George Monbiot’s Heat — Part Two

Thermal regulation
Still won’t be blogging regularly for awhile because of computer problems, but I did promise the rest of this review so here it is. Hi to all the friends old & new I met at KMWorld in San Jose this week.

This is the second part of a two-part review of George Monbiot’s book Heat. In the first part I explained Monbiot’s argument that a carbon rationing system was needed – that voluntary, technological and free-market solutions were not viable. Absolute caps in total carbon emissions, 90% less than current emission levels, need to be accepted in every sector of the economy. To the extent new technology reduces emissions they are welcome, but one way or another, by 2030, we must be releasing no more than a tenth of the carbon into the atmosphere that we are releasing now.

Monbiot explains three paradoxes that profoundly affect conservation behaviours:

  • The Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate: As energy efficiency improves, people can afford more energy-intensive solutions, so improvements in energy efficiency can actually lead to more consumption, not less. So if many people buy hybrids, by lowering demand for gasoline they could make it cheaper and encourage more SUV purchases and use as well.
  • The Rebound Effect: As energy efficiency improves, personal energy costs go down, allowing personal volume of use to go up with no net increase in cost. So if home heating fuel costs drop, people will turn up their house temperature, and if many people buy hybrids, they can afford to drive them more often and further than they might have.
  • Regulation Actually Enhances Personal Freedoms: Strict home building and refurbishing codes, while increasing the cost of housing, frees the subsequent owners of the homes of the need to expend money wastefully on fuel and on short-term repairs.

The first specific area that Monbiot applies his rationing scheme to is home construction. He says the following regulatory changes are needed to achieve 90% reduction in home energy consumption:

  • Much stricter construction quality and insulation standards, and much better enforcement of standards
  • Mandated use of heat exchangers
  • Better window design (appropriate size, south facing) and glazing standards
  • Mandatory appliance efficiency standards
  • Better hot water tank design
  • Prohibition of ‘standby’ modes on appliances
  • Mandated use of LED lighting
  • Mandatory use of vacuum insulation in fridges and freezers
  • Mandated use of ‘smart meters’ (that tell you how much energy you are using and shut down non-essential energy use during peak use periods

One of the challenges we face is the huge variability in demand for electricity by season, time of day and other factors, and the need to have production capacity ‘reserves’ to accommodate spikes in demand quickly. His solutions to this problem:

  • Stop using coal (heavy carbon dioxide creator) burning to provide this variable capacity reserve, and use natural gas instead (including substantially increasing our available gas reserves)
  • Use of carbon scrubbing and re-storage of scrubbed carbon in underground aquifers
  • Much tougher nuclear power plant waste storage and disposal, plant decommissioning, and security standards (and, because of the security and waste disposal problems, zero net increase in nuclear usage – which puts Monbiot at odds with a large new group of pro-nuke environmentalists such as James Lovelock)
  • Development of high voltage direct current cables and transmission systems — Although initial loss of electricity of DC cables is higher than for AC, there is no incremental loss of electricity as the length of the cable increases, making it possible to build offshore wind farms in very windy areas and transmit the energy over vast distances to areas with poor wind regimes, and to combine wind generators from different areas to reduce the impact of low-wind days and the need to use backup hydrocarbons on those days
  • Use of new ‘solar thermal electricity’ technology (focuses solar energy to produce steam)

Theoretically, he says, we could produce all the electricity we need, with 90% less carbon emissions, with a combination of scrubbed natural gas burning generators and wind energy from high-wind regime areas transported through high voltage direct current lines. The problem, though, is that most of us heat our homes with furnaces that burn hydrocarbons, not electrically. The solution to this, he argues, is to install the new generator technology (similar to that now used to power submarines) that produces heat and electricity at the same time. Greenpeace has developed a proposal to use these generators in winter, and switch to solar heating in summer (when home heating is not needed and the sun is stronger). But to reduce the carbon from the furnaces, we would need to convert to hydrogen-burning furnaces or hydrogen fuel cells in our home heating and electrical systems. So the complicated solution, he says, is:

A micro-generation system using solar panels and either hydrogen furnaces or hydrogen fuel cells would supply home heat and electricity. Either they could make their own hydrogen from electricity supplied by the grid, or obtain it from a pipeline network…Everything comes on and goes off at the flick of a switch, and works as smoothly as our heat and electricity systems do today. Around half of our grid-based electricity could be supplied by means of a few very large power systems burning methane, either in the form of natural gas or the effluvium from underground coal gasification [the only way to employ coal cleanly, he argues], and burying the carbon dioxide they produce. The other half, if my meta-guess is correct, could be provided by offshore wind and wave machines [carried by high voltage DC power lines].

In the process of coming up with this solution, he reluctantly rejects as impractical or naive three technologies that many environmentalists embrace:

  • Home-based micro turbines
  • Off-grid community-based energy ‘internets’
  • Biofuel-based energy generation

He then turns his attention to the transportation system, another great carbon producer. He points out the irony that the faster cars travel on an expressway, the fewer cars the expressway can simultaneously accommodate (because of the need to provide greater stopping distance between the cars). So the 118-mile long, 6-8 lane UK M25 expressway can accommodate 53,000 car passengers (with an average occupancy of 1.6/car) traveling at 30 mph, but only 19,000 passengers traveling at 60 mph. If all cars were replaced with buses, it could accommodate 260,000 passengers at once. His answer, then, is to convert existing expressway lanes to bus-only lanes, operate high-amenity buses (spacious, comfortable seating, work-stations, food, beverage and media services) and run them, not in the cities, but in the suburbs and country, from the peripheral subway and LRT stations of the cities outward. Combined with carbon capping and rationing, and capping and rationing of road space, he argues that this could reduce auto emissions by 90% with no significant drop in convenience, comfort or transportation speed.

What could make the system even better, he argues, would be the use of imagination and innovation in transportation system design and options – new technologies like cellphones, GPS, vehicle tracking and smart tagging could offer exciting and efficient new ways of getting from A to B without major new investment.

While hydrogen is feasible in home power generation, it is not feasible, at least not in the 2030 time horizon, for powering automobiles and other hydrocarbon-based transportation, he argues. This argument, like those he makes against micro wind turbines, off-grid energy internets and biofuels, is complicated – too much so to meaningfully appreciate without reading how Monbiot made the long journey from enthusiast to skeptic on these technologies, in his own words. He’s also dubious about the limits of telecommuting and home-based enterprise – while he certainly encourages these developments as energy conserving, he makes a compelling case that less than 20% of work trips could practically be eliminated by them.

