In


cartoon by Will McPhail from his website; click on image to view larger size

One of my favourite New Yorker cartoonists, Edinburgh’s Will McPhail, has published his first graphic novel. It’s just out, and it’s called In. And it’s astonishing. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever read before.

Like many graphic novels since the genre began, this book is not just a graphic novel. It might be described as an art exhibition with an accompanying story. Imagine if Vincent van Gogh had written a blog entry, or a poem, to accompany Starry Night.

The book contains a host of ‘chapters’ in the life of Nick, a scarily-familiar, slightly shy white guy who’s completely out of touch with his emotions and neither capable of, nor, at first, interested in, talking about them. What we get, instead of just the balloons of what the characters are saying, is extra text in each panel of what Nick is thinking and feeling (but not saying). It’s an internal monologue that I’m sure many, many male readers, and the women who know them, will relate to.

In interviews, Will says that the Nick character is semi-autobiographical, but that the events and other characters are just invented. This is a story-telling approach that seems to work well — all the characters ring true, and the dialogue is natural but still snappy and often very funny.

The ‘story’ chapters are all in black and white. But interspersed are panels in vibrant colour, wordless and mysterious, dreamlike, portraying what would seem to be the full-bodied inner life of Nick and occasionally the other characters in the book. They work on a completely different level to the ‘story’ pages, and strike the brain and the heart (and perhaps the amygdala, if you believe in that sort of thing) of the reader in very different ways.

The coloured pages stand alone, sometimes gloriously, as works of art in their own right, and I could imagine hanging some of them on my wall. Perhaps where people who know me, but don’t really know me, could see them when they visit. Perhaps on my bathroom wall near the mirror, where they could remind me who I really am when I get up in the morning, and have forgotten.

The characters include Nick’s family members (all more self-aware than he is, including his very young nephew); Nick’s new girlfriend; and a host of baristas. They go through some familiar crises.

But then Will hits you with the coloured art panels, and suddenly you’re relating to Nick, and the other characters, and perhaps yourself, in a very different way, the way you relate to a beloved work of art, music or literature.

This got me thinking about what art really is. I’d always thought of culture as the shared beliefs, sensibilities and behaviours of a group of people, and art as the ways in which that culture is expressed.

But of course art is far more than that, and to the extent it is usually an individual, sometimes even lonely, undertaking, it naturally conveys more than any group’s shared beliefs and sensibilities (how they, familiarly, see and make sense of the world). Rather, it conveys how the artist sees the world both through the eyes of the artist’s conditioning culture, and through the artist’s own, very personal lens — perspectives that can be jarringly incongruent.

And that’s how the ‘story’ chapters of the book (the world seen through the cultural lens), banging up against the coloured panels (the world seen from the character’s own, hyper-personal, unfiltered lens), struck me. Intimate, somewhat irreconcilable and jarring (in a necessary, shake-you-up, Starry Night kind of way), and absolutely raw.

The story has some hilarious and moving moments that made me laugh out loud, and it has its moments of ‘ordinary’, commonplace tragedy. But it was the coloured panels, not the story chapters, that had me weeping like a child, like I have not cried in as long as I can remember. And this happened, spontaneously, all three times I read the book.

Like all good art, In made me envious of the artist’s ability to convey so much so powerfully, with words but also, more importantly and viscerally, without words. I ache to be able to ‘say’ these things without the flatness and enormous effort and imprecision of language. I want to give a copy of this book to everyone who has ever cared about me, or might one day in the future, to let them know who I was, and am, instead of having to rely on my blog, which cannot hope to convey a fraction of as much truth, and which does so far less articulately.

On another level, like many of his cartoons, Will’s book is a paean to women, their grace, their groundedness, their capacity to understand, and to give, and to carry on in spite of everything. I try to do that with the female characters in my short stories, but Will does it consistently, pointedly, and accurately.

When I’d finished the book (all three times, so far) I wanted there to be a sequel about Wren, Nick’s remarkable, patient girlfriend. I suspect it would be a huge challenge for Will to produce one, but I suppose he could find a woman collaborator, and pull it off. Wren is so real, I want to know more about her!

I hope I can get a discount on In with a bulk order. It’s going to end up in the homes of a lot of people I know.

A couple more of my favourite Will cartoons below.

Posted in Our Culture / Ourselves | Comments Off on In

Trophic Cascades, Double Binds, and the Dawn of Everything


council of clan mothers in post-civ culture; diorama from Afterculture

It’s not often that a book comes along that so undermines my beliefs that it brings about a seismic shift in my worldview. Sixteen years ago John Gray’s Straw Dogs did exactly that — convincing me that our civilization could not be saved, and, eventually, that it did not need or warrant saving. Now a new book has come along that is persuading me that, while we cannot do anything to prevent civilization’s collapse, we can do a lot more positive and creative things than we think (or that I thought) we could do, and we don’t have to wait for collapse.

The hyperbolic title of David Graeber and David Wengrow’s The Dawn of Everything was apparently deliberately chosen to get in the face of anthropologists and archaeologists who have, for too long, been far too sure of themselves (at least in public) about the evolution and nature of our species and its place in the world. Its provocative and controversial thesis is:

The ultimate, hidden truth of the world is that it is something we make, and could just as easily make differently.

(I could picture John Gray’s brow furrowing when he read this.) The world may be staggeringly complex, the authors assert, and we cannot come even close to knowing it well enough to predict the consequences of our impacts on it, but that doesn’t mean we are doomed to continue our current nihilistic path to global homogeneity, obscene inequality, suffering, and destructiveness. The history of humans and civilizations does not follow an inevitable linear trajectory from tribal egalitarianism to hierarchical agricultural and industrial settlement to unsustainable and unmanageable complexity and hence ghastly collapse, they insist. The story of humans is much subtler and more varied than that.

Ultimately I want to explain how this book’s coherent, playful, and exhaustively researched and documented arguments have changed how I see our world and our place in it (including my own), but first let me step back and walk you through the six main points I think this 600+ page book tries to make:


1. How we got stuck where we are

The core idea of the book is that what has led to our civilization’s dysfunction (and our unhappiness with it) is not so much the inequality, destruction and hopelessness of our situation, as the (personal and collective) loss of three ‘basic freedoms’ —

  1. the freedom to move elsewhere if you’re unhappy;
  2. the freedom to disobey if you disagree with what you’re told; and
  3. the freedom to imagine, create and explore other and different ways of living and being

The authors argue that the loss of the first freedom can lead to the loss of the second and thence to the loss of the third. But they say what lies behind the loss of these freedoms is not so much things like laws, overdevelopment of land and resources, and property rights, as a severe imaginative poverty, one that has been conditioned in us by an increasingly homogeneous and demoralizing culture. This conditioned behaviour, they say, might be overcome:

If something did go terribly wrong in human history – and given the current state of the world, it’s hard to deny something did – then perhaps it began to go wrong precisely when people started losing that freedom to imagine and enact other forms of social existence, to such a degree that some now feel this particular type of freedom hardly even existed, or was barely exercised, for the greater part of human history. How did it happen? How did we get stuck? And just how stuck are we really?

The authors assert that we can’t know the answers to these questions, but they do speculate on them, and suggest these are the most important questions we can usefully be asking today.

2. There are, and have always been, many, and very different, ways to live in human society

Our narrow, linear, and incorrect view of how societies have historically developed causes us to underestimate the variety of forms of social organization that are still possible today.

The authors (wisely, I think) don’t talk about climate change, since I suspect they think it’s inexorable, but instead focus on their areas of knowledge and expertise — anthropology and archaeology. Their message is that our culture, and hence our future, is not limited by the constraints of our civilization, and that ‘ancient’ history is replete with examples of rapid, and sometimes whimsical, cultural change that created and transformed societies:

Perhaps if our species does endure, and we one day look backwards from this as yet unknowable future, aspects of the remote past that now seem like anomalies – say, bureaucracies that work on a community scale; cities governed by neighbourhood councils; systems of government where women hold a preponderance of formal positions; or forms of land management based on care-taking rather than ownership and extraction – will seem like the really significant breakthroughs, and great stone pyramids or statues more like historical curiosities.

What if we were to take that approach now and look at, say, Minoan Crete or Hopewell not as random bumps on a road that leads inexorably to states and empires, but as alternative possibilities: roads not taken?… People did actually live in those ways, often for many centuries, even millennia. In some ways, such a perspective might seem even more tragic than our standard narrative of civilization as the inevitable fall from grace. It means we could have been living under radically different conceptions of what human society is actually about. It means that mass enslavement, genocide, prison camps, even patriarchy or regimes of wage labour never had to happen. But on the other hand it also suggests that, even now, the possibilities for human intervention are far greater than we’re inclined to think.

3. Human advancement comes not from individual genius but from collaboration, imagination, experimentation, and play, over long periods of time.

