealth we inherited and are now stealing from future generations, destroying our environment in the process.
  2. Poor service: You know your economy is in trouble when:
    • It becomes cheaper to throw things out and replace them than to repair and maintain them
    • It makes sense to sell you car and house and buy a new one because repair costs exceed depreciation
    • Health care reaches the point that the majority resort to alternative medicine and self-care
    • Infant mortality is at third-world levels and the rates of chronic environmentally-caused diseases are soaring past the point of affordability to treat them
    • People expect poor service both before and after they buy a product
    • Public education has declined into a dysfunctional and expensive child care and unemployment deferral system.
  3. Lineups (‘Queues’): Long lines are a symptom of demand greatly outstripping oligopoly-constrained supply, of systems that have grown too large to function, and of production and distribution systems that belie the myth of the ‘efficient market’. Markets work when they respond to public needs affordably. Today’s North American markets increasingly serve only the wants of the rich, and make the rest line up for manufactured scarcity. Choice among poor quality, undifferentiated Tweedledum and Tweedledee products is no choice at all — it’s just oligopoly brand propaganda.
  4. Zero ‘value-added’ production: Almost all of the cost of commercial breakfast cereal is advertising. Most of the cost of ‘brand name’ jeans is the markup that the brand owner applies without doing anything more than licensing the label to the Chinese manufacturer, and hyping the brand. Most of the cost of almost everything now is the exorbitant profit that shareholders and obscenely overpaid executives demand for their oligopoly goods and services, for virtually no value added. Oligopoly power and intellectual property ‘rights’, bought inexpensively from, and enforced by, compliant governments, prevents small and innovative competitors from entering their markets. Nothing of value is done: labour is all expended pushing paper, suing people, and trying to persuade people that products are worth far more than they actually are.
  5. Soaring inequality of wealth: The income disparity (Gini) index in the US, and increasingly in Canada as well, is comparable to that in the world’s most corrupt struggling nations. Such wealth inequality can only be sustained by deliberate and ruthless means — theft, bribery, corruption, cheating, lying, anti-competition conspiracy, relentless propaganda and suppression of dissent. The poor are made to feel guilty and ashamed of their poverty, their illness and their unemployment, when they should be angry
  6. An economy dominated by (in)security: Defense is now the #1 industry in the US (by a huge margin), and is moving up fast in Canada. A sign of a failing state is one that spends more protecting the property, security and interests of the rich than it spends on the health, education and welfare of the mainstream population. In most struggling nations, there is not enough money to do both. In Canada and the US there is, but there is a growing expectation that this will be short-lived. So those that already ‘got theirs’ are obsessed with security, as it becomes increasingly clear that there will soon not be enough of anything to go around, and as the inequality of income and wealth is increasingly seen not as enterprising, but as egregious
  7. Crumbling infrastructure: The soaring cost to repair and replace decaying infrastructure — water and sewer systems, pipelines, utilities, roads, bridges, dikes, communications etc. — has reached trillions of dollars, and governments and corporations have abandoned some of these and are waiting until others reach crisis situations, far beyond their intended useful lives. When the consequences of this negligence — flooded cities, chronic blackouts, poisoned wells, collapsed bridges, exhausted reservoirs, ruptured pipelines — wreak havoc, we are unlikely to have the funds to fix them or the preparations to mitigate their effects.
  8. Spending beyond the means of repayment: North Americans, encouraged by artificially low interest rates, fraudulent credit card promotions, and the ability to charge consumer purchases against their inflated home values, are now spending more than they earn. It’s not enough that none of the externalities — the cost of debt and waste and pollution we are pushing off on poorer nations and future generations — are ‘counted’ in our extravagant spending. Now, even excluding these expenditures, our per capita net worth (other than that of the tiny rich elite), is plummeting. We are staggeringly vulnerable to a drop in housing values, or currency values, or a spike in interest rates or commodity prices. And the entire economy depends on increasing spending by already over-extended citizens.
  9. Hugely unpopular governments and cynicism about the value of government: In healthy nations, the role of governments as regulator in areas where the ‘private’ sector cannot be expected to self-regulate, and as investor in infrastructure and services in areas where corporations lack the motivation or competence to provide it, is appreciated and respected. Successful states have always been those that get the public-private balance right. And while everyone is skeptical about government, it usually only in failed states that that cynicism is so deep that citizens have given up on government’s ability to do anything competently or honestly. We’re moving quickly toward that stage in Canada and the US.
  10. Rampant corruption: The gerrymandering, crfiminally deceptive electioneering, pork-barreling and overt bribery that prevails in the US, and that country’s inability to provide any assurance that its elections are free and fair and reflect the will of the people, are astonishing to us Canadians. But I fear we are not far behind. The ultra-conservative Harper government now governs through US-style propaganda press releases, and will no longer accept questions at press conferences unless there is a pre-scripted ‘talking points’ response for them. Harper, like Bush, believes he knows better than the voters what is good for them, and, to the dismay of many of us, most Canadians seem acquiescent to this arrogant style of government.

