The Two Biggest Political Issues of the 2010s

right to die poll
Pew Research Poll, US, 2005

(I’m waiting for Jon Husband to OK my publishing of the podcast conversation and transcript I recorded with him last week. It should be up Monday. In the meantime, I’ve been meaning to get the following off my chest:)

What will the two biggest political issues of the 2010s be, worldwide? You might guess global warming (maybe in the 2020s), or oil price spikes or the collapse of the US dollar (they’ll be old news by the 2010s), or even, as I posted yesterday, outrage over wealth and income disparity. But you’d be wrong. My prediction? It all comes down to what touches people personally, and there are two issues that will touch us all personally in the 2010s:

  1. Immigration: This is a visceral emotional issue in every affluent nation on the planet, and it cuts surprisingly across party lines and ideologies. It is a vital means to ease the huge population, resource scarcity and environmental calamities arising in just about every struggling nation in Latin America, Africa and Asia. But the affluent nations will have none of it. Conservatives don’t want it because they see terrorists in every face that doesn’t look like theirs and speak their language (though they like the cheap labour). Labour doesn’t want it because it is perceived to threaten their jobs and wages. Environmentalists don’t want it because ecosystems can’t sustain even the domestic population much longer. Established immigrants don’t want it because they don’t want the competition and fear the backlash will engulf them as well. I don’t see any party, even the socialists, talking about an open immigration policy because they know it’s a political minefield. Parties that take a strong emotional anti-immigration stance, even one that is overtly racist, will do astonishingly well in the 2010s for this reason, and when they get elected they will bar the doors, create a global pressure cooker and produce an upsurge in racist violence at home. Opportunistic extremist politicians won’t be able to resist the temptation to fan the flames. 
  2. The Right to Die: The population in affluent nations is growing older at a rate perhaps unprecedented in history. At the same time, the rate of Alzheimer’s and other mental diseases of the aged is soaring, and an increasing proportion of the population, living ever longer, is living in constant or near-constant pain. And to complete the trifecta, the number of caregivers specialized in treating geriatric patients is actually declining, because it is unprestigious and unprofitable work. So we are going to have more and more people competing for less space and fewer resources in institutions for the aged, and increasingly these people will be suffering from dementias that linger for years, or be addicted for life to narcotic painkillers. Yet those old people who choose to end their own lives, or to assist others to do so, are and will be vilified by religious fanatics and meddling ultraconservative politicians. This issue is not going to go away, and it will, like immigration, polarize the population. It will make the abortion issue of the last half-century look insignificant by comparison. Elections will be won and lost over it.

What makes me believe this? It’s the undercurrents in the news even now. Like the story of the pro-immigration marches in the US last year, theresult of which was a strong increase in across-the-board support for tightening immigration laws, enforcement, amnesty programs and refugee admissions. Like the thinly-veiled xenophobic rhetoric in government pronouncements. Like the recurring stories of domestic murder-suicides that are not crimes of passion, but crimes of compassion. Like the stories of nursing homes becoming increasingly desperate and violent places, even before their coming population explosion.

Weak signals, growing stronger, and poised to overwhelm us, at least politically, in the decade to come.

Category: Our Culture
Posted in How the World Really Works | 6 Comments

Will Increased Income and Wealth Disparity Lead to Generational Class War?

US Income 2
Practitioners of a new statistical discipline called Econophysics have produced the curve above, showing US wealth data plotted logarithmically. They claim the richest 0.1% of the population’s income is described by Pareto’s Law — meaning that if you’re born into that kind of money, you’ll only get richer, no matter what you do. And they claim the poorest 99.9% of the population’s income is explained by Boltzman’s Law — describing random movement of gases in an enclosed area, and meaning that even if you’ve struggled up to the left end of the green curve, you’re far more likely to then get poorer than to make it to the 0.1% elite.

A recent survey in the UK shows that, between 1995 and 2005, the average net wealth of 18-to-24 year-olds remained at zero, that of 25-to-34 year-olds fell from $3000 to $995, and that of 55-to-64 year-olds tripled from $50,000 to $150,000, although their total debts actually rose during that period.

In the US, reports USA Today, all of the increased wealth since 1989 has accrued to those 55 years of age or older. Like in the UK, the big losers have been those who are now 35 to 50. This generation doesn’t look poor — they have as much stuff or more than previous generations at the same age, but their debts are astronomical. They are horrifically vulnerable to an interest rate spike (even a small one like the one that has, along with the US housing crash, created the current credit crisis). The disparity is expected to increase, and accelerate.

At a recent financial executives conference in Toronto, Peter Bernstein, one of the world’s most distinguished economists told the (mostly older) crowd that income and wealth disparity posed the largest single threat to economic security and political stability in affluent nations. The people I spoke to afterwards said they didn’t believe him. I wonder why.

I watched a program a couple of years ago that showed an astonishing correlation — community-to-community, region-to-region, country-to-country — between wealth disparity and violent crime. This is nothing new, as anyone in a country with a high Gini index like Brasil (or, now, the US) can tell you.

I’ve also reported on this blog that the belief that hard work or education is the road to upward economic mobility is a myth. The chart above demonstrates that if you’re born rich, you’re destined to get richer, and if you’re not, well, you’re in for a lifelong struggle with at least a 50% chance of actually ending up poorer for all your efforts.

Put these all together and you have a tinder keg. There are only three things keeping it from blowing:

  1. Ignorance: The majority of people think they’re financially better off than they really are. They don’t realize how vulnerable they are to economic downturn. Just listen to people who have just been laid off, or who realize (and this is the rich, older, boomer generation) that they can’t ever afford to retire.
  2. Shame: The propaganda machine, especially in the US, has convinced most of the poor that their situation is somehow their own fault.
  3. Economic Overextension: The economy is wound up tighter than a drum, with all the dominos propping up each other. It depends on sustaining high ROI on listed stocks, a continuing housing boom, perpetually artificially low interest rates, fuel costs and manufactured goods costs, and the continued and uninterrupted exploitation of labour and natural resources of struggling nations. None of these things is sustainable.

So when the economy unwinds, will the poor overcome their ignorance and shame and rise up in mutiny against the old rich elite that has hoarded 100% of the benefits of economic development for a half-century? Especially since for the most part this elite is also disproportionately responsible for the activities that has created global warming?

