Who Will Be [formerly: Will Elon Musk Be] Trump’s Running Mate in 2024?

OK, I’ll admit it — I didn’t know that US citizens who weren’t born in the US cannot legally become VP of the country. I’m leaving the previously-written article intact at the bottom of this post, but adding, up front, some new speculations on who will be running in 2024.

image by Gage Skidmore CC-BY SA 2.0

Once more with humbled gusto:

What awful choices might Americans be facing in 2024?

Here’s how I think it might play out:

1. DeSantis holds off publicly running for the nomination, saving up his money and waiting for Trump to self-destruct. Meanwhile, the polls show he would be favoured to win the 2024 election, while Trump would not.
2. Biden remains the Democratic nominee by default. Meanwhile the polls show he would lose to DeSantis but beat Trump. With DeSantis gaining in the polls, the Democrats realize they have to jettison Biden or they’ll lose.
3. The fight between Trump and DeSantis gets really nasty, as these two men both have Messiah complexes and their own personal success is really all that’s important to them — their party be damned. How much will this damage the party, as partisans for each threaten to boycott the polls if the other megalomaniac wins? If it comes down to cult-of-celebrity personalities to the point policies don’t matter, a lot of Republicans might just sit on their hands on election night. On the other hand, the two candidates, thus far at least, have absolutely no discernible differences in platforms or ideology (though Trump will change positions on a dime if he thinks it will get him elected). My sense is that the rift will be substantial and bitter.
4. The Democrats quietly persuade Biden not to run, citing his health or whatever. They then nominate Anyone-But-Biden(-or-Sanders-or-Clinton) (ABB). The polls now show DeSantis slightly trailing ABB.
5. This finally gives Trump an opening if he can differentiate himself enough from DeSantis, or attract a credible celebrity running mate.

Who would the Democrats nominate if Biden withdraws? The experts say Kamala Harris (despite her very low profile as VP) and Pete Buttigieg are most likely, and that Michelle Obama won’t run. Mike Bloomberg still has the money and ambition to run, and was the choice of wealthy right-wing Democrats last time, but he was kind of stained in his last outing. Of course, the Democrats won’t allow AOC to win the nomination, even after she abandoned her progressive principles to join the Ukraine warmongers. Amy Klobuchar is given a lot of nods as a moderate on the progressive side of social issues, though like Biden she is a war-monger, especially against Russia. Elizabeth Warren is considered too progressive to win over independents and says she’s running for Senator again in 2024 anyway. And Gavin Newsom might win the nomination, but would almost certainly lose the election just for being the governor of “scary, socialist” California.

My sense is that Kamala Harris will be persuaded to wait another four years, once polls show she is just not enough of a celebrity to win in a US election. So barring a dark horse — Raphael Warnock? Cory Booker? Some bland not-too-old white Senator/Governor? — I think the most likely winners of the ABB stakes are (1) Pete Buttigieg, (2) Amy Klobuchar, or (3) Gavin Newsom. I think Raphael Warnock would be an intriguing running mate for any of them.

I can envision Buttigieg or Klobuchar leading either Trump or DeSantis in the polls through next year, especially if, as I think is inevitable, the battle between the two Republican egotists gets bloody. Who might be the Republican VP nominee that might overcome the deficit? Elise Stefanik is a staunch Trump supporter from NY, an easy choice but not probably exciting enough to overcome DeSantis. Nor is Kari Lake, loser in the Arizona governor’s race and another big Trump supporter.

Trump would need to land a heavyweight, and although he has lots of Hollywood and sports celebrities to choose from, most of them have even less gravitas than Trump, if that’s imaginable.

DeSantis might pick Chris Sununu from NH as a VP, or, if he was wiser and she was not, he might pick Nikki Haley. Or even, if they decided not to run themselves, Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott, playing the long game.

So if Trump is going to get a chance to beat DeSantis and try to top ABB, he’s probably going to have to differentiate himself on policy. He’s so flighty that I think he’s likely to try that. Consider that by 2024 we’ll have had two more years of wars in Ukraine and probably in Taiwan and who knows where else under Biden.