The answers are obvious, but probably beyond the political will of our dumbed-down, disenfranchised, propagandized electorates. Like other failed states, we will wait for the collapse to occur before we act, belatedly and inadequately. Our biggest challenge in North America will be that, unlike most struggling nations, we lack the self-sufficiency to live without institutional education, employers, technology, experts to do all the basic things we’ve forgotten or never learned to do, doctors with their drugs,packaged, imported foods, and cheap oil. The Long Emergency is coming, and we’re the least prepared people in the world to cope with it.

Posted in How the World Really Works | 5 Comments

Pilgrimage, Part Two: A Night in the Rainforest

Caves Branch
It’s only 90 minutes in the rickety old Blue Bird school bus (whose drivers navigate the twisting mountainous roads of Belize way too fast) from the impoverished Southern coastal Garifuna village of Hopkins that I described in Part One of this article yesterday, to the daunting entranceway to Caves Branch, in the rugged interior of West Central Belize. The bus drops me off at the edge of the highway, and it’s a mile hike in sweltering 90F heat and occasional torrential rain up the mountain road through stunning tropical rainforest to the ecotourist Caves Branch “jungle lodge” owned by Vancouverite Ian Anderson, who I meet almost as soon as I arrive.

On the trek up, I keep stopping and staring, taking photos of the towering tangle of ferns, vines and immense (100′) trees that extend darkly into the distance on both sides of the road, and create an imposing archway over the dirt and stone road. And I think to myself, breathlessly: I am home. This is where we humans were meant to live. The jungle calls me, inviting me in. I have no fear of the poisonous snakes and spiders, or the jaguars and other wild cats whose last remaining Earthly refuge is in this country. I haven’t felt this way, this sense of instinctive belonging, about a place I do not live, since I walked through the temperate rainforest in Qualicum BC, and the 300′ redwood forests of the Pacific Northwest.

The other people staying at the lodge are all North Americans — couples in their 50s and 60s, some with kids and inlaws in tow. The cheerful workers, mostly Mayan youngsters, are as culturally different from the Garifuna I’ve been living among for the previous three days, as day is from night. They patiently explain their history, culture, lifestyle, and the nearby archaeological sites, to me and the other curious tourists. They ask no questions of me, about how I live, what I think, or the unimaginable snow-covered country I come from.

I keep looking for good conversation in Belize, but, other than with Joe Bageant, I haven’t found it. The Garifuna, the North American tourists, the Mayan workers, all seem to live in their own narrow, isolated worlds, and are disinterested in the future, in philosophy, in the purpose of life or in any other profound or long-term subject. Their intellectual curiosity is shallow, their imagination dormant.

More than anything in this natural paradise I miss you, dear online friends. This is a staggeringly beautiful land, but to me, except when I imagine you here with me, it’s an intensely lonely one. The night in the rainforest, in my bug- and water-proof but authentic-looking cabana, is delightful. I awake to the cries of the howler monkeys, the macaws, and the driving downpour of a wall of rain so heavy I cannot see through it. The forest smells are so dense and rich I can taste them.

