Rain Songs

It’s a chilly, rainy day here in Vancouver, the kind of day that makes you pensive, wistful, melancholy and all those other feelings that are mostly sad, but are also, often, thoughtful and creative. It’s almost as if the rain gets inside you and lubricates the memory, the emotions, and the imagination.

There are a lot of songs about rain, and some of them are pretty corny, pat, or otherwise awful. But I was surprised to find 15 songs in my music library that have “rain” in the title (even excluding ‘songs about rainbows’).

Ten years ago one of my readers, Elselien Epema, visited me and we spent the afternoon in conversation, with my music library playing in the background on ‘random’ mode. Afterwards she remarked to me “Why are all the songs you like so sad?” I was surprised; it had never occurred to me, since it’s a pretty varied and eclectic mix. But I guess she was right. Lots of dance, hard rock and upbeat “world’ music in my playlists, though.

Here are my 12 favourite “rain songs”, and here’s a video playlist of them:

🌧️ See the Sky About to Rain, by Neil Young (solo, live version)

See the sky about to rain, broken clouds and rain.
Locomotive, pull the train, whistle blowing through my brain.
Signals curling on an open plain, rolling down the track again.
Some are bound for happiness, some are bound to glory.
Some are bound to live with less, who can tell your story?

🌧️ Thoughts on a Rainy Afternoon, by Bruce Cockburn

Rain rings trash can bells; and what do you know
My alley becomes a cathedral.
Eyes can be archways to enter or leave by.
Vacuum’s replaced by a crystal.
Oh Jesus don’t let Toronto take my song away.

It’s easy to love if… you let yourself love it.
But like a moth’s wing it’s easily crushed.
Oh Jesus don’t let tomorrow take my love away.

🌧️ Mandolin Rain, by Bruce Hornsby and the Range

Listen to the mandolin rain, listen to the music on the lake,
Ah, listen to my heart break every time she runs away;
Oh, listen to the banjo wind, a sad song drifting low,
Listen to the tears roll down my face as she turns to go.

🌧️ Dreams,  by Fleetwood Mac

Like a heartbeat drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering what you had, and what you lost
Thunder only happens when it’s raining
Players only love you when they’re playing
Women, they will come and they will go
When the rain washes you clean, you’ll know

🌧️ Don’t Always Look at the Rain, by Howard Jones

Some people I know have lost their feel for mystery
They say everything has got to be proved, this isn’t a nursery
And Joseph who’s five years old, stops fights in his playground yard
No more fights and bigotry, oh is it so hard
And it’s oh, don’t always look at the rain

And tell me, is it a crime to have an ideal or two
Evolving takes it’s time, we can’t do it all in one go
Doesn’t have to drive us all mad, we can only do our best
Let the mind shut up, and the heart do the rest

🌧️ The Rain, the Park, and Other Things, by the Cowsills (a capella version)

I saw her sitting in the rain, raindrops falling on her
She didn’t seem to care, she sat there and smiled at me
Then I knew she could make me happy
Flowers in her hair, flowers everywhere
I love the flower girl
Oh I don’t know just why, she simply caught my eye
I love the flower girl
She seemed so sweet and kind, she crept into my mind

🌧️ Red Rain, by Peter Gabriel

Red rain is coming down, red rain
Red rain is pouring down, pouring down all over me
Oh-oh, putting the pressure on much harder now
To return again and again
Red rain, just let the red rain splash you
Red rain, let the rain fall on your skin
Red rain, I come to you, defences down
With the trust of a child

🌧️ Rain, by Patty Griffin

Sometimes a hurt is so deep deep deep
You think that you’re gonna drown
Sometimes all I can do is weep weep weep
With all this rain falling down
Strange how hard it rains now
Rows and rows of big dark clouds
When I’m holding on underneath this shroud

🌧️ Let it Rain, by Amanda Marshall

It isn’t easy to be kind
With all these demons in my mind
I only hope one day I’ll be free
I do my best not to complain
My face is dirty from the strain
I only hope one day I’ll come clean
Rain, let it rain on me
Let it rain, oh let it rain, let it rain on me

🌧️ Rain Song, by Led Zeppelin

I felt the coldness of my winter
I never thought it would ever go
I cursed the gloom that set upon us,
But I know that I love you so

These are the seasons of emotion
And like the wind, they rise and fall
This is the wonder of devotion
I see the torch we all must hold
This is the mystery of the quotient
Upon us all, upon us all, a little rain must fall

🌧️ Fire and Rain, by James Taylor

Won’t you look down upon on me, Jesus
You’ve got to help me to make a stand
You just got to see me through another day
My body’s aching and my time is at hand
And I won’t make it any other way
Oh, I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain
I’ve seen sunny days that I thought would never end
I’ve seen lonely times when I could not find a friend
But I always thought I’d see you again

🌧️ Rainy Night in Georgia, by Brook Benton

How many times I wondered, it still comes out the same
No matter how you look at it or think of it
It’s life and you just got to play the game
Find me a place in a box car
So I take my guitar to pass some time
Late at night when it’s hard to rest
I hold your picture to my chest and I feel fine
But it’s a rainy night in Georgia
Baby, it’s a rainy night in Georgia
Lord, I believe it’s rainin’ all over the world
Feels like it’s rainin’ all over the world.

Yeah, pretty sad, I guess.


image by Midjourney AI, which clearly doesn’t think rain is necessarily associated with sadness; not my prompt

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | Comments Off on Rain Songs

Human Systems Are Almost Always Based On Trust


‘Distrust’ — Midjourney’s imagined conception of the term, based on my own prompt

Without trust, it seems to me, human systems cannot function.

We have to trust that governments and their regulatory agencies (including law enforcement) are effective and not dysfunctionally self-interested or corrupt; if we can’t trust them, we turn to other political structures to give us what we need, even if that’s gangs, mafia, cults, militias, or ‘private’ governments (gated communities etc).

We have to trust economic systems in order to use fiat currencies, to invest and expect to get our money back, to get into debt, and to work expecting fair pay, reasonable benefits, opportunities for ‘advancement’, respect for our employment ‘contract’, a safe and un-traumatizing workplace, and employment stability. Or we won’t participate in the workforce, no matter what hardship that results in.

We have to trust public transportation systems to be reliable and safe, or we’ll opt out and use exclusively private systems.

We have to trust public education systems to be effective, useful, valuable in preparing us for the work world, and safe, or we’ll opt out and use private systems.

We have to trust (and be able to qualify for and afford) public health systems or we’ll use private systems or ‘alternative medicine’ systems (even dicey ones), and refuse public health orders and vaccines.

Without trust, systems fall apart. There’s a name for social organizations that operate with absolute lack of trust, and are hence totally coercive — they’re called prisons. Without trust in public systems, our whole society becomes a prison, fragmented, begrudging, compulsive, propagandized, and utterly dysfunctional.

And yet, we have created a modern civilization that seemingly thrives on and exploits distrust. From false and deceptive advertising and PR, to empty political promises, to political, media and social media fear- and hate-mongering, censorship, propaganda and mis- and disinformation, to conspiracy theories, to dishonest corporations, to education curricula that lie about history to our children, to quacks who sell dangerous health cures and advice, and on and on — sowing distrust, lies, dissatisfaction and doubt is now prevalent in every sector of our societies, and it is hugely profitable. No wonder, then, that our modern culture doesn’t serve anyone, except of course those who are cultivating distrust to destabilize, manipulate and abuse us.

If we don’t trust the system, the only way we will continue to pay fealty to it, rather than walking away from it, is if (i) we are continually coerced to remain within it and to be obedient to it, and (ii) we have been persuaded that there is no better alternative, or no alternative at all.

So what happens next when a society reaches this point? Is there any way back? Can trust be rebuilt?

My sense is that it cannot. Just as when a personal relationship is destroyed when one person betrays the other’s trust so thoroughly that the aggrieved party refuses all further contact with the abuser, so it seems to me that a culture without trust cannot continue for long. Endless coercion quickly becomes unaffordable and unsustainable, and is destined to collapse, and be replaced by a culture where there is some semblance of trust. Mutual trust, I think, is essential to human nature and how we associate, or don’t, with other people.

We are now at the stage where propaganda, censorship, military and police enforcement of ‘law and order’, and oppression of whistle-blowers, counter-propagandists and other ‘disobedient’ people has reached its practicable limits. When most public spending is on military, ‘security’ and other coercive activities at the cost of providing public services, collapse is, I suspect, the inevitable next step.

That could play out in a number of ways: Military or other oppressive dictatorships by powerful minorities determined to hold on to their power. Civil wars and other uprisings. Acts of increasing civil disobedience: massive strikes, refusal to work, refusal to pay taxes, refusal to abide by increasingly restrictive laws even at the cost of repeated arrest and incarceration, hunger strikes, self-immolation, suicide bombs and other forms of suicidal protest. And, more broadly, a widespread social withdrawal from the ‘body public’ — debilitating depression, self-harm, retreat into addictive escapism, and hikikomori-type social reclusion. You can see signs of this already in the plunging rates of participation in the labour force, especially the full-time participation rates.

This is what collapse looks like. We are not going to be able to rebuild trust in our broken systems, which no longer serve most of us at all well. They will fall apart, slowly. Firstly, I think, as we come to realize the unsustainability of the financial and economic systems on which all investment, saving, trade, innovation, technological and business activity is based, our ever-growing distrust of these systems will prevent us from even trying to rescue them as, like dominos, they fall apart — the financial system, the economic system, then the political system,  the health system, the education system, the transportation system, and finally our fragile social systems.

What will be interesting to see is whether, in less individualistic cultures than the prevailing western ones, these systems will hold, or at least fall apart more slowly. The loss of any sense of community, and of responsibility to the larger whole of our society, will likely mean that our western cultures’ systems will be the first to collapse.

The lesson of human history is that when a society’s systems no longer serve the needs and interests of its members, the systems collapse, and the society disbands or fragments. Its members ‘walk away’ from the existing society and systems, and search out or start over to create one that does serve them.

No one can predict what that will look like, or even hazard an intelligent guess. The new societies and systems are likely to be radically relocalized, much smaller, and astonishingly diverse — reflecting the fact that our human needs and interests are diverse. Confederations may well emerge, though attempts to corral local societies into large, homogeneous, centralized, one-size-fits-all societies will likely fail. Once burned, twice shy.

The one thing we can be almost sure of, however, is that these new societies and cultures will be built on trust. Without it, there is probably no hope for them.

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

Health Self-Management: A Process of Intelligent Guesswork

Just a reminder that I am not a health professional and nothing in this post should be construed as health advice. Every body is different.


It’s been a while since I wrote about the process of self-managing one’s health.

