Saturday Links for the Week — July 7, 2007 — Pledge Edition

barefoot
Photo of barefoot hikers for the NYT by Allen Brisson-Smith

Taking the Pledge:

Moving Beyond Kyoto: Al Gore makes the tough task ahead plain.

Live Earth’s 7-point pledge on the climate crisis

  • To demand that my country join an international treaty within the next 2 years that cuts global warming pollution by 90% in developed countries and by more than half worldwide in time for the next generation to inherit a healthy earth;
  • To take personal action to help solve the climate crisis by reducing my own CO2 pollution as much as I can and offsetting the rest to become “carbon neutral”;
  • To fight for a moratorium on the construction of any new generating facility that burns coal without the capacity to safely trap and store the CO2;
  • To work for a dramatic increase in the energy efficiency of my home, workplace, school, place of worship, and means of transportation;
  • To fight for laws and policies that expand the use of renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on oil and coal;
  • To plant new trees and to join with others in preserving and protecting forests; and,
  • To buy from businesses and support leaders who share my commitment to solving the climate crisis and building a sustainable, just, and prosperous world for the 21st century.

And why the pledge wasn’t necessary in the 1620s: The BBC explains why community-based living, eating local foods, recycling and wearing those funny clothes made sense then, and still does today. Thanks to Chris Brainard for the link.

I’m an expert all of a sudden: Foreign Policy magazine kindly acknowledges this blog as a deep-thinking look at what the future holds. Thanks to Keith Robinson for the link.

Et Le Devoir est d’accord avec moi: A French-language editorial in Le Devoir says essentially what I did in my article on the National Day of Action. Merci ý Martin-Šric Racine for the catch.

Thoughts for the Week: What if there’s a sudden stock market crash? A fascinating 10-year old story from WaPo (when the market had surged to half today’s level) explains how the government has reacted to huge stock market drops in past, and what they would do if it happened today. Thanks to Dale Asberry for the link.

Are we meant to walk barefoot, like a fox? Jason Godesky explains the natural, integrative way to walk, and why shoes are an abomination that hurt our posture, our agility, ourwalking/running stamina and our health.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 5 Comments

Know Your Place

pool 1
The other evening, after doing some yard work, and finding myself alone, I sat cross-legged on the bench at the end of our deck (picture below) and looked back at the house (picture above) and just thought. 
pool 2
This is my place, I thought. Not in the sense that I own it. Not in the sense that it represents my station in life. But in the sense that I belong to it. I am a part of it. This mostly-wild area, with the kettle pond that goes green with algae in the summer, to the delight of the beavers and ducks and spring peeper frogs and herons. With the place I mow, where I run three times a week, winter and summer, that the geese, and the raccoons, and the red foxes, and wild turkeys, and rabbits, and my little friend puc puc, all love. With the gardens and walkways my wife tends with loving care, and the plants that grow wild. With the myriad of tiny wild creatures. The family members and great neighbours who drop by. The astonishing change of seasons. The stunning sunrises and sunsets. And the birds at the feeder, of course. I am a part of all this, my place, the place I belong.

And as I sat there listening to the frogs and watching a bat skimming the surface of the pool looking for insects, and breathing slowly and deeply, I realized that the reason the birds and animals have become so tame around me is not a Gaia connection but the fact that my smell is now a part of this place, from running around sweating, from lying in the grass, from constantly repairing the bird feeders after squirrel and raccoon deconstruction. The wild creatures recognize me as belonging to this place, which is their place, too.

While I always used to want to travel, now I’m more than content to spend my leisure time, my time for discovery and contemplation, in my place. As I become more attentive, I’ve learned that this place still has a million mysteries to show me. The work I do in this place is never a chore — mowing the lawn, power-washing the decks, vacuuming the pool, and my 5k runs, are all forms of meditation, relaxation, connection. And despite all the time I spend out in my place, I am always discovering new and astonishing creatures, noticing things I’d never noticed before.