The foolishness of the sense of invulnerability I feel in the rainforest becomes apparent the next day when the inner tube I’m riding down the the river through Belize’s vast rainforest cave system hits the rapids, and I cannot stop from crashing into the riverbank, carving up my arms and spraining two fingers in a spiky stand of bamboo, and losing my only pair of glasses in the process.

One of our young guides has to steer me through the rest of the journey, hooking her feet under my tube and answering my questions about Mayan history and culture as I squint to see at least the nearby sights. I complete the arduous five-hour tour in tow, but I feel humiliated, and worried about the risk of infection and making my way home visually impaired. I decide to cut my trip short, a day early, and book a flightback home. Paradise found, and lost.

Posted in Creative Works | 4 Comments

“Community is Born of Necessity”

Joe Bageant
Joe Bageant, at home in Hopkins, Belize
The above quote is from Joe Bageant’s son. It came up in our recent discussion on Intentional Community versus ‘Accidental’ Community. Community is born of necessity. This one sentence, Joe believed, explained the success of Accidental Communities, and the failure of so many well-considered Intentional Communities.I should have realized this, of course; it’s an affirmation of Pollard’s Law — we do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun. My ancestors, thrown together with strangers in a frontier land two centuries ago under harsh conditions, American ex-pats sharing a common passion (loyalty to the King of England) had no choice but to make their Accidental Community of 13 families work, carving homes out of the frozen wilderness without electric light, electric power or hydrocarbons. Thousands of Canadians can now, like me, trace their ancestry to this community.

Likewise, the Garifuna of Belize, who bailed out of shipwrecked slave ships over three centuries ago, had no choice but to make their Accidental Community work, and its culture remains, improbably and against all odds, prevalent today in much of the country.

Meanwhile, the Intentional Communities of the world have a low success rate and an average population of just eleven people. They are the product, often, of affluent, comfortable people who have selected each other carefully and patiently, and who have a shared passion that most Accidental Communities lack. They are experiments of joy designed to discover what works and what doesn’t, by learning from failure. They never reallysucceed, most of them, perhaps because they don’t have to.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 4 Comments

Pilgrimage, Part One: What Globalization Has Wrought in the World’s Struggling Nations, and Why They Put Up With It

Hopkins Belize
One of the benefits of blogging is the opportunity to make friends all over the world who invite you to stay with them if you ever visit their country.

Not only is this economical, it’s a wonderful way to discover how other people really live their lives, and to learn and experience their ‘stories’.

I was privileged to have the opportunity, on only a couple of days’ notice, and on impulse, to spend last week visiting Belize, the home of essayist, journalist and storyteller extraordinaire Joe Bageant, author of the moving and brilliantly satirical Deer Hunting with Jesus.

Joe has largely walked away from civilization (a lovely home in Virginia) and now lives much of the year in a tiny cottage by the Caribbean Sea in the village of Hopkins. Whatever he earns from his writing he shares with the Garifuna family on which his cottage, and the 600 s.f. cottage where his hosts, Len and Marie* and their six children (and three dogs) live. A third cottage (the raised bungalow in the picture above), which Joe helped build and finance, now provides rental income for the family, and an affordable home for a hardworking immigrant family from Guatemala. I bunked in with our hosts in return for paying for groceries for the family during my three day stay (very inexpensive by our standards, a lot by theirs) and a few gifts I bought for the youngsters.

Their home is quite affluent by Belizean standards. They have a small TV, a stereo, and a compact (mostly empty) refrigerator. All the lights in the homes here are compact fluorescents, which gives the place an eerie pale glow at night. Len brings home leftovers for the dogs from the tourist resort where he works. As a result, their dogs are well fed compared to most, a lot of which are strays. (All the dogs seem to be the same medium size and similar black and brown mixed colouring — I guess for evolutionary reasons.) The minute I showed our hosts’ dogs affection, however, they began to push each other away, vying for my attention (it’s not in the culture of the people there to play with or pat their dogs). From that point on they followed me relentlessly, though I never fed them. Just like humans, it seems, relationships and attention and love are more important than any other sustenance. Just like my daughter on her recent trip to Costa Rica, I wanted to adopt and ‘save’ (and neuter) all the dogs I saw in Belize, most of which were emaciated (and some near death).