I got interested in it after realizing that doctors, especially in today’s anonymous, revolving-door walk-in clinics, can’t possibly hope to know your body well enough to give you a competent diagnosis of what ails you, or what you should do about it, especially in the allotted 10-minute consultation period.

Still, for some reason, most people go to the doctor or hospital completely clueless as to what’s wrong with their health or what some of the treatment alternatives might be. “I’m sick, doctor; heal me!” Intelligent health care is a partnership between health professionals and patients. Like marriage, or business, it usually fails if one of the partners is only intermittently involved.

I started a health self-management program back in the eighties when I first had symptoms of kidney stones. Those were pre-internet days, so research involved reading health compendia, encyclopedias, and making visits to the library. I passed three stones between 1990 and 2004, and most of the advice I got was self-contradictory. That was 20 years ago. I was dealing with bouts of debilitating depression, severe job stress, and chronic back pain in those days. Anti-depressants (no surprise) didn’t work, and left me brain-fogged and exhausted. My weight was a record 170lb. I kept resolving to start exercising, but I just wasn’t up for it. I did become vegetarian, finally, and that seemed to help, but mostly, when it came to my health, physical and psychological, I just felt helpless.

Two years later, just as I was starting to feel better (six months of daily exercise was dramatically improving my mood), I got some terrible financial news (a result of my employer’s incompetence) and went into a tailspin. Horrific anxiety attacks, radical (40lb) weight loss, and then severe rectal bleeding. By then we had the internet, so I knew I had ulcerative colitis. It was confirmed, they did a colonoscopy, and, against my will, the specialist put me on steroids, which made my symptoms much worse and almost killed me. For weeks, I simply wanted to die, and to never wake up, just to end the interminable pain and insomnia.

I resolved to never again be helpless when it came to my health. Based on a weight-loss (!) book by the late Seth Roberts, in which he explained how keeping a rigorous daily journal helped him identify the factors that affected his weight and health, I began to track all the variables that I thought might contribute to my health (physical and psychological), and correlate them to my subjective assessment of my overall (a) physical health, (b) physical fitness level, (c) stress level and (d) overall happiness. I tracked the correlation between each of these variables and the four assessments, and between the four assessments. Seth liked the process I was using and we corresponded a fair bit about it.

I used a rather involved statistical process to try to avoid biasing my assessments. This meant tracking not only all the daily correlations, but also the correlations between, say, some drug or vitamin I was ingesting, and my health and happiness assessments one, three, and seven days later. I also used multivariate regression analysis to try to eliminate coincidental correlations and identify precisely which variables were most contributing (positively or negatively) to my health. Having taken a lot of courses in statistics really helped. Including the fact that those courses taught me when and how to be skeptical of statistical results!

It was, and is (I resume using it whenever my health takes a turn for the worse) a laborious, frustrating, and imprecise process. But the payoff to me has been enormous. It confirmed for me the worse-than-uselessness (in my case) of steroids as a colitis treatment, and the significant effectiveness of specific NSAIDs. Of 36 variables that had been suggested to me as contributors (positive and negative) to my health during my bout with colitis, I found only eight consistent, statistically significant correlations. Over the past 17 years I have had three very minor ‘flare-ups’ of colitis symptoms, all of which were quickly resolved by increasing my NSAID dose. A colonoscopy earlier this year showed that my colon is in remarkably good health, though my gut flora will probably never fully recover from misguided high-dose tetracycline damage that dates back to my childhood.

In the process of tracking this data, I discovered that, according to reputable research organizations, less than half of the ‘supplements’ (other than vitamins) being sold to us for every ailment under the sun actually contain the ingredient on the label unadulterated with other unlisted ingredients and pollutants like mercury, lead, and arsenic. It’s a disgrace that this industry is pretty much completely unregulated, but, hey, we live in an age of deregulation. If you rely on supplements, caveat emptor.

The analysis of the data suggested that stress (and my incapacity to deal properly with it) was the catalyst (ie predicted the onset of, but may not have ’caused’) my colitis, and probably of my depression and anxiety as well. But it also suggested that nothing that I have tried worked effectively to reduce my levels of stress or my stress coping ability. When there has been less stress in my life (like most of the time these days), my physical and psychological health have been good, and vice versa. None of the ‘stress-busters’ I tried — drugs, meditation, therapies etc — helped at all. That’s just how this particular body seems to work. But at least I know.

Because of the caveat I started this post with, I’m not going to list the variables that seem most highly correlated with my recent excellent health. Every body is different, and the point of this post is to encourage people to keep a journal, track the data, and trust the process to point them in the right direction for them.

You can probably guess at some of them, though, again, they’re not for everyone. I’ve been a vegan (balanced, varied, plant-based diet) for a long time now, and I run four miles a day. I take eight vitamins/minerals/maintenance drugs every morning, all of which have been vetted for authenticity and purity. Periodically I sit down and talk through how I’m dealing with stress, and with the doom-scroll etc, with someone I trust. I still get stressed easily, but now I am more aware of the fact that I’m getting (unhealthily) stressed, and that seems to help reduce the intensity and duration of the stress. That’s what works, apparently, for me.

I also get a comprehensive blood ‘panel’ of tests done, twice a year, and can immediately access the test results, and comparatives with previous tests, online through my electronic health record. This gives me an ‘early warning’ of many potential health problems, that I can work on promptly.

Health self-management is not a panacea, of course. I work with my doctor and my physiotherapist. Sometimes, the process doesn’t work at all (four years ago, I developed early signs of Depuytren’s Contracture, for example, and all the rigour in the world trying to find a treatment for it hasn’t helped, though it’s not really problematic and has gotten no worse).

The elements of effective health self-management are, then:

  1. Doing research to identify illness-preventing activities (vitamins, diets, exercises, vaccines etc) that have been shown in rigorous independent scientific studies to reduce the likelihood of health problems for someone of my age and with my genetic background and lifestyle. And pursuing those activities.
  2. Getting periodic non-invasive health assessments, such as blood ‘panels’, to surface possible emerging health problems.
  3. Doing research to self-diagnose health problems as they arise, and then confirming those diagnoses with a health professional.
  4. Identifying possible treatments to address known health problems, and then, using a journal, data collection, and statistical analysis process, assessing which treatments are actually helping, and discussing these with a health professional.

I’ve been very lucky, health-wise, all my life; my genes are good and my lifestyle is, finally, healthy. I feel and look much younger than 72, which I turn next week. Health self-management doesn’t entirely account for that, but it’s surely a factor.

Posted in Creative Works, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 4 Comments

Links of the Month: June 2023


I told Midjourney how I was feeling writing this blog post, and a little bit about what I looked like, and this is how it pictured me.

Over the last few months, two questions keep coming to mind when I read and think about what seems to be going on in the world:

  1. Why do we seem inclined to select/elect/allow the emergence of ‘leaders’ — government, corporate, and social — who are evidently quite dimwitted? They appear to be more informed (and more misinformed), and somewhat more sociopathic, than average citizens, but they also seem really remarkably incapable of critical thinking. Do we get comfort from knowing we’re smarter than the people running things and making key decisions for us? Watch/read any speeches by any of these clowns. How in the world were they ever granted so much power? Figureheads to front the people with the real power who stay behind the scenes? Who put the bozos in charge of driving the bus, and why?
  2. Why is it somehow harder to accept that there’s a quite high, and growing, probability that the human experiment of life on earth will now end in nuclear war, rather than in civilizational collapse caused by the collapse of unsustainable global ecological and economic systems? Why is the thought of the former somehow more unbearable than the latter? If it’s all the inevitable result of eight billion apes conditioning each other and doing our best, it shouldn’t make any difference how it all ends. So why does it?

I have absolutely no answer to these questions.


COLLAPSE WATCH



images from National Geographic via Naked Capitalism; these images show new coastlines once the Arctic and Antarctic melting already baked in to current CO2e levels occurs over the coming decades; this is not a ‘possible’ scenario — it is the minimum change that WILL occur even if we immediately and aggressively strive to reach carbon zero, and will force at least 3B people to move, including all residents of the cities shown

(thanks to Just Collapse and John Whiting for several of these links)

10ºC temperature rise and 60m sea level rise now baked in: James Hansen’s latest study tells the sad tale. We may survive another century or more, but the millennial endgame looks more and more like species (and possibly all-life-on-earth) extinction. Guy is looking prescient.

424ppm Co2 and accelerating: This is the most carbon in the atmosphere in at least three million years, and ‘actions’ to date have not even slowed the increase. This level of pollution correlates to temperatures that are incompatible with human life.

Carbon capture and sequestering is an expensive fraud: Richard Heinberg explains why it has never worked and is never likely to work, and focus on it is wasting precious time and money that could be better spent on other mitigation projects.

Our cities are in their last century: Bill Rees explains why they will have to be abandoned (even those not under water).

And El Niño is just weighing in: And early signs are that it will be a major one, pushing us well past the 1.5ºC mark.

As we get nearer and nearer to economic collapse: Tim Watkins explains: “The authorities are doing two things – managing economic expectations downwards, whilst [falsely] reassuring the public about the viability of a financial system hopelessly mired in debt. They [have allowed] the financial system to be stretched to the breaking-point in the hubristic pursuit of the chimera of infinite growth.”

As El Salvador shows us what happens when economic and ecological collapse leads to political collapse: There’s a very good reason that millions are trying to flee this utterly failed “prison state”.

And still, the humanists and technophiles tell us there’s time: Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin daydream in technicolour about a “just transition”, ignoring the scientific realities.

Time to get real: Instead, Indrajit Samarajiva reminds us that, for the rest of our existence, even bare survival will require sacrifice, something we refuse to countenance. And Michael Dowd explains that climate change is just one small part of the larger driver of extinction, ecological overshoot, and suggests some ways to learn to accept the inevitability of that extinction.

Chris Hedges writes a requiem for our species:Death is hard to digest until the final moments of existence, and even then, many cannot face it. We are composed of the rational and the irrational. In moments of extreme distress we embrace magical thinking. We become the easy prey of con-artists, cult leaders, charlatans and demagogues who tell us what we want to hear.” Until, finally, we stop listening to their ravings, and start to face the truth.


LIVING BETTER


Midjourney’s take on “Deep Conversation”; not my prompt

A call for détente and collaboration with Russia instead of war: Of course, it was written 60 years ago today, and made by JFK, but it’s as pertinent as ever. And alarming that current ‘leaders’ are saying the exact opposite.

Better ways to deliver health care: Holistic community health centres are a proven model whose time has come. And the much-aligned and starved NHS is still one of the world’s best systems.