The authors insist that innovation, imagination and discovery is not the territory of genius or new technology but of collective imagination, communication and incremental and serendipitous experimentation (much as how nature works):

Who was the first person to figure out that you could make bread rise by the addition of those microorganisms we call yeasts? We have no idea, but we can be almost certain she was a woman and would most likely not be considered ‘white’ if she tried to immigrate to a European country today; and we definitely know her achievement continues to enrich the lives of billions of people. What we also know is that such discoveries were, again, based on centuries of accumulated knowledge and experimentation… – the basic principles of agriculture were known long before anyone applied them systematically – and that the results of such experiments were often preserved and transmitted through ritual, games and forms of play (or even more, perhaps, at the point where ritual, games and play shade into each other)…

One of the most striking patterns we discovered while researching this book – indeed, one of the patterns that felt most like a genuine breakthrough to us – was how, time and again in human history, that zone of ritual play has also acted as a site of social experimentation – even, in some ways, as an encyclopaedia of social possibilities.

4. We are not inherently a violent and destructive species

The authors assert, again based on exhaustive evidence, that humans are not intrinsically what John Gray calls “homo rapiens” — destined by nature to kill, destroy and ruin — and that neither war nor slavery has ever been a necessary part of most human societies, even while they acknowledge these atrocities have been a part of many past societies.

Their argument for the myriad of possible reasons underlying the existence of war and slavery in pre-history and history is very complex, and they admit they’re largely conjecture and need further exploration:

War did not become a constant of human life after the adoption of farming; indeed, long periods of time exist in which it appears to have been successfully abolished. Yet it had a stubborn tendency to reappear, if only many generations later. At this point another new question comes into focus. Was there a relationship between external warfare and the internal loss of freedoms that opened the way, first to systems of ranking and then later on to large-scale systems of domination?…

Sovereignty, bureaucracy and politics are magnifications of elementary types of domination, grounded respectively in the use of violence, knowledge and charisma… Some ‘early states’… deployed spectacular violence at the pinnacle of the system (whether that violence was conceived as a direct extension of royal sovereignty or carried out at the behest of divinities); and all to some degree modelled their centres of power – the court or palace – on the organization of patriarchal households. Is this merely a coincidence?

5. Power has been manifested and exercised throughout human existence in many different, and often peaceful, ways

The authors explore in depth the connection between violence, freedom, slavery, ‘inequality’, and power. Power, they assert, in prehistoric times never flowed from wealth — not because there was no inequality of wealth but because wealth in those societies was valued only as its value as a gift (gifting being a most honourable human activity), and because wealth couldn’t be used to ‘buy’ power, or indeed anything else:

Existing debates [about freedom] almost invariably begin with terms derived from Roman Law, and for a number of reasons this is problematic. The Roman Law conception of natural freedom is essentially based on the power of the individual (by implication, a male head of household) to dispose of his property as he sees fit. In Roman Law property isn’t even exactly a right; it’s simply power – the blunt reality that someone in possession of a thing can do anything he wants with it, except that which is limited ‘by force or law’.

This formulation has some peculiarities that jurists have struggled with ever since, as it implies freedom is essentially a state of primordial exception to the legal order. It also implies that property is not a set of understandings between people over who gets to use or look after things, but rather a relation between a person and an object characterized by absolute power… Roman Law conceptions of property (and hence of freedom) essentially trace back to slave law,… [which endowed] the power of the master and which rendered the slave a thing.

6. Many past societies have scaled quite dramatically through networks and confederacies of collaboration and exchange, without resort to hierarchy, coercion, oppression, or violence

The authors go on to argue that it is completely untrue that “structures of domination are the inevitable result of populations scaling up by orders of magnitude”, citing many historical examples to the contrary, and add:

[It is equally untrue that] the larger and more densely populated the social group, the more ‘complex’ the system needed to keep it organized. Complexity, in turn, is still often used as a synonym for hierarchy. Hierarchy, in turn, is used as a euphemism for chains of command.

Large human settlements, they say, have historically more often been networks of collaboration and exchange than complex, hierarchical structures. They cite anthropologist Carole Crumley:

Complex systems don’t have to be organized top-down, either in the natural or in the social world. That we tend to assume otherwise probably tells us more about ourselves than the people or phenomena that we’re studying.

Many early cities operated, they say, “as civic experiments on a grand scale, which frequently lacked the expected features of administrative hierarchy and authoritarian rule.” Early civilizations were often coalitions or confederacies over large areas, and the emergence of more concentrated confederacies may have had more to do with limitations on space for expansion than anything else. Warfare, hierarchy, patriarchy and domination were not inevitable consequences of such confederacies, though of course they did arise in some of them, and the biggest unanswered question is, why?


On the final page of the book, they repeat a quote that is one of my favourites:

Max Planck once remarked that new scientific truths don’t replace old ones by convincing established scientists that they were wrong; they do so because proponents of the older theory eventually die, and generations that follow find the new truths and theories to be familiar, obvious even. We are optimists. We like to think it will not take that long.

None of this, of course, changes our current horrific predicament and (most likely) the inevitability of this civilization’s collapse. But it does open some interesting possibilities for new and unimaginably different types of societies both during and after collapse. If only we can shake the yoke of imaginative poverty, and our ‘stuckness’ in the current way of thinking — that our civilization culture is (at least now) the only way to live.

Why, I kept thinking as I read the book, are we “stuck” in this way of thinking that ours is the only way to live? Are we, like my fictional dog Lucky, condemned to keep returning to places and systems that abuse us, that waste our lives and energies, and that we know just don’t work, because we can’t imagine anything ever being, or ever having been, otherwise? Is this the only way to live, or just the only way we know?

Serendipitously, I have recently been reading about double binds, a psychological concept first introduced by Gregory Bateson, to explain how parents often (mostly unintentionally) invoke trauma in their children by framing their demands and expectations in “can’t win” terms — no matter what the child does, or doesn’t do, they feel they have failed, and let themselves and others down.

It occurred to me that many of those in power who want to suppress dissent and compel obedience to their authority, use similar means to paralyze citizens and “consumers”. Shut up and support and vote for right-wing Biden, or you’ll get fascist Trump. Buy our crap product, or be seen as ugly, stupid, or otherwise inferior in the eyes of those you care about. And if you don’t, your old product will break or be “deprecated” next year anyway. Shut up and take this Bullshit Job (or essential job) with its annual pay cut, absurd working conditions, and zero benefits, or we’ll shame you, starve you, or throw you in jail. In terms of the book’s three freedoms, this is simply: Stay, obey, and accept that this is the only way to live.

There is perhaps a similar double bind with climate change: We are persuaded it’s “up to us” and that we should not criticize mega-polluters or regulators because “we’re all part of the problem”. Or else we see that what we do as individuals is utterly inadequate, but are told that “the system” can’t change to address ecological collapse because it has too much inertia or too much momentum or too many interrelated moving parts. Or that tending to ecological collapse would inevitably bring horrific economic collapse, and we wouldn’t want to be blamed for that, would we? Pick your poison. So we just feel hopeless and give up, or turn to denial, or to faith in technology, or the rapture, or some other salvationist escape from reality. So we are paralyzed — whatever we do, or don’t do, is wrong, insufficient, defeatist, selfish, irresponsible.

The authors of The Dawn of Everything are trying to tell us we’ve been had when we feel this way. That it doesn’t have to be this way. Perhaps the current Great Resignation is a small glimmer of realization of this, of what Daniel Quinn called “walking away” from a dysfunctional and collapsing society that is no longer serving us, and which actually isn’t the only way to live.

It seems strange for me to be writing these words — me, the self-proclaimed “joyful pessimist” who has insisted that nothing we can do will make a difference, so we should (gently) just enjoy our lives for what they offer, and appreciate that we’re doing our best, and that hard times lie ahead.

Derrick Jensen talks about moving “beyond hope“, and that is perhaps the shift that reading The Dawn of Everything has stirred in me. Derrick says that, even though “we’re fucked”, we should still work to clean up the river near us, to carefully dismantle that dam that does so much more harm than good, or do work at a food bank or animal rescue centre or homeless centre.

But maybe, if we start to work and think together about what “walking away” really means, with genuine dialogue, imagination, and helping each other disentangle and deactivate the double binds, we might find that, though I don’t share the Davids’ belief that it will be easy, we might discover that we can “make the world differently”, or at least small and important parts of it.

If we’re discouraged, we might look at an ecological principle called trophic cascades. The principle applies specifically to food pyramids in the natural world and how small interventions in them can have dramatic, far-reaching and permanent impacts on entire ecosystems. A classic example is how the reintroduction of wolves into an altered ecosystem completely remade and rebalanced an entire forest ecology, even affecting the shape and channels of rivers and the forest’s microclimate.

But the word trophic actually has a much broader definition — it means to make thrive — and that’s the sense I’m thinking about now.

So rather than trying to control and re-form societies by pioneering new and healthier ones, what if we instead realized that we are just part of a more-than-human ecology, and that, rather than imposing some new human model on “the environment”, we could by small, gentle interventions (a thousand carefully-considered small sanities) unleash a trophic cascade, and “make thrive” an entire ecosystem of which we are a part.

It seems to me this is what the authors might have been getting at when they suggested we could “make the world differently”. We, humans, don’t make the world. We, all of the creatures living and being in it, make the world what and how it is. The play, the experiments, the imagining, and the collaboration that we all, human and more-than-human, take part in — noticing, trying, exploring, tweaking, studying, learning, conversing, imagining, playing — this is how we, together, make the world. It is not a design exercise — Haven’t we learned that? It is far too complex for that, too unpredictable, too unknowable.

So how would we go about it? How would we go about making everything differently, if we walked away from this civilization? (And yes, we can!)