We in the world’s affluent nations have ruined the Belizean economy. The fisheries that once sustained them have been ruined by overfishing and industrial pollution. So the locally-grown rice and beans, and hand-made tortillas, are the staples on which they live (despite the huge groves of citrus trees, there was not that much local fruit — the citrus is almost all squeezed and concentrated for export). These are supplemented with many expensive, imported, packaged foods. Other than staple foods and wood, as one local citizen I spoke to put it, “everything we buy in this country is imported”. Imports are too expensive for most residents, and most of the packaged imported foods (Coke, candy bars and chips) are the same addictive, empty calories people all over the world are addicted to.

Non-food imported goods are mostly Chinese crap (just like everywhere else). Because of their poor quality, and the fatalism of a people who know that a hurricane could easily destroy everything they own in a heartbeat, there is not much motivation to maintain or repair anything. Global warming will not be kind to Belize, though this danger is almost unknown to its people.

Because of this dysfunctional economy, the country is an enormous irony: Against a backdrop of bountiful provenance and staggering natural beauty (Cousteau has made both their rainforest and their offshore cays internationally famous) almost everything man-made in this country is in disrepair. Construction projects sit unfinished, most wood buildings are sadly weather-beaten and dilapidated, rusty metal scrap is piled by roadsides, plastic garbage blown from everywhere litters the beach and yards (except for those scrupulously maintained by their owners, like our hosts). It is simply too expensive to maintain buildings and infrastructure. Part of the modest tax revenue of the country is misspent, to be sure, but even if it weren’t there wouldn’t be enough.

Just as in affluent nations, the people of Belize work too long and too hard (often at multiple jobs), get exploited by the rich, and do whatever they can, day and night, to make ends meet for their families. They have neither the time nor the money to maintain and repair things. So just as in affluent nations, infrastructure is crumbling — roads, bridges, sewers, water pipes left unfixed and unreplaced long after their intended useful lives. Road and other projects are started just before elections and then abandoned.

We are all, rich and poor, living beyond our means, living unsustainably. While affluent nations borrow more and more to consume more and more, and then throw away more and more, struggling nations borrow more and more (from the usurious IMF) to compensate for what has been stolen from the people by the complicity of greedy affluent corporations and corrupt local officials, to try to provide for their oversized (seven children is average) families. The combination of affluent nations’ overconsumption and struggling nations’ overpopulation is destroying our planet. None of us can hope to repay the debts (to creditors, to future generations, and to nature) we have so recklessly piled up.

The people of Belize (all the different cultures I saw there) are strikingly attractive. They spend more on beauty aids and hair care than on clothes, which seems to me a wise sense of priority. And just like us in affluent nations, they live by Pollard’s Law: They do what they must, then they do what’s easy, and then they do what’s fun. (Or perhaps, being more physically fit than us, they do what’s fun before they do what’s easy.) Like us, they have no time or energy or resources left for what is merely important, for what should be done or would be nice to do.

One of my reasons for visiting was to learn what it is like to live in a real community. With such large families, many of the people of villages like Hopkins are related, and immediate family size (8-10 people) and extended (3-4 generation) family size (40-80 people) are very close to the optimal community sizes I wrote about in my recent post. Poor as they are, these communities appear to be peaceful, loving, happy, and relatively crime-free.

They are not, however, intentional communities, and I had an interesting debate with Joe about whether intentional communities (whose members self-select and agree to be bound by shared principles and ‘intentions’) could ever work as well as these accidental communities bound by simple common ancestry. I continue to believe that intentional communities (hard as they may be to establish and find members for) should ideally work better than struggling nations’ accidental communities. I would acknowledge, however, that both likely work better than the anonymous, transient, accidental communities of affluent nations (suburbs and urban condos), built for the profit of developers and whose members have nothing in common except proximity to workplace. More about accidental vs. intentional communities later this week.