He offers no solutions to reducing air travel emissions by 90% short of grounding 90% of flights – he reviews and dismisses each of the popular ideas for making air travel more efficient or less polluting. A single London-to-NY round trip flight would exhaust a person’s entire 1.2 tonne annual budget for transportation emissions under Monbiot’s rationing scheme.

His solution to reduce the extravagant amount of carbon that comes from retail operations is simple – all stores whose customers reach them principally by private vehicles would be forced (by the limits of the rationing scheme or by direct regulation) to convert to online warehouse-based delivery-to-home operations. Savings would accrue not only from reduced electricity and square footage but from saved customer fuel and reduced need for packaging. Of all his solutions, I think this is the most problematic. George doesn’t appreciate that going to the mall is a social experience now embedded in western culture, not just a method for buying stuff. His suggestion for replacing the highly-polluting Portland cement and concrete production process with geopolymeric cements, which is also squeezed into the penultimate chapter, is far more compelling.

The book’s final chapter deconstructs the arguments that new fuel technologies or new carbon scrubbing technologies will save the day by 2030. “To succumb to hope of this nature”, he says, “is as dangerous as to succumb to despair.” Monbiot loves technologies and has studied dozens in the search for the easiest way to meet his 90% target, and in the process learned much about the discovery and commercialization curve, even when it is accelerated by urgency. Likewise, he dismisses the argument that the economic and fuel-consumption crash that Peak Oil will precipitate will solve the problem for us. It will actually make it worse, he says, as governments yield to the temptation to reintroduce dirty coal and other environmentally devastating fuels to stave off massive shortages and spiralling prices. He also dismisses those who would rely on “the market” to automatically self-correct our insatiable hunger for energy. “Buying and selling carbon offsets is like pushing the food around on your plate to create the impression you have eaten it”, he says. What is needed is absolute, immediate, equitable and universal reductions in emissions, and this cannot be done without regulation and rationing.

The problem, of course, is that regulations require governments with the courage to enact and enforce them. It took a horrific and unprecedented depression to push even the enlightened administration of FDR to switch from a laissez-faire to a highly regulated modus operandi. By the time the impacts of global warming hit home (and they will punish the disenfranchised and powerless poor of the world first) it will be too late. Monbiot concludes his book by trying to convince us to get off our collective butts, stop reading and chatting about the unfolding crisis, and do something. But his prescription is mostly actions for government, and we know too well how little our collective citizen/consumer voice counts in the minds of governments wined and dined and bribed to do the exact opposite by the most wealthy, powerful and organized corporatist lobby in history.

The ultimate irony of Heat is that his prescription is probably the only one that can save this planet from the scourge of global warming, but that, as simple, direct and painless as it is, this prescription has about the same likelihood of actually coming about as a snowball’s chance in hell. Or, perhaps I should say, a snowball’s chance on Earth after Monbiot’sbrave, well-researched, and ingenious ideas have been forgotten.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 4 Comments

Going offline for a week or two

Stressed out. My computer is crap and will need a week or two to fix. So I’m going offline until that’s done and I’ve had a chance to mellow out. Don’t give up on me — I’ll be back. Take care. /-/ Dave

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 15 Comments

George Monbiot’s Heat — Part One

Thermal regulation
Other recent books like The Weather Makers explain what we’re doing to cause global warming and the catastrophes it will soon cause. George Monbiot’s book Heat is devoted entirely to answering the question What Do We Do To Stop It. This is the first in a series of articles summarizing his action plan.

From the outset, Monbiot makes clear that he’s not looking for a subsistence solution: He doesn’t believe any such solution can be ‘sold’ to the majority of the people in affluent nations, so he doesn’t propose to try. We need to retain, he says, our creature comforts, our political and economic freedoms, our right to health care and education and security and freedom from fear.

The deadline for effective action to curb global warming, he argues, is 2030, and by then we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90%, nothing less. Heat prescribes the least difficult and least painful means to do so. This includes:

  • dramatically improved ways to build homes and other buildings
  • the optimal mix of feasible renewable and non-renewable means of supplying energy to those buildings
  • radical changes to land transportation without significantly reducing mobility
  • a significant curtailing of air travel, since it is a major greenhouse gas contributor for which no satisfactory way of reducing emissions by 90% is available
  • mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the retail and cement industries by 90%

Monbiot quickly dismisses voluntary approaches to achieving these ends, and asserts that “unfashionable” strict government regulation and compliance enforcement will be essential to success. “By and large”, he says, “whatever our beliefs may be, we consume as much as our incomes allow”. But beyond the regulations absolutely needed to achieve these 90% reductions, he insists that governments must maximize freedoms of citizens.

Monbiot is scornful of the ‘light green’ technophiles who believe (because it’s easy) that new technologies will allow us to innovate our way to solutions to global warming. Micro wind turbines, for example, are “a waste of time and money”. He is equally scornful of the ‘dark green’ eco neosurvivalists who rejoice at the idea of civilizational collapse, and their cohorts who proclaim (as I have done) that it is already, realistically, too late to hope that anything we could do will be enough or in time.

So in his introduction he’s already set himself against the global warming holocaust deniers, the believers in using market forces, the technophiles, the radical greens and the green fatalists. That’s just about everyone. “As always”, he says, “I am destined to offend everyone”. His goal in this book is “to prompt you not to lament our governments’ failures to introduce the measures required to tackle climate change, but to force them to reverse their policies, by joining what must become the world’s most powerful political movement”.

The key mechanism for enforcement of Monbiot’s solution is a carbon rationing system, using a second ‘currency’ (Monbiot calls it ‘icecaps’ to remind us of its purpose)allocated equally to each consumer on our electricity, home fuel and transportation fuel usage. Individuals would be allotted 40% of the national total carbon ration, and the remaining 60% would be held by the government for its use and to auction to corporations to the highest bidder. There would be a free market for the rations — the poor and efficient could sell what they did not need to the rich for whatever the going market price turned out to be, so that the ration would apply fairly to all yet also allow for income redistribution between rich and poor. And the rationing system would also reward conservation and innovation in energy efficiency.