How central bank digital currencies could wrest economic and financial control back from private bank oligopolies: Yanis Varoufakis explains how we could easily return financial decision-making to the public sphere.

Domestic partners, not professional athletes, are overwhelmingly the main sufferers of concussions: It took a sports star to shine the light on this little-reported atrocity.

Michael J Fox shows the horrors of Parkinsons: The now-reclusive former child star reveals what the disease does even to a young body, and what it takes to cope.

Let’s end the farce of useless competitive performance reviews: Annual performance reviews rating staff ‘on the curve’ are intimidating and counter-productive.

“I mourn the weakness of my attention”: In a lovely ode to a brave and uncelebrated plant, Flatcaps & Fatalism reminds us of our duty to notice what’s important, and the folly of living too much in our own heads.


POLITICS AND ECONOMICS AS USUAL


cartoon by Michael Leunig, of course

Nobody voted for this: Caitlin Johnstone reminds us that our dysfunctional political system has narrowed and subverted our democratic choices to a vote for indistinguishable Tweedles. No truly democratic system would have reduced our choices to Biden/Trump, Trudeau/Poilievre, or Sunak/Starmer. They’re an insult to our intelligence.

The war we’re finally allowed to see: One reporter at the New Yorker has at least temporarily broken ranks and reported factually on the ruined state of Ukraine and its broken ‘army’. We still have to turn to ‘alternative’ sites for news about the utter debacle of the Ukrainian ‘counter-offensive’ that has been a complete suicide mission for Ukraine’s miserable conscripts, and about the despicable Ukrainian/UK-assisted bombing of the Kakhovka dam in the Donbas.

The dumbing of America: Back in 1995, the late Carl Sagan warned of the terrible consequences of a decline in education and critical thinking and an increase in propaganda and censorship in the US.

Corpocracy, Imperialism & Fascism: Short takes (thanks to John Whiting for many of these links):

Propaganda, Censorship, Misinformation and Disinformation: Short takes:


FUN AND INSPIRATION


Midjourney imagines an otter popping up to say hi!; not my prompt

The Lakota Ghost Dancers: A chilling read about a First Nations people culturally destroyed, and then, ironically, slaughtered at Wounded Knee in part for performing a forbidden dance in honour of The (Christian) Rapture.

Dooce finally finds peace: Long-time blogger Heather B Armstrong, aka Dooce, who wrote courageously, vulnerably, and witheringly for years about her battle with depression and addiction, took her own life recently. This was her last post, dedicated to her daughter. Indrajit has written a tribute to her. Unless you’ve suffered from the Noonday Demon, it may be hard to sympathize with her, but I do. She also introduced me to some great music, like the songs of Deep Sea Diver, whose lyrics (and guitar licks) are raw and gut-wrenching. One song goes: “I tried so hard not to let you all down. It’s an impossible weight. So I’ll just let you down now.” Fuck.

Rebecca Watson sets the record straight: My new favourite tilter at windmills has been skewering people who aren’t used to being skewered (or at least not with this kind of rigour):

The complex identity of modern Iran: A fascinating interview and feminist perspective on the history of this multicultural, enduring nation and how it is evolving.

How drones helped track and rescue a lost pet: A modern shaggy dog story.

Those magic major sevenths: Nahre Sol describes why Erik Satie’s Gymnopédie #1 is so haunting.

AI is mostly just pattern recognition: Billmon at Moon of Alabama, who has an educational background in IT, thinks concerns about AI are somewhat overblown, and the real danger is idiot humans misusing it.

The government of Canada has a style manual: How to write (and speak) Canayjun. Fascinating and sometimes unintentionally funny. Their gender-inclusiveness section is especially interesting, reflecting Canadians’ inevitably awkward attempts to make everyone happy. Sorry!

Crosswordese: Wikipedia has a page of those short words you’ll find in even the most finely-crafted crosswords, but never encounter in the real world. Regular cruciverbalists will smile and nod (even though ATM is significantly missing from the list).


THOUGHTS OF THE MONTH


cartoon by John Atkinson

From Aurélien, on our penchant for seeking ‘legal’ revenge on those we don’t like:

[There is inevitably] a tension between the atavistic desire for punishment and revenge, and the concern to erect at least a minimal legal umbrella to make us feel less like characters from Hamlet. But the effect of this tension has been to degrade political speech everywhere. It’s common now to see individuals we don’t like referred to as “war criminals:” a meaningless term that can only be parsed as “people I don’t like and who I would wish to see in front of a court and convicted on some charge or other so I can feel better.” One way or another. Questions like “why is Henry Kissinger not on trial in The Hague?”, much posed recently, are not intended to be taken literally, since five minutes’ Internet search on jurisdiction will provide an answer. The real question is “why does the world not arrange itself to suit my desires for punishment and revenge?” We have a choice, and we can live in the world of Hamlet and Al Capone, or we can live in a law-based world where we have to accept that we can’t always have what we want. But in practice, all of us would actually like to live in both worlds according to circumstances, even if we would be ashamed to admit it.

From Billy Collins in this performance:

MONDAY

The birds are in their trees,
the toast is in the toaster,
and the poets are at their windows.

They are at their windows
in every section of the tangerine of earth–
the Chinese poets looking up at the moon,
the American poets gazing out
at the pink and blue ribbons of sunrise.

The clerks are at their desks,
the miners are down in their mines,
and the poets are looking out their windows
maybe with a cigarette, a cup of tea,
and maybe a flannel shirt or bathrobe is involved.

The proofreaders are playing the ping-pong
game of proofreading,
glancing back and forth from page to page,
the chefs are dicing celery and potatoes,
and the poets are at their windows
because it is their job for which
they are paid nothing every Friday afternoon.

Which window it hardly seems to matter
though many have a favorite,
for there is always something to see–
a bird grasping a thin branch,
the headlight of a taxi rounding a corner,
those two boys in wool caps angling across the street.

The fishermen bob in their boats,
the linemen climb their round poles,
the barbers wait by their mirrors and chairs,
and the poets continue to stare at the cracked birdbath
or a limb knocked down by the wind.

By now, it should go without saying
that what the oven is to the baker
and the berry-stained blouse to the dry cleaner,
so the window is to the poet.

Just think–
before the invention of the window,
the poets would have had to put on a jacket
and a winter hat to go outside
or remain indoors with only a wall to stare at.

And when I say a wall,
I do not mean a wall with striped wallpaper
and a sketch of a sailboat in a frame.

I mean a cold wall of fieldstones,
the wall of the medieval sonnet,
the original woman’s heart of stone,
the stone caught in the throat of her poet-lover.

From Indrajit Samarajiva on how China has wrested leadership from the US and the west in the brokering of peace, in tackling ecological collapse, in most of the sciences and technologies, and many other areas, and the US’s and west’s response has been to threaten them with war for daring to make them look bad:

America simply has no plan for climate collapse, nor can they execute anything anymore. China has a plan and ability, but America just wants to fight them over dumb shit. Meanwhile the rest of the world is caught in between like da fuq? In the middle of catastrophic global heating, you want to start a Cold War? Is that really the priority right now? America should be working with and following Chinese leadership on climate just as they should have followed China’s valiant efforts to fight COVID. Instead — just as with COVID — they’re propagandizing against China, doing nothing, and the whole world burns because they still ‘lead’ us (with a chain, and a club).


Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 3 Comments

What Might Have Been

… in which I explain how Daniel gets it almost completely right.


of course I couldn’t resist asking Midjourney AI to portray Daniel and Nate as Greek philosophers

Daniel Schmachtenberger’s latest video is an epic three-hour chat with ecological economist Nate Hagens, ostensibly about AI, but actually mostly about how AI could exacerbate the metacrisis (aka the polycrisis) — the global economic and ecological collapse that seemingly is now entering its final and most furious and disastrous stage.

The gist of the earlier part of the discussion harks back to their previous conversations about the tragic “Moloch” nature of much human activity — that eight billion people pursuing their narrowly-focused, short-term goals are inevitably, collectively, going to produce outcomes that are not in anyone’s interest, and in fact deleterious to our collective interest. And that our intelligence enabling the achieving of those narrow, short-term goals is terribly out of sync with the wisdom (as Daniel uses that term) that anticipates and sees holistic, collective, long-term objectives and values, and strives to rein in and balance all those narrow, short-term goals to ensure the holistic, collective, long-term objectives and values are met.

That definition of wisdom is what Gaia Theory asserts is unique to the collective organism that is all-life-on-earth. And that wisdom is, according to pessimists like John Gray, inherently lacking in any single species like humans who are, by their very nature and conditioning, “preoccupied with the needs of the moment” (ie the pursuit of narrow, short-term goals).

The discussion in this video is incomplete — a continuation is promised — but Daniel wraps up the conversation with a rather remarkable synthesis of what seems to be his entire take on where civilization stands now. The 83-page transcript of the entire video is available as a PDF (thank you Nate!), but here are a few extracts from Daniel’s conclusion (emphases mine):

Human intelligence, unbound by wisdom, I think it is fair to say, is the cause of the metacrisis… That intelligence has created all the technologies, the industrial tech, the agricultural tech, the digital tech, the nuclear weapons, the energy harvesting, all of it.

