how to save the world

• Experience-Based Decision Making: It seems an obvious choice, until you understand why the alternatives hold sway.
• Finding & Working With Others to Save the World: Ways to enable billions to sync with us, on their own terms, in their own context, developing their own plan of action, and then to connect and collaborate in powerful ways, in experiments and in creating and refining working models in their own self-selected communities, so that they no longer need the systems that are destroying our world.
• Intentional Community: Related to the above, how a stewardship model might come into effect, evolving to replace the ownership model.
• MRSA and Prion Diseases: A greater threat than Poultry Flu?
• What’s Holding Us Back: Our modern society’s three-way tension between falling into the Centre, progressing to the Edge, and just giving up.
• Finding Our Way Home: How can we hope to find it when we don’t know where it is, or whether it even any longer exists?
• The Mainstream Media Model: Ignore and under-report every issue until it reaches a threshold of public attention despite that under-reporting, and then hype the hell out of it, using absurdly oversimplified dichotomies, until the public gets tired of it.

What I’m thinking about:

My health, again. I’m working through my first flare-up of colitis since I was first diagnosed last summer. This time it does not appear to have been triggered by stress (my stress level is lower than it has been in a long time), and there have been no significant changes to my diet, exercise regime, medication or anything else. So I’m perplexed. Whatunknown environmental poisons are confusing my immune system?

How about you?

What intrigues me is that these studies only involve games of chance ñ poker, bingo, casino games and lotteries. But the most serious gamblers I’ve met make a living (or pretend to do so) gambling ñ day traders, stock brokers, currency and commodity speculators, developers and real estate speculators, even eBay vendors who work full time just buying and selling stuff they don’t produce. For some reason there is no stigma associated with such gambling, though it is indistinguishable in nature from gambling on games of chance. This is completely unproductive work, adding no value to the economy, and it is in many cases very destructive work, since there is a loser (and often many losers) for every ‘winner’. Much of this ‘work’ entails great temptation and opportunity (insider information, bribes and payoffs, and outright fraud) enabling the ‘players’ to cheat, the only way to guarantee an edge over the losers.

This is shabby business, transforming harmless fun into chronic, ruinous, devastating compulsion, and too often, finally, pathological behaviour.

What is it that pushes some people off this edge, leading so many do-gooders to demand a ban on the activity for everyone to save the vulnerable few? It seems to be that addiction to gambling, in whatever form, is really not that different from any other addiction: to alcohol, tobacco or other drugs, to food and diets, to the Internet and pornography, to exercise, self-mutilation or work. Even the experts admit that separating the physical from the psychological aspects of addiction is almost impossible. They tend to prescribe the same old ‘interventions’ that seem to work for some, but don’t for many: psychological counseling and therapy, notably the notorious and grueling ’12-step’ programs and aversion therapies; and detox programs involving sedation, substitution, and physical therapies like acupuncture.

I have argued before that we are all addicted to something, and that we cannot change who we are. I do know some people who have beaten their addictions, but they have either had powerful motivation to do so (we do what we must…) or else were not really addicted at all. The people I know who are the most obvious and troubled addicts tend to be multiple and serial addicts — their addictions often seem to be substitutes for some other craving they can no longer satisfy, and tend to reinforce each other (unhealthy diets and excessive exercise; tobacco and alcohol; work and alcohol; gambling and porn).

I’m not a fan of banning activities and substances that can be addictive. That’s not libertarian zeal, just an acknowledgement that making addictions illegal doesn’t work. The number of smokers has dropped mostly because it’s become socially seriously unacceptable, and because some older smokers have suffered health complications that leave them no choice but to quit. It’s not because people know it’s unhealthy, and not even because it’s expensive, and making it illegal would just drive it underground or move the addicts to other drugs. And nearly all the serious ex-smokers I know have acquired substitute addictions.

We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun. Addictions start as fun, which none of us has enough of, and, for some, quickly progress to ‘musts’. This terrible world has most of us enslaved, giving up most of our lives, time, energy, and healthy years to mind-numbing and/or exhausting work, anguished or unsatisfying personal relationships, and endless chores we loathe. When that’s done, we want easy fun, and most of the addictive activities and substances provide, or at least promise, easy fun, a rush, a high, a temporary respite from too much boring work and too much depressing news. Who can blame us, especially when commercial interests are all too willing to pander to and profit from our addictions?