I imagine this place as it was before humans arrived. It is moraine land, and what grew here 40,000 years ago before the last ice age, and 20,000 years ago when the ice retreated again, and even 5,000 and 2,000 years ago, and what grows here now are very different. But somehow it is still the same place. The trees and plants and creatures, including me, that now belong to this place were meant to be here, we chose this place, together, as our home.

When I speak to people who have lived their entire lives in the city, they can’t understand this, though I get indulgent smiles from them. And I know people who live in this paradise who still see it as just a lot of work, as something to improve, to keep ‘up’.

Wilderland. Wonderland. I wish everyone could find it, feel it. Know their place.Belong to it, and through it, belong to all-life-on-Earth.

If everyone knew, maybe it wouldn’t be too late.

Posted in Collapse Watch | 8 Comments

Olbermann Calls on Bush, Cheney to Resign

Olbermann
This is brilliant, moving, and well researched. Just go watch.
Posted in How the World Really Works | 1 Comment

Learning to Learn

Capacities for complexity
My model of capacities needed to cope with complexity

Nobel chemist and pioneer complexity expert Ilya Prigogine is cited by my friend Andrew Campbell as saying that nature has no secrets — everything we want or need to know in the world is waiting to be discovered. That means it is waiting for us to be ready to learn it, which presupposes that we have:

  • Capacity to understand: That’s not just a function of brain capacity, but also the ability to pay attention and to be open to new ideas and possibilities, and to imagine;
  • Need to understand: Either an urgent adaptive/survival need, or intellectual curiosity to discover; and
  • Tools to understand: The toolkit with which we were endowed by nature is comparatively poor (consider our relatively feeble eyesight, dim sense of smell, slow speed and inability to fly), but we have compensated for it with our ingenuity, especially at biomimicry — inventing new tools that mimic the best nature provides.

We have a need to understand — the challenges we face as a society have never been greater. And although our man-made tools are fragile and clumsy by nature’s standards, they give us what we need.

What we are lacking, I think, is capacity. Despite (or perhaps because of) our large brains we are inattentive, prone to erroneous prejudgement, distrustful of our intuitions and our subconscious knowledge, and we suffer from dreadful and growing imaginative poverty. We are seemingly unable to grasp complex issues and concepts well — we are so left-brain heavy that we over-analyze and over-simplify, and we are driven (I suspect because of our increasingly poor learning habits) to create mechanistic, complicated explanations for organic, complex phenomena. Then, when these explanations fail, we add further levels of complication, until we have thirteen-dimensional universes with vibrating strings.

We try to deduce when we should induce. We analyze when we should be synthesizing. We look for root causes when we should be looking for patterns. We try to impose order when we should let it emerge and study why it emerged as it did. We try to change and control our environments when we should change ourselves to adapt to them.

So what we should do now is build our capacity to understand — capacity of attentiveness, openness, imagination, intuition, subconscious awareness, appreciation of complexity, ability to learn and intuit and induce and synthesize and see patterns and adapt and let come and let go. And then show others in our communities why this capacity is so important and help engender it in them, too.

Then we will be ready, together, to discover what nature has been waiting to show us and tell us. No grand unifying theory of everything — just an understanding of how the world really works, and why our current way of living is unsustainable, unhealthy and unnatural. And what to do tomake it better.

Category: Let-Self-Change
Posted in Collapse Watch | 4 Comments

On Open and Closed Communities, and the Ephemeral Nature of Networks

SNA2
There’s an interesting discussion going on in one of the KM forums I belong to about the nature of community, how it differs from a network, and the perils and advantages of ‘open’ vs ‘closed’ communities.