It made the system of capitalism, it made the system of communism. Now, that system of intelligence takes corporeal capacities, things that a body could do, and extends and externalizes them the way that a fist can get extended through a hammer, or a grip can get extended through a plier, or an eye can get extended through a microscope or a telescope, or our own metabolism can get extended through an internal combustion engine… extra-corporeally, … not bound by wisdom, and driven by international, multipolar military and other traps, and markets, and narrow short-term goals at the expense of long-term wide values…

AI is not a risk within the metacrisis. It is an accelerant to all of them, employed by the narrow-focus choice-making architectures that are currently driving the metacrisis… And if we make an AI that is fully autonomous, we can’t pull the plug…

If I have something that can optimize so powerfully, what is the right thing to guide that?… [It] is not intelligence. It is wisdom… AI superintelligence shows us just how fucking dangerous narrow optimization is…

If you wanted to make a superintelligence that was aligned with the thriving of all life in perpetuity, the group that was building it would have to have the goal of the thriving of all life in perpetuity, which is not the interest of one nation state relative to others and is not the interest of near-term market dynamics or election dynamics or quarterly profits or a finite set of metrics…

If you have a group that has a goal narrower than the thriving of all life in perpetuity and it is developing increasingly general AIs that will be in service of those narrower goals, they will kill the thriving of all life in perpetuity

If we look at the multipolar traps and the competition dynamics, if we look at who has the resources to build things at scale, if we look at the speed of those curves, it doesn’t look good… Something has to happen that we are not currently obviously on course for, but if enough people, if some people can, stepping back, be able to see, “Oh, the path that we are pursuing that we feel obligated to pursue, our own opportunity focus relative to risk focus, is actually mistaken”… [But] if we do not get the ‘restraint wisdom’ to stop the max race, then yes, these will be the last chapters of humanity. And so then the task becomes How do we do that?…

I want to share something that I think will be helpful in thinking about the wisdom/intelligence relationship, which is not saying how we enact it. The enactment thing is a real tricky thing, but this is just on what we need to enact. If people have not watched the conversations that David Bohm and Krishnamurti had together back in the day, I would recommend them…

What Bohm said is the underlying cause of the problem is a consciousness that perceives parts rather than than perceives wholes or the nature of wholeness. And because it perceives parts, it can think about something as being separate from others. So it can think about benefiting something separate from others and either it can then care about some parts more than others so it’s okay harming the other things (or it just doesn’t even realize it is). … And so I can benefit myself at the expense of somebody else. I can benefit my in-group at the expense of an out-group. I can benefit my species at the expense of nature. I can benefit my current at the expense of my future. I can benefit these metrics at the expense of other metrics we don’t know about. And all of the problems come from that…  [Whereas if] we were perceiving the field of wholeness itself and our goals were coming from there, and then our goal achieving was in service of goals that came from there, that’s what ‘wisdom binding intelligence’ would mean, which is the perception of and the identification with wholeness…

Iain McGilchrist… in The Master and His Emissary, said… there’s a capacity in humans that needs to be the master and another capacity that needs to be the emissary, meaning in service of, and also bound by [the master]… The thing that needs to be the master is that which perceives, not mediated by word symbols, language models, perceives in an immediate way the field of inseparable wholeness

If you look at all the problems in the world and the global metacrisis and the impending catastrophes being the result of the ’emissary’ intelligence function unbound by the ‘master’ wisdom function, then you look at AI [as] taking that part of us already not bound by wisdom and putting it on a completely unbound, recursive exponential curve….

[That means we require] a restructuring of our institutions, our political economies, our civilizational structure, such that the goals that arise from wisdom are what the [intelligence’s] goal achievement is oriented towards. That is the next phase of human history, if there is to be a next phase of human history…

Yet if people are working to make change but they are not actually connected to the kind of wholeness that they need to be in service to, and they continue to have what seem like good goals, but they’re narrow — “We need to get carbon down”, “We need to get the rights of these people up”, “We need to protect democracy”, “We need to get our side elected because the other side is crazy”, “We need to develop the AI to solve this problem” [etc] — anything less than the connectedness with wholeness, anything less, both at the level of care and at the level of calculus, [will not be enough].

Even though you can’t [actually do this], you [need to be] oriented to try with the humility that knows you’ll never do it properly. The humility that knows that you’ll never do it properly is what keeps you from being dangerous from hubris. But the part that really, really wants to try is what has you make progress in the direction of the service of the whole.

As I think about this, I realize I am caught between Daniel’s cautious optimism (“It may not be possible, but we have to try.”) and John Gray’s pessimism (“Homo rapiens is only one of very many species, and not obviously worth preserving. Later or sooner, it will become extinct. When it is gone Earth will recover.”).

I find John’s pessimism too dour, too confident, too stoic and fervid, almost to the point of religiosity. But I find Daniel’s hopefulness both charmingly naive and slightly bewildering. I think his diagnosis of the human condition and our current situation is spot on — the most articulate summarization of the state of the world I have seen or heard anywhere. And I think his prescription — if it were possible — is also valid.

Unfortunately, my understanding of complexity makes me believe it is utterly impossible. “A restructuring of our institutions, our political economies, our civilizational structure”, realigned in service of “the thriving of all life in perpetuity”? Really? What precedent exists for such a sudden and radical transformation, an utter change to the way we eight billion apes do everything in our lives? Daniel’s belief that this is even remotely possible is unfathomable to me. “The enactment thing is a real tricky thing… It doesn’t look good” indeed.

So my take on this fascinating conversation is that, yes, this is what would have to happen to pull us, last minute, out of civilizational collapse and the sixth great extinction. Would have to happen, not will have to happen. What his analysis tells me is not what is possible, but rather, more humbly and more wistfully, what might have been. And I’m incredibly grateful for that.

It wouldn’t have taken much, in fact, for a world like the one that Daniel envisions to have emerged instead of the one we actually live in. Perhaps, as Iain McGilchrist seems to suggest, if humans still had separate bicameral brains, instead of the imaginative, cross-talking, conceptualizing ones that (probably as a spandrel) emerged after we separated from our bonobo and chimp cousins, we would still see and accept the world as holistically as Daniel says we must start to do again. Perhaps, had the cosmic storms of several million years ago not forced us from our natural arboreal tropical homes and required us to learn a radically different and unnatural way to live in hostile environments, we would still be living, in modest numbers, in harmony with the rest of life on earth.

As I’m sure you know by now, I don’t blame our species for our inadvertent folly. And thinking about how it might have been otherwise, how life might have unfolded so differently from the way it so recently has done, as our bewildered rogue species did the only thing it could have done, is, for me, inspiring, fascinating, and even (my new favourite word) solacing. 

Trying to make sense of what has happened, where we stand now, and what our future holds, is most likely a fool’s errand. But trying to appreciate, blamelessly, what might have led us to our current and intractable predicament, and how it might have been otherwise, can, I think, enable us to see the world, and our situation, with compassion, equanimity, tolerance, appreciation, and, perhaps, even joy.

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Illusion of the Separate Self and Free Will, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

Neither Real Nor Unreal

What do you do once you’ve acknowledged that global human civilization is in the final stages of decline into centuries or millennia of massive misery and suffering, possibly leading to the extinction of the species entirely, and along with it the ghastly extinction of billions of other species, perhaps even all life on the planet, as the collateral damage of our entirely unintentional folly?

Everything I have learned from studying human history and culture suggests that we believe what we want to believe, regardless of whether or not those beliefs are in any way supportable or aligned with reality. People believe fervently, unshakeably, in gods, in destiny, in progress, and other absurdities, not because there is any evidence to support those beliefs, but because we want to believe in them. Those ludicrous beliefs help us to cope, and provide meaning and purpose and continuity and structure to our lives, and that is enough.

We humans are not a rational species. We are entirely conditioned by our biology and our culture, and have absolutely no free will or control over anything we do. But we believe we have free will and control over these bodies and their actions. And that is all we need.

So what, I am often asked, do I believe, and how do I know it is anything more sensible or plausible than belief in gods, aliens, reincarnation or any other set of beliefs?

Of course, I have asked myself the same question. I have no patience with the dimwit self-styled philosophers who assert that without belief in our free will and self-control we would quickly descend into nihilism, madness, anarchy, and suicide. We do not have to believe that life needs to have any meaning, purpose, or direction, to enjoy life just for what it offers us. No other species has such a precondition for its functionality and evident happiness — it is enough for them to act according to their conditioning to maximize pleasure and minimize pain, and they seem, for the most part, much happier than the majority of humans.

Our human conditioning seems to be such that we continue to cling to life even when it is unnatural, terrifying, grief-filled and riven by trauma, illness, anger and many kinds of violence. I have often said we are not meant to live this way. Life shouldn’t have to be this hard. Most other creatures would not put up with what we put up with. Most other creatures seem to just be a part of a much greater whole than the body that we humans discern as separate and individual, engaged in an endless struggle with others. If the bodies ‘there’ die, then they die. For them, I think, there is no conscious other, no sense of separation, or of time. There is no need for any of those conceptual things.

For me to say nothing matters, nothing is important seems like a desensitized provocation, a denial of what it ‘means’ to be human, a cruel dismissal, a disengagement. But I would suggest that it is nothing more than a simple observation. Strip away everything that is dubious, non-sensical, incongruous, and then nothing matters, nothing is important  seems to me what is left, what is, for want of a better word, obvious.

Intuitively, this has resonated with me for a long time. My observation of the equanimity of other creatures, the untenability of most human belief systems, and the growing evidence from the sciences that time, space, the self and separation are illusory mental constructs, not real, have left me with this strange sense that nothing really exists, and that everything that seems to be, and to happen, is just an appearance, an arising out of nothing, for no reason or purpose.

This has been seen here during what some have called ‘glimpses’, when there was suddenly, just for a while, no ‘me’, and the weight of the world vanished and the ephemeral, wondrous, insubstantial and meaningless nature of everything was just obvious. To no one.

A few years ago I began to hear about and connect with others who not only had this strange, intuitive, resonating sense that everything we believe about the world and reality is illusory, they asserted that it was, there, ‘now’ always obvious that there was no one and no thing ‘really’ separate or ‘really’ happening, just appearances out of nothing, neither real nor unreal, without meaning or purpose. Listening to them has been my hobby ever since. I nod, and shrug. It’s a useless, unprovable, maddening, but fascinating and consolatory belief. It changes nothing.

Of course, the skeptic in me challenges that as well, especially since I find it so appealing, so seductive, so confirming of my own intermittent intuitions. What if this ‘intuition’ is just what Dave wants to believe, for the same reasons the deists and theists want to believe what they believe? What if it’s just my personal coping mechanism? Given my pessimism about the future of the planet, perhaps I’ve just desperately embraced this ‘radical non-duality’ belief because it is comforting to dismiss the coming massive-scale misery and suffering and failure as something that is not really happening, since there is, I believe, no such thing as real time and hence no future in which this awfulness will ‘really’ occur. And, hence, as there is really ‘no one’ and nothing really happening, no one is to blame, and not only did our seemingly troubled species not intentionally fuck up, we never really did anything at all. Case dismissed; you’re free to go.

Is this just Dave’s very human way of concocting a belief set that lets him and the rest of the species off the hook, since it holds that (i) no one had any choice about what has happened and, even better, (ii) nothing really happened?

But what about those others, speaking at meetings and on videos about this being ‘obvious’ there, that it’s not just something Dave, and others with similar proclivities, invented to help themselves feel better? Well, perhaps they too, all of them, have had some kind of psychic break that has led them to believe this nonsense about nothing being real or really happening. Perhaps we’ve infected each other with this now-well-rehearsed shtick, creating a collective sense of wishful-thinking self-delusion that gets reinforced whenever we talk with each other.

That is, of course, possible. When nothing is real, anything is possible. Especially when you really want to believe something is true. And radical non-duality is incredibly (in both senses of the word), and uniquely elegant. It really is an air-tight, internally-consistent ‘theory of everything’.