It seems unimaginable, doesn’t it? It just isn’t in the psyche of Americans, Canadians, Europeans to rise up in civil war, is it?

Your answer to these questions will depend on how well you have studied, and learned, the lessons of history. I suspect Peter Bernstein’s answers and mine are the same. He stole the show, andall he got was polite applause. What will it take for us to learn?

Posted in How the World Really Works | 6 Comments

Can the Corporation Survive?

corporationMy book on Natural Enterprises proposes a partnership model for new enterprise formation and sustainability. Joel Bakan’s book The Corporation argues that, in their single-minded pursuit of short-term profit at any cost, corporations now behave pathologically (see graphic above), and against the public interest. Is the corporation, as a model, a hopeless case, or can it be reformed or reinvented?There are many who believe corporate charters can and should be rewritten to require the pursuit and balancing of a so-called “triple bottom line” — social and environmental as well as financial performance. Many others think this is naive (there are no established or easy measures or benchmarks of social or environmental performance) and unreasonable when the three bottom lines are in irreconcilable conflict — the company that chooses to emphasize profit over the other two will, in our ‘free’ market, outgrow and hence dominate and even eliminate its more balanced competitors.

Even those who argue that the three bottom lines should, in the long run, coincide, have to concede that in the short term — the horizon of most corporate shareholders and managers — profits always trump social and environmental responsibility.

Corporations were originally invented to allow people to raise money for large ventures. Without the opportunity for substantial return, and limited liability, investors would not advance funds where there was considerable risk. But soon, ownership of ‘shares’ was confused with ownership of the business. Then, thanks to an incompetent legal error, corporations were granted the rights of ‘persons’ — the right to sue, to lobby, and to otherwise use the collective wealth of the company to influence legal, political, economic and social affairs far beyond protecting the security of the original investment. At this point, the sole objective of the corporation became to satisfy the shareholders insatiable demand for higher returns and lower risk on their investment, at any cost to the real ‘owners’ of the enterprise — the employees and the community who granted the corporation the privilege of existence.

The end result — pathological behaviour, a Frankenstein monster out of control of its master. So what can be done? Is the corporation salvageable? If not, how can we revoke corporate charters without precipitating economic chaos?

Bakan proposes stronger regulation and enforcement, greater legal liability for officer and directors, public education, and regulated use of the precautionary principle to govern corporate behaviour. Other corporate reform advocates have proposed, in addition to the above, the elimination of ‘personhood’ rights, moving public well-being activities back from the private to the public sphere, standard global corporate codes of conduct (with severe penalties for breaching them), putting “triple bottom line” objectives into corporate charters, prohibiting dishonest corporate advertising, ending subsidies for large corporations, scrapping or redrafting ‘free’ trade and other corporatist and anti-democratic regulations, and taxing pollution, speculation and other ‘bads’. I’ve personally advocated not allowing corporations to own other corporations, restricting the number of corporations any one person can beneficially control to one, and putting a size cap on corporations.

David Korten, author of When Corporations Rule the World, is one of the speakers at next month’s Future of the Corporation conference in Boston. The conference is proposing the redesign of corporations according to six principles:

  1. The purpose of the corporation is to harness private interests to serve the public interest.
  2. Corporations shall accrue fair returns for shareholders, but not at the expense of the legitimate interests of other stakeholders.
  3. Corporations shall operate sustainably, meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.
  4. Corporations shall distribute their wealth equitably among those who contribute to its creation.
  5. Corporations shall be governed in a manner that is participatory, transparent, ethical, and accountable.
  6. Corporations shall not infringe on the right of natural persons to govern themselves, nor infringe on other universal human rights.

Korten has advocated many of the proposals for corporate reform listed above, and has also stressed the importance of ‘relocalizing’ corporations to focus on the needs of the communities in which they are located.

I’d like to believe this can work, and I’m prepared to listen to him with an open mind. But as I’ve explained before I think the evolution of dysfunctional and psychopathic corporations is a complex phenomenon that arose with the full complicity of the public — it suited our collective purpose to let this happen. I’ve become a skeptic about the possibility of bringing about change by political, legal, educational or economic means or any other ‘imposed’ method. Such impositions and movements have (almost) never brought about significant change. All we can do is adapt to the current state, and work around what doesn’t work (and perhaps never really did).

The dysfunctional model of the corporation will suffer the same fate as every other institution and entity that has ceased to evolve, innovate and serve our collective interests. It will collapse.

We just have to wait it out. And in the meantime, we need to design something new to take its place, something far different from the ‘redesigned’ corporation proposed using the six principles above. I think that model is Natural Enterprise, which achieves the end results of these six principles, and much more, but not because it is told or regulated to do so, but simply because it is, and always has been, the way we weremeant to make a living.

Posted in Working Smarter | 16 Comments

What Makes Us Care About Nature?

Olympic 2
I‘ve written before about how we can’t expect people to care about nature and wilderness, or anything else, unless they’ve experienced it first-hand. We may appreciate things intellectually (global warming, the war in Darfur, poverty, the need for security against violence) but we will not generally fight for them unless we relate to them emotionally, viscerally. We have to experience them. Or do we?

I’ve just been reading a fifteen-page list of environmental education activities taking place in schools across Canada. The objective is to get kids to care about nature, and about global warming, and about ‘the environment’ (as if that were somehow something apart from us) by getting them to experience it first-hand. It’s a long list. Yet while the kids talk a good story (the young are suckers for good propaganda, and the education system is expert at it), and say they would vote Green in an election, as soon as they reach voting age they tend to vote very much like everyone else. The field trips are fun, but the level of awareness of environmental facts and realities is as abysmal among this age group (per my own experience and some recent polls) as any other.

I’ve also been talking a lot with business executives, and come to a remarkable discovery — they care about the environment, and about global warming, but not because they think it has anything to do with the bottom line of the business (and, sorry, they don’t care about the ‘triple bottom line’ — financial + social + environmental performance), but rather because they feel responsible to their children and grandchildren. This seems to be true whether these children or grandchildren are yet of the age when they can chastise their elders for social and environmental irresponsibility, or whether they have if they are old enough to do so. It is instinctive, emotional, visceral. It seems to be true even for those who do not, or not yet, have children. They will acknowledge it is an issue that keeps them awake at night, but also acknowledge they are not (and may never) be prepared to compromise their companies’ profitability to institute socially and environmentally responsible programs. Though they wouldn’t vote against them if they had company.