If you look at the origins of the words ‘community’ and ‘network’, neither describes a group of people. A community is defined as a place shared equally . Each sharer is a ‘member’ (= a part, in the sense of both distinct and co-dependent, belonging). Implicit to the concept of community is deep mutual love and trust. A network is actually a fabrication of knots (nodes) designed to trap, rather than connect. Our use of the term to describe n-to-n connectedness of a group of people through multiple degrees of separation is novel, I suspect because such connection does not occur in nature. That’s not to say nature is hierarchical — it is, rather, organic (= instrumental, ‘how things are done’). Communities and organisms are ‘tight’ and integrated, while networks, as we now use the term to describe certain groups of people, are ‘loose’ and confederated (= in treaty together).
These definitions put the lie to the hierarchical corporate wishful thinking behind formally defined ‘communities of practice’ (practice = to become capable) and ‘organizations’, as the former are not communities and the latter are not organic. Likewise, the so-called neighbourhood ‘communities’ in which we live are settlements of convenience, groups of houses, not communities at all. Those with wealth and power consistently misuse these terms, perhaps in the hope that if you lie to people often and long enough they’ll start to believe it’s the truth.
Real, self-selected and self-managed peer-to-peer communities of practice do exist impromptu in and between corporations and other hierarchical constructs, principally to work around the inherent dysfunctions of these constructs. They are antithetic to the power structure of the hierarchy, but they are tolerated because they work and prevent the hierarchy from seizing up entirely ( e.g. in a true hierarchy, bad news never travels up, so management is always oblivious to what’s wrong, and consequently usually makes poor, uninformed decisions). And so we muddle along.
What management establishes as ‘communities’ are in fact workteams (= pairs of livestock) and workgroups (collections of individuals assigned to work on a common task). Since they have no self-chosen bond of membership, they are not authentic communities.

The de facto authentic communities in corporations (and in our society as a whole), being self-selected, are ‘open’ or ‘closed’ at the discretion of their current members. Whether or not they are more effective if they are mostly open or mostly closed depends on the nature and purpose of the (real or virtual) “place they share”. They may choose to admit new members if they are too small or lack diversity (if diversity is something they perceive they need and want). They may be closed if they are happy (rightly or wrongly) with their current membership.

The danger of an ‘open’ community is that, if there is no scrutiny of and agreement on membership, it can become unwieldy or unable to pursue its purpose. When intimate knowledge of the other members is lost, with it goes the love and trust that are essential to its existence. It then ceases to be a real community at all, and just becomes a group of people with some affinity, a ‘club’ (= thick mass).
The danger of a ‘closed’ community is that it can become a cult, an isolated echo chamber whose cohesiveness depends more on what members hate or distrust about ‘outsiders’ than about love and trust and common purpose of its members. It can also become a hierarchy, dominated by a few members who exploit that isolation and distrust, and hence no longer in any sense “a place shared equally”.

So a community that becomes too open or too closed ceases to be a community. You can’t prevent this from happening. Communities are complex dynamic entities and they evolve. When communities cease to be of value to their members those members withdraw and/or the community collectively disbands.
What about ‘networks’, then? If we were to be honest, most of us (except perhaps for aboriginals and those living in intentional communities) are probably members of just a few small real communities, or even none at all (This absence of community probably accounts for the emergence of the family as the principal, improbable, unit of social cohesion in our modern society). But we are all ‘members’ of ‘networks’, right? We have hundreds or thousands of names in our address book, our rolodex, our club roster, our ‘friends’ lists (and now some social software even allows us to select ‘top friends’ — hierarchical communities!)
We all want to belong. And given how fragmented our society has become, there is no question of the importance of the ‘weak ties’ that ‘networks’ offer: They are probably the means through which we will get our next job, find our spouse, and make some of the most critical decisions of our lives. They are comforting and useful. And when the small groups with which we make community fracture, these weak ties can sometimes become a ‘network’ in the true sense — they can catch us when we fall.
Unlike communities, which are held together by love and by place, these ‘networks’ are really just ordered lists of people who may provide us with future opportunity or insight (and in return, we invest in them to provide opportunities and insights to the people in them). But they are largely illusory — my guess is that many of the people we consider to be in our networks do not consider themselves so, and many others who consider themselves part of our networks are not to be found in our lists. If it is not perceived to be such reciprocally, then, how can it be considered in any sense a ‘network’?
This is perhaps why there is no long-standing English word for such a vast list of fragile connections — it is not something that occurs in nature, but is rather an artifact of our modern, socially fractured (yet technologically enabled) civilization. People in our ‘network’ are not even ‘acquaintances’ (that word means literally to know perfectly).
The implications of all this for those in IT or KM in large corporations:
  • We shouldn’t try to ‘establish’ communities in workplaces. We need to recognize authentic communities where they have emerged, understand that they are inherently subversive (and probably not looking for a lot of publicity), and, if we’re in IT or KM, show them how our (simple, intuitive) products and services can help them work peer-to-peer around the dysfunctions of the workplace. We should not expect a lot of recognition for doing this, but if we do it right the communities will thank us.
  • We should recognize networks as the fragile, opportunistic creations they are. That means we should beware of mapping them, tapping them, or complicating them with over-engineered ‘social networking applications’. All most people really need or want is one simple-to-maintain and powerful annotated contact list. If we’re in IT or KM we need to give ’em that, in portable form.