It is also possible, though I would think it unlikely, that in the score or less years of life remaining to this (apparent) body, this illusion of self and separation will seemingly ‘fall away’, and cease to afflict this body, and then, what has intermittently been seen ‘here’ as obvious, and wondrous, will be seen as having always been, prosaically, the case. If that were to (apparently) happen, it wouldn’t change anything. No one will notice, least of all ‘me’. This (apparent) body will continue to do what it has been biologically and culturally conditioned for 72 years (apparently) to do.

But there might be some (apparent) after-effects of the loss. There might be a subtle dropping away of the intensity with which this body clings to its beliefs, and its illusions. There might be a gradual easing of many aspects of this body’s brain’s interminable sense-making. And, since this blog presumes to be primarily a chronicling of the collapse of our civilization (and, lately too, the collapse of the sense of self and separation), it would seem likely that without a chronicler ‘left’, and without anything having any meaning or purpose any longer, new content on this blog might well slowly cease. Once the war ends, after all, the war correspondent is out of a job.

I wouldn’t count on it though. Since I’ve become infatuated with radical non-duality, it’s just become another category of this blog, something else to write about, and my writing volume is thus far unabated.

I’m not sure why. None of it matters. But it seems to be in my conditioning to blather on. Lost, scared, and bewildered, though perhaps a little less than before, I keep on doing and saying the same things, for no apparent reason. As Neil Young put it, in my soul song:

Sometimes I ramble on and on
And I repeat myself till all my friends are gone,
Get lost in snow and drown in rain
And never feel the same again.

I remember the ocean from where I came
Just one of millions all the same
But somewhere someone calls my name
I’m a harpoon dodger, and I can’t, and won’t, be chained.

Posted in Illusion of the Separate Self and Free Will | 6 Comments

Creative vs Extractive Economies

In a recent extraordinary essay, the historian blogger Aurélien analyzed the types of activities that make up our economy, and how the pursuit of each type of activity dictates our political priorities.

As the chart above illustrates, there are four classes of economic activities. In boom times, creative and productive activities prevail, the economy is strong, and political regulations, laws and incentives are oriented towards the encouragement of sustainable, value-creating activities.

But when the resources that drive the economy (especially energy) become costly or scarce, and the economy falters or stagnates, economic activity shifts toward unsustainable extractive, rentier and predatory activities, most of which are actually useless, unnecessary, and even value-destroying.

Historically, Aurélien argues, pre-industrial economies were extractive. People mined, cut down trees, hunted and gathered crops, or planted small gardens. This was fine as long as the population remained small enough that the resources extracted had time to self-renew. But as the human population grew, these resources were increasingly depleted. The first victims of this were the large mammals across the world, rendered extinct through overhunting. Now, we are facing shortages of affordable resources of all kinds.

Beginning with the Enclosure Movement in the 18th century, global economies shifted towards value-destroying activities. This began with the dismembering of usury laws, the rise of banks, and the shift of the upper caste from industrialists to rentiers, renting properties to farmers and home-owners, and charging interest on loans, instead of doing anything productive.

Simultaneously, with the availability of currencies to transact new kinds of activities, predatory economic activities soared. Military confiscations and pirates have existed as long as militaries have, of course, but now human societies also had to deal with gangsters extorting payments and tolls, theft of cash, and the requirement to pay bribes to get things done. And the top caste, ever seeking ways to acquire more wealth without having to earn it, established an entire new “professional-managerial” class, exploiting the increasing complexity and unmanageability of the economy by creating do-nothing jobs for themselves and their children — as ‘managers’, lawyers, consultants, auditors, specialized ‘trainers’, lobbyists, and marketers.

None of this activity actually produces anything of value, and most of it merely adds unnecessarily to the cost of products and services, but the top caste were able to persuade legislators that these activities merited the highest professional salaries, and that these activities should actually be included in GDP, rather than subtracted from it.

At one time, just as one example, the music “industry” was about making and playing music, and the proceeds went mostly to the musicians. But then the “industry” was taken over by an oligopoly that intermediated between the musicians and the public, and extracted, in the form of fees, royalties, and markups, almost all of the proceeds, leaving most musicians impoverished. And now, as Aurélien laments, there is more money to be made as an IP lawyer suing musicians for copyright violations, than there is in the creation of music itself.

That’s where we find ourselves today.

Aurélien suggests that the mindset that allows this “arises when society loses faith in the future and in our ability to construct it”.

We have entered a period where politics in the widest sense has become nothing but extractive, and consists essentially of seeking opportunities for personal, professional and financial benefit from the conflict, stagnation and decline of current societies. For we live in a society where, for the first time in several centuries, it seems impossible to seriously imagine a better world for all, or even most.

Once the economy became so perverted towards non-productive activity, it was inevitable that our political system would become likewise perverted to reward such non-productive activity. Aurélien explains:

If you are a Minister in charge of an important function of government, it makes sense for you to starve this function of resources, rather than improving it. Why? Because the worse the system performs, the greater will be the demand by those with money for alternatives. Once a postal service loses a monopoly on certain deliveries for example, an entire field of extraction opens up for lawyers, financiers, advertising agencies, logistic consultants and others to promote the development of private-sector alternatives. Likewise, the more you can inculcate the feeling among the general population that things are getting worse, and services will inevitably decline, the more they will accept this state of affairs, and feel there is no alternative to paying more for worse service.

So: Step 1: Shift the economy, and how it is measured, so you and your top caste colleagues get paid exorbitantly for doing nothing of value. Step 2: Use your wealth and power to bully governments to change government policies and laws to reward extractive, rentier and predatory economic activities above all others, and then to deregulate and cut taxes on profits from such activities. Step 3: Propagandize the public to believe this is “progress” and “the free market at work” and to relentlessly lower their expectations of what both corporations and governments can and should do for them.

Brilliant, no? So what is the poor public servant (included ‘elected’ officials) to do in the face of this hijacking of the economy and polity to serve the interests of the tiny top caste, and to destroy the planet in the process? Aurélien offers some clues:

This is the fundamental logic of extractive politics. Find a problem that is insoluble but sounds bad, and that is often poorly defined and not well understood. Set yourself vague objectives that are impossible to measure, and which in any case depend on people other than you doing the actual work…

Extractive politics works by mobilising money and effort in deliberately Quixotic combats against dragons that cannot be properly defined, much less effectively combated. Indeed, it’s better that the problem should be as vaguely defined as possible, since that gives you the greatest margin of manoeuvre…

Rather, you [can] claim to be fighting dragons such as “racism” or “sexism”, which have the advantage of being entirely subjective phenomena (essentially how people feel about things) with no objective content at all. Since the enemy can never be defined, the battle can never be won, and since the battle can never be won, further funding is always required, days of action must be organised, and an entire vocabulary is incidentally available to destroy your political opponents with charges that cannot be disproved because they are not required to contain any objective facts. From the point of government and institutional funders, this is also a way of looking good, without associating yourself with an initiative that might go wrong. It also usefully draws attention away from much more mundane but much more serious problems that you have neither the capacity nor the will to solve… If you can’t actually solve the problem, you can at least profit from it.

Even if that problem is the looming economic and ecological collapse that this malfeasance has helped produce.

In his conclusion, Aurélien laments:

It doesn’t have to be like that, and indeed it wasn’t, always. There was a time when groups of individuals and states built things, renovated things, organised things, made life better, wiped out diseases, ended poverty, massively reduced child mortality, cleaned up the environment and created and maintained full employment, just to name the most obvious features of the world I grew up in: maybe you did too. And all of this was regarded as normal. But in those days, both government and the governed had Great Expectations. Companies competed to be the first, the best or the dominant, not the most profitable. Innovation was not just about financial shenanigans.

You probably won’t be surprised to hear that I don’t share what I view as Aurélien’s nostalgic view of our past, as much as I appreciate his analysis up to that point. Nor do I share his belief that “we could do [things that would genuinely make lives better] if those who rule us wanted to, or even if sufficiently large groups of people wanted do.”

The shift of our economy, and the resultant cynical shift in our politics, from value-creating to extractive and useless, value-destroying activities was born, I think, from a sense of desperation to believe that ‘progress’ is still desirable and possible if only we keep working hard at it, doing our best.

My analysis is much more mundane than Aurélien’s — I think we have become disconnected from our sense of belonging to the earth and being an integral part of it, and have lost our way. We can’t bear to accept that it is all falling apart, despite all our best efforts, and that the sixth great extinction of life that we have precipitated has probably been inevitable since we evolved large brains that made us too smart for our own good, invented arrowheads, and killed off all the large mammals that ones dominated the planet, a hundred thousand years ago.

We are doing our best, the only thing we can possibly do, and have done so since we first emerged on this lovely, little blue planet. It’s tragic that it has led to this. But it’s been a good show, a lovely ride, and life is still wondrous and astonishing. Idealists and scoundrels all, we should acknowledge that, and tell our children, and make peace with it.

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 1 Comment

What Do We Owe Those Who Can’t Cope With Collapse?


all the images in this post are Midjourney AI’s take on homelessness; none of these is drawn from, or depicts, any real person or actual place, and none of them are my own prompts

Rhyd Wildermuth wrote recently that he sees homelessness, substance addiction, massive-scale incarceration, and mental illness as all being harbingers of “late-stage” social and civilizational collapse. He worked with the victims of these crises for many years, so he knows what he’s talking about.

This predicament reflects the complete failure of our health system to properly address the needs of the ill — those incapable of caring properly for themselves, especially when traditional community/family support systems have vanished in our anonymous, atomized modern societies. That system has never been competent to deal with them — the use of forced institutionalization, lobotomization, and shock treatment has simply been replaced by abandonment, a giving up on even trying to address these people’s needs.

The problem is that the numbers of such people are skyrocketing. A staggering proportion of our young people are no longer in the labour pool because they are simply psychologically incapable of holding down a job. Growing numbers of people suffering from trauma are, in many cases, barely holding on. Aggravating this situation, the extreme inequality of wealth and power has pushed an ever-increasing proportion of the population “under water”, with debts exceeding their assets, and made them either homeless or very close to being so. Paying for health care is simply out of the question.

This is not the “fault” of the health system. Its workers are doing their best, but they are simply overwhelmed, and their “science” is just incapable of addressing the multiplicity of ailments and problems that have incapacitated a growing proportion of our population. The institutions that the ill are sometimes forcefully “committed” to cannot heal them. Arresting them over and over and sending them to prison (a large majority of “inmates” are sufferers of long-term trauma, substance addiction, and/or mental illness) certainly doesn’t help. And abandoning them to the streets, even in those very rare places that don’t harass them, don’t criminalize their behaviour, and offer a reasonably safe supply of drugs that help them numb their pain, is just as bad.

We have run out of alternatives, however, and nothing that we’ve tried has worked. So we’ve given up. As the numbers of our citizens who’ve been rendered socially and economically dysfunctional skyrocket, and as economic collapse worsens, this crisis, Rhyd warns us, is going to get much worse.