Canadians, when asked, say that the environment is the most important issue facing the country today. Yet their votes (40%, a record high, for the Kyoto-abrogating Conservative government; recent provincial elections where the Greens ran in every constituency but could muster only as much as 8% of the vote) suggest they consider this a low-priority issue.

A few years ago I was at a weekend retreat with some of the brightest and most creative people in the US. They were almost all very progressive in their thinking (and universally loathed George Bush) but they clearly cared more about immediate personal political and social issues (the Iraq War and its threat to the US economy and security; the large-scale erosion of civil liberties; domestic poverty, the abysmal state of the education and healthcare systems) than about ‘the environment’. They claimed to care about global warming and urban sprawl and pollution and garbage and the destruction of old growth forests, but these were largely intellectual concerns. I got the strong sense that they saw them as failures of technological imagination, innovation, and creeping corporatism, that could be ‘fixed’ through a combination of technology and having a political progressive in the White House. Even An Inconvenient Truth was appreciated as an act of political rectitude and outrage against conservatism more than anything else, and the fact that that show was virtually devoid of any solutions to the problems it pointed out was not considered a serious matter.

So what’s going on here? Most North Americans live in cities, and their idea of nature is a park or a summer cottage on the lake or a camping trip. So nature to them is a tourist destination, like an overgrown theme park, a recreation, or an abstraction. They know about global warming but their spending and voting shows they don’t think it is a priority, or even something they are responsible or empowered to do anything about. They think government and/or technology can fix it, if they are inclined or pressed to do so. Even though everything they are taught shows that this is untrue.

What’s more, most North Americans don’t really want to hear about environmental or social issues or problems. At the end of the day they want to relax, or to escape, and they don’t want to feel guilty about it. So environmental magazines and websites and blogs can’t compete with the political and technological and entertainment ones (and the most popular environmental blogs are of the feel-good ‘new technology will save us’ variety). When it comes to the environment, we mostly want to be reassured that someone else can and will look after the ‘problem’.

All this started me thinking about why I care so much, at such a ‘deeper green’, emotional level, than most people.

I grew up in a small city, on a small lot. I went to the nearby park sometimes, but the park was small and had few trees. In my childhood I didn’t really care about zoos. We had a cat, who I loved, and cried when one day (I was around twelve) he never returned home. I was deathly afraid of large dogs and (for some reason) beetles. We sometimes rented a cottage for two weeks in the summer, but I was more interested in baseball cards and comic books than the beauty of nature.

Yet even at this young age there was something inside me that, I suppose, destined me to care about the natural world. I remember being upset about finding dead birds, and about the devastation that army tent caterpillars did to the neighbourhood trees. I was then (and still am) irrational about cruelty to animals — one of the two fights in my life was with a kid I caught trying to hurt birds with a slingshot, and when adults would make jokes about ‘kicking the dog’ I would walk out, furious. Still, although I started to accompany my father on fishing trips when the locations were remote and gave me the chance to go for walks in the woods (while he fished), it didn’t seem to occur to me that my father’s catch-and-release was cruel recreation.

By the time I was in my late teens I had become a largely uninformed but ardent environmentalist. I fought against boreal forest hydro developments and arctic pipelines, and worked for environmentalist parties and candidates. I recall speaking to a senior minister in the Trudeau cabinet about the damage to caribou migration and the danger of permafrost melt posed by the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline and was told ‘Who cares about the permafrost?’ When I replied that I did, and I didn’t understand why he didn’t, he was hustled away by an aide before he could engage in a fruitless debate. I protested against environmentally destructive development on-campus in university. I wrote to Paul Ehrlich about The Population Bomb asking (already) What can we do?

Then, in the mid-seventies (and my mid-twenties) my environmentalism went into a twenty-year period of dormancy. I have no idea why, except perhaps that it didn’t seem as if my angst was getting me anywhere, and I was tired of being hurt by every new atrocity, local and global, being reported. My membership in Greenpeace and Ontario Nature lapsed.

And then in my mid-forties, in the mid-nineties, I rejoined the movement. No idea what precipitated this, except perhaps more time to think, revulsion and rage over the explosion of factory farms, and the fact that I moved to a house in a wetland area. All of a sudden I just had to walk outside the door to be in another, uncivilized world. In my back yard and the 1200-acre conservation area behind it there was virtually no evidence of other human life. I could watch deer, wolves, foxes, beavers, muskrat, and a plethora of birds sitting in the middle of my yard. Yet I suspect it was my reinvigorated passion for wild places that led me to move here, rather than the other way around. I just discovered my place, my home, the place I was meant to live.

And since then I have read some three hundred books and articles on natural philosophy and human culture, so now my beliefs are informed and modestly better articulated. But I haven’t really changed. I’m still the guy who grew up in the city. What made me care about nature? What makes us (some of us anyway) really care about nature, wilderness, the welfare of wild creatures and wild places, places that, for the most part, we have never been and never seen?

Derrick Jensen, in A Language Older Than Words says:

If someone were to ask me what to do about the problems facing the world today I would say: Listen. If you listen carefully enough you will in time know exactly what to do.

Perhaps that, more than instinct or study or experience, is what makes us love nature. When I was very young I was carefree, a dreamer, and because I didn’t have any interest in the world of adults, perhaps I listened instead to the voices inside and outside me. And then after two decades of deafness, I started to pay attention and listen again, and reconnect in some profoundly emotional and physical and sensual way with all-life-on-Earth. I don’t think it’s emotional sensitivity. I don’t think it’s knowing (what’s happening or what’s right or what’s possible).

My good friends who are preoccupied with political matters and think a Democratic president will make a difference, or who are enamoured of technological solutions to all things, are not stupid or ignorant or insensitive. I find their optimism inspiring. But I sense that, in a very real sense, they live in a different world from me. They can’t hear, feel, sense, instinctively know what I know. And likewise I don’t understand their world, I don’t feel it.

I don’t think this is something that can be taught, to children or anyone else. Probably doesn’t do any harm to try though, I guess. And while the books and articles in my reading list helped me understand what I was listening to, make sense of it, there was a time when I could have read any of these and they wouldn’t have meant a thing to me. As Daniel Quinn says (also talking about the importance of listening) in Beyond Civilization:

People will listen when they’re ready to listen and not before. Probably, once upon a time, you weren’t ready to listen to an idea than now seems to you obvious, even urgent. Let people come to it in their own time.