There is still lots of other work for IT and KM people to do, at the individual, personal level, improving personal work effectiveness — helping people find information, make sense of it, and add value to it, to make better decisions, and to innovate more effectively.

The implications of all this, I think, for everyone:

  • We need to be careful of how much time and energy we invest in our ‘networks’. Better, I think, to invest most of that time in communities we belong to, and in finding new people we want to live with and make a living with in authentic community, and nourishing those communities. Otherwise we can easily spread ourselves too thin. Networks are potential, communities are kinetic, real. They do things.
  • When someone in our ‘network’ should be in our community, we instinctively know. I’ll bet you could easily pick out, from all your address books and contact lists of people in your ‘network’ you barely know, a half dozen or a dozen that you really want to know well, people you know you could love.
  • When one of our communities languishes, or gets too ‘open’ or too ‘closed’, we should let it go. Things happen for a reason, and nothing lasts forever. As Neil Young says, “it’s easy to get buried in the past when you try to make a good thing last”.

Posted in Working Smarter | 7 Comments

“Every Day is a Day of Action”


North
Winter / Night
White
Eagle: Strength and Pride
Bear: Earth Unity, Humility

West
Fall / Evening
Red
Dolphin: Connection, Friendship
Raven: The Messenger
compass
East
Spring / Morning
Yellow
Hawk: Recovery, Courage
Deer: Life’s Abundance

South
Summer / Afternoon
Blue
Owl: Wisdom, Intelligence
Snake: Sensitivity to Earth

The ignorant reaction of many Canadians to the First Nations’ National Day of Action last Friday was predictable and disgraceful: They insist the First Nations people are to blame for their own poverty. They say no Canadians deserve special status, and First Nations people should integrate into mainstream Canadian culture. They claim that the price paid when First Nations land was expropriated by the colonists was a fair price at the time, and should not be renegotiated now. They allege that First Nations’ record of self-government is a history of failure.

These arguments are so ignorant of the facts, and the worldview they reflect is so entrenched and so distorted, that it is pretty fruitless to debate it. If you don’t know the facts, and want to know them, Chris Corrigan has a brilliant summation of some important ones here, and the title of this post is a quote from his article.

The colonialist worldview pervades the majority affluent-nation perception of the plight of all struggling nations, not just the First ones, of the reasons for global poverty and why struggling nations are struggling. I grew up with the colonialist propaganda, the “occupier’s narrative”, and it took me half my life to realize it was all a lie. When I have urged those looking for models of sustainable Natural Communities to study the way of life of aboriginal peoples, I am accused of harboring romantic fantasies about the ‘noble savage‘. In truth they knew and know, and could still offer us if we were prepared to listen, a better way to live. They hold a mirror up to us so that we can reflect on our civilization’s terrible truths.