A few days ago, I drove (carefully) through Hastings Street and the adjacent streets in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside, on my way to catch a ferry. This was the city’s biggest “tent city” area, that the city’s new right-wing government recently razed in a massive sweep and dislocation of Vancouver’s most vulnerable citizens. Many of the tents have reappeared, and the scenes are not unlike those depicted in this post. Everywhere you see mentally ill street people yelling and screaming, at no one in particular. Everywhere you see people staggering into the street almost getting hit by cars and buses. Everywhere you see people peeing and puking on curb-sides. Everywhere you see people banging their heads against walls, racked by tremors, slumping onto the ground, and sleeping (or otherwise unconscious), uncovered on the sidewalks.

I notice that Google Maps now steers drivers and pedestrians around this area. Whether that’s for people’s safety, or to prevent them having to witness this shameful scene of human misery and mistreatment, I do not know.

A recent NYT article profiled the situation in San Diego. It makes for gruesome and depressing reading, describing life for those on the street as a “daily game of Russian Roulette”.

Yet in Canada, governments at both ends of the political spectrum are back to studying forced institutionalization as the answer, even though this has never been shown to work, and often leads to even greater suffering. I suppose they at least want the problem out of public sight, where they, and we, can pretend it isn’t happening.

And that seems to be what all of the hand-wringing and street sweeps and calls for more police are really about. The top caste doesn’t care — it’s not their gated community homes and chauffeur-guarded limos being broken into by people desperate for their next meal, or their next fix.

The western cult of individuality would have us believe that this accelerating epidemic of illness and its many interwoven predicaments, are somehow the fault of the sick individuals themselves. We are not even close to ready to acknowledge that what I have called Civilization Disease has made us all — all eight billion of our bewildered ape species — mentally ill to one degree or another. We are just not meant to live this way. Those of us who are least capable of coping with this disease are the ones visible on our streets and in the drug poisoning statistics and coroners’ reports — the ones showing us what it might be like for us next as collapse deepens. The ones we don’t want to know, see or hear about.

So what is our collective responsibility to our fellow sufferers? When most of us are struggling ourselves, what do we owe to those who just can’t cope with collapse, and are now living dysfunctional, deprived and dangerously precarious lives?

If every “institutional” solution to chronic mental illness and systemic grinding poverty has utterly failed, when and how do we, those of us not suffering as badly from Civilization Disease, step in to do what we can?

There is, of course, no answer to these questions. That’s why we shrug off responsibility for the predicament to health professionals, social workers, police and prison owners, when the predicament only worsens under their ‘stewardship’. And, worse, we often blame the victims themselves.

When almost everyone is living in a world of increasing stress and precarity, it seems that we tend to devolve to an “every person for themselves” mentality — while the members of the top caste take the proceeds of their oligopolies, inheritances, and tax cuts, abandon ship and head for their fenced bunkers in Hawai’i and New Zealand to wait out the storm.

So that’s apparently the default for our declining human civilization — those who cannot cope, and who don’t have personal support groups to carry them, will simply be abandoned, left in greater and greater numbers to die from poisoned drugs, street violence, malnutrition, exposure, or suicide, as collapse deepens.

I’m sure this is not what we want our civilization’s epitaph to be, even if there is no one left to read it — that we left our most vulnerable and helpless fellow humans to die because we were too busy looking after our own survival needs.

But this is where it looks like we are headed. Again, this is no one’s fault. We are all doing our best. We are conditioned, biologically and culturally, to look out for, and care for each other in times of abundance (just like these little guys), and, in times of extreme stress, scarcity and precarity, to hoard for ourselves, or to withdraw and die, to leave enough for the tribe’s survivors (also just like any other mammal). This is how nature restores balance when gentler methods fail. (Most creatures, deeply connected to their local ecosystems, instinctively regulate their own birth rates to prevent overpopulation and resource exhaustion; rarely do they face the predicament Civilization Disease has led our disconnected species to.)

Dmitry Orlov, in his books on collapse, tells us that while economic, ecological, and political collapse may be inevitable, and such collapses are hugely challenging, collapse can be manageable provided the situation doesn’t further deteriorate to the point of social collapse.

But it’s hard to see, from here, how we are going to be able to prevent such social collapse once our economic system collapses and takes down our political systems with it, especially when ecological collapse is guaranteed to make our situation much worse.

Still, there is something in me that instinctively believes we are going to rise to the occasion as things start to fall apart. We will only survive at all if and when we rediscover how to create and sustain real community. We have forgotten how to do this, but it’s been relearned before, as many stories of hardship, kindness and empathy during past depressions and wars attest. And I’ve seen with my own eyes communities that still work, where everyone looks after everyone else.

It may be a long way down, and a ghastly struggle for a while, with more suffering and death than we might have hoped. But my sense is that the survivors (a lot fewer than eight billion) will rediscover and rebuild communities, and they will re-engender the essential skills, the compassion, and the connection we will need to provide a foundation for post-collapse societies.

Hopefully, they will be societies immune to the ravages of Civilization Disease.

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 4 Comments

Uncultured

This is #18 in a series of month-end reflections on the state of the world, and other things that come to mind, as I walk and hike in my local community. 


image by Midjourney; not my prompt

This body that I presume to inhabit likes to eat outside. So this month, it’s taking me to cafés with outside dining. I’ve volunteered to do some recycling work (mostly sorting bottles and cans to be shipped to recyclers) for a non-profit on Bowen Island, where I lived for twelve years.

So I board the SkyTrain from my new home in Coquitlam, in the NE corner of greater Vancouver, to make the long but quite comfortable trek to Bowen, in the NW corner of the metropolis. A trek between two places with very different cultures. At least, that’s what I’d always thought.

I’m fascinated by human cultures, and especially by what seems an almost zealous willingness of many people to stereotype and differentiate other cultures from our own. Perhaps we identify our culture by how it differs from others’. So I’ve tried to learn about what it’s like to live in faraway countries with ostensibly very different cultures, ideally by talking to people from those countries, but also from articles and stories written by natives and ex-pats. What I’ve found most interesting lately have been YouTube videos by people talking about and showing us their home towns and how they live. Like this one showing life in Tehran, and Elina Bakunova’s videos about her home country Russia, and the day-in-the-life videos by Daniel Dumbrill taken across China. These posts are neither sponsored by state propaganda agencies, nor by anti-government hate-mongers seeking a pretext for war. The picture they paint is a balanced one, of lives that have the same ordinary modern ups and downs we pretty much all deal with. Their lives are so much like ours in so many ways. Why do we keep forgetting that?

As I board the ferry, I recall a time several years ago in downtown Vancouver, when I was looking for a place to get something copied or faxed, and was directed to a place that was down a flight of stairs from street level. I found myself in a completely different world — a role-playing/gaming room (I later learned it was a PC Bang) jammed full of big screens and fast-CPU computers, with all of the signage in Korean, and a concession that served only Korean foods. One floor above were expensive, exclusive Robson Street shops with almost entirely Anglo-European customers and staff.

From that experience, I had derived this perception of supposedly multicultural Vancouver as actually being a collection of unconnected bubbles, ‘communities’ using the same public infrastructure but living almost entirely separate lives. The great diversity of Vancouver’s people, it seemed, was visible, but their actual cultures were not.

So now I look around the Bowen Island ferry and all I see, as usual on that ferry, are white faces, after I’ve just come from my new home community where fully half of the population is what in Canada are called “visible minorities”. (In the case of Coquitlam, they are largely Chinese-, Korean-, and Iranian-Canadians, based on how they self-identify on their census forms and the principal language they speak at home.)

Back when I lived on Bowen, I became the principal researcher and author of an award-winning Arts & Cultural Plan for the island. In it, we tried to capture the essence of the island’s culture in this wordle:

A search for beauty, community, and sanctuary were the words we heard most often when we interviewed Bowen Islanders about “our” culture. And culturally homogeneous.

Yet, as I walk off the ferry, it dawns on me that the islanders I lived among for twelve years were not, and are not, a particularly happy lot. Studies repeatedly show there is a high level of substance abuse, mental health problems, and financial anxiety on the island, and Bowen’s social media (and café conversations) reveal a high level of distrust of ‘mainlanders’, of governments of all stripes, and internally among the residents, who are often angrily politically divided and prone to internecine scapegoating and public humiliation. (You know, all the stuff that social media excels at.)

These are, I think, people with reluctantly hardened hearts. That’s what happens, perhaps, when you keep moving west in search of a better way to live, or a better community to live in, and finally run out of places further west to go, but never really find what you were looking for.

As much as islanders talk of community, and band together in opposition to things they oppose (‘developed’ parks, taxes, logging, growth, camping, off-road vehicles, regulations of any kind, and ‘excessive’ tourists, notably), there is nothing cohesive that really makes them a community. Perhaps that’s why, when I had to leave, it was logistically challenging but not at all heart-breaking.

In the Cultural Plan, we defined culture as a community’s shared beliefs, behaviours and aspirations (and we defined arts as the expressions of that culture). But what does it mean if you have neither a real, cohesive community nor an identifiable, connecting, healthy culture? Can you even have one without the other?

These are the questions I think about as I walk up from the ferry to the recycling depot. On the way up, three people I hadn’t seen in years recognize me, call me over to their cars by name, and offer me a ride to my destination (even though two of them are actually headed in the opposite direction). This is what a community does, right?

Well, maybe. In our very brief conversations before they drive on, they all tell me about some local issue (the ferries, the proposed campground, tourists) they are unhappy about. What kind of community is only held together by what they are collectively opposed to? How durable is a culture that is relentlessly critical and endlessly aspirational, rather than celebratory, joyful and grateful?

That’s not to criticize the fine people of Bowen, of which I counted myself one, and expected to remain for the rest of my life. We are the result of our conditioning, and, perhaps as a result of that, the nature of many Bowen Islanders I met was very often dissatisfied, quick to assign blame, and hoping for a better future but not very optimistic about it. I can relate — I was the same for most of my life. I suspect this is probably a defence mechanism after (in my case, anyway) decades of disappointment and failure to meet other people’s often-unreasonable expectations. But it is not a terribly endearing human quality, and not a very solid cement with which to build culture and community.

At any rate, during my recycling shift I am regaled with anecdotes about the continuing turnover of Bowen residents, and about the many people I know who have recently left or are planning to leave, most of them involuntarily (there are no affordable rental accommodations, and few rentals available at any price).