Yet I think it is in all of us to listen, to hear the voice of all-life-on-Earth, to become a part, to reconnect, to fall under the spell of the sensuous. For twenty years I became deaf to it, it stayed inside me, waiting to re-emerge.

It is in our bones, our DNA. No experience required. We are who we are, and at heart we are all wild creatures, in love with this wild planet and every living thing within it. It is just a matter of time before each of us is ready to listen.Ready to come home.

Category: Let-Self-Change
Posted in Collapse Watch | 5 Comments

Sunday Open Thread – October 14, 2007

ITFads
Survey of frequency of mention of IT-related terms in the literature per study by Ping Wang.It would appear that the decline of KM since this paper was written has followed that of the other terms.

What I’m Thinking of Writing (and Podcasting) About Soon:

Coping With the Strategy Paradox: I met recently with Michael Raynor, who wrote The Strategy Paradox. He’s now looking at what else we can do to deal with this paradox, and he poked some holes in my argument that what we need is resilience, not planning.

The Evolving Role of the Information Professional: Since I listed the five major ‘products’ of my new employer, some people have suggested that this list might define the new role of the information professional in all sorts of organizations.

A Coming Class/Generational War?: Exploding economic disparity, and the widening wealth and opportunity gap between the old and the young, may be sowing the seeds for a class war between the old & wealthy, and the young & poor, that could transcend geographic borders.

Why We Need a Public Persona: The journey to know yourself is the first step towards understanding how the world works and becoming truly yourself, which is necessary before you can make the world a little better. As de Mello said, this journey is mostly about getting rid of the everybody-else stuff that has become attached to us as part of our social conditioning, and getting rid of this stuff is perhaps what ee cummings meant when he said the hardest thing is to be nobody-but-yourself when the world is relentlessly trying to make you everybody-else. From birth, we pick up all this everybody-else stuff that clings to us and changes us, muddies us. We are rewarded by society for doing so. I find the ‘figments of reality’ thesis helpful in this hard work — realizing that our minds are nothing more than problem-detection systems evolved by the organs of our bodies for their purposes, not ‘ours’. That ‘we’ are, each ‘one’ of us, a collective, a complicity. What makes it so hard is that becoming nobody-but-yourself opens you up to accusations of being anti-social, weird, self-preoccupied, arrogant etc. So we end up, I think, having to adopt a public persona that is, to some extent, not genuine, not ‘us’ at all. That’s hard. How can we make this public persona as thin and transparent as possible?

The Water Crisis: The disappearance of fresh water is likely to be the first wave of the future cascading crises of global warming. Ironically, the second wave is likely to be floods.

Vignette #6

Blog-Hosted Conversation #2: This week (a bit delayed, sorry) I’ll be publishing my narrated, edited interview of Jon Husband, which I recorded earlier this week, on hierarchy, community and education, and recording a third interview.

Possible Open Thread Question:

We know people judge us by appearances. To what extent, do you think, does the way we make ourselves appear affect our own sense of identity, our ability to be nobody-but-ourself? If we looked and behaved exactly the way we wanted and felt, what would  happen to us? Is our illusory ‘right’ to dress and appear the way we want to, part of the way societykeeps us from being who we really are?

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

Saturday Links for the Week — October 13, 2007

Global Warming Canada
From the ‘picture’s worth a thousand words department’: This pretty well says it all.

Charge It To My Kids: I rarely agree with Flat Earth Friedman, but he’s right in his outrage over Bush’s (and our) growing propensity to buy, use and spend more, and collect, demand and give back less, and how that betrays our responsibility to future generations.

Closed Minds in Open Space: From Chris Corrigan, how the education system makes us behave badly in self-managed learning and collaboration activities like Open Space. Jon Husband points out that ‘education’ comes from the Latin words meaning to lead out (of ignorance, the darkness etc.) Podcast with Jon coming up early next week.

Burma Regime’s Brutality Coming to Light: Despite the crackdown on the media and Internet in Burma (Myanmar), word is getting out on the atrocities committed by the police and military against the pro-democracy protesters recently.

Buy Radiohead, Sell Facebook: Umair Haque explains the importance of Radiohead’s ‘pay what you want’ new CD release, and Om Malik discusses the sudden decline of Facebook. Umair thinks Facebook is doomed like MySpace, and I think he’s right.

Thought for the Week: from Wendell Berry via Dave Smith’s Briarpatch Network: Seventeen Rules for a Sustainable Community:

  1. Always ask of any proposed change or innovation: What will this do to our community? How will this affect our common wealth?
  2. Always include local nature – the land, the water, the air, the native creatures – within the membership of the community.
  3. Always ask how local needs might be supplied from local sources, including the mutual help of neighbours.
  4. Always supply local needs first (and only then think of exporting products – first to nearby cities, then to others).
  5. Understand the ultimate unsoundness of the industrial doctrine of ’Äòlabour saving’Äô if that implies poor work, unemployment, or any kind of pollution or contamination.
  6. Develop properly scaled value-adding industries for local products to ensure that the community does not become merely a colony of national or global economy.
  7. Develop small-scale industries and businesses to support the local farm and/or forest economy.
  8. Strive to supply as much of the community’Äôs own energy as possible.
  9. Strive to increase earnings (in whatever form) within the community for as long as possible before they are paid out.
  10. Make sure that money paid into the local economy circulates within the community and decrease expenditures outside the community.
  11. Make the community able to invest in itself by maintaining its properties, keeping itself clean (without dirtying some other place), caring for its old people, and teaching its children.
  12. See that the old and young take care of one another. The young must learn from the old, not necessarily, and not always in school. There must be no institutionalised childcare and no homes for the aged. The community knows and remembers itself by the association of old and young.
  13. Account for costs now conventionally hidden or externalised. Whenever possible, these must be debited against monetary income.
  14. Look into the possible uses of local currency, community-funded loan programmes, systems of barter, and the like.
  15. Always be aware of the economic value of neighbourly acts. In our time, the costs of living are greatly increased by the loss of neighbourhood, which leaves people to face their calamities alone.
  16. A rural community should always be acquainted and interconnected with community-minded people in nearby towns and cities.
  17. A sustainable rural economy will depend on urban consumers loyal to local products. Therefore, we are talking about an economy that will alwaysbe more cooperative than competitive.
Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

Second Life as a Platform for Virtual Meetings and Distance Learning Programs

Second Life 2
Next month I’m participating in a ‘fireside chat’ on the future of education with a group of leading thinkers on the subject from around the world — in Second Life. We’ll all be there, represented by our avatars, sitting on a beach in this virtual world, warming ourselves by the bonfire, stretching our legs, having a drink, going for a walk among the palms, and chatting both in our real voices and by a displayed IM thread. The chat will be broadcast to others who don’t have avatars (so they can’t be present ‘in person’), and it will be recorded as a vlogcast.