I don’t intend to minimize the anguish that addictions, and their darker side, can inflict on addicts and their loved ones. If therapies and detox programs work for them, that’s great. I do suspect, however, that those who are prone to addiction will, unless their lives are free from stress, boredom and confinement, end up addicted to something. Recent studies of mice have in fact shown that they are only prone to addictions when they are stressed, bored and confined. In healthy natural environments, addiction is virtually unknown. And our modern world is so far from healthy and natural that we’re not going to cure addiction by transforming the environment that nurtures it.

The best we can do, and should be trying harder to do, is to discover drugs that are relatively harmless (and really cheap), and invent other substitutions for our more dangerous and destructive addictions. Something that gives the euphoria without the judgement impairment, the fun without the social or financial cost. A challenge perhaps, but with the shared creativity of open source and the technologies alreadyoriented towards entertainment without limit, not an impossible one.

Brave New World come true.

Full disclosure: While I have no financial interest in any aspect of the gambling industry, some members of my family do.

Chances are, you wouldn’t be prepared. You wouldn’t even know what to do. You would instinctively react to the best of your ability, and for the most part you’d do the right things.

You’d screw up on some things however:

• You’d probably try to find and round up your family and then flee the area, causing traffic chaos, blocking emergency vehicles, clogging communication lines and exposing yourself and loved ones to more danger than if you stayed put.
• If it was a health emergency, you might well head for a hospital, clinic or doctor’s office to get Tamiflu. Waste of time.
• You might well help overwhelm government, medical and emergency authorities with your frantic calls for information.

The problem isn’t that thousands or millions will make such mistakes, it’s that emergency workers are counting on you to wait passively for information and instruction, and to stay out of their way. You won’t, and as a result their plans will be jeopardized. And even if there’s no panic, because emergency plans depend on other departments’ and groups’ and governments’ emergency plans working as well, all it takes is one group to fail, or something to fall between the cracks of all these plans, and all of the plans will fail.

We saw this in the response to Katrina: FEMA failed utterly, and all those depending on FEMA to do its job couldn’t do theirs. And none of the local plans anticipated the unavailability of communications infrastructure, so the result was chaos and anarchy. In the aftermath, each group pointed the finger of blame elsewhere, so preparedness plans for most groups have not substantially changed. So if, as many expect, we will see another Katrina this summer, we can expect the same completely inadequate response.

We never learn. It’s not human nature to be prepared for anything that isn’t highly probable and imminent ñ the needs of the moment always take precedence over longer-term thinking. We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun. Emergency preparedness, until itís too late, is none of these things.

There is no human answer to this problem. Just look at the trillions that have been squandered (and the rights trampled and abuses committed) in the insane attempt to prevent a repeat of 9/11, when in all likelihood the next attacks by organized desperados will use utterly different tactics. They have hundreds of obvious ones to choose from, even more if they’re imaginative, and trying to anticipate and preempt them all is ludicrous. Spending money on large standing reserves and task forces which will go into action if and when an emergency of the type they are specifically trained for comes into effect is futile. And the psychological and social damage caused by trying to prepare for a thousand unpredictable possibilities is horrific.

This is not to take anything away from the many organizations that have to cope with emergencies every year, or those who are valiantly trying to prevent them from happening and mitigate the damages they will cause. These are (mostly) intelligent, committed people. But what they are trying to do probably cannot be done. It is another attempt to find a complicated solution to a complex problem.

So what should we do? I’ll suggest some ways of coping with emergencies at the institutional and societal level in a future article (I suggested some in my earlier article on pandemic flu preparation). But at the individual level, there are probably four things that make sense, and a fifth if you’re a keener and live in a close-knit community:

1. Go about your business and your life. Worrying about things that may never happen and which you can’t do anything about is a waste of time, money and energy and will make you ill. People in struggling nations get this, I think, since many in those nations face it day-to-day for their whole lives.
2. Donít expect authorities to look after you in an emergency. They’ll do their best, if they can keep their own people from breaking ranks and looking after their loved ones instead of their duty. And if it’s a relatively minor emergency they may do just fine. Just don’t count on it. Learned helplessness is endemic in our society, and in an emergency it’s a liability.
3. Expect the majority of people to panic as peacefully as they can. Forget the Hollywood hype about massive arson and murder and rape. If you’re hungry and there’s no one in authority, you’ll steal only what you need and only get violent if thereís no other choice. The vast majority of people are like that. In fact, most people really rise to the occasion in an emergency, and some behave absolutely heroically. But expect the roads to be mayhem and ill-conceived, even stupid behaviour to be the norm.
4. Educate yourself and those in your communities on things you can and should do (and not do) when an emergency occurs. The list varies depending on the type of emergency, but hereís eight things to do for starters:
• Have a manageable list of emergency supplies on hand in your home and in your car, and keep them fresh. Include in your house kit: 6 litres of fresh water per person, 3 days’ worth of dried or canned food (and an opener), a flashlight (and batteries), a portable radio (and batteries, even if it’s a crank-type), a first aid kit, prescription medicines, baby food and needs for disabled family members if applicable, extra keys, and cash. Include in your car kit: food, water and first aid as above, plus blankets and spare clothes/shoes, candles-in-a-can (and matches), a knife, emergency light or flares, a shovel, scraper and brush, and emergency contact phone number list. Donít forget to include supplies for your pets, and keep them close! 
• In a health emergency, keep yourself and loved ones away from other people. Take them out of school, stay home from work (unless you’re an emergency worker, in which case stay at work), don’t travel anywhere you don’t have to, and avoid stores, airports, and any other places with lots of people.
• In a health emergency, wash your hands often and thoroughly with hot water and soap, don’t touch potentially contaminated surfaces, use a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol, and, when you cough or sneeze, use a disposable tissue or your sleeve, not your hands.
• In case the emergency drags on, learn where you can get fresh food locally, from farms and gardens, and have a back-up source of heat for your home.
• Learn emergency first aid.
• Keep your cellphone (plus charger and spare batteries) and a list of emergency information numbers and URLs handy, but don’t expect these to work in an emergency.
• Get a flu shot. It won’t protect against pandemic flu, but it will improve your resistance, and you don’t want to be sick during an emergency.
• If you absolutely have to leave, tell people where you’re going.
5. If you live in a friendly, tight neighbourhood and you’re keen, put together a neighbourhood plan ñ who’ll pick up the kids, who’s best at doing what, how to share the difficult tasks you may face, what’s unique to your neighbourhood that must be dealt with, etc. Teach each other what you need to know. Practice, at least on a tabletop, what you will do, when you get everyone together.

If you’re like most people (me included) you won’t prepare an emergency kit, and even if you’re fortunate enough to live in a community like mine you probably won’t do #5 either. But most of the rest of these ideas are really just common sense and don’t require you to do anything until an emergency actually happens. These are mostly about preparing yourself mentally and psychologically, rather than physically, for an emergency. They’re about building your resilience.

In my earlier article I suggested you should think about what you will do if there’s a pandemic and you find you have a natural immunity, or if disease strikes a loved one but not you. But I’m not sure thinking about this in advance serves much purpose ñ if this happens you will do what you will do.

And that’s the overall message that a study of history, an understanding of human nature, and a reading of all the literature on emergency preparedness out there, should probably teach us: Emergencies are going to happen, and they will touch us personally or they won’t, and if they do we will probably do our best even though we won’t be prepared, so there’s no point staying awake worrying aboutit.

More about learned helplessness later this week ñ The more I think about this subject, the more important it seems to be.

In an article last week, I described Jungís four orientations for learning, understanding and seeing the world:

• sensual (through the senses),
• emotional (through the heart),
• intellectual (through the mind) and
• instinctual (through the body/genes)

I described artists as those particularly competent at the sensual and emotional orientations, and one of the notable capacities I listed under those of sensual orientation was storytelling. That’s because stories are detailed creations, and require the journalist’s precise and perceptive attention to who, what, when, where, why and how, and ability to capture them in ways that speak to others. Stories are about telling what is (or was) from a particular perspective.