I have no idea. We would have to decide this collectively, figure it out together. Listen to what the birds tell us, and pay attention to what the rest of the world’s creatures show us. Make some shit up and see what happens. Make it safe to fail. Make it fun. Dialogue about what’s possible. Dream. Forget about the idea of impossible. Start fresh. Challenge everything, playfully. Start over. Improvise. Break all the rules. Share everything, especially knowledge and power. And, in the spirit of the book, cherish the three freedoms, regained.

Perhaps the “dawn of everything” in the book’s cryptic title doesn’t refer to a new understanding of the dawn of how human societies evolved in the past. Perhaps instead it’s the authors’ whispered suggestion that this could be the time of the dawn of infinite possibilities, the dawn of everything that is yet to come in the human experiment, all the astonishing things we have not yet tried, or have tried and forgotten.

This joyful pessimist wants to know. Wanna start a trophic cascade with me?

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 9 Comments

CoVid-19 vs Humans: A Game of Chess


Drawing by Derek Evernden at New Year’s, a year ago. Oops!

The outcome of this match was hard to predict at the outset. Humans have fared pretty well over the last century at dealing with viruses. But the problem is, if you don’t keep practicing, you lose your edge. And compared to humans, the viruses have been getting in a lot of practice in the 21st century. Here’s how the moves have gone so far:

  1. Viruses: The game began, it seems, in a bat cave in China, in 2019. Bats, which have a natural immunity to most viruses, can have up to 15,000 different pathogenic viruses , each with lots of strains, and the viruses are constantly mutating. Some of the bats in one cave in Yunnan in particular*, seemed to have hosted a range of randomly mutated coronaviruses that had not previously been seen. The cave was near a station on the new Chinese high-speed train that had Wuhan as a major stop. So the virus’ first move was a novel one — a move never before tried in the game. But then many, many viruses are novel. Your body contains about 400 trillion of them at any one time.
  2. Humans: The humans, flummoxed by this bold and unorthodox first move, hesitated before deciding on their response. In this game, time is of the essence, and hesitation can be disastrous. The humans nodded and smiled to their fans, telling them this was nothing to worry about, it was all in hand. But meanwhile they were huddling furiously to decide how to respond. Under cover of their public display of confidence, the humans decided on two equally bold and unusual responses. First, the Chinese mapped the genome of the new virus and immediately sent it to scientists all over the world, so that a first vaccine candidate would be identified a mere week later (January 2020). And secondly, they decided to lock down much of a country of 1.4 billion people.
  3. Viruses: The virus had anticipated this, and was way ahead of the humans. This was an extremely transmissible virus, and it had the element of surprise on its side. The humans knew, from SARS-CoV-1 early in the century, that global mobility of humans had reached such a high level that attempting to limit the spread of highly transmissible viruses by closing airports and restricting travel was utterly futile. Back in 2008, the US DHS had even recommended that such measures not be even tried, as it would be a waste of time and energy. Instead, the public health scientists knew, it was important to test everywhere and everyone quickly and repeatedly to isolate all cases, and to use universal masking if the virus was transmitted by aerosol particles. This virus put everything into transmissibility, trading off for lower morbidity (it had lost previous matches with SARS and MERS, using a higher-morbidity, lower-transmissibility strategy).
  4. Humans: A combination of cockiness and ignorance meant that the humans’ next move was totally bungled. The public health scientists knew that there had been none of the preparation for a high-transmissibility virus that had been recommended a decade earlier, so there were pitifully few medical masks available for the public, and no infrastructure in place to test even a tiny proportion of the population for infection and isolation, so their early advantage in sequencing the new virus was useless. So instead, the humans responded with a feeble attempt to encourage, rather tepidly, use of hand-and surface-washing and inadequate cloth masks, an idea they ‘sold’ poorly to the population, and supplement that with ‘social distancing’ — which might work if the virus only spread via droplets and was not transmitted through aerosol means. They tried to convince themselves, and the public, that this was likely a droplet-transmitted virus — A fatal mistake. Worse than that, the political humans, embarrassed at how quickly this virus had seized its advantage and how unprepared they were, and wanting to believe the whole thing wasn’t happening, suggested that (a) it was probably ‘no worse than the seasonal flu’, and (b) it was the result of human error in China, so it was up to the Chinese to ‘fix’ it. Meanwhile, absolutely nothing was done to resolve the problem of grossly inadequate masks and tests. It was as if the humans were in denial that anything was happening at all. To “protect patient privacy”, most citizens saw nothing of the horror occurring in thousands of hospitals and institutions. Most human energy was now diverted to the blame game, and finding dubious scientists who would explain the virus’ astonishing early success away.
  5. Viruses: Thanks to the almost total lack of preparedness by the humans, there were not even enough high-quality aerosol-preventing masks for front-line professionals, so the virus’ strategy of high aerosol transmissibility had clearly been the right one to try. Further stealth was achieved in two ways: (a) a 21-day lag between onset of symptoms, which at first seemed usually rather innocent and flu-like, and death, and almost as long a lag between first symptoms and hospitalization; and (b) the majority of transmission was asymptomatic, so millions of people were unknowingly spreading the disease, and the virus was busy damaging 19 different human internal organs, including the heart and brain, in unique and subtle ways that would mostly only be discovered months later, or when autopsies were performed.
  6. Humans: Belatedly and inadequately, the humans acknowledged that this virus had more than ten times the morbidity of seasonal flu, and was far more prevalent worldwide than anyone had thought, and they introduced mask mandates, encouraged use of at least medical-quality masks (but not N95-quality), and introduced lockdowns where and while cases were high. It was the summer of 2020, and the tide seemed to be turning — cases dropped, and then so did death rates, dramatically in many cases. But then, as if they were determined to undercut their own success, the humans made the stupidest move yet — they relaxed the mandates and lockdowns. Almost immediately, the virus recovered.
  7. Viruses: Stealth had proved to be the best strategy for the virus, so it stuck with that strategy. Laying low for the summer, it continued its largely invisible damage to the bodies of the billion or so humans infected so far, setting the stage for up to 20% of the survivors to develop Long CoVid chronic ailments in, and destruction to, their bodies’ organs. And with its vast experience and spread, it now began to develop mutations. In September of 2020, when the humans were beginning to publicly declare victory, the alpha variant debuted and quickly became the prevalent strain. Two other, very different strains followed soon after.
  8. Humans: Psychologically rocked by being seemingly so close to defeating the virus and then undone by overconfident relaxations and lack of diligence, the humans again turned to the blame game, blaming poor health care advice (true in part, since most public health care research and most pandemic preparedness programs in many countries had been gutted over the previous four decades), blaming other humans (especially the young, the uneducated, the already-sick, and the old), blaming governments and pharmaceutical companies, and blaming others’ ideologies and the media that fanned them. Still there were inadequate and insufficient masks. Still there were absurdly insufficient test resources. So now, demoralized, the humans went ‘all in’ on a giant gamble — a vaccine would be found, soon, and everyone would take it.
  9. Viruses: The winter of 2020-21 belonged, like the winter before it, to the viruses, as cases again soared. After the daily death toll had dropped 90% in the previous summer, to the point a “Go For Zero” strategy was actually viable in some places, the humans instead again relaxed mandates and restrictions in the late summer and fall, and deaths subsequently reached record levels in most countries. Only the vaccine now stood between the viruses, which had now claimed close to 30% of the human population, and victory.
  10. Humans: The vaccine arrived in January 2021, a monument to human ingenuity, global scientific collaboration, and collective capacity in times of crisis. Although it had taken a year to test, this was a fraction of the time that previous vaccines had taken to develop, and these vaccines were novel too, relying on a different mechanism, rather than infecting the patient with a small amount of the actual virus to prompt an immune response. So these vaccines were also safer. And there were several on offer, so that if one underperformed humans could switch to another. This seemed like it would be the deciding blow in this match — the virus would soon be on the ropes. But again, the humans undermined their own success. Because of decades of neglect and privatization, the infrastructure needed to order, distribute and administer the vaccines was almost entirely absent, and it would have to be built from scratch. And worse, the political humans interfered and tried to discredit other ‘unfriendly’ countries’ vaccines and hoard their own for their own citizens. Still, the race was now on.
  11. Viruses: It was coming down to whether the virus could mutate fast enough to beat the new vaccine into the bodies of the remaining 70% of humans. Thanks to the slow production and distribution of vaccines, the virus quickly unleashed the delta variant, and cases again soared. This was especially advantageous for the viruses, because when cases were rising even as a massive vaccination program was underway, it played into the doubts of the vaccine hesitant and the fevered imaginations of the conspiracy theorists. Now, not only did the humans have to deal with inadequate systems for delivering the vaccine, they had to deal with a large proportion of the population who refused to take it. It looked as if the match might end in a tie, with half the humans getting the disease (and a significant proportion of them getting Long CoVid), and the other half getting inoculated.
  12. Humans: Trying to tip the game to their advantage, humans began to offer third “booster” vaccines, especially to the most vulnerable. There was disturbing evidence that, while it was rare and their symptoms usually mild, some fully vaccinated people were getting infected with the delta variant. The “booster” seemed to restore the vaccine immunity, but the real challenge was still the enormous reservoir of disease that those who refused to get vaccinated offered to the virus as it continued to mutate. A “tie” match was looking to be the best that humans could now hope for, especially if the game went into overtime, and with another winter on the horizon, overtime looked like a distinct possibility.
  13. Viruses: Human hesitation, lack of preparedness, and foolishly giving up on mandates and restrictions, provided the viruses with all the time they needed to mutate into yet another variant, called omicron. This was exactly what the virus needed to win — it was even more transmissible, including to those who had been vaccinated (though it was much less transmissible and had a much lower viral load in vaccinated bodies). Again, it sacrificed morbidity for more transmissibility, since this was now a sprint, not a marathon. Even with much lower morbidity it could still infect more people (and that is its existential purpose) because essentially everyone who had not been vaccinated, and some who had, would get the disease. By any judge’s criteria, that would be a ‘win’.
  14. Humans: So here we are now, in January of 2022, and it’s our move again. One of the moves we tried in earlier rounds is now, suddenly, not available to us: With positivity rates in the 15-50% range in most areas, sending people home to isolate after infection would so deplete essential services that they would largely cease to function. We still have a woefully inadequate testing capacity and infrastructure and a woefully inadequate vaccine supply and infrastructure in much of the world. Most people do not own an N95 mask (which are still out of stock in most places) and many do not even use a hospital-grade mask; many others use their masks improperly or only intermittently.