Setting up my avatar, pictured above, was easy — you start by picking from a dozen ‘stock’ avatars. But it doesn’t take long to learn that you can no more keep the appearance you first entered Second Life with than you can keep the appearance you first entered real life with. It just isn’t done. You have to reinvent yourself, change your body, your skin, your hair, your clothes, learn some new moves.

Second Life is very much like real life — but not for the reasons you might imagine. It’s like real life in these ways:

  • There are clear codes of conduct that vary by culture, and these codes are mostly unwritten, and must be learned.
  • Unless you’re a master at computer scripts, you’re pretty helpless when it comes to making anything for yourself. You have to buy everything from others, or pick it up from the popular ‘free’ malls in Second Life.
  • It’s a fun place to hang out with friends and people you know.
  • It’s really lonely if you hang out there alone. There are a lot of lonely people wandering through Second Life.
  • Many of the people you meet are trying to sell you something, including sex.
  • It’s a complex social environment. There is more going on than you can ever know. Life there is unpredictable.
  • Most people judge most other people by appearance and first impression.
  • Most people are very serious, and quite a few seem quite desperate. Even the dance floors seem rather joyless places.
  • There are a lot of ego games being played. It is, despite appearances, a fiercely competitive place. This is entirely unnecessary but it is so. We may adopt new personas with our avatars, but we bring our neuroses and other emotional baggage with us.
  • When someone turns on their mike and speaks with their ‘real’ voice, it can really break the spell. Reality intrudes on one’s imaginings. No surprise that most people in Second Life communicate only with the IM/chat.
  • There is a discouraging amount of reproducing in Second Life exactly what exists and happens in real life. Given the imaginative potential of this world, this is ghastly to behold. 
  • There is the potential of ‘stalking’ in Second Life. It’s kind of dumb, because there are so many other characters there you can get infatuated with instead, but it’s possible, easy to do, and next to consequence free.
  • You learn by making mistakes, not by reading manuals. This is embarrassing, sometimes even humiliating. Some people will be kind when this happens. Some will be cruel. Most will be indifferent.

In some ways, Second Life is ‘better’ than real life. Therein lies its seductive appeal:

  • There are no physically ugly places there. Some places are surreal, mindbending like a good trip (in both senses of the word trip), provocative, stimulating, relaxing.
  • There are no physically ugly people there. Everyone is beautiful, even those who adopt grotesque appearances and costumes. Almost everyone is young, healthy and well-endowed. You need no food or water, or to consume anything to thrive. Everyone lives forever. (Some people may think this is not a good thing.)
  • You can buy weapons, but, from what I can tell, you can’t hurt or kill anyone with them, so they are pretty rare. 
  • Everyone can fly and teleport anywhere else instantly. There are no carbon emissions in Second Life, no pollution, no waste.
  • With some limitations (some severe, others not) you can do some interesting social simulations in Second Life and repeat them over and over, learning each time. You could, for example, create an intentional community, and experiment with real people ‘living’ in it to discover compatibility, learn to create consensus etc. Some aspects of Second Life are much like an idealized Gift/Generosity Economy, which is intriguing to study. You can live quite comfortably, free, or you can spend a small fortune if you want to.
  • You can record anything you want in Second Life, relive it over and over, and erase it whenever you like.

In some ways, Second Life is inferior to real life. These can ‘get’ to you quite quickly:

  • As superficially beautiful as the many created environments in Second Life are, they are strangely flat, two-dimensional. They lack the drama of real-life natural beauty.
  • There are no realistic wild creatures in Second Life. You can choose an animal as your avatar, but you just can’t behave like an animal, and the creatures ‘programmed’ to do things over and over in Second Life are mechanical, and therefore depressing. It’s a wilderness in there, but not in a good way.
  • The visual and aural effects in Second Life are very clever, and because so many people have been involved in their creation they rarely get boring. But they are all two-dimensional, not immersive, and the rest of your senses are not engaged at all. After a while you get a kind of numbness setting in as a result.
  • While it’s a complex social environment (ten million avatars have been created and tens of thousands are online at any time, moving or teleporting from one place to another), it’s not a complex ecological environment. The scenery is lovely but it’s fake. You can’t do ecological simulations there.
  • Voyeurism and exhibitionism are rampant, and tolerated, even encouraged. Staring at others is not a bad way to learn how to operate in Second Life, but it makes you feel uncomfortable, queasy.
  • Your whereabouts can be tracked throughout the vast spaces of Second Life, over time. Big Brother may be watching you. Probably is, in fact.

So what’s the potential here for holding virtual meetings and distance learning sessions in Second Life? I think it’s extraordinary, with a few caveats:

  1. There needs to be a way to require ‘full disclosure’ of your true identity as a condition of participating in serious events like meetings and education sessions. One click on someone’s avatar at a ‘full disclosure’ event and you should be able to see their real photo, age, gender, and highlights of their CV. That context is essential for trust and meaningful sustainable communication.
  2. There needs to be a way to ‘transport’ windows from your computer screen into the Second Life environment. Jumping back and forth from the Second Life view to the desktop videoconferencing or screen-sharing application is just too jarring. It spoils the whole illusion of really being there together.
  3. It would be very helpful (and not just for these applications) to have an nTag-type feature built into Second Life. nTag is a badge that contains magnetic information about your personal interests, skills and experiences, and when you are physically close to someone else who shares these qualities, it lights up and displays what you have in common. This would be relatively easy to add to Second Life, and would be a brilliant addition to it, perhaps even transforming into an important Social Networking tool.
  4. One of the critical advantages of face-to-face learning over distance learning is the ability to demonstrate to students how to do something, and let them practice. This would be much more difficult to do in Second Life, but without it, some face-to-face practice sessions will always be needed, which is a serious constraint. We learn by doing, not just by listening.