If I were among those directly afflicted by the genocide, paternalism, exploitation, theft and abuse committed every day by colonial invaders, in almost every nation on the planet, I would be consumed by rage. I salute Canada’s First Nations people for their extraordinary restraint, patience and tolerance, last Friday and every day they wake up to cope with the mess we have made of their land, their lives and theirculture. We should be ashamed of ourselves.

If we only knew what they know, we would join them in solidarity, and make every day, for all of us, a Day of Action.

Posted in How the World Really Works | 5 Comments

Sunday Open Thread – July 1, 2007

dragonWhat I’m thinking about, and planning on writing (and podcasting) about soon:

Freeing People from Neediness:
I’ve recently realized that, in my zeal to solve problems, to be useful to people, to be sociable, to be popular, to expand my communities and relationships, to say ‘yes, and…’, I have inadvertently encouraged some people’s neediness, which is not doing them or me a favour. I am spreading myself too thin as a result. I’m going to explore, out loud, what I might do about this.

Vignettes:
Coming up soon, vignettes #4 and #5.

Blog-Hosted Conversations: Plan is for 30-minute conversations, once a week, on the subject of identifying and acquiring the essential skills and relationships we need to be models of a better way to live, and what those models might look like. I’ve recorded some practice podcasts, readings of my own works just to try out the new medium, but I’m not happy with them. I’m also unhappy with the quality of recent Skype calls — too many dropped calls, lost sentences and strange audio artifacts to make a pleasant listening experience. Need to find a better way.

Open Thread Question:

I’ve been thinking about ideas that have profoundly changed my way of thinking. For the most part, they met three criteria:

  1. They could be captured reasonably succinctly (so they were memorable and infectious, fun to talk about),
  2. They were waiting for me to discover, to be ready for them (until I was ready, they would just have bounced off, not registered with me at all), and
  3. They were not obvious — except perhaps in retrospect (though they may have been cleverly worded and intuitively appealing, I only realized their real importance after thinking about them, sometimes for a long time.

Some of these ideas were 100% someone else’s e.g. “There’s no such thing as a dragon“, and just resonated with me, my worldview and where I was in my thinking. Some of them were ‘mine’ in the sense that they were syntheses of others’ ideas restated in some novel way by me, e.g. “We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun”. It’s strange that, to really change how we think, an idea has to be consistent with how we think, but just not thought of, or thought of inthat way, before we heard or coined it, and suddenly: Aha!

What idea(s) have changed your ways of thinking, and why?

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | 3 Comments

Saturday Links for the Week — June 30, 2007

LFPWhat’s Important This Week:

Hedge Funds are Next Domino in US Housing Market Collapse: With houses sitting vacant, prices tumbling and mortgage foreclosures soaring, it was only a matter of time before hedge funds, the absurdly overpriced financial instruments used by greedy lenders to try to spread the risk of reckless mortgages going bad, started to fall as well. The SEC is belatedly investigating. Duck.

US Supreme Court Abandons Role of Impartial Judiciary: The bloc of Bush and Reagan-appointed right-wing extremists in the US Supreme Court this week abandoned all pretense of interpreting laws and began injecting their extremist ideology into rulings designed solely to advance the neoconservative agenda. The rulings will allow bogus issue ads by moneyed interests to pollute the 2008 electoral campaign, prevents citizen challenges to massive government grants to right-wing religious groups, and cripples students’ rights to free speech.

China Watch: Fake veterinary drugs, dead lakes, and poison toothpaste: This week:

The Impact of Global Warming on US Plant Ecosystems: The Arbor Day Foundation shows how radically global warming is changing natural vegetation in all areas of the US. Watch the animation and note especially what’s happened in Idaho and N.Michigan. At least someone in the US administration seems to get it. Thanks to John Frost for the link.

The Great Biofuel Hoax: Eric Holt-Gimenez neatly sums up why biofuels will do nothing to increase energy self-sufficiency or reduce global warming, how they could wreck local agricultural economies, and why Big Agribusiness is lobbying politicians to perpetuate this scam out of simple greed. Thanks to Mike Yarmolinsky for the link.