So, given continuing high rates of vaccine hesitancy, there would now seem to be only two moves left: (a) the massive deployment of N95 masks and their ubiquitous use everywhere indoors until the virus is starved of new victims and test-and-isolate once again becomes a viable strategy, or (b) resign the game, and cede victory to the virus, allowing it to spread freely to all except the most vulnerable (essentially isolating the most vulnerable instead of the infected) until it runs out of potential victims.

As ghastly and depressing as the latter strategy seems to me, I can’t see the former strategy working at all. It depends on a patient, enforced, consistent, effective and ubiquitous mask mandate that all of our experience to date indicates simply will not be forthcoming, either from us as citizens, or by those who are charged with enforcing it. A half-way move of asking people nicely to mask up all the time is a worse-than-nothing compromise. As the Chinese and other countries who have been successful at stemming the virus (so far anyway) have learned, you don’t compromise with a deadly pandemic that has already killed about 14 million people in two years (including about 1 out of every 80 people over age 65), and could well double that toll before the game is finally over.

To put this in perspective, globally, about 20 million people die each year from cardiovascular disease, and about another 10 million die of cancer. Most of those deaths are probably preventable, if we had the will to require and enable people to eat a healthy diet, and to exercise properly, and if we had the capacity to rid our world of the toxic substances that our civilization has produced, and the massive chronic stress of precarity it induces. We have, of course, no such will or capacity. Adding another 7-14 million lost lives for a year or so before the pandemic runs out of steam, will, I suspect, soon become a devil’s bargain we are prepared to accept to get over the tumult, disruption, shame, and psychological, social and economic turmoil we have lived with for the last two years. Though the burden on hospitals will be pretty horrific, even as we continue to look the other way.

When that happens, and I think it will come this spring (and seriously hope the additional deaths will be much lower than another 14 million), we will not want to hear the daily numbers any more, much as we tired of hearing the death toll from HIV after 1995, when it finally ceased to be the #1 cause of death for young Americans, though it still killed two million globally in 2004.

My sense is that we’re quickly running out of options, since we failed to take the actions necessary to bring this pandemic to a close at least five different times over the past two years. No one is to blame for that. This played out the only way it could have.

We have played our best game, and lost. Hope we do better next time.


* For those new to this virologists’ discussion thread on the origins of CoVid-19, I’d recommend you read the last (bottom, September 2021) entry first, and then go back to the top and read through the entire thread. It’s technical, but not hard to follow.

Posted in How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | Comments Off on CoVid-19 vs Humans: A Game of Chess

Several Short Sentences About… Seeds


image by Virvoreanu-Laurentiu on pixabay, CC0

I‘ve been reading Washington biologist Thor Hanson’s fascinating book The Triumph of Seeds. The book contains so many amazing facts about these little-studied (except for agricultural propagation purposes) evolutionary innovations, that they’ve prompted me to create a fourth post in my “several short sentences…” series about unique species of life (previously: sharks, bats, jellyfish). So here we go: Several short (and not-so-short) sentences about seeds:

  1. Seed structures are so diverse that it’s sometimes hard to say exactly what a seed is, and where it ends and other parts of the plant begin. But a leading biologist, Carol Baskin, uses this handy definition: “a seed is a baby plant, in a box, with its lunch”. The size and durability of the ‘box’, and of the ‘lunch’ have evolved to match the threats of the seed being prematurely eaten or destroyed, and the amount of time the seed normally needs to survive before it finds a suitable place to germinate. Hence coconuts (ocean journeys before germination), avocado pits (waiting for enough nearby water), dandelions (“over there will do”), and conifers (“right here is fine”).
  2. The myth that spore-reproducing plants dominated until the end of the hot, wet Carboniferous is untrue. Seeds co-evolved with spores, and have more recently prevailed because their means of reproducing is simpler and more reliable. The Carboniferous myth remains because the hot wetlands during that time, where spore-bearing plants thrived, were perfect for fossil production, while the more temperate higher-altitude areas, where seeds prevailed, did not tend to produce fossils.
  3. The first stage of most seeds’ growth involves simply bloating up the cells with water, often to hundreds of times the seed’s original size. During that time, they use a variety of alkaloid chemicals, almost all of which are now employed by humans, to inhibit cell division. Those chemicals, which also serve to ward off pests, include caffeine, capsaicin, pepper, many modern drugs, and some of the planet’s most toxic poisons (eg ricin, henbane, cyanide, warfarin), which have been used not only as human and pest poisons but also, in smaller concentrations, for their cell-destroying properties in treating cancers and other diseases. Only when the then water-filled cells have shot out far enough from the seed to resist the toxins, does growth by cell division (requiring use of the ‘lunch’, with its evolved customized mix of starches, oils, fats, waxes, proteins and other energy sources) begin.
  4. We can only guess how seeds ‘know’ when to start germinating. It is known that they can detect the qualities of surrounding soils, and the angle and amount of available sun even through feet of snow. It may well be that their means of ‘navigating’ their new environment are as sophisticated as that of birds (which we also know almost nothing about).
  5. More than 70% of human farmlands are planted with grains, all of them cultivated through selective breeding from primeval grasses for the simple reason that grasses are the lowest-maintenance plants on the planet, due to the ease with which their seeds proliferate, and they contain starches which the human body can easily convert to energy. More than half of all human calories consumed come from grains.
  6. Human digestive systems have co-evolved with the (mostly plant-based) foods we eat. We could no longer, for example, survive on the diet that our nearest neighbours the chimps thrive on, because our bodies can no longer break down many of the foods they eat; as early as 800,000 years ago we became, and are now of necessity, the “cooking primate”. Likewise, we could not survive now on a raw meat diet, because our modern bodies would consume as many calories trying to chew and digest the meat as it provides to us.
  7. Seed banks and agriculturalists are now planning on ways to gradually replace the world’s largest crop — wheat — with more heat- and drought-resistant sorghum, starting in areas closest to the equator, as the earth’s temperature heats up to the point wheat will no longer grow. Seed banks are so important because food plant biodiversity is now so impoverished that the remaining species are hugely vulnerable to new plant pests and climate change, so alternatives need to be kept on the ready, and are regularly being introduced. Seed banks work in tandem with the many seed-saver exchanges around the world.
  8. So much of the world depends heavily on imported seed grains that Lewiston, Idaho has become the world’s third largest ‘seaport’ for grain traffic (90% of it bound for Asia). This required the construction of a massive series of dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers to ‘quieten’ these rivers enough to barge the grain to Portland, Oregon. The hydroelectric energy produced by the dams was only a side-benefit and afterthought of the dams’ construction.
  9. Everywhere grain is grown, it is rotated with beans and other legume crops. Not only does the rotation enrich the soil and allow more and richer harvests, eating grains and beans together provide much greater nutrition than eating either alone. Beans are still the main source of protein in much of the world.
  10. Just as selective breeding of grains and animals has produced much higher-yielding human foods, the same patient breeding has produced most of the vegetables we think of as ‘natural’ crops (while drastically reducing their diversity). For example, a single nondescript coastal mustard plant has been selectively bred to produce all moderns strains of cabbages, collard greens, kale (by selecting for fuller leaves), Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, broccoli (by selecting for larger buds and shoots), and kohlrabi (by selecting for flat, edible stems). These vegetable ‘staples’ are all, essentially, human ‘inventions’.
  11. Hand pollination of dates and figs (which for most of human existence have been the largest component of our diets) dates back over 4,000 years. Date palm seeds from ancient seed banks have been found to still germinate 2,000 years after they were collected.
  12. Guar gum, a thickener made from a seed that grows almost entirely in India’s deserts, is so essential to modern industry that it now constitutes 30% of the cost of fracking operations, and its scarcity and resultant high price has forced food companies to replace its use with locust bean gum and fenugreek to keep products affordable.
  13. Bird beak and rodent jaw shapes can evolve significantly in as little as a single generation to adapt to changes in the prevalence and characteristics of local seeds and nuts. The seeds and nuts then evolve to respond to the birds’ and rodents’ advantage, in a never-ending ‘arms race’. Since transport by birds and rodents is essential to many seeds’ successful reproduction, they can’t be so hard to crack that the predators give up dispersing them, or so easy to crack that they’re eaten on the spot. It’s a delicate balance.
  14. Our skull shape and tooth organization and structure evolved to enable us to safely bite through nut and other seed shells (“the premolars, right behind the canines”). We instinctively ‘know’ exactly how to do this.
  15. Columbus’ voyages were considered largely a failure by his sponsors, since their objective wasn’t to ‘discover’ new lands but to find and bring back nutmeg, pepper, and other rare and popular spices. But what he did bring back, ají, aka chiles, unknown outside the New World, eventually became the most popular spice in the world, and are now grown everywhere. Chiles are only ‘hot’ in the sense they fool our taste buds, and are only so in wet locations where their ‘hotness’ is essential to keep fungi at bay. Birds’ taste buds don’t respond to this trick, so they can eat ‘hot’ spicy seeds with impunity. Chiles were actually used as an antifungal, preservative, and rodent repellant, before they were used as food flavouring.
  16. Most primates use seeds and other plant extracts for medicinal purposes, including pain relief, anti-inflammatory and wound and infection healing.
  17. Coffee may be the principal determinant of the era of social change known as the Enlightenment. Coffee replaced beer as the beverage of choice at that time (before that, the average adult consumed three times as much beer as we do now), and institutions such as Lloyd’s insurance, the Bank of NY, the London Stock Exchange, Christies’ and Sotheby’s auction houses, and the Royal Society all began as informal meetings in public coffee houses. Coffee was unknown in the New World until it was transplanted there in the mid-1700s. Many plants (such as citrus fruits) carry caffeine in their flowers, because it’s as addictive to bees as it is to humans.
  18. The castor bean, known for the production of castor oil, also is the source of ricin poison, and of Castrol motor oil, because the bean oil’s lubricating qualities are essential to high-performance racing car engines, and no petroleum-based lubricants measure up.
  19. Cotton is another plant which was unknown in the New World until a few centuries ago, but its journey didn’t happen as a result of transport by human explorers or birds. Cotton seeds actually floated across the Atlantic Ocean and germinated in the New World, two different strains in two different places, where it was then ‘discovered’ by Atlantic coastal tribes. It’s evolved to be the main source of fabric everywhere on the planet.
  20. There is no ‘direction’ to the evolution of seeds and other means of plant procreation. Both seeds and spores have evolved over hundreds of millions of years, but they are both relative newcomers to the propagation of life on earth. Sharks have been around much longer than trees. And some of the most ancient seed and spore mechanisms continue to be used by plants alongside very recent innovations. And they were both cosmic accidents, not necessarily the only ways for plant life to propagate. For example, orchids technically have seeds, but their seeds are tinier than dust particles, have no ‘box’ (seed coat or case) and no ‘lunch’ (initial nutrition provided by the parent plant), and they can take eight years to germinate. The tiny seeds form symbiotic relationships with mycorrhizal fungi, with each providing essential nutrients to the other. Had the climate been very different when seeds first evolved, the orchids’ means of propagation might have prevailed, meaning all the seeds, nuts and fruits upon which so much life (and civilization) depends might never have emerged, and what we call ‘life’ would have looked, today, unimaginably different.
Posted in How the World Really Works | 3 Comments