The rationing system would have to be accompanied by a large, subsidized system to encourage improvements in home appliance efficiency and insulation, in public transportation, and in special subsidies during extreme weather conditions (to buy more ‘icecaps’, not to exceed their ration).

You can’t fault him for ambition.

In upcoming parts of this review, I’ll describe the other elements of Monbiot’s solution in more detail: Improving home energy efficiency, optimizing the mix of alternative energy sources, improving the transportation system, reducing our ‘air miles’, and improving the retail and cement industries. In each case the improvement is towards the goal of reducing emissions, not energy efficiency — by decoupling these in our minds and our markets he proposes to encourage and reward technologies that are cleaner, without depending on them for success. And in his final chapter, Monbiot tackles, and lays to rest, the four ‘messiahs’ that others believe can or will make the need to tackle climate change moot: new fuel technologies, new cleaning technologies, Peak Oil, and the market mechanism of carbon offsets. Peak Oil in particular, heargues, could well make global warming worse.

Stay tuned for Part Two. And go get the book.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 5 Comments

Sunday Open Thread — October 29, 2006


Amy Allcock Royal Bank Plaza
Royal Bank Plaza Toronto by Amy Allcock

It’s been a tiring week — lots of work, lousy weather, and everyone around me seems to be suffering from colds, allergies etc. My stress level is rising, because after weeks of improvement in my health, my fatigue level has risen (and my running performance dropped) this week — the last time this happened was just before the onset of my colitis. Plus, my first out-of-country trip in months is coming up next week, and I find flying to the US gets more stressful with every new xenophobic regulation. And, just to make things worse, my laptop monitor has shorted out (HP Compaq this time, not a Dell — nine months old). So if my blog posts suddenly stop for a few days, you’ll know why.

This coming week, I’ll be writing about Kathy Sierra’s brilliant suggestions for engaging presentations and conversations, about Jeff Vail’s rhizome theory (the state of my computer permitting), and, in a multi-part article, about George Monbiot’s important new book Heat.  

I’m getting increasingly concerned about the (apparent lack of) scalability of bottom-up, networked actions — having seen the ultimate failure of the Dean campaign, the hopelessness of the US political situation when the only alternative (the Democratic party) shows it cannot offer any real alternative to the worst administration in the history of the US, and the struggle to get Intentional Community, community-based energy and food co-ops and other community-based models to catch on. It seems partly to be a matter of attention (not getting enough of it, thanks to the corporatist media and the general attention deficit, ignorance and cynicism of the public), and partly a matter of lack of urgency and lack of resources. We seem to be suffering from terminal inertia at a time when we are running out of time.

The floor is yours. Tell us what’s on your mind, and let’s have a conversation about something you care about.

Posted in Using Weblogs and Technology | 11 Comments

Links for the Week – October 28, 2006

Farland Mor Windows in Paris
‘More Windows in Paris’, A sample of the amazing photography of Zaadster ‘Farland’

Pimping for Failed Fat-Cat Executives: Money buys power, which gets you more money. If you’re rich but a total screw-up, the NYT tells us you can hire Frederick W. Cook & Company to get your employer to pay you for your failure, and pay you a lot more to leave, leaving you free to move to some other big dumb corporation who will pay to screw up even more.

Stuff You Can Do to Save the World: Canadian Guy Dauncey’s EarthFuture site is a goldmine of links to articles, including Guy’s own work, on community and environmental activism. And NRDC also has a ton of information about what we are doing to the environment, what that damage is doing to our health, and what we can do to fight back. Especially useful are their wallet cards, which provide guidance on what to buy and not buy to be a responsible consumer. Thanks to David Parkinson and Dale Asberry for the links.

A Search Engine That Talks Back: MsDewey is a search engine that features an animated ‘librarian’ that prompts you to enter your search terms and shows impatience if you’re slow. She’s not very helpful, but who cares? Thanks to Greg Turko for the link.

The Best Way Out of the Iraq Fiasco: The NYT has a brilliant prescription for exiting Iraq with minimal further damage. Key elements: Be honest with Americans, fire Rumsfeld, demand talks among Iraq’s factions, stabilize Baghdad (give up on the rest of Iraq — not enough troops to go around), convene neighbouring countries.

Fish Oil vs Flax Oil for Omega-3: World’s Healthiest Foods provides the case for flax oil and flax seeds as a good source of Omega-3, considered valuable in reducing the risk of heart attack and also reducing many inflammations associated with anti-immune diseases (like my colitis). But flax is controversial. Some sources argue that the seeds themselves pass through your system without imparting the oil’s benefits. Some say flax oil causes prostate cancer. Flax oil has a high calorie count. And there is doubt about how much of the AHA acid in flax actually gets converted to the essential EPA and DHA Omega-3 acids found naturally in some fish oil. Meanwhile, vegetarians, animal rights advocates and those worried about mercury poisoning would prefer not to consume fish oil. The debate continues. Thanks to Dale Asberry for the link.

Homeland Security Chief Says the Web is Dangerous: According to Wired, Chertoff is telling the Bushies that the Web allows people to ‘learn’ to be dissatisfied with the American Way, and then learn how to be terrorists. A perfect example of the blinkered conservative worldview that it’s better to shelter people from truths that are not pleasant. And frightening in a guy who has as much power and influence as Chertoff. Thanks to fouroboros for the link.

Education Free for Everyone Online: The total flipside of the Chertoff worldview is exemplified by this short video on Open Education Resources (OER), a global movement to provide all the resources needed for self-education on the Web, free. Thanks to Rob Paterson for the link.

Just for Fun — Online Toys: Several neat toys from Jim Bumgardner include a colour picker that cruises flickr for photos that match any colour you select from the palette, and an awesome downloadable kaleidoscopic screensaver that mashes up images from the web, real-time, for any keywords you type in.

Why Web 2.0 Needs Principles: Umair Haque at bubblegeneration comments on how some web thought leaders are helping the CIA use the net, and wonders when principles for ethical, democratic use of the web will start to emerge so that the real promise of bottom-up application and power shift can be realized.Until then, he says, Web 2.0 continues to stand for exactly nothing.

Thought for the week: A poem by Wendell Berry:

A Timbered Choir
     
Even while I dreamed I prayed that what I saw was only fear and no foretelling,
for I saw the last known landscape destroyed for the sake
of the objective, the soil bludgeoned, the rock blasted.
Those who had wanted to go home would never get there now.