It’s very easy to understand the explosive growth of the cities in struggling nations once you’ve spent a few days with a family who lives in one of them. Once the seven or more children in the family finish school (in their mid teens) they really have no other choice but to migrate to the cities to find work. College is unaffordable for almost all families, and parents are only in their mid-thirties when children reach majority, so there’s no room for them at home or work in their home villages. Only one (usually oldest male) child will likely inherit the family home (and often the father’s livelihood). The rest end up in the cities. The fisheries are in decline, and the farms are mostly run by conglomerates with no need for more labour.

No surprise, then, that cities are rife with desperation, alcoholism, drugs, theft and other crime and chronic, hopeless unemployment. If you’re a young woman, even a good school record is not enough (unless you’re wealthy or land a rare scholarship) to expand your life choices beyond early marriage (and young motherhood) or low-paying domestic work, or both. The same population growth that offers some security in old age, eyes to watch over your possessions, and built-in baby-sitting and role models for younger children, also feeds this cycle of urban explosion and despair.

In Belize, the Internet is the white man’s addiction and the Internet Cafe is the white man’s hangout. To young Belizeans it’s just a vehicle for downloading music. These Cafes are otherworldly not only because of the colour and accents of their denizens, but because these denizens’ average age is at least three times the Belizean average. A few rich Belizeans have cellphones with texting and MP3 players, but most get their music fix from bootleg CDs, radio and dance clubs. Reggae still rules in Belize, though rap and (in the Garifuna South, anyway) local Punta music are also popular. My beloved Soca is “only for the old and the tourists”.

It’s really hard to gauge the influence that religion plays in Belizean life and culture. The Catholic Church runs most of the schools (with some government subsidies) and among parents you’ll find some fervour for spiritualism (among the Garifuna, it seems, it is one’s ancestors, more than god(s), who provide both guidance and punishment for one’s sins). But religion doesn’t seem to be a big factor in family size, belief systems or behaviour.

Why, I kept asking, do young women keep having so many children when birth control is available, accepted and necessary to get out of poverty? Large, unplanned families are, for them, what urban/suburban living is for us affluent nation city dwellers — the only life they know. There are simply no models of a different, more viable, sustainable way to live for them, anymore than there are models of self-sufficient, sustainable, responsible, loving, community-based living for us to follow.

There is much we could learn from them, and much that they could learn from us. But much of our ignorance, our inability to imagine possibilities and conceive of better ways to live, are, it seems, universals. We cannot follow whenthere is no working model to show us where to go and what to do.

Tomorrow: Part Two, and more on Intentional vs. Accidental Community.

* The real names of the family members have been changed to protect their privacy.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 2 Comments

Pilgrimage — A Paradise Found, and Lost

Belize moonlight
I‘m back from a week-long, impulsive trip to Belize (some photos here), where I visited with Joe Bageant, one of the greatest storytellers of our generation, lived with a struggling family in a struggling nation (to learn whether all the ideas I write about on this blog have any kind of universal applicability), walked an ocean beach that has not yet become coveted and secured property, and slept in a tropical rainforest. So stay tuned for:

  • Pilgrimage, Part One: What globalization has wrought in the world’s struggling nations, and why they put up with it
  • Intentional Community versus Accidental Community: The dark side of Pollard’s Law
  • Pilgrimage, Part Two: A night in the rainforest
  • Ten Signs That the US and Canada are Failing States
  • Why So Few People are Interested in Serious Conversation
  • Vagabondage: Searching for Home
  • Making a Blog More Like a Conversation: Why I’ve started reading blogs (those that are true journals, and which relate personal stories) once again

Many thanks to Joe, and to my wonderful, gracious and generous Belizean hosts — the Garifuna family I stayed with in Hopkins and the Mayan youths who worked at the rainforest lodge and told me about theirculture.

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 3 Comments