Despite these caveats, I’m really excited about the potential of virtual environments like Second Life as meeting and learning tools. I can even imagine having an Open Space event in Second Life, complete with the invitations, the opening forum, the breakout sessions (each recorded automatically), and even, virtually, the exercise of the Law of Two Feet. I wonder if any Open Space experts have thought about this. I betthey have.

Posted in Using Weblogs and Technology | 10 Comments

Natural Education, Natural Enterprise, Natural Community: Creating a Virtuous Cycle

virtuous natural cycle
I‘ve been chatting recently with my European friend lugon, of fluwiki fame, about the recurring frustration many of us have trying to move from ideas to actions. Progressives seem to agree that natural education (unschooling), natural enterprise (making a joyful living doing something important that you love and do well with people you care about), and natural (intentional) communities make sense. But to most they seem to be just an ideal. Why are there so few success stories of these? Can we ever hope to scale them up or replicate them across the globe so that they replace the existing, dysfunctional systems?

I think the reason for the frustration is that the dysfunctional systems, for all their flaws and the immense damage they do to our psyches, our societies and our environment, constitute a vicious cycle, each element reinforcing the others. It’s not sustainable, but it does tend to hold itself together until something gives and it all flies apart. I’ve illustrated this in the red cycle in the chart above.

Our traditional education system teaches learned helplessness, and does not teach us how to make a living for ourselves. It perfectly feeds the industrial business-political-economic system, which wants an excess of cheap, frightened, obedient, dependent labour. As wage slaves we assemble into alienated bedroom communities, where the place we live is dictated by income and proximity to job, not sense of place or kinship with neighbours. These soulless communities are strictly utilitarian, and have no capacity to teach people, so education is closeted in institutions apart from the real world, where the propaganda can be propagated without any dissonance from reality.

This vicious cycle is self-perpetuating, but it is not sustainable. Pathological corporations destroy the environment and disregard human well-being in the relentless pursuit of profit at any cost. Alienated communities engender crime, poverty, disparity, stress, anger, despair and emptiness. The education system is loathed by its inmates, and serves as little more than an expensive incarceration for excess, untrained, and not-yet-obedient labour.

Most of us know, intuitively, emotionally, and (if we have the time and opportunity to become informed) intellectually, that this system is not how we were meant to live, and not an optimal way to live. So we try experiments (the black arrows in the chart above):

  • We try unschooling our children, or ourselves, as Holt and Gatto and Illich and Esteva have espoused. But it’s hard — it takes a huge effort because it’s so uncommon that the ability to learn from each other is not available. We have to do everything ourselves, so the experience lacks the social interaction it should have when it is a collective self-discovery of the world, of how it works, and a collective exploration of ideas to make it better. So we may, reluctantly, give up and go back to the traditional education system.
  • We try to become entrepreneurs, creating sustainable, responsible enterprises, but we can’t find working models to follow — every other entrepreneur has seemingly fallen into the industrial economy traps: the grow-or-die mythology, trying to manage and motivate employees, loss of control, the stress of marketing solutions instead of just researching and responding to unmet needs. The deck is stacked against us, and we can’t find others with the imagination to explore better ways to make a living. So we may, reluctantly, give up and go back to traditional jobs.
  • We try to create intentional communities, but as soon as they larger than a family they seem to self-destruct. People don’t seem to know how to achieve win-win consensus. Zoning authorities block all activities that don’t conform to the single-family residential model. The ideas of personal ownership of property and personal privacy seem so embedded in the culture that anything that compromises them sets us conflict.

The record of all these experiments in living a natural life is poor. Why is this? Is the only life we know the only life we can ever again hope to know?

I think the problem is that we give up too easily. This is understandable — it’s like riding a bicycle for the first time. Until you get up to the speed where movement and stability self-perpetuate, it seems a frustrating and hopeless endeavour.

We need to keep in mind that, as the green cycle in the chart shows, there is a natural economy cycle that self-perpetuates and self-reinforces just as powerfully as today’s dysfunctional vicious industrial economy cycle. We just need to get it moving fast enough. We need to get more experiments going, in tandem, reinforcing each other. If we offer unschooling and we offer entrepreneurship skills and we seek to buy from local natural enterprises and we work to build and network together self-sufficient natural intentional communities that offer an environment for learning in community, all together then will start to see these efforts reinforcing each other and creating a virtuous cycle.

Lugon suggests a three-step process for getting past inertia, for getting this virtuous cycle going fast enough that is keeps going through its own momentum:

  1. Vision: Get a bunch of us together, bunches of bunches of us together, to start imagining how this virtuous cycle could work, perhaps using Open Source, telling stories of this Natural Economy as if it already existed.
  2. First Next Steps: Each of us, personally, can then intend to take the first steps to become part of the realization of this vision, and connecting with others and sharing all of our personal, collective, next steps. one step at a time, like pedaling that tipsy bicycle a little faster, a little faster.
  3. Contagion: We need to get others to believe that the Natural Economy is possible. Starting with those who are not brainwashed, who are informed, who care, who have the capacity to imagine and to intend. And then, as we start to get some working models of the full cycle in motion, spreading the contagion further, the incredible idea that the Only Life We Know is not the only way to live, that there is a better way.

I like it. I’m inspired to dust myself off, shake off the bruises, stop looking at the bicycle I’ve constructed and get back on the damn thing and this time, pedal and keep pedaling and not stop until….hey, it’sgoing by itself!

Posted in Collapse Watch | 7 Comments

How Short-Term Thinking Affects Risk Perception, Investment Decision-Making and the Need for Business Activism

risk 1
B
usinesses are preoccupied with risks. Their managers believe they should be able to mitigate them, or at least be prepared for them. But they don’t understand the nature of complexity, and that complex events that pose risks to organizations cannot be analyzed into cause-and-effect, and cannot be accurately predicted, and therefore cannot be planned for, prevented, controlled or mitigated. The only thing a business can do is be resilient enough to cope with them if and when they occur.