I visited the offices where for the sake of the objective the planners planned
at blank desks set in rows. I visited the loud factories
where the machines were made that would drive ever forward
toward the objective. I saw the forest reduced to stumps and gullies; I saw
the poisoned river, the mountain cast into the valley;
I came to the city that nobody recognized because it looked like every other city.
I saw the passages worn by the unnumbered
footfalls of those whose eyes were fixed upon the objective.

Their passing had obliterated the graves and the monuments
of those who had died in pursuit of the objective
and who had long ago forever been forgotten, according
to the inevitable rule that those who have forgotten forget
that they have forgotten. Men, women, and children now pursued the objective
as if nobody ever had pursued it before.

The races and the sexes now intermingled perfectly in pursuit of the objective.
the once-enslaved, the once-oppressed were now free
to sell themselves to the highest bidder
and to enter the best paying prisons
in pursuit of the objective, which was the destruction of all enemies,
which was the destruction of all obstacles, which was the destruction of all objects,
which was to clear the way to victory, which was to clear the way to promotion, to salvation, to progress,
to the completed sale, to the signature
on the contract, which was to clear the way
to self-realization, to self-creation, from which nobody who ever wanted to go home
would ever get there now, for every remembered place
had been displaced; the signposts had been bent to the ground and covered over.

Every place had been displaced, every love
unloved, every vow unsworn, every word unmeant
to make way for the passage of the crowd
of the individuated, the autonomous, the self-actuated, the homeless
with their many eyes opened toward the objective
which they did not yet perceive in the far distance,
having never known where they were going,
having never known where they came from.

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 6 Comments

For Sale: Baby Shoes. Never Worn.

baby shoesThe title of this post was written by Ernest Hemingway, and is one of the first examples of ‘flash fiction‘, very, very short stories. The upcoming Wired Magazine challenged sci-fi, fantasy and horror writers to see if they could top Ernest’s very earnest six-word effort, in their own genres. The results are mixed, and, in my opinion, mostly disappointing. My favourites:

It cost too much, staying human.
– Bruce Sterling

Osamaís time machine: President Gore concerned.
– Charles Stross

Overall, this was the wrong group to ask. After all, these are the writers who bring you trilogies — they take up the whole first volume just to introduce you to the characters. Much better to ask poets, or cartoonists, the masters of brevity. TS Eliot, for example, could have proffered the following, converting brilliant epigrams to short stories merely by changing tenses from present to past:

Humankind couldn’t bear very much reality.

The only wisdom was wisdom of humility.

The whole world was our hospital.

In our end was our beginning.

Where was the unimaginable Zero summer?

Or the words of Charles Barsotti, cartoonist non-pareil, brief and witty even without the accompanying drawings:

I sure didn’t hire the consultant.

“Introspection”, he roared, “is for losers“.

Here’s a few I came up with on the spur of the moment (OK, in the shower, this is harder than it looks):

2027: Civilization crashed. Fire, then ice.

He loved. Lost. Grieved. Carried on.

Black ice. Ten seconds. Skid. Crash.

Hemingway’s opus brevis probably can’t be topped. It’s the personal that gets to us, stirs our imagination more than the funny, or the fantastic. The point of every good story is to engage the reader to make it her/his own, and to fill in the ambiguities and blanks with her/his own rich details and imaginings. And six words leaves a lot of blanks. Also, parsing the six words into several one, two, or three-word thoughts lets you say more, I think, than even the cleverestsix-word sentence.

OK. Your turn. Give us yours.

Six words, no more, no less.

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 31 Comments

Need, Want, Love

Need Want LoveWriting about love twice in just over a week — perhaps it’s a sign of the times. I’m learning to spend more time observing people, and sometimes what I’m discovering is a bit unnerving. I’m more convinced than ever that we’re suffering from a collective madness caused by too much crowding, too much psychological imprisonment, and too much stress. Love is not meant to be a coping mechanism for such madness, but often it is pressed into service for that purpose. The result, I think, is unreasonable expectations from a single relationship, and unreasonable demands and pressure on those we presume to love.

What we call ‘love’ is really a combination of three states:

  • a physical and emotional need, based on dependency,
  • a physical and emotional want, based on desire, and
  • an intellectual and emotional attachment (what we call ‘love‘ in later years), based on respect, gratefulness and admiration.

These three states can exist together or in isolation, as shown in the diagram above, and they can be profound or shallow. None is stronger or more important or nobler than the others, and we can be driven to the ends of the earth for any of them, even in the absence of the other two. Most of what we do in life is driven by these three states, for a reason: Behaviours based on profound needs, wants, and love for others tend to lead to protection, procreation and survival of the species.
If you observe or study emotional relationships of wild animals, they tend to follow the migration path shown in green on the diagram: In infancy, there is great need, which evolves into love as the animal matures. Then relationships change from parent-child to peer-to-peer, and become driven by a combination of love (a learned social emotion) and want (an instinctive, biological emotion). This is what a mature relationship is all about: the weaning from need to an independent emotional relationship. The need in animal societies manifests itself at the community level: Most creatures are profoundly social, and need the companionship of their group or tribe or flock. But they don’t need any individual in that community (that’s not to say that they don’t grieve the loss of an individual — the loss of one we love or want intensely is as overwhelming as the loss of one we need, perhaps even more so.

Our emotional relationship with domesticated animals follows the first part of this natural green migration path, from the kitten or puppy’s need for care, to a need/love relationship, but then it stalls — we have bred animal companion species to never grow up and outgrow their need for us, so that relationship never really matures.

In modern human society, we’ve messed up this emotional migration path thoroughly, so that it looks more like the red path above than the green one: Our infant dependency is quickly followed by rebellion and declarations of independence, until at puberty they are supplanted by peer-to-peer relationships that are almost pure want (adoration, lust, longing). The painful tumult of adolescence and young adulthood quickly morphs these relationships into co-dependent ones, where we cocoon ourselves away from hurts inflicted by those outside. As we grow older, the intensity of that want for a single person usually diminishes, and a love based on respect, gratefulness and admiration takes its place. But the emotional dependency continues, and eventually as we lose our mental faculties in very old age the need (physical, emotional and intellectual) increases and becomes not dissimilar to the situation in which we began life. We never really reach the ‘mature’ relationship at the endpoint of the natural (green) migration path, where we love and want other individuals but do not depend on them.