Random Walk

So I go out for a walk, in the moonlight. There’s still some snow on the lawns of the houses I pass. I make my way to the river path, and wander along the river, heading north. The full moon is so bright I can see my way along the unlit path, and see my breath, without needing my flashlight.

It’s never terribly quiet here, in the city, even at night, but in some ways that’s comforting. I’m much more aware of, and dismissive of, my many anxieties and fears that crop up regularly, than I used to be. But that does not prevent them arising, for absurd and inappropriate reasons, and occasionally transporting me away from my more usual state of equanimity. So the presence of the constant hum of the city, its sense of normality in the face of everything, seems preferable to the quiet isolation of my former home, where every sound stood out.

I wonder whether my incessant anxieties are a function of the lack of real distress in my life, so that, lacking practice in dealing with real issues as they arise, and moving on, I am more prone to get distressed by worries that are entirely of my own invention. Worst possible cases that never actually arise.

So there’s the anxiety arising, and then the rationalization and dismissal with the realization of its foolishness, and then the shame of not being able to control my reactions anyway. The feelings of foolishness and helplessness. Fears of suffering, of loved ones suffering, of things being out of control, of failure, of ridicule, of unexpected loss. I am so fortunate — “the world’s most blessed agnostic” — but knowing that doesn’t change anything.

The guy who used to run the hot dog stand in the cove used to spend the coldest six months each year in a small town in México, living with a family he’d met during a visit to a resort there, offering them a monthly rent for their small extra room, a rent that was an enormous amount to them, but a tiny fraction of the monthly rent he paid for his Canadian house. One year the owners of the hot dog stand decided to staff it with others, and the guy just disappeared. Someone said he and his wife had moved to México year-round.

I wondered if I could do that — go and live somewhere where life was cheap and warm but in some ways very precarious, where if something happened, you were pretty much dependent on your own resources, and on the support of people you knew. Such a different precarity from that of most Canadians, with our ‘health and social security net’, yet completely dependent on centralized systems, imported goods, a steady income, and specialists who do everything for us that, in many cases, we used to know how to do ourselves. I’m a slow learner, uncoordinated and not very good with my hands, so I suspect trying to live that way would be humbling and difficult.

But some times I long to try — to just walk away from everything here that seems so vulnerable to “system shocks”, so efficient instead of effective, so absurdly and ever-more expensive, and such an unnatural way to live. I often look at maps to see where I might ‘walk away’ to, to escape civilization’s bar-less Prison of the Privileged. Somewhere that, if my experience in a less-civilized world really went badly, would leave me the option of returning to the Prison, chastened and resigned to stop looking for something else.

Of course, there is no place that looks like an obvious choice — all my anxieties about despotic governments, unknown languages and ways of doing things, third world police and gangs, being surrounded by grinding poverty, human and other animal suffering, and my own inadequacies at being able to look after myself, and the fears, shame and grief those anxieties incite, immediately have me spinning the globe to seek some safer, less terrifying alternative.

Maybe it’s enough to at least get out and walk in the moonlight, where I can hear the creek gurgling beside me, and the occasional rustling of sleeping creatures. Maybe it’s enough that I know my life, with all its anxieties, superficial comforts, incapacities and incongruities, makes no sense. That in many ways I’m really only half alive, compared to those who live ‘less civilized’ lives, but perhaps that sheltered, anxious, inexperienced life suits me, my disposition, my conditioning, my perception of what is, and why.

Maybe it’s enough to have a theory about why things, and behaviours, make no sense, and yet they don’t seem to change much. We seem to spend most of our lives hoping and looking for something better, yet never either finding it or giving up the search. Seems like a recipe for unhappiness. The reason I describe myself as a ‘joyful pessimist’, I suppose, is because my life is so much better, easier, than I can imagine it could be or could have been. If I didn’t have such a ghastly imagination, I might be a much more unhappy person.

Human selves seem programmed, or conditioned, to strive constantly for something better, to never be entirely satisfied, and to never give up even when things are awful and seem destined to only get worse. That seems to me to be a tragic and unhealthy condition, one that suggests that human selves represent a serious and tragic evolutionary failure. But we can’t seem to help ourselves.

Pretty funny, when you think of it. Like the finger trap, that only squeezes tighter the harder you try to extract yourself from it.

Still, glad to be alive, apparently. The moon is full and bright, and its light shining through the trees and off the river’s surface gives everything a surreal, magic glow. I walk back to the apartment, which is called Oasis, stamp my feet at the door, wander into the elevator, and take off my hat and gloves as my fogged-up eyeglasses slowly clear. Home, is what it’s called. For now, anyway.

Posted in Creative Works, How the World Really Works, Month-End Reflections | 3 Comments

Dave’s Preposterous Predictions 2022-2025

In late 2019, the Swiss gnomes in Davos were asked to rank 25 global risks in order of their assessment of the probability of them occurring over the following ten years. As shown above, they rated the risk of a pandemic dead last.

Everyone’s predictions, including mine, have been so utterly incorrect over the past few years that most people, fearing ridicule, seem to have given up making predictions at all. Fortunately, as someone who doesn’t actually exist, and as someone with an appreciation that there is nothing actually happening and no time or space within which anything can happen, I harbour no such fears.