Business managers likewise are preoccupied with the short term. As a result they don’t concern themselves with risks that they perceive as longer-term, or risks whose probability of occurrence they underestimate out of ignorance.

What is a business risk? Something that has a potential negative impact on the organization’s performance or sustainability (its ability to continue to operate and meet its objectives indefinitely). Risk is the product of (a) the probability or frequency of an adverse event occurring and (b) the severity of consequences (financial or otherwise) if it does occur. On the charts in this article, high risks are those in the upper right corner.

Risk management is the awareness, preparedness and mitigation actions an organization takes to minimize the consequences of organizational risks.

The charts above and below each display 30 major types of organizational risk.

  • The top chart (#1) shows these risks as they are perceived by management in the short term — the next five years (based on three recent surveys of business and financial executives).
  • The middle chart (#2) shows these risks in the short term according to my recent research. The four groups of risks in yellow are shifted up and to the right in chart #2 compared to chart #1. In my opinion, managers are significantly underestimating these risks to their organizations.
  • The lower chart (#3) shows these risks over the longer term (the next 20 years) according to my recent research. Six groups of risks are shifted from the upper centre to the upper right in chart #3 compared to chart #2. These six types of risks are all likely to occur inevitably — the question is whether this will happen sooner, or later. 

risk 2
These charts show, in italics, the steps most organizations take to try to prevent, mitigate, plan or prepare for each of these types of risk.

  • Those shown in orange are mitigated risks — management considers their probability to be low but the consequences if they occur to be high. They therefore try to prevent or ‘head off’ such risks.
  • Those shown in green are insured risks — management considers their probability to be high but the consequences if they occur to be low. No point trying to prevent them if they’re almost inevitable, so they try to detect and/or insure against them.
  • Those shown in blue are the risks that keep managers awake at night. They have relatively serious consequences if they occur and a relatively high probability of occurring. They are too expensive to insure and difficult to mitigate, prevent or detect.
  • Those shown in yellow are underestimated risks. The asterisk beside them indicates that management in most organizations does nothing to address these risk, either because they think they are remote (perceived to be in the lower left quadrant) or because they don’t think there is anything they can do to address them.

risk 3
These charts suggest that most managers are ignorant of some significant risks their organizations face. Public health experts tell us a pandemic is a virtual certainty in the next generation, and could occur anytime, and one of the lessons from SARS is that, even if the death and illness toll of a pandemic is modest, its economic cost will be astronomical. And, probably not surprisingly, the charts show that managers think short term, not long term. As long as analysts are focused on the next quarter’s earnings, that is unlikely to change. Long term thinking by management is simply not rewarded.

So if you’re an investor, what should you make of this? My suggestion is that you do your own assessment of risks facing the companies you are thinking of investing in, and then read the Management Discussion and Analysis to see (a) whether what management is doing to address those risks is appropriate, and (b) to the extent there is little management can do, how exposed the company is to risks beyond its control.

And if you’re an activist, how can you use corporate management’s risk preoccupation to bring about social and environmental reform? This is tougher, because you need to discover what most companies don’t disclose: the social and environmentally irresponsible activities they engage in: the pollution and waste their operations produce, their propensity to use outsourcing, offshoring, union-busting and unsafe labour practices to keep costs down, the extent to which they intimidate employees and customers seeking redress for corporate misdeeds, their lobbying activities that are in the company’s interest but against the public interest, and the exploitation of foreign labour and underpriced foreign resources..

Most of these activities, while unethical, are not illegal. What’s worse, because they externalize costs (transfer them from the corporation to others) these actions contribute to the Tragedy of the Commons — and therefore exacerbate many of the external risks on these charts (global warming, energy and water shortages etc.) — risks that then affect everyone on the planet.

Because these activities are not illegal, and many of them increase short-term profits, the activist’s only recourse is to educate the public and embarrass the company into behaving more ethically. They will do this if public outrage reaches the level that the risk of damage to its reputation (one of the risks in blue on these charts) exceeds the financial rewards of unethical behaviour. Many pension funds, government investors and other private equity funds now consider corporate ethics in making investment decisions, and a combination of customer and investor loathing for a corporation’s behaviour can be a powerful market force, and a motivator to a company to clean up its act. As consumers and investors, we have more power to influence corporate activity than we might think. But it’s very difficult and expensive to get compelling, reliable evidence of corporate misdeeds, in an age when the mainstream media have largely given up on investigative reporting, and when giant corporations have deep pockets and armies of lawyers to buy off or threatenwhistleblowers, activists and investigative journalists.

But at least we can know what motivates management thinking, and therefore what we’re up against.

Categories: Consumer Power and Activism
Posted in How the World Really Works | 2 Comments

The Short Shelf Life of Information (and the Long Life of Memes)

US Energy Map
A great example of how to use a graphic to convey a ton of information. It shows all the sources and uses of energy consumed by the US, and how much of it is lost, in a single picture. It’s from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and it’s slide 31 of 50 in this PowerPoint deck by Marty Sereno of UCSD on Peak Oil.Here are six important discoveries I’ve made as a result of fifteen years’ work in so-called ‘Knowledge Management’:

  • Almost none of the ‘just-in-case’ archived content of most corporations gets used at all, and the older it gets the less likely it is to be used
  • Most public Internet sites are used mainly by job-seekers and by students for homework, not by customers or even the general public
  • What is valued is know-who (not know-what) ñ connection not collection
  • What is valued is just-in-time knowledge acquired through context-rich interaction (i.e. conversation)
  • But even most conversations are only valued by their participants, and only until a few days after the conversation has passed (by which time it has either been internalized or forgotten)
  • What is valued is information to which value (meaning, suggested action) has been added through visualization, synthesis and analysis

I don’t think any of these discoveries should come as a surprise to anyone, yet we blithely continue to behave, in most organizations, as if they were not so. The cost and energy that goes into acquiring ‘raw’ information, organizing, presenting at and attending conferences, and populating and maintaining Intranets, public Internet sites, document repositories, groupware etc. is staggering, even though most of this work has little or no value.