After my shift, I get a ride down to the ferry terminal, and settle in at a local café to await some friends I’d arranged to meet with. As I wait, two women with white canes navigate their way to the next table. I am struck by their joy and wit as they talk with each other. One of the women is talking on the phone, and relates to the caller that she’s only been blind for a month as a result of complications from “otherwise-successful” heart surgery. She’s laughing and cursing like a sailor and making jokes about her situation. Her friend is giggling, and flirting with the server. In five minutes I hear enough good material to launch a comedy series.

After my meetup with friends, I make my way back to the ferry.

When I am back to Coquitlam I go to another café. Here, I see and hear a lot of different cultures. I hear Farsi, Korean and Mandarin being spoken at different tables, but the conversations don’t intersect. At the few tables where more than one ethnicity is evident, they are speaking in English, and I smile at how much louder the English conversations are than those in other languages. These cultures all have cafés, markets, and similar public meeting spaces as essential elements of their social lives, but this café is an amalgam of cultures, not a mixing pot.

And although these “hyphenated-Canadian” cultures are very different, they have one very endearing quality in common, and that is politeness almost to a fault. They greet strangers unfailingly in elevators, say “excuse me” and “thank you” and “I’m sorry” even more than most Canadians, and they smile and meet your gaze when they pass. This is done, by all but the youngest, as a simple act of respect and accommodation. It seems a conscious act, a learned and practiced behaviour. Formal, perhaps, but not just as a formality.

At least, I think it is. As I sit in the café people-watching, I realize I know almost nothing about any of these “hyphenated” cultures, which I appreciate are modestly different from the non-expat cultures, which have a different context, a different set of milieux, and different neighbouring cultures, all of which inevitably affect behaviours, beliefs and aspirations. Iranian-Canadian culture, I think, is inevitably neither Iranian nor Canadian, but something distinct and apart from either.

If I were to try to create a wordle for any of these cultures, I wouldn’t even know where to start. On the one hand, Coquitlam prides itself on being clean, modern, safe, and welcoming to an extraordinary number of new residents. On the other hand, social life here is largely determined by traditions, language, and food preferences, and so it is somewhat insular and family-based, more than in many places. And the daily commute of so many means that Coquitlam is very much a “bedroom community”, so there is less time for discovering your neighbours and involving yourself in community activities.

Having said that, I am aware of some similarities among them, which are not in themselves remarkable but quite distinct from Anglo-American cultures. For a start, invitations to visit someone’s home are evidently serious matters, where the host will often offer a fairly lavish set of options for food and drink, even if it’s just an invitation to tea. Secondly, it is apparently normal for guests to bring a small gift for the host as thanks for the invitation. And thirdly, dressing up seems to be an important aspect of just about every social activity, even a visit to the mall or grocery store. I feel seriously under-dressed in the café, now that I’ve noticed this.

The excessive and skyrocketing cost of housing (both owned and rented) means that many of Coquitlam’s residents are living in smaller apartments increasingly farther-out. It is not unusual for me to see, from my ‘terrace in the sky’, parents in nearby buildings putting multiple kids to bed in what are clearly one-bedroom apartments. We do what we have to do.

Combined with that, I often hear that many “new Canadians” have come here expecting to contribute to the growth and success of Canada’s professional, technical and managerial sectors, only to find out that their qualifications are not recognized here. So we have the tragic paradox of a shortage of skilled workers in medicine, engineering and other fields, while many highly-qualified immigrants are stuck doing menial jobs.

On the ferry, then the bus and then the SkyTrain, I watch the changing profile of faces entering and leaving. I wonder at the accommodation, the patience, and the equanimity of the people in my new neighbourhood — it must be very stressful and frustrating dealing with the discrimination, the work bureaucracy, the lack of affordable homes, and the cultural ambiguity and unfamiliarity of their new community. And the vast majority of them are very highly educated, well travelled and knowledgeable about the world, comfortable in multiple languages, and were highly-respected in their former communities. Yet I almost never see or even hear acts of anger, violence, or despair. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s not there.

And this makes me realize that despite my curiosity I still know next to nothing about these cultures, about these people, my neighbours. I have been in the homes of new Canadians since moving here exactly twice. And when I look in the faces of so many, I have no idea what they’re thinking and feeling, or even how I would start to find out. I am especially curious about the feelings of the school-kids, both new immigrants and second-generation Canadians.

So I do the usual online searches — statistical data, personal anecdotes, blog stories, films, even AI queries. I learn that Iranians come to Canada for business opportunities, personal security, political reasons, and to offer better opportunities for their children. They fly back to visit Iran often, but rarely return there permanently.

By contrast, Koreans come to Canada because of Korea’s very high levels of financial inequality and unemployment, and they fly back to Korea less frequently, but once they’ve retired, often return to live out their lives in Korea, even when that means leaving the now-adult children they brought over or raised here in Canada.

Still, I’m impatient to learn more, and finally hit on the idea of looking for videos about the inter-cultural dating scene, hoping I can glean something about new Coquitlamites, and perhaps especially about how our young people from various cultures feel living here.

I hit paydirt with a series of six videos that, unexpectedly, feature fun ‘dates’ between a young Korean singer and vlogger, and a young Iranian actress/model who has moved to Korea to get more work. (Part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.) The videos are falling-down funny and charming and they’re a gorgeous couple, so they’re great for unwinding, as well as getting something of a sense for what it’s like to be a young Korean or Iranian. And just like when I watched the videos about life in Iran, Russia and China, I came away with the overwhelming sense that, at least in today’s generation, those cultures have become as atomized and culturally disrupted and homogenized as Anglo-American cultures. This series could in fact have been portraying a young dating couple just about anywhere on the planet. Same preferences. Same objectives in a date. Same beliefs and behaviours and aspirations. Same culture? Or no culture?

Does that mean the whole idea of diverse cultures, and the whole idea of true community, has been or is being lost? In future, will our idea of cultural affinity and connection be nothing more powerful than what sports team we root for? What is left of a society that has no communities, just individuals, like inert atoms that never combine into molecules, never become more than the sum of their separate parts? Is such a society ‘cultureless’?

.     .     .     .     .

Back at home, I’m up on the roof watching the newly-fledged young crows testing their wings. They’re learning to ride the air currents between the apartment towers, and clearly having a blast doing it. Two of them in particular seem to be mimicking the seagulls, flying un-crow-like distances without flapping their wings, as if daring each other to see who can glide the furthest. One of them, comically, lifts one wing too soon, and does what is clearly an unintended barrel-roll in midair, before righting itself and soaring gorgeously around the building opposite mine and then dipping under and rising up above and ahead of the other crow. They’re as fun to watch as the dating couple videos. But a very different culture.

Or maybe not. I recall on the return ferry seeing one tween-ager goading another to steal six packets of sugar from the ferry cafeteria without being caught. (This is an ongoing battle on the ferry. At one point all the condiments were removed from the area and customers had to ask the cashier for them.) Is this the analogue of the young crows’ bravado?

I kinda hope not. If it is, it’s a big come-down from the fire-jumping at the Iranian festival of Nowruz. And even from the Korean PC Bang Internet Cafés with their dazzling competitions. Yeah, I know, “Kids these days…” Totally conditioned. Just like us.

.     .     .     .     .

There are “one world” idealists who believe social homogenization and the obliteration of separate cultures will reduce divisiveness, competitiveness, xenophobia, and wars. I think that’s a neoliberal fantasy. Diversity, I think, is essential to learning and understanding how the world works, and also essential to innovation, resilience and even identity. Magic happens at intersections.

Much of the world seems to have lost, or perhaps never had, a true sense of community. If we also lose our cultures, how will we cope with the looming economic, political, ecological and social collapse our world is now facing?

If we have nothing in common with our fellow humans except our inescapable predicament, what exactly are we left with?

This body seems to be trying to persuade me that I think too much, and pay attention too little. It wants me to just watch, and wonder, and stop asking what it all means, and what ‘should’ be done. It’s probably right. It’s telling me to close the computer and go outside in the sun. There’s a new little café just a block away…

Posted in Collapse Watch, Creative Works, Month-End Reflections, Our Culture / Ourselves | 4 Comments

Who’s In Charge Here?


Midjourney’s take on a woman meditating; not my prompt; caption is an old meme

My view of human nature, I confess, is rather cynical and jaundiced. While I believe we’re all doing our best, I also believe that we are possessed of absolutely no free will, that we are totally a product of our biological and cultural conditioning, and that we are ruled by our emotions.

It took me 60 years to realize that everything I believed about myself — my character, my strengths and weaknesses etc — was just a story, a fiction, self-invented to make me presentable, acceptable, or desirable to mates, friends, parents, colleagues, employers, and myself. And that this ‘me’ was nothing more or less than a hallucination imagined by a lost, scared, bewildered ape trying to make sense of a world that makes less and less sense, in the mistaken belief that the other apes actually knew what was going on and what ‘should’ be done about it.

I still express lots of outrage at hurtful and destructive human behaviour, even though I ‘know’ we’re at the mercy of our conditioning and emotions, and cannot do otherwise. A lifetime’s conditioning is hard to break.

So when I look at political commentary, I recognize that, like ‘expertise’ in all the other half-baked ‘social’ ‘sciences’, it is mostly merely egotistical spouting of  largely-unsupported or transparently biased beliefs, and not much worth paying attention to. But I also see a world sliding into economic collapse, ecological collapse (much broader than just climate collapse), and now political collapse, with clearly sociopathic ‘leaders’ pushing us closer and closer to nuclear armageddon. I mean ‘sociopathic’ in the medical sense of seriously mentally ill; the Hugh MacLeod sense.

None of this ‘makes sense’ of course. We are all doing our best, the only thing our conditioning, honed over millions of years, can lead us to do. Nobody actually wants the planet to be annihilated by nukes or made unliveable by ecological collapse or made unbearable by universal grinding poverty, deprivation and suffering.

And it’s not just the sheer complexity of these polycrises that makes us helpless to change course and prevent or even mitigate them. We are not, after all, a bee-like or Borg-like species with a hive mind capable of massive-scale coordinated action, even if we could agree on a course of action, which we cannot.

What makes us helpless is that it is simply not in our ape nature to be able to understand what is happening. Our nature is to live in small tribes in the trees and cooperate and collaborate on immediate, short-term projects where what is needed is obvious even without language, and to pay attention to each other to meet those needs. And (thanks to our conditioning) that attention is especially focused on the eldest (who generally have the most experience) and the most generous (whose accomplishments have most enabled them to share and give to those less accomplished).

But now, we have succumbed to what I have called Civilization Disease, an endemic mental illness born of millennia of disconnection from the natural world, extreme stress, scarcity, and trauma. So now we have a society of multiple, hierarchical castes which compete viciously, war constantly, and share nothing unless allegiance, money, or some other political or economic tithe is granted in return. We are a gravely sick species, for all our good intentions.