That is probably a very jaundiced view of human nature and the nature of our emotional relationships, but that’s what I have, with few exceptions, observed. The fact that we need other individuals so much and so relentlessly for so much of our lives puts incredible strain and demands on such relationships. That is why I believe that human societies, like those of our cousins the bonobos, are naturally polyamory, and that monogamous love, while possible and perhaps even admirable, is unnatural. When couples break up it usually means (in the absence of abuse or extreme external stress) that one or both parties have broken the chain of co-dependency — their want or need for someone else exceeds their love and need for the person they were in an exclusive relationship with.

In fact many of the enduring relationships of adults I know (and I confess that, when I look closely, few adult relationships today are enduring well) seem to be those where the couple love but no longer need or (really) want each other — the relationships of our grandparents. You reach that stage, you’re no longer really in the market for new relationships driven by passionate wants, and you’ve learned (with luck) that neediness is debilitating and unbecoming. You still want, but only in your dreams and fantasies, and don’t expect those wants to be reciprocated. That’s modern human maturity, I guess. Better than nothing, but less than ideal, and less than natural.

Meanwhile, we instinctively share the need of other creatures for the companionship of community, for collective social activity and belonging. The isolation of individuals in the nuclear family, in ‘single family dwellings’, in transient neighbourhoods that offer none of the qualities of true community, forces us to sublimate that need and try (in vain) to satisfy it through individual relationships with friends, lovers, spouses. That puts an enormous burden on these individual relationships, which is inversely proportional to the amount of time we have left in our busy lives to invest in those relationships, and the number of those relationships: If you’ve ever been someone’s only ‘real friend’ or had someone unburden themselves on you suddenly and awkwardly to an extent not really warranted by how close that person was to you before their crisis, you know what what I mean.

But we fumble along as best we can, trying to reconcile the needs, wants and loves that drive us (and have driven all life on Earth since it began) with the realities, pressures and scant opportunities of modern civilization. The result is not pretty, and often ghastly. If we’re wise, we learn to laugh about it, because the only alternative, too often, is to rage or weep. Inlove, as in all things, we do what we must.

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 5 Comments

A Four-Pronged Approach to Getting to ‘Yes’

Getting to Yes
I hate selling. As a believer in the principles of complexity (adapt to the situation/environment, don’t try to change it), I think trying to change people’s minds is inherently, unnecessarily difficult, and often futile. Tell people what makes sense to you, and if it makes sense to them, they will say ‘yes’. If it doesn’t, don’t try to persuade them, come up with another approach or solution that will make sense to them. 

Sometimes, however, you have no choice – you have to make a pitch. This is especially true when you’re dealing with decision-makers in a hierarchy and they don’t agree with each other. That means someone besides you has to change their mind. Recently, I’ve seen several presentations that use a simple, four-pronged approach to persuade someone to change their mind. I don’t know where it originates, but it seems quite powerful, and based on its growing popularity it presumably works. It’s summarized in the diagram above. 

The idea is to appeal to your audience in four different ways, for two reasons:

  • Depending on their worldview, sensitivities, drivers and biases, different people are persuaded by different things: Some respond better to negatives (threats, risks) and others to positives (benefits, opportunities), and
  • Depending on their context for understanding the problem or issue, different people have different levels of knowledge and awareness about it: By taking different approaches to persuasion, we appeal to different understandings and contexts, at least one of which should work for each audience member.

The four approaches are:

  1. Anxieties: What is causing stress to your audience that your idea/proposal will relieve? Audiences that respond to this approach are those who focus on the urgent before the important. If an issue is keeping them awake at night they will have a propensity to listen and respond positively to ideas and proposals that address it, even if the benefits are otherwise small. So by talking about possible anxieties, you have a better chance of ‘tapping into’ anxieties that this audience segment feels, and getting them engaged.
  2. Incapabilities: What can your audience not currently do that your idea/proposal will enable them to do? Audiences that respond to this approach are those who focus on vulnerabilities rather than abilities. If an issue makes them feel that they are at risk if they do not resolve it, they will have a propensity to listen and respond positively to ideas and proposals that address it, even if the benefits are otherwise small. So by talking about incapabilities, you have a better chance of engaging that segment of the audience that responds to risk more than opportunity.
  3. Needs: What does your audience need that your idea/proposal will address? A third segment of your audience will be process focused, and will respond to ideas and proposals that address needs that they have already identified and perhaps articulated, which are not being met (and could not be readily met) by any obvious solution. You engage this segment by recognizing and anticipating what they need and want, without them having to tell you.
  4. Benefits: What are the specific, measurable benefits to your audience of your idea/proposal? A final segment of your audience is impressed more by opportunity than risk, and will respond to ideas and proposals that stress benefits that they can personally relate to in the context of doing their job, task or hobby. They are not generally impressed by generic lists of benefits – they want to know that you know enough about how they would personally use your idea or proposal if it was implemented (so you need to do your homework to know your audience). They are also not generally impressed by lists of features.

By “audience” I am referring to whichever group you are trying to persuade – ‘real’ customers who will pay money for your idea or proposal, managers who you need to get to buy into and approve your idea or proposal, or internal users of your organization’s tools and processes.

The keys to being able to incorporate these four approaches effectively into your ‘pitch’ are:

  • Knowing your audience – What’s keeping them awake at night, how and why they might use your idea or proposal, and which of the four approaches they are most likely to respond to.
  • Avoiding repetition – It takes some skill to be able to incorporate all four approaches without obviously saying the same thing four times different ways, and boring or annoying your audience. Using different examples or stories can help you engage all four audience segments without being repetitive.
  • Being brief and direct – If you’ve done your homework, you needn’t be vague or circular in making your point. Get to it directly, point out the anxieties, incapabilities, needs and benefits that your idea or proposal addresses/delivers, and stop. Leave it to the audience to connect the dots and conclude for themselves that your idea or proposal is a good idea (and let them say it so it becomes to some extent their idea or proposal!) – don’t hit them over the head by saying it yourself. If they don’t respond (either immediately, or in the case of more cautious or discreet ‘customers’ reasonably soon afterwards), draw them out by asking questions about how they think their anxieties, incapabilities, needs or desired benefits might be addressed/delivered. If your idea/proposal meets those criteria, then they’re probably sold on it – ask them to approve it. If they offer some very different solution, you haven’t sold them, and it’s time to go back to the drawing board.