What does have value, but only for awhile, are these five types of content:

  1. Conversational content — face-to-face, Open Space, phone, Skype, desktop videoconferencing, IM, blogs, podcasts — mostly of value to the participants in the conversation (who have the necessary context to understand it), and only until they have internalized it (shelf life: maybe a week)
  2. Visualized and otherwise synthesized, filtered and analyzed content — the work of information professionals that (like the example visualization above) tells readers/listeners succinctly either what something means, or what should they do about it (shelf life: maybe a year before it’s obsolete)
  3. Project content — the organized collection of stuff relating to an active project, in wikis, file folders or other places accessible to the full project team (shelf life: the duration of the high-activity stage of the project)
  4. Know-who directories — the (rare) up-to-date lists of who knows what (not to be confused with internal phone directories or organization charts, which are generally valueless unless you are studying how management wishes things worked) (shelf life: as long as they’re relatively complete and current)
  5. Stories — context-rich anecdotes about things that have actually happened, from which we can learn, and which can provoke good ideas to respond to (not to try to change) those realities (this includes cultural anthropology stories — direct observations of and conversations with customers ‘in their native habitat’) (shelf life: as long as the culture that gave rise to the story remains unchanged — usually a long time)

I have excluded technical/learning content from this list because it is so subject-specific; many of us, especially those in entry-level jobs, need technical manuals and regulatory reference materials until we reach the level at which we basically know these cold or depend on subordinates to know them. Procedure and policy manuals, despite the energy that goes into them, are generally ignored or worked around by those who are supposed to use them (usually for good reasons) so I would not include them in the above list. ‘Best practices’, as I and many others have explained elsewhere, are rarely worth the paper they’re written on.

How much of the work of information professionals and ‘knowledge managers’ is actually focused on these five types of information? In my experience, much less than half. And much of that work is spent maintaining these collections way past their shelf life, to the point that they’re no longer valuable, and start to add to the clutter that makes it harder to find the good stuff, and may actually be so obsolete that they’re dangerous.

Most bloggers (and those in other media like radio, TV and print) have figured this out. It’s not just that we have short attention spans that causes us to forget what was printed or broadcast last week — we lose the context, so if it’s important, we need to be re-briefed anew anyway.

This has been a hard lesson for me. I keep a table of contents of my past blog posts by subject (though I confess I’m slow to update it). That’s because I naively think people (beyond just students working on assignments) will actually be inclined to go back and re-read what I wrote a month or a year ago about a subject. For the same reason, I hotlink back to earlier articles, in the hope that this is a ‘shorthand’ way of providing readers with context when I write about a relatively complex subject. Even though when I read others’ blogs I almost never click back or read their tables of contents.

Silly me. My review of the hits on my pages suggests that 95% of the page-reads on my blog are articles less than a week old, and that almost no one clicks the links to my older posts (except the aforementioned students working on assignments). Readers are telling me: Don’t ask me to re-read an old article, tell me, here and now, the gist of that earlier article and why it’s important, and then get on with the new stuff.

So why do I still maintain the table of contents and continue to link back to earlier articles? Because it helps me to organize my own thoughts. This blog is an extension of my personal memory. It’s where I think out loud about what’s important to me. Even my Signature Essays list is a note-to-myself of my best writing, to use when thinking about future writing.

So I get it, dear readers: If my blog blew up tomorrow and the archives were gone, all you care is whether I have my own back-up copy for my own use, so that I can keep writing tomorrow. If you’re a blogger and you think your archives are valuable to anyone but yourself, if you think anyone, even your most faithful reader, cares about what you wrote more than a week ago, think again. Your archives are for your use, not theirs.

In a way this is a relief. It means I need not feel guilty about my table of contents being nine months out of date, except for the fact it is hard for me to research what I may have written on a subject more than a week and less than nine months ago. It means I need not agonize about migrating my blog from the obsolete Radio Userland platform to something newer — I need only migrate my most recent one or two posts on each of the subjects on my table of contents, plus perhaps my Signature Essays, to the new blog platform, and no one will care about the lost threads to the rest (though it might be worth paying to keep the old posts on Radio Userland just to preserve my Google Rank). All the rest of my writings and their table of contents could be kept on a flash drive for my personal reference only.

Do any other bloggers find this discovery — that no one cares what you wrote last week — as sobering as I do? When you click on a Google link and find yourself on on ‘old’ 2005 or 2003 blog post, do you read it or do you automatically back-arrow to find something more current?

This is important, because the same thing applies to 95-99% of what organizations are trying to keep in their content repositories, internal and external websites — what they hopefully call ‘organizational memory’ — no one values it and no one cares.

The consolation in all this resonates with my most important learning from 35 years in business:

The value you bring to an organization is not what you do, what processes and infrastructure and other ‘organizational changes’ you implement, or even what decisions you make. Those things are all transient; they are gone before you know it. The only sustainable value you bring to an organization is what you show and teach and inspire in other people you work with. Because those things are infectious, so that even when you’ve gone, even when the people you knew there have gone, that learning and that important information and those mind-changing ideas that you precipitated will go on and on, passed virally from one person to another. Those viruses are what makes the organizational culture what it is. That is no small thing.

That’s why the so-called ‘leaders’ are no more valuable in any organization than anyone else. We each have the same number of hours to infect others with our knowledge, our passion, our ideas and inspirations. Viruses only spread one-to-one. You can’t do this ‘top-down’. Nothing of value can be ‘cascaded downwards’, no matter what they might tell you in MBA school.

It’s also why businesses established by owner-managers, once the owner-manager leaves, are only worth something if they have been non-hierarchical — if the owner-manager has generously and continuously shared ideas, information and authority to the point the employees left behind have co-created and internalized the culture.

That doesn’t just apply to business. The only sustainable value you bring to any social group of which you are a member is what you show and teach and inspire in others in that group. That’s the value you bring when you write your heart out on your blog. That’s the value you bring when you raise your children, when you spend time in the communities that matter to you, when you stay up all night talking with someone about the things you both care about.

You may never be credited as the originator of a virus. It is enough to know that it lives, on and on, in the minds and hearts and beliefs and actions of thousands or millions of people who have passed it on, mutating and evolving, until it does produce a collective change. It is the only way real change occurs. That is what culture is, and why it is so hard to change it. We all change it, in ways we can only imagine. Your idea could be the flap of the butterfly’s wing that causes a social tsunami on the other side of the world.

That should be enough. Enough to keep you working, blogging, creating, thinking, sharing, conversing, doing what you can to make the world abetter place.

Posted in Using Weblogs and Technology, Working Smarter | 13 Comments