I am often tempted to shrug and say that, since it cannot last much longer, and cannot be ‘fixed’, there’s not much point in trying to make sense of it all. One cannot possibly make sense of a crazed mass of terrified rats stuffed into an alien, resource-poor cage with not enough to go around. The hoarding, the murder, the suicide, the fear-driven paralysis, and the eating of the young — this grossly unnatural behaviour does not and cannot make sense.

But since I’m here for a while, there seems no harm in trying to figure out What Were We Thinking?

This is particularly hard to do these days because the most knowledgeable people we once looked to help us with their insights and experience, to make sense of what is happening, seem particularly afflicted by Civilization Disease, and now exhibit a kind of intellectual laziness that comes, I suppose, from a mix of lack of critical thinking practice, and sheer exhaustion at the overwhelming task of trying to make sense of anything. So the media these days are filled with rumours, dubious anecdotes, mis- and disinformation, propaganda, and unsupported opinions, designed to appeal to those already convinced, and to stir up those who disagree (both of which, of course, are good for the media’s ‘business’).

It’s just too easy to conjure up straw men, evil/insane “bad guys”, or simplistic or vague abstract phenomena like “apathy”, “lack of good morals” or “modernity” as the cause of most or all of our troubles. Fascists have always done this, and many progressives are now following suit. I prefer to actually try to figure out what is behind our current political malaise (without laying blame), and how it differs in different places. Lots of people think that’s nihilistic, since it looks to understand without any hope of “fixing” the problems, which are in any case actually predicaments, and which are insoluble. Perhaps it is nihilistic, but I am drawn to try to do it anyway.

I think this analysis by the French political analyst Aurélien does a pretty good job of identifying our current crises throughout the ‘west’, and that, interestingly, includes what is happening in Russia.

The thesis, I think, is that:

  1. Recently, governance and policy-making that once reflected, at least to a certain extent, the popular will, has been replaced by a small self-obsessed oligarchy of the rich and powerful (think of the alpha rats in the cage). This has seemingly happened in the US, in most European states, and in Russia.
  2. Many of us have been pressed into supporting this oligarchy out of fear that fascist authoritarianism is the only alternative to it. Since the media are totally controlled by the oligarchy, this has been a very effective sell.
  3. Any viable alternative to both oligarchy and fascism must offers three things: (i) a sense of shared purpose, (ii) a vision of what their alternative political system would look like, and (iii) the organizing resources to implement this replacement system. Absent such an alternative, political collapse is likely to result in anarchy. Anarchy has not historically been a stable or peaceful state, despite what the naive, idealistic libertarians would have us believe. In the absence of a functioning government, people will accept governance from whatever ‘authority’ offers them relative security, even if that’s a drug gang, a mafia, or a fanatical religious group.

My sense is that the ruling Tweedledum-Tweedledee oligarchy in the US is currently obsessed with crushing China mainly because China offers a fourth political alternative to (i) the existing oligarchy, (ii) fascist authoritarianism à la Trump/DeSantis, and (iii) anarchy. That is, naturally, terrifying to the western oligarchs.  Why? Because given the bald choice between the four, there’s not much doubt in my mind what most people would choose. Once they realize there is a choice.

Power, of course, is never ceded easily or willingly, and the writing is on the wall for the oligarchs, who are relics of the age of kings, and will never be able to whitewash their image enough, or distract from their self-preoccupation enough, to ever appeal to the majority of citizens, who are increasingly disgruntled with them. Divide and conquer can work for a while, but eventually the outrage will be focused on the oligarchs instead of on each other.

We are a long way, of course, from overthrowing our western oligarchies. But when things get bad enough, a working political model that twins relatively democratic local governance with an unelected central authority that is at least ideologically egalitarian and not beholden to obscenely wealthy kings or oligarchs, may start to look pretty good to a lot of people. Just speculation, of course.

That’s the model, hard as it may be to those of us constantly barraged with racist war-mongering propaganda to believe, that China offers. It’s flawed, but far more functional than our run-amok unregulated extreme capitalism. Talk to people who actually live in China, and you’ll discover that most are pretty damned happy with their government, at least compared to how we feel about our governments. And the Chinese people are smart, educated, internationally networked, and more politically and economically informed than your average westerner.

So, back to the current reality: Who’s actually driving political activities in the west? That’s not to say there is some ‘elite’ in total control. (There isn’t, anywhere.) What I mean is: Who is making key decisions, such as the decision whether to go to war, or how trillions of tax dollars are spent, or what laws and regulations are in force, and enforced.

Who are the Tweedles, exactly, the oligarchs making these decisions in the US, other anglophone countries, and Europe, including Russia and Ukraine? Have they effectively seized power and assumed most people are too dumb to realize it, or too bewildered and distracted to care?

Aurélien uses the term the “political-managerial (top) caste”. Occupy called them “the 1%”. Eisenhower called them the military-industrial complex, and warned us about their potential undemocratic power. Some economists like Michael Hudson distinguish the top industrial caste (“Main St”) from the top financier/rentier caste (“Wall St”), depending on whether their wealth is in productive assets or financial/paper assets. Dominating (through their disproportionate wealth and power) all the mainstream parties in all western ‘democracies’, the Main St and Wall St Tweedles exist in an uneasy alliance against a western populace that is angry at how this top caste has hoarded all net new wealth created in the past four decades, exhausted essential natural resources, deliberately suppressed dissent through propaganda, and disproportionally destroyed the planet’s life-supporting environment in the process.

What exactly are they thinking, other than to protect and preserve their own wealth in the face of multiple collapses that they are informed enough to know are ongoing and inevitable, and to save their own skins when the top caste is finally overthrown?

How can we possibly explain, for example, how senior advisors to presidents, making critical political decisions on their behalf, can behave the way Henry Kissinger behaved in 1970, orchestrating the bloody overthrow of the elected government of Chile? And the way Victoria Nuland behaved in 2014, orchestrating the bloody overthrow of the elected government of Ukraine. And, in both cases, steadfastly supporting the horrific, corrupt administrations they put in place to replace them?

Ideological hatred may, of course, be part of it. Wars and other atrocities leave lasting scars that are easy to rip open again. But the two individuals above have never shown any remorse for what they’ve done, and have been employed and promoted by administrations of both parties. Every other US president and UK PM dating back to Reagan and Thatcher has knowingly committed war crimes and other inhuman acts. And all of these people seem not only unrepentant but immensely proud of their (IMO anyway) horrific behaviour and decisions.

If it’s not just racism, ethnic hatred, and/or perverse extreme ideology, what drives this behaviour? I suspect, having witnessed and studied lesser crimes and misbehaviour by business leaders, that much of it is conditioned by peers in the narrow circles in which these people have spent their lives. Just as slave-owners fed off each other’s racism, conspiracy theorists feed off other credulous members of their groups, cult members feed off ever-more-extreme beliefs and behaviours of other members, military and police fanatics feed off colleagues’ us-against-them fanaticism, and supporters of fascism feed off the zealotry of other supporters, so too do members of the top caste Tweedles feed off each other’s beliefs in the righteousness of their beliefs and actions.

We want to belong, we want respect and reassurance, we want to be part of an esteemed ‘in’ group. For many, fame is a salve against childhood trauma, parental or peer abuse, or isolation and broken self-esteem — even when the resultant behaviours are abhorrent, criminal, and destructive.

Spend time in any subculture insulated from diverse ways of thinking, and conditioned for groupthink, and you’ll quickly see the kind of perverse and unapologetic behaviour you see in Kissinger, Nuland, and many of the current members of the cloistered top caste in government, in big business, and in public and private institutions, including the military and security apparatus. It’s sociopathy, promoted, rewarded, and exemplified. This is what happens when a society suffering from serious collective mental derangement gives almost unlimited power to a privileged few in the top caste, often its most sociopathic members. They think they’re doing the right thing, and that they were chosen on merit to do it. Given the rewards they keep receiving for their sociopathy, how could they think otherwise?

This sociopathy may well lead to nuclear armageddon in the next few years. If it doesn’t then it is already leading to inevitable economic, political and ecological collapse. This is the consequence of eight billion apes doing their angry, bewildered, mildly deranged best for themselves and those they care for.

Those best intentions will change nothing, other than perhaps the grief and desperation that will be felt as the failure of those intentions to prevent collapse becomes more and more obvious.

My guess is that we will soon see what many outside our western propaganda bubble have already seen — that if we want to make the world a better place, we first have to depose the top caste capitalist ideological oligarchs — the Tweedles — of their power and wealth, and redistribute it to where it can at least alleviate the worst effects of collapse. And in floundering around in search of a better political system, we will eventually try, by a strange consensus of common sense, an ersatz blend of Scandinavian socialism and China’s ‘local democracy under guiding autocracy’. Both systems have worked in the countries where they were born, but it will take a mix of them to adapt to the political realities and exigencies of the rest of the world.

If we’re lucky, then, we can face full-on collapse with some measure of collaboration and without our hands tied behind our backs.

That may help, but it won’t change the end game. Even if we can avert political devolution into global oligarchy, corpocratic fascism, or anarchy, we will still find ourselves in a strange new world that we are utterly unable to cope with — one with a collapsed economy, unable to sustain any advanced technology as essential energy and resources become depleted and unaffordable, and then with ecological collapse.

There is a taste of the latter in the latest paper from James Hansen’s consortium. (Thanks to justcollapse.org for the link.) It now predicts that, even if we keep greenhouse gas emissions at current levels, we have now already baked in 8ºC of global warming, at a pace of 1ºC of rise at least every 30 years for the next two centuries. The same scenario predicts one impact of that eventuality to be the melting of 3/4 of total polar glaciation, and a 60m rise in average sea levels. The report barely raised a peep in the media, because it’s just unfathomable (if you’ll pardon the grim pun), to them and to the population at large. Take a look at your city or country on Flood Map to see what such an increase will (not ‘would’, will) mean to the place you call home by two centuries from now. Sooner if emissions continue to rise, which they show every sign of doing.

This will be happening at the same time two billion humans (and many other species) will be migrating long distances to find new places still habitable. And we’ll be doing all this without the benefit of cheap energy and cheap technology (each $70 barrel of oil currently substitutes for about 10,000 hours of human labour), and without the internet.

We are a curious species. We think we know what’s going on. We think we know what needs to be done. We think (some of us) that we’re the right ones for the job. You know, crushing the Russian and Chinese states without provoking nuclear war. Solving climate collapse through geoengineering, nuclear fusion, and solar panels. Believing that the market is the perfect arbiter and distributor of value, and that growth can continue forever, as long as we’re smart about it.

If only we knew.

 

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 4 Comments