I think there’s a chance that the extravagant waste of lives and trillions of dollars being spent war-mongering might just grow to be annoying to struggling Americans of all stripes. If Trump came out as an “end-the-wars, refocus on our domestic priorities” candidate, it just might be a winner.

In the final analysis, there are so many permutations and combinations that I might as well go all-in and make a prediction, knowing that the chance of it being right is very remote:

1. If DeSantis can beat Trump and convince Nikki Haley to be his VP, I think he’ll win in 2024 regardless of the Democratic nominee.
2. If Trump picks a strategy that plays on war-weariness and shifting spending to domestic priorities, and is able to use that to beat DeSantis in the primary (not at all a sure bet), I think he could then beat any Democratic opponent except Buttigieg or Klobuchar.
3. If Biden insists on running again, I think he’ll lose to DeSantis, regardless of running mates, but could beat Trump if Trump sticks with his existing schtick. Yeesh.
4. If Buttigieg or Klobuchar have a running mate of the calibre of Warnock, I think they could beat any Republican slate other than DeSantis/Haley.

And, as I said before: Since both parties are completely owned by their corporate overlords, it really doesn’t matter much who the nominees are or who wins. Americans will do what they always do now when it’s time to vote, which is to hold their noses and vote against the most awful choice. But it’s fun to speculate on who the awful choices will be in two years.

Original article below:

Yeah, yeah, millions of words have been written about the feuds between these two belligerent, megalomanic pea-brains. But come on — they’re two peas in a pod. They agree on almost everything. They’re both staggeringly rich (for now) right-wingers facing a precipitous decline. They both feed on publicity, and don’t particularly care if it’s negative. With both their stars (reputational and financial) in free-fall, they need each other. And while Elon has recently said he’s backing Ron DeSantis for president, he’s also claimed to have supported Democrats in almost every election. Know who else is willing to jump whichever way the wind seems to be blowing? Yeah, guy in the left photo there.

So here’s how I think it might go down:

1. DeSantis holds off publicly running for the nomination, saving up his money and waiting for Trump to self-destruct. Meanwhile, the polls show he would be favoured to win the 2024 election, while Trump would not.
2. Biden remains the Democratic nominee by default. Meanwhile the polls show he would lose to DeSantis but beat Trump. With DeSantis gaining in the polls, the Democrats realize they have to jettison Biden or they’ll lose.
3. Musk quietly approaches DeSantis with the idea of becoming his running mate. DeSantis blows him off, not wanting to play with dynamite. In the meantime, both Twitter and Musk’s massively-subsidized business ventures are tanking, as investors pull the plug on their never-ending losses. Trump and Musk are both in deep financial trouble — potentially becoming the two biggest business failures in the history of civilization.
4. The Democrats quietly persuade Biden not to run, citing his health or whatever. They then nominate Anyone-But-Biden(-or-Sanders-or-Clinton) (ABB). The polls now show DeSantis slightly trailing ABB.
5. This finally gives Trump an opening if he can attract a celebrity running mate. He approaches Musk, who can’t resist.

I’m not saying they would win. Money goes a long way in US politics, to be sure. And the US also has a cult of celebrity. Would they beat DeSantis for the nomination? Depends on whether the polls say they would or would not beat ABB. Would they beat ABB? I don’t know. I suspect not. But I wouldn’t put it past the bumbling Democrats to nominate another poor candidate, in which case, all bets are off.

Who would the Democrats nominate if Biden withdraws? The experts say Kamala Harris (despite her very low profile as VP) and Pete Buttigieg are most likely, and that Michelle Obama won’t run. Mike Bloomberg still has the money and ambition to run, and was the choice of wealthy right-wing Democrats last time. Of course, they won’t allow AOC to win the nomination, even after she abandoned her progressive principles to join the Ukraine warmongers.

Since both parties are completely owned by their corporate overlords, it really doesn’t matter much who the nominees are or who wins. Americans will do what they always do now when it’s time to vote, which is to hold their noses and vote against the most awful choice. But it’s fun to speculate on who the awful choices will be in two years.