As I thought about that I read this from Zane at Lichenology:

A major new focus of business is on storytelling, and, in the larger sense, adding context and meaning to information, precisely what Zane describes as the role of art as a ‘shared participation in meaning’. The essence of good storytelling is engaging the audience, drawing them in, transporting them, making them participants in the experiencing of the story, so they really understand its meaning. And so it is with art. In a sense, all art is storytelling, helping us to understand in a sensual, emotional, intellectual and visceral/instinctual way what ‘it all’ means. It is a bridge between the four ways of understanding and knowing. Some arts (novels, film) tell stories in a clearly linear way, while others (music, painting, sculpture) tell their stories holistically, non-sequentially.

Why is it then that for most of the last century, there has been a growing dichotomy between ‘popular’ art (the mass media, including popular music, film and novels) and more complex art? We need to know this because if art is to be a vehicle for social change, it must be accessible and engaging to activists, to those who would take personal (Let-Self-Change), political, economic, social, educational, technological and scientific action as a result of the understanding that art brings them.

The reason, I think, is not anti-intellectualism or (as Joe Bageant would have us believe) a dumbing-down of the population to the point complex art cannot be fathomed, but rather that its very complexity makes it inaccessible and ëunpopularí and hence not useful as a vehicle for social change.

As I’ve said before, we loathe complexity ñ it offends us that elegant simplicity is usually an illusion, that everything is beyond our control and understanding, that effective things are inefficient and efficient things are ineffective to the point of dysfunctionality. We don’t want to work that hard. We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun. There is no time or inclination for the complex.

The mainstream media with their sound bites and reductio ad absurbum pander to our longing for simplicity, but they do not create that longing. We create the paradox ourselves (with some complicity of politicians and other corporatists) by filling our lives with difficult work (the work of making a living, the work of making love last, and the work of satisfying our needs of the moment). After all that exhausting work, to spend our ‘spare’ time on anything difficult is surely masochistic.

And likewise, too many ‘artists’ donít want to work that hard either, especially when formulaic, unoriginal, amateurish ‘popular’ works can be so profitable, and complex works so unappreciated. The enormous popular success of most rap music, trash fiction, and some really mediocre blogs can only frustrate the true artists, composers, creators, investigative journalists, craftspeople and other hard-working ‘storytellers’ whose work requires an investment of time and energy that few seem inclined to give. We all want attention and appreciation, and few will persevere when the terrible and important truths we show the world are ignored and misunderstood.

So what do we do, when none of us, not even those who appreciate the need to know and to act, has the time and energy to appreciate? To appreciate complex art or complex reality. Itís all just too hard.

For example: Andrew Campbell sent me an image of one of his works (below) as an attempt to articulate the meaning of Now Time.

Many of us try to interpret works of art on a strictly intellectual level, to ‘decipher’ it as if it were a puzzle. But complexity cannot be understood on that narrow level. We have to allow it to be internalized within us in its own way and in its own time, to ‘ferment’. We have to allow it to engage our senses, our emotions and our instincts holistically with our intellect. We have to think ‘about’ it. And in todayís world of instant gratification and attention deficit that is a challenging and unrewarded activity, and one that we are increasingly unpracticed at.

Just as we must bear the responsibility for making this world as bearable a place as possible, a little bit better each day, despite knowing that our civilization is unraveling and that what we have done will be undone (though hopefully remembered by the few brave survivors of this century), we must, too, bear the responsibility for telling our stories despite knowing that few are listening and even fewer understand. This is nothing new.

And so, we brave storytellers, each in our own way, continue to tell our stories as best we can, perhaps much as the cave artists did in the millennia before civilization, as the indigenous peoples did during the millennia of civilizationís hopeful dawn, and as the artists of the renaissances of our civilization did as that civilization churned forwards.

We, artists all — painters, composers of music, sculptors, investigative journalists and many others — represent to the world the portrait of our civilizationís fourth and final turning. We ‘just’ tell its story. Whether its meaning will be understood and provoke needed action is not our business.

Perhaps those who survive civilizationís end, and build a more joyful and sustainable society, will have the time and energy to appreciate what we do. And learn from the self-confessed mistakes that cry out in ourportrayal of our terrible world, and its terrible beauty.

