Except there is a significant question as to whether chemo and radiation actually *do* anything to cancer, sure… it kills some cells, but how many healthy ones go at the same time, while massively damaging the immune system? Gotta fight *smart*, not just with the biggest baddest killing machines ;-)

Janene

How does civ (cancer) resolve it’s problem (actual cancer)? Fight! War! with all we’ve got, with our most powerful poisons and radiation. [i]Prescient…[/i]

Yes… it really is that unlikely. Most of our farmland would be desert if not for industrial imputs — and that is what it will become as the system breaks down. Without the massive output of agriculture, societies remain relatively small and harmless no matter how aggressive they may be, culturally. So while there may be small pockets of neo-civ, it will be a long time before they can make any sort of significant impact. Then, of course, there have been enough instances of civ collapse that we can look at what the survivors actually do… and apparently they build cultures rather resistant to hierarchy and expansion ;-)

tp

Is it really that unlikely? I can easily imagine–as civilization collapses, institutions crumble, population falls to the low billions, then to millions, over the course of decades–the remaining, poorly connected pockets of humanity will have a variety of characteristics. Some will, like portions of humanity at the beginning of civilization, have learned that their survival is based on domination of others. They will have learned, during the collapse, how to plunder resources through extortion, slavery, conquest, etc. They will attempt to dominate all their neighbors and grow as far as their influence can reach. They will control far more than the average planetary resources per capita.

I expect the monster will remain a potential, like a virus strain remaining in a weakened body, and eventually find the conditions to grow out of “control”. Civilization again–although it will probably start as a regional phenomenon, as it did originally. Maybe in decades or a few centuries, not a million years.

Sounds like you are processing some of the same thoughts that I struggled with after reading Jensen… only difference being that I have always known that the system plays the players and I had to reconcile the fact that some players joyously play along ;-) In other words, there are *some* monsters in the system that encourage its abusive behavior.

I have always thought that the cancer metaphor was the most apt…. it really does describe the system very well, sans intent. The problem with the eugenics metaphor — although it is very useful, Ivor — is that it incorporates an intentional driving force. And I don;t believe there has ever been any intention in civilization. Just mechanics.

One thing tho… I don;t think you can say that cancer replicates single celled “success” because it is always *not* in the best interest of an organism to replicate out of control. There are always associated costs to reproduction that limit it to a specific “stable strategy”. That does not mean it never happens, just that it is always evolutionarily disadvantageous. With civ, those disadvantages have been concentrated on those lower on the totem pole, externalized into the environment and directly effective in the form of disease and famine. But we have been (un)lucky enough to not allow it to stop us. And then there is Quinn’s idea that there is some particular meme in this particular civ that pushes us to continue no matter the cost, whereas other civs have taken the hint and fallen away. Is it simply the “one right way for man to live” or is there more to it than that? I still don’t know.

Another point, I still do not believe that our big brains *inevitably* lead to this place. I don’t think it became our destiny when we came down from the trees, lit a fire and picked up a stick. Obviously it *did* become a possibility, or we would not be here, but another philosophical thought to ponder is where, or what, exactly, (as if we will ever *know*) led us onto this possible path.

Janene