So here are my wildly improbable predictions for the next four years (even I’m not foolish enough to predict things over a shorter time horizon than that):

  1. Pandemic’s end: The omicron variant will turn out to be much less virulent than its predecessors, perhaps even in line with the IFR of seasonal flu. So even though we’ll still hear about CoVid-19 as outbreaks continue in some places, by mid-2022 it will be endemic and cease to make headlines. However, by 2025 there will be at least one new major pandemic, probably an HxNx virus emerging from confined animals, most likely poultry.
  2. US political upheaval: Democrats will lose Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024. They will, in the process or as a result, either (a) move hard left and embrace a truly progressive agenda, or (b) the entire left-of-centre wing of the party will break away, start a third party, and take most of the under-25 voters with them. But it may take years before the old Democratic party is subsumed and the new party again takes power.
  3. Ecological collapse: Each year 2022-25 will see more and more ecological crises, and not just those related to climate collapse, but also biodiversity collapse, loss of arable soils, water loss, droughts, and a host of other currently-ignored ecological crises. Ecological collapse, in this broadened sense, will finally be taken seriously, but only by the fed-up citizens as a whole (through many movements of large-scale direct action), not by governments (which will remain paralyzed and incompetent) or corporations (which will remain obstinate).
  4. Major war(s): There will be at least one major war involving the real danger of nuclear weapons use and/or biological weaponry. People who thought the existential risk of nuclear annihilation was history, will think again.
  5. Market turbulence: Inequality, speculation, rising inflation, and oppressive debt levels will combine to produce a series of market crashes over the next few years that will significantly reduce stock and real estate prices and keep them well below their current absurd levels for years to come. But the start of the ‘Big One’ — the permanent collapse of our industrial economy over several decades, will be pushed off by endless maneuvering, probably until the end of this decade or so. Expect headlines about ‘The End of Growth’, and finally some reckoning of what that means.
  6. New measures of well-being: The absurdity of policies designed to increase average/global GDP will finally dawn on the citizenry, and then the media and politicians, and that will be precipitated by data showing the start of a permanent decline in life expectancy, and in healthy life expectancy. So the new measures will be about well-being and the quality of life.
  7. New understanding of the nature of the universe: Breakthroughs in science will lead to the abandonment of the Big Bang theory and other unsatisfactory models, and usher in some challenging and revolutionary new ideas about our universe, matter and reality. Sadly, they will be both unfathomable and uninteresting to most people.
  8. UBI gets its chance: The first national experiments with a Universal Basic Income will be launched (probably in Scandinavia), and others will follow suit, when it becomes clear that this is by the far the simplest and most effective ways to address a host of social and economic problems.
  9. The collapse of advertising and corporate social media: As mountains of data make it increasingly obvious that advertising is largely a waste of money (and an unaffordable luxury when the economy crashes), media and businesses that rely on advertising revenues will collapse, and be replaced by media that use a non-hierarchical, non-corporate membership-based model instead. These will be local and diverse but they will be well networked, so we’ll get much more functionality, more tailoring to our information needs and preferences, and much less crap.
  10. More black swans: The crisis that most dominates the headlines and creates the most disruption over the next four years will be one that isn’t even on the radar in 2022. And no, I’m not going to guess what that might be.

Stay safe, everyone. More of the ‘new normal’ wild ride ahead.

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 5 Comments

Species Shame


photo of an Irish newspaper headline, by Underway in Ireland on flickr, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Tell the people they are safe now
Hunger stopped him, he lies still in his cell.
Death has gagged his accusations.
We are free now, we can kill now,
We can hate now, now we can end the world.
We’re not guilty, he was crazy
And it’s been going on for ten thousand years!

— Peter Yarrow, The Great Mandala

Two of my most popular posts have been about the culture of fear that underlies much of what is happening in our modern world, and much of our collective psychological malaise. In the earlier article I wrote:

You would think that compared to those who grew up in war zones or during great depressions, today’s citizens of affluent nations would have it easy, but we don’t — even in past times of crisis there was almost always an underlying social cohesiveness that served as a bedrock to enable us to “keep calm and carry on” until the horror ended. And there was a belief that it would end.

Not so today. I think there’s a growing, instinctive, subconscious realization that our civilization is nearing End Game, that “there is no future”, and I see a growing sense of anomie that disengages us from each other and makes us feel “hopeless”. Domesticated creatures like us, saddled with ‘selves’ and trapped between an often-troubled past and an apparently globally ghastly future, desperately need hope to function coherently. We need to believe, as past generations have, that with hard work and determination we can make the world better for their children than it was for them. Who now still harbours such delusions?…

Our stories now foresee no recovery, no long-term improvement, no stability, no hope. No future. When people are suffering and they have no hope, they tend, I think, to be driven instead by fear. And we are all suffering. We are living in the world TS Eliot foresaw when he wrote “the whole earth is our hospital”.

In my second article I identified the three main fears that I think now drive us:

Humans are of necessity a social species: We are physically quite weak and vulnerable (compared to most other creatures), and lacking much inherent self-sufficiency and autonomy (we spend a long period in the womb and another long post-natal learning period). Loners do not fare well inside or outside human cultures. We rely on each other to survive and to thrive, so it is not surprising that evolutionarily successful cultures are built on love and willing collaboration…

While most healthy tribes’ and communities’ collective effort is oriented to meeting each other’s physical and emotional needs, such cultures are also driven, at least secondarily, by certain healthy fears. I have written elsewhere that I think there are three primary fears in every human culture:

    • fear of suffering (our own and loved ones’), and the related fears of the unknown and potentially-traumatizing surprises;
    • fear of not being in control (helplessness, disability, incapacity, dependence, being trapped) and the related fears of social anxiety, lack of autonomy, lack of essential knowledge, and of “not having enough” (uncontrollable scarcities, including time); and
    • fear of failure and inadequacy (ridicule, incompetence, letting oneself and others down).

These fears are evolutionarily healthy because they drive behaviour which is cautious, sensitive, self-responsible, and responsible to the other members of the community.

But when they remain unresolved, and become chronic, and are exaggerated and fed by those hoping to capitalize on such fear, we become deranged, and start to become like those endlessly confined and terrorized in prisons, refugee and slave labour camps, factory farms, laboratories, and other institutions of fear and suffering.

Something struck me when I was re-reading Zadie Smith’s 2014 article on the “new normal”, when she wrote:

Belief usually has an emotional component; it’s desire, disguised. Of course, on the part of our leaders much of the politicization is cynical bad faith, and economically motivated, but down here on the ground, the desire for innocence is what’s driving us. For both “sides” are full of guilt, full of self-disgust—what Martin Amis once called “species shame”—and we project it outward. This is what fuels the petty fury of our debates, even in the midst of crisis.

I realized that the second and third “fears” in my bulleted list above are precisely what give rise to this “species shame”. Our reaction to feeling this shame is often initially one of anger — feeling shameful is an horrific experience, one that makes us want to lash out at someone, anyone, we can hold accountable for making us feel this way — governments, leaders, “others’ of all stripes. Because if we can’t blame our shame on “others”, our propensity is to blame ourselves, and, when there’s actually nothing we can do or could have done differently, that self-blame is absolutely toxic.

What the never-ending barrage of crises of the 21st century — almost assuredly civilization’s last — has done is to constantly tear open what Martin Amis called the “unhealed wounds” of trauma, guilt, grief, fear and shame that all of us, by one means or another, have suffered.

So what is it exactly we are ashamed of?

I think it depends who and where you are. Our politicians, corporatists, PR people and marketers have found it quite easy and convenient to invoke in the oppressed castes a sense of responsibility for their own ‘failures’ — for their physical and mental illnesses, their poverty, their lack of education and knowledge, and their failure to ‘succeed’ at becoming rich, famous and/or loved. So I think a lot of the shame of people feeling (or being told) they’re not good enough, has its roots in this encouraged self-blame. When that self-shame gets refocused on others “to blame”, we see riots and revolutions. But they rarely accomplish much of anything, and being left with no “other” to blame we revert to self-blame, and to shame.

For many idealists, the ongoing collapse of industrial civilization in the face of everything we were brought up to believe was true, and possible, is more important for it being ‘human-caused’ than for it being an existential threat to life on the planet. If it’s human-caused, we have reason to feel shame, whereas if it’s not, it’s up to the gods and all we can be expected to do is our best. If we can’t blame someone, anyone, even ourselves, then it follows, we’ve been taught, that nothing can be done. We trade the shame of responsibility for the shame of helplessness. Surely we can do better than this!, we tell ourselves.

The things we have been most upset about in recent years (eg the conditions in prisons and factory farms, our inability to defeat or even agree on how to defeat this pandemic, the decline of democracy, the soaring levels of inequality, the endless abuses stemming from casteism, racism and misogyny) have often aroused the greatest ire because they have a scent of “you (or we) should be ashamed of yourselves (or ourselves)”, an accusation that is so confronting and so damning it frequently provokes violence in response. Any reaction, for most, is preferable to the shame of admitting failure, incompetence, ignorance, or “letting everyone down”.

You probably know me well enough to know that I think such reactions stem from the long-held and -reinforced belief that we each have separate ‘selves’ in control of these bodies we presume to inhabit. Give up the belief in free will, control, and separation, and there is simply nothing left to be ashamed about. We are all doing our best, the only thing we can do, and no one is to blame.

Of course, you may be thinking, I’m merely displacing individual and collective blame, shifting to ‘blaming’ our ‘selves’, and, by further alleging that our sense of free will, control, separation, responsibility and ‘selfhood’ is illusory, a mental misunderstanding in our struggling brains, I have simply sidestepped the question of who’s to blame and hence who should feel ashamed, and what should therefore be done to/by the guilty. The ‘dog that ate my homework’ doesn’t actually exist. To blame our imaginary ‘selves’, I’ve been told, is as intellectually dishonest and self-deceiving as blaming other abstract, practicably unassailable enemies like ‘terrorism’, ‘Russia’, ‘China’, ‘the powers that  be’. Or other ‘invisible demons’.