A year ago I challenged readers to predict the results of economic data and political events at the end of, or during, 2006. I received 25 responses to the 20 US and World events questions, and 8 responses to the 12 Canadian event questions. Median score, and the Wisdom of Crowds score (the number of times the most popular answer was the correct one), were both 11 out of 20 on the US and World events questions and 4 out of 12 on the Canadian events questions. Due to the few responses there was no prize for the Canadian events questions (Gary and Marty had the top scores, tied at 6 out of 12). Runaway winner for the US and World events questions was Henrik Torstensson, a student at the Stockholm School of Economics with a remarkable 15 out of 20, two more than the runners-up and far better than the Crowd. He wins a 50Ä certificate to a book or music store of his choice.

The questions, with the correct answers in bold:

US and World Events:

1. What will the S&P 500 stock index close at on the last day of trading in 2006 (it’s currently at 1271): (a) under 700, (b) 700-1000, (c) 1000-1300, (d) 1300-1600, (e) 1600-1800, (f) over 1800
2. What will the NASDAQ stock index close at on the last day of trading in 2006 (it’s currently at 2274 and on a tear): (a) under 1500, (b) 1500-1900, (c) 1900-2300, (d) 2300-2700, (e) 2700-3000, (f) over 3000
3. What will the 12-month change in the average US housing prices be at September 30, 2006 (using the OFHEO ‘purchase only’ data) (as at September 30, 2005 it was +10.95%): (a) decline of more than 20%, (b) decline of 10-20%, (c) decline of 0-10%, (d) increase of 0-5%, (e) increase of 5-10%, (f) increase of more than 10%
4. What will the US national debt be at the last reported date of 2006 per the US Treasury Dept. (at the end of 2005 it was $8.2 trillion, up almost 10% from a year earlier): (a) less than $8 trillion, (b) $8-8.5 trillion, (c) $8.5-9 trillion, (d) $9-9.5 trillion, (e) $9.5-10 trillion, (f) over $10 trillion
5. What will the annualized US trade deficit be as at the end of October 2006 per the Census Bureau (as at October 2005 it was $718 billion, up about 25% over the previous year’s deficit, pushing the accumulated deficit up over $9 trillion): (a) less than $600 billion, (b) $600-700 billion, (c) $700-800 billion, (d) $800-900 billion, (e) $900 billion to $1 trillion, (f) over $1 trillion
6. What will the US average 15-year new mortgage rate be at the end of 2006 per Bloomberg (at the end of 2005 it was 5.25%, up from 4.76% a year earlier): (a) less than 5%, (b) 5-5.5%, (c) 5.5-6%, (d) 6-8%, (e) 8-10%, (f) over 10%
7. What will the US (CPI) inflation rate be for 2006 (the rate for 2005 was 3.4%): (a) negative, (b) 0-2%, (c) 2-4%, (d) 4-6%, (e) 6-10%, (f) over 10%
8. What will be the value of the Real Broad Dollar Index of the US dollar versus other major currencies per the Fed at the end of 2006 (the rate at the end of 2005 was 110.8, down from 113.6 a year earlier and 126.7 in 2002): (a) less than 90, (b) 90-100, (c) 100-105, (d) 105-110, (e) 110-115, (f) over 115
9. How many US Senate seats will the Republicans hold after the 2006 mid-term elections (they currently hold 55, and 33 seats will be contested, about equally split between the two parties): (a) fewer than 48, (b) 48-50, (c) 51-53, (d) 54-56, (e) 57-59, (f) 60 or more
10. What will be the status of the Bush/Cheney presidency at the end of 2006: (a) both intact, (b) Cheney resigned or impeached, (c) Bush, or both Bush & Cheney, resigned or impeached, (d) grand jury appointed to look at impeachable offenses but still in progress, (e) letters of impeachment drawn up but not yet exercised
11. What will be the status of Blair at the end of 2006: (a) still in power, (b) declared intention to resign, (c) resigned or removed from office
12. What impact will natural disasters (hurricanes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, melting of the icecap etc.) have on our lives in 2006 by most accounts: (a) significantly less than 2005, (b) comparable to 2005, (c) significantly greater than 2005
13. Which of these countries will sign the Kyoto accord in 2006: (a) China, (b) the US, (c) both, (d) neither
14. What impact will influenza and other lethal viruses have on our lives in 2006: (a) a lull, with significantly less mention than in 2005, (b) continued sporadic outbreaks of concern, (c) local epidemics raising the global influenza death toll to over one million (twice the ‘normal’ rate), (d) a global pandemic killing more than ten million people
15. What impact will nuclear weapons threats have on our lives in 2006: (a) localized threats from Iran, Israel and/or North Korea, (b) significant threats to use nuclear weapons from additional countries, (c) actual detonation of one or more nuclear weapons as a hostile act rather than just a ‘test’
16. What impact will biological and chemical weapons (or the blowing up of sites containing lethal chemical or biological substances) have on our lives in 2006: (a) nothing more than a few scares, (b) deliberate use of such weapons with 10 to 1000 fatalities, (c) deliberate use of such weapons by a group or nation with more than 1000 fatalities
17. What will light crude futures be priced at at the end of 2006 (they are currently about $63/barrel, up 40% from a year earlier): (a) under $50/barrel, (b) $50-60/barrel, (c) $60-70/barrel, (d) $70-80/barrel, (e) $80-100/barrel, (f) over $100/barrel
18. Which of the following will occur in 2006: (a) Chavez will be overthrown in Venezuela, (b) Putin will be overthrown in Russia, (c) both, (d) neither
19. The most severe famine of 2006 (killing at least one million people) will occur in (a) East Africa, (b) Central or West Africa, (c) China, (d) elsewhere in Asia, (e) there will be no famine that bad
20. What will Bush do regarding Iran in 2006: (a) invade, (b) sporadic incursions, no-fly zones and similar ‘limited’ military action, (c) embargo or other economic action only, (d) just threats and demands