Why Local Sustainable Food?: Local Flavour Plus is an Ontario-based organization working to certify local, sustainable, cruelty-free farms and encourage major retailers to buy from them. It’s a great working model, and needs to expand to enable consumers to identify and buy direct from certified farms and press their retailers as well. Thanks to the CBC’s Metro Morning for the link.

Thought for the Week: Bill McDonough at the TED talks (thanks to Zaadz founder Brian Johnson for the link) explains Cradle to Cradle design and how it can make businesses and whole economies sustainable. Bill’s newest project is a massive one with — wait for it — the Government of China. This should be interesting. Great presentation, and it contains thislovely ‘primary design objective’ that Bill presented to — George Bush:

How do we love all the children of all species for all time?
Posted in How the World Really Works | 1 Comment

Ten Mid-Year’s Intentions

chair
The problem with New Year’s resolutions is that they create anxiety, hope, and usually ultimately disappointment.

So I’m starting a new tradition — Mid-Year’s intentions. These aren’t things you want to do, they’re things you know you’re going to do. It’s a taking stock, a self-clarification of priorities, a statement of intentionality. In accordance with Pollard’s Law — We do what we must, then we do what’s easy, and then we do what’s fun — this list is about what you’re driven to do (not what you wish you were more driven to do), it’s about what easy/fun playing and learning activities you’re going to do. It’s about realizing what you’re becoming, not becoming something that you’re not. It’s about being more yourself.

My reason for blogging about it is that I think it might be revealing to my readers (and if you write about your intentions that could be revealing to your readers). Our readers would then have a little better context for understanding us, and what we write about, and understanding it better. Good stuff for a Friday, I think. So here are my ten mid-year’s intentions:

  1. Let myself continue to become more loving, more positive, more engaged, more attentive, more enthused, more appreciative, more self-sufficient, more open, more vulnerable, more resilient. 
  2. Make my book on finding and creating natural sustainable enterprise, for my readers, extraordinary, the best thing I’ve ever written, and start experimentally building the stuff around it — peer-to-peer entrepreneurial self-help networks, partner-finders, success stories, an entrepreneurial centre of excellence, a program to get media buzz about our society’s lack of entrepreneurial skills — that will make it the catalyst for change it is meant to be.
  3. Ensure that my next business assignment is aligned with helping entrepreneurs to succeed sustainably, so my book and my work reinforce each other. This is in the spirit of doing one or two things really well, rather than trying to do everything.
  4. More and more, teach by showing and by facilitating, rather than by telling. 
  5. Complete the transition to a healthy, natural, varied vegetarian diet of mostly raw, unprocessed, local foods. 
  6. Find an opportunity every day to make someone’s life less stressful, less needy, easier, and more fun.
  7. Whenever possible, spend time with children and animals, in nature and in beautiful places, in play and in spontaneous activities.
  8. Continue to live simpler, more ‘naked’ in every sense. Own less, owe less, want less. Make more time for things that are important by reducing the number of urgent things that ‘have’ to be done. Learn to say ‘no’ gracefully.
  9. Exercise more and differently. My running routine is immensely therapeutic, but I seek to expand it to include more varied and holistic exercises.
  10. Learn something new of value every day. This could be something practical, something insightful, something inspiring, or something that builds capacity. Something that makes me more useful to others and to the Earth. And practice what I’ve learned.

Only a few years ago some of these things would have been impossible, even inconceivable, and others would have seemed so arduous that I would groan just contemplating them (or feel guilty about not even trying). Now they’re easy, they’re in my nature, they’re what I’m becominganyway. I am so fortunate!

Now, what are your intentions? If you have your own blog or website, report them there and just link back here — your readers should know.