They may be right, but as much as I’m inclined to doubt ‘pat’ answers to challenging problems (including that ‘there is no answer’), I don’t think I’m ‘blaming’ our ‘selves’. We’re all continually healing, and all continually having those “unhealed wounds” torn open again. What we do is all we can do, the only way our selves can make sense of things, even when we ‘know’ in some subconscious way that they don’t actually make sense.

Does that lessen my own, frequently-felt shame? Not one iota. Although I admit I have only recently been willing to countenance that it is shame, every bit as much as fear, that powers my self-blame and sometimes even self-loathing. Whenever fear arises, it is almost immediately followed by shame. How could I possibly fear that; there’s nothing there to be afraid of. How could I be so stupid, so weak, so demanding, so incapable, so dependent, so ridiculous, so disappointing to others who I care about?

But that is my conditioning. I’m just the dog in the stands barking fruitlessly at the misbehaving actor onstage, my namesake, my ‘person’. For all my barking, I’m helpless to correct his idiocy. Shame on both of us. Ahwoooooo!

 

 

 

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 1 Comment

Links of the Month: December 2021


artwork from the Cave of Hands, Argentina ~7500 BCE, image from wikipedia, in the public domain

In reality, the crisis [of CoVid-19 is] waking from a dream, a confrontation with the actual reality of human life, which is that we are a collection of fragile beings taking care of one another, and that those who do the lion’s share of this care work that keeps us alive are overtaxed, underpaid, and daily humiliated, and that a very large proportion of the population don’t do anything at all but spin fantasies, extract rents, and generally get in the way of those who are making, fixing, moving, and transporting things, or tending to the needs of other living beings. It is imperative that we not slip back into a reality where all this makes some sort of inexplicable sense, the way senseless things so often do in dreams.

David Graeber


COLLAPSE WATCH


the Thwaites Ice Shelf in Antarctica, now expected to break off and disintegrate in the next 3-10 years; image from NASA on wikipedia, public domain

The intimate loss of things we love: Zadie Smith writes a lovely elegy to the “new normal” — way back in 2014. Excerpt, anticipating perhaps our pandemic response:

I don’t think we have made matters of science into questions of belief out of sheer stupidity. Belief usually has an emotional component; it’s desire, disguised. Of course, on the part of our leaders much of the politicization is cynical bad faith, and economically motivated, but down here on the ground, the desire for innocence is what’s driving us. For both “sides” are full of guilt, full of self-disgust—what Martin Amis once called “species shame”—and we project it outward. This is what fuels the petty fury of our debates, even in the midst of crisis…

Sometimes the global, repetitive nature of [our response to climate collapse] is so exhaustively sad—and so divorced from any attempts at meaningful action—that you can’t fail to detect in the elegists a fatalist liberal consciousness that has, when you get right down to it, as much of a perverse desire for the apocalypse as the evangelicals we supposedly scorn.

The myth of renewables: The Honest Sorcerer steps us through the laws of thermodynamics.

When will climate resistance get violent?: Indi describes what it will take, and the short answer is — not much.

Jonathan Pie at COP26: It was even worse than you imagined.

Thwaites ice shelf is “shattering”: The glacier is losing 50 billion tonnes of its mass each year, and now it’s really falling apart. Thanks to John Whiting for the link.


LIVING BETTER


from the Memebrary

“Creating wonder in the midst of dread”: The extraordinary and prescient anthropologist and author Anna L Tsing explains the importance of art, writing, beauty and imagination in bringing about awareness and, perhaps, change.

Chile chooses leftist over return to Pinochet era: In a bitterly divided election, Chileans realized the danger of another right-wing regime at the last minute, and swung left instead. The loser, unlike other right-wingers we could name, was gracious in defeat.

Veritasium on potassium: The famous Canadian vlogger explains how the fertility of the depleted and naturally un-arable soil that half the planet relies on to produce the crops that keep them alive, depends utterly on our mining of potassium.

Daniel Schmachtenberger on social well-being: The brilliant philosopher talks about better measures of human well-being than GDP, and his favourite is, perhaps improbably, the ratio in a society between (compersion + compassion) / (jealousy + schadenfreude). In other words, the degree to which our capacity to take joy in others’ joy and empathize with each other’s sorrow, exceeds our propensity to envy and resent others’ success and quietly relish their failures.


POLITICS AND ECONOMICS AS USUAL


online meme — thanks to PS Pirro for the link

Corpocracy, Imperialism & Fascism: Short takes:

Misinformation and Disinformation: Short takes:

CoVid-19 Becomes the Pandemic (mostly) of the Unvaccinated: Short takes:


FUN AND INSPIRATION


this New Yorker cartoon by Teresa Burns Parkhurst was voted one of the most popular of the year; the top 25 are shown here. and interestingly, the majority of them are by women cartoonists

A thinker far ahead of her time: Leading German theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder explains very advanced principles of science, including quantum theory, astrophysics, free will, and the nature of reality, in ways that are comprehensible to the layperson, without being simplified. Here’s an NPR article where she talks about scientific theory; it will give you a sense of how bright and how articulate she is discussing complex topics. She takes on scientific dogma with enormous courage and intelligence. And she provides access to all her scientific papers supporting her arguments, and full transcripts of her videos. She also engages regularly and forthrightly (even bluntly) with other leading thinkers in her fields, including some of my favourites like Sean Carroll and Carlo Rovelli.  This month, she explains how accepting the principle of superdeterminism doesn’t require giving up belief in free will (although she believes we have no free will). She describes why she thinks we haven’t found the anti-matter that scientific theories say should exist. And she explains how she wasted a lot of time on an appealing but ultimately wrong theory about the connection between anti-gravity and dark matter.

Electricity doesn’t work the way you think it does: This remarkable Veritasium video about energy transmission is enough to make those nervous about EMFs lose it.

And bicycles don’t work the way you think they do either: Yet another fascinating exposé from Veritasium. Our learning about bicycle design has almost entirely come from trial and error.

Can listening to this song reduce your anxiety by 65%?: Some studies say this ambient music, designed to reduce your heart rate, blood pressure, and cortisol levels, can do that. I tried it, and it had no effect on my heart rate, but maybe something else was at work. Thanks to PS Pirro for the link.

Charles Mackesy’s engaging art: This video shows how an artist, with a few simple strokes, can convey character, emotion, expression, motion, and intention, and connect you with his invented characters.

Twelve composers composing: Nahre Sol mimics the style of 12 famous musicians, improvising on The 12 Days of Christmas.

Chat about The Dawn of Everything: I’m writing a review/synopsis of the book, but in the meantime here’s a video of an interview with one of the authors.

Lights out my window: The view from my new home includes the 100,000 Christmas light display around Lafarge Lake, a five minute walk away. Here’s what they look like up close.


THOUGHTS OF THE MONTH


from xkcd, of course

From Brooke Jarvis, reviewing the latest books on the decline in our healthy life-span, and on the right to die:

Behind every fraught ethical debate about physician-assisted suicide stands this inescapable reality: there are many people for whom the way we do things is not working. The right to die can’t be extricated from a right to care. One of the doctors [author Katie] Engelhart interviews—an oncologist in Belgium, where euthanasia laws are widely supported, and aid in dying is legal even for psychiatric patients who request it and qualify—tells her that America is not ready for such laws. “It’s a developing country,” he says. “You shouldn’t try to implement a law of euthanasia in countries where there is no basic healthcare.”

From Pia Klemp, the German biologist and ship captain who rescued migrants in the Mediterranean, as she refused a medal from the mayor of Paris:

I’m not a humanitarian. I am not there to ‘aid’. I stand in solidarity. We do not need medals. We do not need authorities deciding about who is a ‘hero’ and who is ‘illegal’. In fact they are in no position to make this call, because we are all equal. What we need are freedom and rights. It is time we call out hypocrite honoring and fill the void with social justice. It is time we cast all medals into spearheads of revolution! Documents and housing for all! Freedom of movement and of residence!

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments

The Books That Have Influenced Me Most


the quote is attributed to “Jo Godwin”

In Beyond Civilization, Daniel Quinn says:

People will listen when they’re ready to listen and not before. Probably, once upon a time, you weren’t ready to listen to an idea than now seems to you obvious, even urgent. Let people come to it in their own time. Nagging or bullying will only alienate them. Don’t preach. Don’t waste time with people who want to argue. They’ll keep you immobilized forever. Look for people who are already open to something new.

It’s been eight years since I updated my ‘Save the World Reading List‘, so I guess I’m overdue. Of course, since I know there’s no saving the world, its title seems a bit of an over-promise.

So instead, here’s a list of the books that have most helped me understand human nature, the more-than-human world, our culture and civilization, complexity and collapse, the nature of reality, and how the world really works.

Most of these books run counter to what most people believe, and want to believe, is true about these subjects. They run counter to what I once believed on most of them. In some cases I wasn’t ready to listen to their messages on first read, and set them aside, only to come back to them later.

These aren’t necessarily my favourite books — I enjoy memoirs and insightful personal stories, thoughtful, non-manipulative fiction, and provocative ‘big idea’ books like Elizabeth Warren’s The Two-Income Trap, Laura Kipnis’ Against Love, Joe Bageant’s Deer Hunting With Jesus, and James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds. I read, as often as possible, for fun.