I’m just in the process of trying this out for the first time. I’m being subtle (not using the terms anxieties, incapabilities*, needs and benefits in my pitch) because I don’t want my audience to feel manipulated. And because I have different audiences I’m preparing several ‘flavours’ of the pitch with different emphases. I’ll let you know how it turns out. Has anyone else used this four-pronged technique? Anyone know whoinvented it?

* I know this isn’t a real word. It should be, though.

Posted in Working Smarter | 5 Comments

Principles of Knowledge Management (for organizations with no KM resources)

PKM Enabled Organization
I‘ve written a lot about Knowledge Management (KM), and recently especially about a revolutionary bottom-up approach called Personal Knowledge Management (PKM). The recommendations in my articles for instituting KM or PKM in your organization (processes, infrastructure etc.) assume, however, that you actually have an ongoing budget and full-time, permanent people to support your KM initiatives.

I’ve discovered, however, that many organizations have neither budget nor people specifically earmarked for KM activities. In fact, organizations whose IT people are principally project-focused, and which expect IT (or learning/HR) to look after KM matters, really have no way of adopting any of my KM recommendations because once the project is finished and the IT tool “launched”, the only ongoing operational people they can call on are in the help desk. And those people rarely know anything about KM.
 
So I thought it might be useful to develop a set of KM principles that can be considered at the design stage of any project, so the major KM landmines can be avoided. I’ve come up with these 16, which I think are the most critical. For each, I’m aware of at least one case where ignorance of the principle, or failure to consider it appropriately, has caused considerable grief to an organization:

The Objective of Knowledge Management (what drives these principles):

To enable users/customers to obtain critical and relevant context-rich information, and to connect and collaborate with experts and colleagues, easily and promptly, so that they can be more effective performing their jobs.

Information Content Principles:

  1. Content acquired and maintained should be driven by need, not availability: The information systems should obtain and accommodate information content that is needed – i.e. crucial to the performance of people’s jobs – rather than information content that happens to be available (notably newsletters, manuals and other content that was previously maintained or routed manually or by e-mail). There is a tendency to use information systems to house content that has been acquired that no one is quite sure where to put. As a consequence, most ‘knowledge repositories’ are cluttered with documents, messages and data that serve no critical need and simply get in the way of finding the information that is critical. Some organizations now spend almost as much effort in ‘content rationalization’ (getting junk out of repositories) as they do in content creation.
  2. Content needs should be those determined by users/customers, not suppliers/managers: As a corollary of the above, what is crucial should be determined by the users/customers of the information systems, not by the suppliers of information. This requires a program of continuous outreach to users/customers – a process of observation and ‘customer anthropology’ that enables the content architect to understand what information is needed by different constituencies of customer, and how it is used. In the absence of such continuous programs, at least a series of upfront interviews and surveys of different segments of users/customers should be undertaken to ascertain what their crucial information needs are. Otherwise, what gets stored in information system is the stuff that suppliers need a place to store – and that is rarely the content that has critical value.
  3. Content management systems should focus on personal content management and group self-management of content: Many studies of information systems have discovered that users/customers are unable to use knowledge and technology resources available at their own desktop effectively. Yet most content management systems focus on teaching users/customers how to use centralized repositories and tools, rather than how to organize and index the content on their hard drive, how to subscribe to and publish their content, and how to find it later – and, for collaborative groups, how to take responsibility and authority to self-manage their collective content and work-product in collaborative work-spaces.
  4. Information systems should enable and capture conversations: The reason face-to-face and telephone conversations are still the principal means of knowledge transfer in virtually all organizations is that they are effective – they allow quick, iterative, context-rich learning in a way that impersonal and asynchronous methods cannot match. The best information systems encourage conversations by making them easier to set up (see principle 12 below), and by capturing and sharing their critical content (by recording the conversation or by distilling its decisions, information, agreements and actions using a mindmap or other tool, and ‘publishing’ the result).
  5. Information management tools should be simple and intuitive to use: That often requires sacrificing power and functionality, but it has the advantages of obviating the need for training (that no one has time for anyway, leading to misuse or underutilization of many tools), making it easier to change as requirements change, and reducing development and maintenance cost and development time (many tools are commercially available and many of these are free). Often, if there is no simple, intuitive tool available to satisfy an information need, the best answer is not to introduce a tool at all, and use the existing, manual information process instead.
  6. Needs analyses should consider the ‘cost of not knowing’, not just the cost of knowledge: Although most of an organization’s information needs are best determined by interviewing and observing front-line users/customers, someone in the organization (perhaps someone in risk management) should also be assigned to look holistically at the cost of potential knowledge failures – what it would cost the organization (lost revenues, compensation for damages, damage to reputation etc.) if it failed to acquire, understand and communicate critical information (such as information on a competitor’s revolutionary product, or information about a critical weakness in the organization’s processes that could expose the company to major litigation or business interruption). Enron’s collapse, the extent of devastation from hurricanes and epidemics, and 9/11 were all consequences of ‘knowledge failures’ with astronomical ‘costs of not knowing’ that could have been prevented with an appropriate investment in knowledge.

Information Context & Organization Principles:

  1. Related content should be linked and stored together: Documents, messages and data that are related should be kept together (physically or at least virtually through virtual copies and links) to provide users/customers with as much context as possible about the information they contain. An overview of how the content is connected should also be prepared and maintained, using either a meta-abstract or an index or table of contents. Most document repositories, unfortunately, require ‘submitting’ isolated documents to centralized repositories, so the context for the document is quickly lost. If there is no one assigned to manage content to ensure related information stays connected, it may make more sense to leave the content on the hard drive of the author (where it is likely to be organized in folders with related information) and allow customers seeking it to canvass it (see principle 9 below).
  2. The indexing of content should be self-managed by its authors and users, using folksonomy and taskonomy, not imposed taxonomy: The use of folksonomies (where authors and users choose their own tags for content, and over time converge on agreed-upon, but ever-evolving tags) and taskonomies (where content is indexed/tagged by how it is most likely to be used by others, rather than by subject matter) often seems anarchic and inefficient to managers and lovers of taxonomy. However, taxonomies are rarely ideal for all or even most users and are hard to change, and they must be built and maintained, sometimes at great cost. Although there is a (self-)learning curve to folksonomies and taskonomies, once that curve is overcome these means of indexing are more effective and (because they are self-managed) easier to change and cheaper to maintain.
  3. Content should be ‘pulled’ from where it naturally resides, just in time, rather than ‘pushed’ to central repositories just in case: Most people are too busy to contribute, and insufficiently rewarded for contributing, information to centralized repositories, especially when this requires indexing and abstracting. There is also a natural risk-aversion to contributing specialized information that might be misused by others lacking the skills or context to use it appropriately. By leaving it on the site of the author or group that ‘owns’ it, and putting in place canvassing systems that can locate and retrieve this information, in context, on a just in time basis, all these obstacles are overcome. The use of weblogs or other simple personal workspaces where each user can collect and manage their personal shareable content can also help in this process. Where security or risk of misuse is an issue, a permissioning system can be used to restrict access to certain documents, messages and data, or to allow users to learn of the existence of relevant information but only access it with the explicit real-time permission of the author(s). This can be as simple as putting a process in place on each user’s PC that asks the users/customers, whenever they store or send a document, message or data, which people or groups it may be made available to, and then harvesting the information and the related permissions on a regular basis to create a centralized copy, or canvassing all users’ hard drives on a just in time basis using standard search templates, subject to that permissioning, to respond to searches for information in real time.
  4. Information should be provided in the context of existing business processes, not as something apart from them: Much of the information that is sent to and made available to people (notably that contained in e-mails) is outside the context of what people do in their jobs and disconnected from the systems and processes they use to do them. That means that they need to ‘set aside’ their regular work to process this information. To the extent that information can be embedded within the systems and processes people use regularly, that information becomes an enabler of work effectiveness instead of a distraction from it.
  5. Information processes should encourage users to add value and meaning to ‘raw’ information: Much of what users/customers do with raw information is digest, synthesize, distil and interpret it, but the value they add by doing so is often not captured and shared with others. Weblogs and other simple personal workspaces can encourage and enable users to record and share their interpretations and insights. Librarians and other information professionals can be trained to do this as well, using visualizations, systems thinking, ‘pyramid principle’ analysis, story-telling and other techniques to make information easier to digest and grasp and more meaningful, rather than just ‘ripping and shipping’ raw data to others in the organization.

Connectivity & Collaboration Principles:

  1. Information systems should enable users/customers to find needed experts and connect with them expediently: The most significant KM challenge in most organizations is not finding content, but finding expertise – who in the organization, or even outside the organization, knows more than anyone else about a particular subject. The need to find experts is often urgent, resulting in lots of time wasted hurriedly following chains of suggestions on “who might know about that” until the right person is identified, and then telephone tag connecting with them. Information systems that simplify the identification of experts, help users discover the most effective way to contact these experts (including using new technologies like presence-detection), connecting with them through various simple, intuitive, real-time virtual presence tools, and scheduling appointments with them, can offer an enormous ROI.
  2. Subscription and publishing processes should be primarily self-managed and peer-to-peer, not top-down managed: RSS and other new standard technologies make it much easier to establish mechanisms for sharing information simply, peer-to-peer, both within and between organizations. Centrally-managed “pub-and-sub” systems require more maintenance and training than straightforward tools that enable individual users to publish their information content to those they think would find it valuable (and they probably know best) and to subscribe to others’ information that they find valuable. A large amount of organizational e-mail is currently used for ad hoc peer-to-peer publishing, because it’s simple and meets a critical need, but this is not an effective use of e-mail. The best mechanisms make publishing as easy and intuitive as putting a document in an out-basket, and subscribing as easy as adding your name to a sign-up sheet – the manual processes that “pub-and-sub” supplant.
  3. Connectivity and collaboration (including e-learning) tools should be simple and intuitive to use: [This principle is directly analogous to principle 5 above.] This often requires sacrificing power and functionality, but it has the advantages of obviating the need for training (that no one has time for anyway, leading to misuse or underutilization of many tools), making it easier to change as requirements change, and reducing development and maintenance cost and development time (many collaboration tools, such as wikis and Basecamp are commercially available and many of these are free). Often, if there is no simple, intuitive tool available to satisfy an information need, the best answer is not to introduce a tool at all, and use the existing, face-to-face connectivity or collaboration process or another face-to-face process like Open Space instead.
  4. Information systems should draw on the collective intelligence of employees and customers: The majority of KM systems are internally focused on capturing data from the front lines for management, and communicating instructions from management back down to the front lines. Such systems fail to capitalize on one of the organization’s greatest assets – the collective wisdom of its employees and customers. Tapping this ‘wisdom of crowds’ requires mechanisms to communicate the organization’s most pressing business problems and management’s information needs out to the front lines and to customers, and then canvass or survey these employees and customers to capture, in a focused way, the information, ideas and awareness that they can bring to bear to address those problems and needs. This is a world apart from the collection of customer data and the customer satisfaction surveys that most organizations use – it requires candour, trust, an ability to ‘qualify’ respondents, and careful wording of the questions posed to the ‘crowd’. But the insights and knowledge that can be gleaned from such an investment – and the employee and customer satisfaction that comes from engaging these stakeholder groups in the organization’s decision-making processes – is immeasurable.

Knowledge Behaviour & Culture Principle:

  1. Information systems should adapt themselves to the organization’s culture and information behaviours, not try to change them: Many organizations have learned the hard way that social systems are complex systems and culture and behaviours change very slowly and only when they must, not just because it is a good idea. Human beings have a way of resisting changes, and also finding workarounds when the processes and tools they are prescribed don’t do the job. It’s essential to understand and accommodate those workarounds in the design of information systems, rather than trying to impose new systems on users/customers who have already discovered or invented something that works – such impositions will inevitably be resisted. Likewise, repositories, tools and spaces will only be adopted if they respond to a critical need that is not already being addressed by existing systems and processes – even if the boss mandates their use. Many organizations (especially large ones) also deal with dysfunctional information behaviours caused by inappropriate processes (especially reward processes), office politics, lack of awareness, and faulty sense-making skills. Ignore or try to change those behaviours at your peril. It’s essential to know which behaviours are at work in your organization, and what the organization’s ‘knowledge-sharing culture’ is, and why, and then adapt information systems, processes, and tools to accommodate the behaviours and culture, rather than trying to change the behaviours and culture through executive mandate, or coercive or reward systems.