Category: Let-Self-Change
Posted in Collapse Watch | 5 Comments

Messing With Complexity

mpb
Photo of trees infested with MPB, from Canadian Forest Service
Bruce Sterling writes:

It’s both disquieting and liberating to realize that freedom doesn’t require any free will. Even phenomena as dumb and blind as lightning, wind and rain have what physicists like to call “sensitivity to initial conditions.” Deterministic chaos. The Butterfly Effect.

This means some tiny fate-altering sneeze of a butterfly can lead to a Category Five Caribbean-born storm pancaking the pylons and powerlines in Pensacola, Florida. Due to random whimsy, really. A hornet could do a hurricane just as well, or a housefly.

I reported recently about new research that suggests the cause of the collapse of the Atlantic fishery was neither overfishing and pollution (as environmentalists suggested) nor an abundance of seals (as the fishermen suggested), but global warming. The authors argued that the marine ecosystem is so complex that minor changes in air and ocean temperature can trigger major changes in species at the bottom of the food chain, which then ripple through the whole ecosystem, with dramatic, sudden and unpredictable consequences. ‘Unknowingness’ and unpredictability are the hallmarks of complex networks.

Now there’s evidence that the same thing could be happening to our forests. The emphasis in forest ecosystem stewardship has been on combating ‘invasive species’ like the Asian longhorn beetle, regulated cutting, replanting and fire management. But after five years and millions of dollars spent in BC and Alberta alone combating the mountain pine beetle (MPB), a native insect in Western highland coniferous forests, authorities have declared the battle lost. Billions of the insect have ravaged lodgepole pines and moved on to Douglas fir and interior spruce and other conifers. The focus now is on helping bankrupt loggers avoid bankruptcy and find another living.

They tried all the usual ‘complicated’ solutions: Clearcutting with monoculture replanting. Controlled burns. Spraying and pheromone trapping. Nothing worked. In the process, out of ignorance or opportunism other tree species were also cut down. The canopy cover has been lost. The fire danger of dead standing timber is substantial.

The real danger, however, is that the starving beetles have not only jumped to less hospitable conifers in their own mountain ecosystem, they’ve moved East and started to infest the Boreal forest. That’s the vast forest that covers half of Canada, from the Rockies to the Atlantic. It is one of the world’s great carbon sinks. And arborists say there is nothing standing in the way of the MPB devastating it, as it has devastated the mountain forests of BC and Alberta.

What’s going on here? Well, the entomologists say the MPB thrives when several years in a decade have warm winters and summer drought. That’s exactly what’s happened in the past decade. And many of the birds that eat the beetle have suffered inexplicable population losses. So the ecosystem is wildly unbalanced, and as a result already 9.2 million hectares (36,000 square miles) of forest is exhausted or severely stressed.

It’s the story of the Atlantic cod all over again, except this time instead of the devastation of marine life we’re looking at the devastation of a vast land area, and all the life that depends on it. All because one beetle exploited a small sustained climate change. The butterfly effect without wings.

So if all the complicated solutions don’t work, what should we do? The truth is we haven’t the foggiest idea. When it comes to complex networks, we don’t have a clue. We don’t know enough — can’t know enough — about such networks to analyze them and determine cause and effect. We can’t predict what will happen. We just don’t know. We’re helpless to ‘fix’ what is to us an unfathomable black box.

If we can’t fix it, we can leave it to the expert. Nature has been balancing unbalanced systems for billions of years.

And we can adapt. That’s what natural creatures do when environments change. My prescription, therefore, is radical and simple:

  1. We need to combat global warming with every instrument and program at our disposal. Contributing to it must be recognized and punished as the criminal behaviour it is. We need to radically alter our lifestyles to reduce carbon emissions by at least 90%, and damned soon.
  2. We need to adapt and become resilient to abrupt changes in our ecosystems. That means learning to live in a world without oil, coal, fish, and trees — and without the products (gasoline, plastics, chemicals, andnon-recycled wood and paper) made from them.

That’s what we get for messing with complexity, mucking with things we don’t understand. What will it take before we learn?

Posted in Collapse Watch | 6 Comments