In contrast, few of the books on this list were enjoyable to read, and most were hard slogging. But something draws me to books with well-researched, novel ideas about the big questions: What might become of us? How does the world work, and how did it get so fucked up? What might we learn from other cultures and creatures about living comfortably and usefully and sustainably in this world? And underneath it all, do we have free will, and what is the nature of ‘reality’ anyway? How are we to make sense of this world, in all its staggering and terrible beauty?

Over the years I have outgrown books with prescriptions. The books on this list appreciate complexity and don’t presume to tell us how we should live or what we should do. They’re listed in roughly the order I first encountered them; links are mostly to my synopses of them:

Dave’s ‘Making Sense of the World’ Reading List

Title Author Subject
1 Full House Steven Jay Gould Evolution, complexity, and the nature of reality
2 Beginning Again David Ehrenfeld Collapse
3 Rogue Primate John Livingston Human nature
4 Extinction Michael Boulter Evolution and extinction
5 The Other Side of Eden Hugh Brody Indigenous cultures
6 The Wealth of Man Peter Jay Prehistoric cultures
7 The Long Emergency James Kunstler Collapse
8 An Elephant Crack-up and The Wauchula Woods Accord Charles Siebert The more-than-human world under stress
9 Figments of Reality Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen Human nature, reality, the self and free will
10 Beyond Civilization and The Story of B Daniel Quinn Human nature, culture and collapse
11 A Language Older Than Words Derrick Jensen Human nature, trauma and civilization
12 The Spell of the Sensuous David Abram The more-than-human world
13 The Triple Helix and Biology as Ideology Richard Lewontin Evolution, human nature and the nature of reality
14 Biomimicry Janine Benyus The more-than-human world
15 Requiem for a Species Clive Hamilton Collapse
16 Against the Grain Richard Manning Evolution, agriculture and collapse
17 The Logic of Sufficiency Thomas Princen Alternative economies
18 A Short History of Progress Ronald Wright Evolution, human nature, civilization and collapse
19 Straw Dogs  and The Silence of Animals John Gray Human nature, culture, evolution and collapse
20 The Dark Mountain Manifesto Dougald Hine and Paul Kingsnorth Human nature, culture, art, and collapse
21 H is for Hawk Helen Macdonald Human nature, and the more-than-human world
22 The Origin of Consciousness Julian Jaynes Human nature, the self, evolution, and free will
23 Learning to Die in the Anthropocene Roy Scranton Human nature and collapse
24 The Secret History of Kindness Melissa Holbrook Pierson Human nature, the self, free will, conditioning, evolution and the more- than-human world
25 The Mushroom at the End of the World Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing Evolution, collapse and alternative economies
26 The Doughnut Economy Kate Raworth Ecology and economy; a balancing act
27 Behave Robert Sapolsky Human nature, evolution, free will, the self, and the more-than-human world
28 Caste Isabel Wilkerson Human nature, evolution, culture, and hierarchy
29 (on Managing Complexity) —videos 1 and 2 Dave Snowden Complexity and sensemaking
30 (on Effective Thinking and Dialogue) — video Daniel Schmachtenberger Critical thinking, sensemaking, and dialogue
31 (on Radical Non-duality) — video transcripts 1 and 2 Tony Parsons Self, free will and the nature of reality

I am in the process of reading The Dawn of Everything by David Graeber and David Wengrow, and may well add it to this list.

I am aware that all but five of these books are by white males, and I’m not sure what to make of that except to ponder whether, and why, white males seem most prone to write (and read) difficult, pessimistic books on ‘big arc’ subjects we can do nothing about.

I am hoping that one day soon books will replace the videos on the subjects in the last three slots on this list, but for now the videos will have to be the placeholders.

 

Posted in Collapse Watch, How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 3 Comments

Why Are We Drawn to Stories That Serve Us Badly?

The cognitive bias codex from wikipedia; if you want to print it out so it’s legible and useful, print the original over four letter-sized pages and paste them together (my printout is taped, tellingly perhaps, over my rarely-used TV). The model was developed by John Manoogian III and refined by Buster Benson; the online version includes links by TillmanR to the wikipedia articles explaining each bias.

Humans learn in a variety of ways: We learn by watching others, and seeing what happens. We learn from demonstration, and explanation. We learn from practice — trial and error, learning from our mistakes.

But one of the ‘stickiest’ ways we learn — by which I mean one of the ways our learning stays with us over time, even in the face of evidence that undermines what we think we’ve learned — is by listening to stories.

We are highly vulnerable to the messages of stories because their point of view, and their bias, is rarely right in our face. When we listen to a story and ‘relate’ to it, we imagine we are free to draw our own conclusions. To this extent, stories are subversive.

But worse than that, stories can be and often are manipulative. A story is often a sales pitch — hence our attraction to testimonials and ‘independent’ ratings of products and services. We are already predisposed to buy, and are looking for confirmation. If we read a bad review, that disposition can quickly slew 180º, as we look for confirmation of that story instead.

This manipulation employs, sometimes not even consciously, a whole bag of tricks that exploit our vulnerability to many cognitive biases. These biases are baked into our human DNA and our artifacts and processes, including our languages. Many of these biases seem to enhance the survival of our species, by simplifying learning and decision-making, making us more comfortable with what we’re facing, and drawing us together (since we can’t survive alone). Our brains are interested in what can help us do this, and the ‘truth’ — what’s ‘real’ and what’s really happening — seems to be of secondary importance.

And these biases show up, in spades, in our stories. Read through the explanations of these biases and it’s easy to find obvious examples where stories have exploited each of them.

At a retreat a few years ago, put on by Dark Mountain founders Dougald Hine and Paul Kingsnorth (yes, the irony), one of the things we worked on was a harvest of modern myths, some of them directly contradicting others. Note that myths aren’t necessarily wrong — a myth is any story believed collectively by a significant number or group of people. It’s not hard to understand why people hold to these myths, for the three reasons cited above (ease of action, comfort/reassurance, and social cohesion). We want to believe the stories of our peeps.

I largely gave up watching TV and going to films (and reading a lot of fiction and non-fictional “analysis” that was poorly supported) a few years ago. I just couldn’t get past the whoppers we were being asked to swallow.

The most popular movies always seem to be about (fictional or historic) heroic individuals who overcome ridiculous obstacles and horrific, ruthless enemies and prevail as models for us all. Or they’re about horror movie baddies who cannot be killed. Or they’re dramas and “suspense” movies about suffering — to make us feel better about our own lot by comparison? Or they’re comedies that belittle others, so that presumably we feel better about ourselves. Or they’re documentaries with magical, simplistic “we all just need to…” prescriptions at the end. Awful, manipulative stories, all of them.

And they all seem to have one-dimensional (slightly flawed hero/wronged villain) characters and a standard myth plot about inevitable struggle and inevitable progress. Why do we keep falling for these fictions? Why don’t we like movies and novels that present the world as it really is, in all its complexity and uncertainty and directionlessness, and which help us learn about the world and history and human nature, and imagine possibilities?

Why are we drawn to stories that serve us badly?

I don’t know the answer to this question, but I have some thoughts about
“wrong answers” to it. I don’t think it’s because humans are stupid. And while I think we have been (for understandable reasons) dumbed down and deprived of the opportunity to practice critical thinking and other skills and capacities, and to acquire relevant knowledge of history and science, I don’t think it’s this lack of skill, knowledge and practice that underlies our attraction to stories that serve us badly.

And although we’ve been brainwashed, propagandized and manipulated into believing falsehoods and half-truths because that serves the vested interests of the rich and powerful, I don’t even think it’s because of this that we’re attracted to, and buy, stories that serve us badly.

Most of my life I was attracted to such stories. My blog is full of utter nonsense that I once believed passionately, especially in the early years when the blog was almost embarrassingly popular. Why was I attracted to such stories as: 9/11 being “conceivably” an inside job, or the “dangerous” use of squalene in vaccines for the military simply because it was cheaper to use GIs as guinea pigs? Or business “management theories” based on “case studies” that were just fanciful inventions that had no more rigour or credibility than a slick PR piece?

Why did I want to believe these things were actually or probably true? Because they were novel and had a “ring” of truth? Because they flew in the face of “conventional wisdom” that I suspected was wrong, or boring? Because I fancied myself as counter-culture, or as an ersatz investigative journalist exposing the important truth of the lies of the rich and powerful?

I have no idea. It’s very possible that some of the things I believe fervently and write about now are dead wrong, or half-truths, and that by writing about them and believing them, I’m misleading myself and doing a disservice to my readers (the few who remain despite my changing my mind so dramatically on so many subjects).

Maybe our propensity to love and believe stories regardless of their truth or value, is just an evolved trait of the human animal that seems to have survived, even though it’s now a maladaptation that serves us badly, like our appendices or our fondness for sugars and salt.

All I know is that we humans seem drawn to, and even addicted to, our stories, and the beliefs they instil and reinforce in us, even when those stories and beliefs lead us astray. Much of our modern “civilized” world would probably not exist if we didn’t buy into all the stories that enable it to continue, that keep us doing what we do, even when it makes no sense.

Without our stories, where would we be?

Posted in How the World Really Works, Our Culture / Ourselves | 2 Comments