I’ve spoken to a couple of people about this, and they say this list of principles is not only useful as a KM effectiveness guide for IT projects and learning programs, but can also be used as a ‘scorecard’ on the effectiveness of the organization’s KM programs, by scoring your organization on the degree to which existing processes adhere to each of these principles. The organizations I know best don’t score verywell, especially on principles 6, 9, 13 and 15.

How would you score your organization?

Posted in Working Smarter | 3 Comments

Carnival of the Green #50


elephants
I‘m delighted to have the honour of hosting the 50th edition of the weekly Carnival of the Green, a multi-authored round-up of the past week’s news and ideas on the environment and sustainability. The Carnival was founded and is managed by City Hippy and Triple Pundit, and you can find out all about it (and where it will be hosted in future) at their sites. Last week’s carnival was hosted by Total Tactics, and next week’s will be hosted by Groovy Green. If you have submissions for the Carnival, send them to carnivalofgreen (at) gmail (dot) com.

Biofuels Not The Answer: The near impossibility of finding easy oil these days doesn’t stop oil companies from literally looking between a rock and hard place to extract it–with dire costs for the environment. Elsa at the greener side reports from a panel of green thinkers who tout biofuels as the answer. But is there enough will to pave the way for cleaner fuel on a massive scale? Experts say time is running out. Elsa’s article also provides more grim news on the environmental holocaust being created in Alberta by tar sands development.

Hydrogen Not the Answer, Either: Pablo at TriplePundit explains that, despite interesting developments by EEStor in hydrogen storage, the ‘hydrogen economy’ still faces large technology problems and infrastructure ramp-up challenges before it can become a reality.

When ‘Off’ is Not Off: Penny Nickel at Money and Values explains how unplugging appliances saves money and cuts pollution. Just turning off appliances that operate in ‘standby’ mode can consume 40% of the energy they consume when they’re ‘on’. So follow Penny’s advice and plug ’em all into a power strip with surge protection and then turn the power strip off.

Dealing with Environmentalists by Merging Them with Non-Environmentalists: Lancashire England’s Save the Ribble river group is justifiably worried that a move to merge the South Ribble Borough council with the Preston City Council will drown out environmental voices in the former in favour of the louder pro-development voices of the latter.

Killing the Antarctic Ecosystem to Feed Fish Farms: Kara Davis points to an article by Alexandra Cousteau at EarthEcho about aquaculture, the growing demand for krill, and what that means for penguins, seals and whales. ‘Factory trawlers’ in the Antarctic are sucking up huge amounts of krill as feed for fish farms, depleting whole areas of the Antarctic of a key animal in the ecosystem, and threatening everything in the food chain above it.

Getting Your Omega-3 Without Mercury, and Without Eating Fish: Biologist Sally Kneidel at Veggie Revolution considers this week’s new article in the Journal of the American Medical Association about mercury in fish.  Is it safe to eat?  Where does mercury come from?  And what are modern fishing fleets doing to our oceans?  The post includes links to sites that evaluate which fish are safest to eat, for health and for ecosystems.

Finding Diamonds Without Blood: Elisa at Hip & Zen just got engaged (congratulations!) and then got conflicted about the source of diamonds and other ingredients of her engagement ring. The story has a happy ending as an ethical jeweler was found.

Altria/Kraft Tries to Greenwash Their Coffee: Coffee & Conservation analyzes the new Yuban campaign, claiming to be Green by meeting the Rainforest Alliance’s minimum standard (30% RA-certified beans). But 30% is far short of 100%, and RA-certified is far short of Fair Trade, and the other 70% of this not-so-green product is who-knows-what from who-knows-where produced who-knows-how. Not good enough.

Seventh Generation Embraces Systems Thinking and Biomimicry: In an interview in Treehugger, Gregor Barnum, director at Seventh Generation (natural household products and cleaners producer) explains how they’ve adopted Otto Scharmer’s Presencing U and the principles of Biomimicry in product design and innovation.

An Environmentally Friendly University: Vihar at GreenRising describes the changes that Washington University (St. Louis) has made to lower its ecological footprint, reduce pollution, and conserve energy using solar sources.

Vote Yes on California Prop 87: Sludgie describes the vociferous and well-financed opposition to this proposition — which would tax energy consumption to fund renewable energy research — by Big Oil and other right-wing groups.

Flies Bad, CO2 Not So Much: David Ng at SCQ draws a whimsical analogy between flies and CO2, and contrasts public sentiment towards the two.

PVC Really Bad: PT at Why Travel to France explains all the reasons — dioxins produced in manufacture, carcinogenic effect, bioaccumulation, toxic additives, and prevalence in construction of homes and offices — why we should stop using PVC and mandate use of any of the many safer alternatives available.

Recycling Leaves, and Paper: Aaron at GroovyGreen tells you why you should mulch or compost your leaves instead of bagging them for removal, and Steve tells you how to make your workplace greener by reducing, reusing and recycling paper, and bringing in your own mug instead of using styrofoam.

…and Recycling Plastic Bags, Too: Nina at Queercents has researched what we can all do with the mountain of plastic bags we get from grocery and other stores.

Two Views on Elephants Driven to Madness: Josh Rosenau at Thoughts from Kansas comments on the NY Times Magazine article about the violence being perpetrated by elephants due to stress and social breakdown. He likens their behaviour to that of suicide bombers, and describes it as entirely rational, not psychotic behaviour. I agree with the analogy, but in my article earlier this week I ascribed the behaviour to the reaction of all creatures to extreme population stress (in this case due to reduction in their habitat). While Josh thinks neither the elephants nor suicide bombers are ‘crazy’, I think they both are, and for very similar reasons.

Is God Green?: The Evangelical Ecologist is tracking the responses from various religious groups and viewers to Bill Moyers’ PBS program on the Green movement in US religious circles. Grist is also following, and expanding, the debate. The Evangelical Ecologist also links to the Conservation Fund’s Carbon Zero Calculator.

Ten Ways to Take Better Care of the Land: My own contribution to this week’s Carnival summarizes the results of a seminar on effective land stewardship put on by our local conservation authorities.

Thanks to all the Carnival regulars and guests for the submissions, which make the host’s job easy.

And for new visitors to How to Save the World, if you’re just interested in my articles on the environment and sustainability (and not all my other ramblings on business, politics etc.), please bookmark this category page and come back and visit often!

Posted in Collapse Watch | 7 Comments