Canadian Events: (contest open to Canadian respondents only)

1. In the January 2006 election, how many seats will the Liberals win: (a) fewer than 90, (b) 90-99, (c) 100-109, (d) 110-114, (e) 115-120, (f) more than 120
2. In the January 2006 election, how many seats will the Conservatives win: (a) fewer than 90, (b) 90-99, (c) 100-109, (d) 110-114, (e) 115-120, (f) more than 120
3. In the January 2006 election, how many seats will the NDP win: (a) fewer than 10, (b) 10-14, (c) 15-19, (d) 20-24, (e) 25-29, (f) more than 29
4. In the January 2006 election, how many seats will the Bloq win: (a) fewer than 50, (b) 50-54, (c) 55-59, (d) 60-64, (e) 65-69, (f) more than 69
5. Who will win the Stanley Cup in 2006: (a) Ottawa, (b) another Canada-based team, (c) Detroit, (d) another US-based team in the Western Conference, (e) a US-based team in the Eastern Conference
6. Which Canadian party leaders will still be party leaders at the end of 2006: (a) Martin, (b) Harper, (c) both, (d) neither
7. When will the next Canadian election be after the one in January: (a) before the end of June 2006, (b) in the latter half of 2006, (c) date set for 2007 by the end of 2006, (d) not scheduled by the end of 2006
8. Will Canada suffer a significant terrorist attack (scale of the London subway bombings or greater) during 2006: (a) yes, (b) no
9. What will be the status of Quebec at the end of 2006: (a) referendum held, majority voted to separate, (b) referendum held, majority voted not to separate, (c) referendum scheduled but not yet held, (d) no referendum scheduled or held, but significant powers transferred to Quebec and other provinces by federal government, (e) none of the above
10. What will the value of the Canadian dollar be relative to the US dollar at the end of 2006 (it is currently at 86 cents): (a) below 80 cents, (b) 80-84 cents, (c) 84-88 cents, (d) 88-92 cents, (e) 92-96 cents, (f) over 96 cents
11. What will be the status of Canada-US relations at the end of the year: (a) Canada or US has withdrawn from NAFTA, (b) Bush recognizes NAFTA court verdicts and repays illegal duties to Canada, improving relations, (c) Canadian litigation against US remains unresolved, relations remain sour, (d) federal government drops actions against US, and agrees to send Canadian troops to Iraq/Iran, (e) federal government drops actions against US, but does not agree to send Canadian troops to Iraq/Iran
12. What will the TSX stock index close at on the last day of trading in 2006 (it’s currently at 11500 and on a tear): (a) under 9000, (b) 9000-10000, (c) 10000-11000, (d) 11000-12000, (e) 12000-14000, (f) over 14000